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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #701
  • May 8, 2021 1:57pm May 8, 2021 1:57pm
Quote
So since 2013 you still can't understand how to calculate ATR for 5 digit and 3 digit pairs, but you use word "should" and can give advice to traders?
Hmmmm. Never used an indicator. Where have I given advice (maybe 5 times and that too good advice on things I know about)?

Did you understand the difference between pips and points?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #702
  • Edited 2:55pm May 8, 2021 2:30pm | Edited 2:55pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Patterns appear (fixed) ONLY when you see historical data on your charts. That's the brutal truth. Even 0.1 lot, your lot, can reverse the market. And you must trade incomplete setup, yes or yes? Then it is NOT the pattern YET. p.s. I just can't understand why people want to earn a lot from market, but they can't spend 30$ to create simple EA to check that all that "simple" strategies are not working. Instead of making that they will waste the time dicsussing another one "simple forex strategy". {quote} So since 2013 you still can't understand...
When I say price pattern, I mean everyday price behaviour and zones market tends to move to everyday. I'm not talking about any strategies that include indicators or EAs. Clear chart (certainly with historical data) can give you the direction and height of movement for everyday and long-term period. It's all about history.
  • #703
  • May 8, 2021 2:44pm May 8, 2021 2:44pm
Quoting maverick2017
Did you understand the difference between pips and points?
No. Why I should? In 19 century there were a lot of things we don't have to know in 2021. For example how to use horses. I use a car. And I use points from mt5. And I'll never use mt4, windows 95, horse and sword.
Observer effect
  • #704
  • May 8, 2021 2:48pm May 8, 2021 2:48pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Now. Why I should? In 19 century there were a lot of things we don't have to know. For example how to use horses. I use a car. And I use points from mt5. And I'll never use mt4, windows 95, horse and sword.
Again, did you understand?
10pips in 5 decimal places is smaller than 10pips in 4decimal places. Did you understand this?

points is used in stock markets, pips is used in forex. Did you know this?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #705
  • May 8, 2021 2:56pm May 8, 2021 2:56pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} **Jan 2016 to 0.68
Oops, my bad. The A$ hit .86 in 2014, not .68. It hit .68 about 2 years later, as you stated. The point was and is that, in Feb.2013, Stevens publicly stated a desire to see the A$ at .75, then proceeded to take it down in 10% increments. I know my comment, that central bankers have nearly omnipotent power, is a bit overstated. But in terms of their influence on the markets, it's not. And it should be noted that, while they have nearly omnipotent power in the markets (ie, Stevens), they do not have nearly omnipotent judgement (Powell in 2017). They all have to exercise their power within the context of national interest and politics.

I think it is very obvious why the A$ would not fall to those dramatic levels in just a few days, and why it would take months to achieve the levels Stevens wanted. If it is not obvious to you, I recommend research and study, and taking some quiet time to reflect on the subject.
  • #706
  • May 8, 2021 2:59pm May 8, 2021 2:59pm
Quote
fall to those dramatic levels in just a few days, and why it would take months to achieve the levels Stevens wanted.
Because there are businesses which need to adjust according to the new rates .
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #707
  • May 8, 2021 3:11pm May 8, 2021 3:11pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Again, did you understand? 10pips in 5 decimal places is smaller than 10pips in 4decimal places. Did you understand this? points is used in stock markets, pips is used in forex. Did you know this?
There is no sense in your measures. There is no difference between 5 decimals, 3 decimals and stocks. The point is $/per distance. As I understand you still (maverick2017 Joined Jul 2013) can't understand it.

Sorry, but I can't help. This is too idiotic situation to waste time for.

p.s. how 2017 username can join in 2013 is another question.
Observer effect
  • #708
  • May 8, 2021 3:13pm May 8, 2021 3:13pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} There is no sense in your measures. There is no difference between 5 decimals, 3 decimals and stocks. The point is $/per distance. As I understand you still (maverick2017 Joined Jul 2013) can't understand it. Sorry, but I can't help. This is too idiotic situation to waste time for. p.s. how 2017 username can join in 2013 is another question.
Must be the English.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #709
  • Edited 4:14pm May 8, 2021 4:02pm | Edited 4:14pm
See where is hype and jump in. Some days ago purchased another portion of ETH. Today it is allready +10%. Some of my ETH purchases were at the price of ~1400 USD - now it' s >3800 usd. No leverage used - so I can hold long time and wait... Trade crypto without leverage and earn good profits. Don't know how long this crypto hype will last....

ETH will reach 10k this year.

But some huge retracements (even 50% might happen) in that journey. As nobody regulates crypto... there might be dramatic volatility. Therefore do not use leverage with crypto.

ETH will explode because folks will move $ out of BTC.

Se here ETHBTC...

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huge potential for ETH to beat BTC. It did it 2x already. "What happens once never happens again but what happens twice - definitely will happen again."

The big mistake for daytraders is overcomplicating and stuck in forex... there are various assets to trade... stocks for example. Good opportunities. Don't stick to forex too hard. Observe other assets.
  • #710
  • May 8, 2021 5:42pm May 8, 2021 5:42pm
Quoting le celte
Salut, I’ve been there since the 2000s, on Forex since 2005. There are hundreds, what I call thousands, of strategies here and elsewhere on other forums. As well as the best indicators (those of Mladen and others). Nothing, is winning. I mean, in the long run, nothing wins, nothing really wins. It’s incredible! Nothing Santé jf
Here mine wining strategy results so far..

I see other examples even 5 years good consistent results. Just keep learning and will find..
  • #711
  • May 8, 2021 9:47pm May 8, 2021 9:47pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi TraderTim Data & that foul mouth Peter (his tantrums may hide some genius he has hidden in his little brain - pity he can't express himself without being so bloody rude). Lets look at EURUSD on Friday as a classic example. Looking at the data I have streaming on that's days volume, 87% of volume was placed onto the market only within 16 separate one minute candles. That means the market was trading the other 13% of the days volume within the other 1424 one minute candles. Therefore most liquidity never sits on the market and we cannot...
Big players don’t trade much but hold 90% of liquidity - (Quoting Rick)
Hi Rick,
Where are you getting your data from?
I assume you are talking about tick volume that you typically see on a retail Forex trading platform.
I have had a look at 4 different data feeds. All of them show a somewhat different distribution as I would expect and all of them show a very sharp peak at the time of the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) news release which I would also expect. However my figures calculated from the data come out nothing like yours.

Taking for example volume data for EURUSD from DukasCopy (which anyone can download online), I get about 10% of the daily tick volume over the first 15 minutes after the NFP announcement and about 14% over the first 30 minutes. This is nowhere near the 87% you mention. Even if you have managed to get hold of actual volume from a market maker's (MM) feed, I would be very surprised if there was that much difference. Whenever I have looked at this sort of thing in the past there has always been a fairly high correlation (>0.9) between tick volume and actual volume for any given MM.
Tim
Don't Guess Test
  • #712
  • May 8, 2021 9:54pm May 8, 2021 9:54pm
For me, personally, day trading has many definitions. And with this, comes a lot of intellectual assumptions.

Case in point ....

- Micro analysis of Liquidity that is missing the understanding of the macro motivations and intentions will send you in circles. Why? You can't have one without the other. Each perspective is both unique and necessary for the other.

- If you do not understand the physical and non-physical elements of trading then you ARE speculating, so pack your bags and head over to the beginner's line.

- To be genuinely protected and therefore "successful" at your trading activity, you need to understand one very truthful thing - being successful at something requires a full view. What you do today MUST be able to be continued years from now, otherwise, you are just speculating. THIS is the only sustainable definition of an 'edge'/personal advantage/strategic alignment etc. If you don't "agree" or believe me then go argue with the world's best longest running traders. No not all are long term trend traders. they start with what's always present and always accessible and then go down the scale to super specific.

And so again, if this does not speak to you, pack your bags and change food order lines.

As for NFP and other news hot spots ..... if you have trouble reading structure and understanding the nature of the markets beyond the intellectual information, then you are speculating. And no edge can help you when you compound certain aspects like these ones in a small space of price and time. So what do you do? First, stop doing what others do. "The spoils of war are rarely seen by the people". Gauge what the market's views are and get in before (a little). If there's a good feasibility for a push or follow through, then after hype you can add in. I'm not sure if people have ever noticed but, published news events are not driving markets, they're driving people.

I have found the "heros" usually end up going home with no pants on while the hunter reaps the spoils of war.

I have also seen a lot of talk about banking and others elements. If you want to learn I'll tell you what I know, but with the agreement that while I know I don't everything I won't tolerate fools who can see they're out of their depths but still choose to have a opinion, as if if holds greater merit than 'what is'.

I've been receiving some pm's from people "asking" to see some proof of my accounts to prove what I know and all I can say to that is "you're kidding right?!" I enjoy my privacy and I respect yours so let's just leave it there. Everything I talk about is verifiable if you're interested in putting in the effort to research and learn.

And lastly, if you want to understand the bigger picture of structure, proper daily trading parameters and the influences, you need to stop thinking of it from a retail trader's perspective and learn to think like the other participants.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #713
  • May 8, 2021 10:26pm May 8, 2021 10:26pm
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} Big players don’t trade much but hold 90% of liquidity - (Quoting Rick) Hi Rick, Where are you getting your data from? I assume you are talking about tick volume that you typically see on a retail Forex trading platform. I have had a look at 4 different data feeds. All of them show a somewhat different distribution as I would expect and all of them show a very sharp peak at the time of the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) news release which I would also expect. However my figures calculated from the data come out nothing like yours. Taking for example...


Although I'm not RickM, I will jump in, seeing as I am the one who tried to explain it to him and "them" out there ....

He's sorting Futures Data to try and show comparative arrangements of participant volume depth to try and see 'what's missing'. Yes he's probably doing other things. But that's not going to help or the point. You cannot gauge withheld liquidity by doing it this way. Why not? The data is NOT there. It's not that I think I've tried EVERY way to find it, no. It's literally elsewhere. It's found in other areas of understanding and information. You cannot extract orange seeds from avocados. ALL you can do is interpret, speculate and assume.

The major problem with this thinking is you cannot achieve what you set out to do. Why not? Because what you're looking for isn't there to begin with. What I was trying to share with them, is NOT the result of what's there in the data for volume etc, it's what's behind it all. So no extrapolation of ANY kind will ever give you the same result I was talking about - it's simply not about using volume data and distribution, that's just assumption upon assumption in an endless loop.

Try these Posts for more insight -
342 - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13509421
354 - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13509900
364 - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13510427
365 - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13510439
394 - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13510664
499 - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13517411

* The only time I have a problem with people is when they want to exchange learning for "an opinion". It's VERY disturbing.

For those silly people out there, it's not about me, it's about learning about real life, not just what turns up on your device's screen and assuming that's all there is.

Have fun learning Tim.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #714
  • May 8, 2021 11:07pm May 8, 2021 11:07pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} If you trade with the broker which carries the largest volume in a day/week then you can get an approximate idea of what other retail participants are doing. Banks trade only with other banks. I'm thinking that speculators also speculate/track the deals which take place between two large companies which have deals in 100s of millions. So, if this activity, the exchange of currency, can be spotted because there are only some 12 banks (my guess) worldwide which deal such large amounts and the traders responsible for handling such an exchange...
Retail Forex traders have almost no impact on the market
Hi again Maverick,
I am not sure where you are going with these questions and statements but I am having difficulty following you. Perhaps you are trying to fit a whole lot of bits and pieces of information that you have picked up into a coherent picture. What I am about to say may not help but then again it may be the missing link to your apparent enquiry.

There is a common but false belief amongst retail Forex traders that a lot of the movement they see on a price chart is due to other retail traders. This is impossible. Retail traders make up only about 5% of total market activity. If they were all coordinated and acted together in unison they would have some impact but they don't do this. Everyone trades different strategies and different time frames etc so the net result can only be a little bit of additional noise. If you dumped a yard (billion dollars) onto the market at a quiet time it may move it 1 pip. As retail traders we are nothing but spectators betting on price movements generated by other players who vary greatly in size. I commonly use the term "Big Guys" to refer to the dozen or so large banks and their associates who probably handle about 80% of all currency transactions. This includes providing liquidity to most of the retail forex brokers. Thinking along these lines puts things into their correct perspective and may be helpful in forming a reasonably accurate mental picture of the FX market place.

I did a bit of a search through this forum and came across someone claiming that his one lot position could move markets. He and many others like him are simply deluding themselves. They have no conceptual idea of the sheer size of this market.

Hope this helps
Tim
Don't Guess Test
  • #715
  • May 9, 2021 1:42am May 9, 2021 1:42am
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} Big players don’t trade much but hold 90% of liquidity - (Quoting Rick) Hi Rick, Where are you getting your data from? I assume you are talking about tick volume that you typically see on a retail Forex trading platform. I have had a look at 4 different data feeds. All of them show a somewhat different distribution as I would expect and all of them show a very sharp peak at the time of the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) news release which I would also expect. However my figures calculated from the data come out nothing like yours. Taking for example...
Hi TraderTim

Like Peter said, I am using data of Futures then applying a ratio figure to calculate the volume back on currency markets.

Please read this post I placed a few days back in another thread.

There is no APPARENT difference in the ratio of volume on either spot fx or futures. If volume doubles on futures on any bar, the same increase in volume also seems to visually occur in spot fx.
I look at absorption and imbalance signals on my footprint chart & DOM from the futures chart, then immediately take the same trade on spot fx. Provided the setup runs true on futures, you will win 99% of every trade you take.

The futures price seems to lead spot fx visually by about half a second most of the time. Gold last Friday had a big spike around mid London session which on Futures was 4 seconds earlier. I immediately hit the Buy button on spot fx and was rewarded a second later with the same move on spot fx and a nice win. Generally what occurs most times is your broker will not execute your trade till it matches the move on futures - IC Markets failed themselves that night.

The main visible difference is spot fx has longer wicks and can bleed a bit higher or lower - but they move in sync in both direction and apparent volume RATIO.

Stop runs is seen to be only in spread movement in spot fx which explains the longer wicks. The reality of studying Futures data is you realise stop runs are just a myth. Passive limit orders are submissive to aggressive market orders therefore do not cause any major market movements. It’s the big players releasing liquidity to favour an apparent move towards a supposed stop loss cluster then placing order blocks to prevent further movement that APPEARS to show stop runs are real when it’s just manipulation.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #716
  • Edited 2:57am May 9, 2021 1:54am | Edited 2:57am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi Rick, yesterday I was thinking about our conversation last week, as a surprise NFP hit the market. I was wondering how the volume looked before and after the number was announced. I was focused on the E$ yesterday, because I had two buy orders (one at 1.2033, the other at 1.2045, stop at 1.1987 due to NFP), from Thursday, open at the time of the NFP announcement (we had several assessments of the announcement, all but one (a NFP above 1.5M) lead to a buy). So, prior to NFP, I had an entry order tp buy in at 1.2015, assuming a NFP of about...
Hi GEfx


Yes, most volume occurred during that NFP announcement and a few bars later. The liquidity wasn't any large single dump of Buys on the market but rather a machine gun attack on the market with multiple long orders.
Several smaller institutional bankers tried to sell against it but they got smashed in the rise.

But here was the second story of the night and if any player wants to know how to predict the markets, here it is.
Some big player dumped a huge Sell order right at the to of that first spike to HALT the upward thrust. There was no imbalance occurring nor was there any absorption seen on the charts so someone acted with a single bloody huge Sell order. (In currency markets, times that 404 contracts by many times)

They dumped a very large order on the top of EURUSD to obtain a 41 pip bearish drop.

Come on - SELL. SELL. SELL
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #717
  • Edited 2:34am May 9, 2021 2:24am | Edited 2:34am
Quoting simnz
{quote} RickM I believe in taking small and quick profits. That helps me in practising to remain patient and focus only on the screen. I consider trading as speculation and observe how the internal forces of supply and demand influence the moves and whether I can detect them on the chart . Having done this for several years, the detection of sideway moves is a skill I have developed. I just use a time pip box and tick volume as my helper and watch the dance of the boxes to enter and exit. I try to enter at a point where both entry and exit possibilities...
Hi Simnz

Here is one of my strategies I used in one of my EA's that was based on a price action setup from a simple engulfing candle. But lets forget about the setup because I was looking to find a strategy that fitted in with liquidity indifference I see on the 1 hour chart.

Strategy idea - On H1 when a large candle is seen on breakout, the probability of the move continuing the same distance (wick top to wick bottom) is over 73% by my data. Therefore the odds were good on breakout of price that it will move the required distance to achieve profit.
So I needed to find a TA setup that offered a large bar that starts somewhere near the breakout of price.
Strategy method - After looking at several PA setups, I discovered the Engulfing candle setup offered me the best likelihood of achieving my profit target.

So here is how my EA traded the Engulfing candle setup based on my exit strategy that it would likely run the same distance as the size of the long candle.

The idea was based on finding a backend exit strategy first that show high probability - then start searching for a frontend setup that could deliver this outcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #718
  • May 9, 2021 3:19am May 9, 2021 3:19am
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} Retail Forex traders have almost no impact on the market Hi again Maverick, I am not sure where you are going with these questions and statements but I am having difficulty following you. Perhaps you are trying to fit a whole lot of bits and pieces of information that you have picked up into a coherent picture. What I am about to say may not help but then again it may be the missing link to your apparent enquiry. There is a common but false belief amongst retail Forex traders that a lot of the movement they see on a price chart is due to...
Hi Tim!!
All I'm trying to do is take as much knowledge as I can from experienced guys like you because I have a hard time understanding the "do whatever works" line of thought.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #719
  • May 9, 2021 3:21am May 9, 2021 3:21am
Hi Rick,

what happened to this strategy, it seems like a good idea, do you still use it?

Best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #720
  • May 9, 2021 3:23am May 9, 2021 3:23am
This is not the thread theme,but what do you think about the chart below?
GXY opens at GMT15:00 and close at GMT0:00. There is sometimes GAP on GXY chart, and all gaps are always filled.
However, these gaps don't exist on GBPUSD chart. (Other currency index has the same gap, and always filled)
It's just a coincidence, or what?????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.png Size: 352 KB
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