The brutal truth of day trading | Page 35 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The truth about trading 164 replies

Truth about trading 9 replies

Truth about online trading...Is this us also? 5 replies

Pulos Bill - The Truth About Fibonacci Trading (Attached) 4 replies

The Bonehead Trader..please be brutal!! 47 replies

Attachments: The brutal truth of day trading
Exit Attachments

The brutal truth of day trading

  • #681
  • May 8, 2021 10:26am May 8, 2021 10:26am
Quote
You mention Level II order books. These relate to stock trading.
If you trade with the broker which carries the largest volume in a day/week then you can get an approximate idea of what other retail participants are doing. Banks trade only with other banks.

I'm thinking that speculators also speculate/track the deals which take place between two large companies which have deals in 100s of millions. So, if this activity, the exchange of currency, can be spotted because there are only some 12 banks (my guess) worldwide which deal such large amounts and the traders responsible for handling such an exchange of currency will be more or less the same. Also, these banks might not get the full order filled in an hour or so they will have to wait for the market to retrace and this will be an opportunity.

If it is 50-50 between banks and speculators then from what I have read here is taking the side of banks is profitable because they are almost never wrong.
^^please comment on this.

Banks have their own inter bank exchange system. Is it their duty to act as liquidity? My understanding is that only MMs are given the responsibility to monitor the markets and maintain the liquidity.

Quote
In any case all MM's, whether large or small are in business to make money. They do this by buying at a lower price than which they sell which of course is commonly know as the spread. They also “encourage” anyone to sell at a lower price than which they bought and vice versa. A practice commonly referred to as price manipulation. MM's also need to be competitive. If they get too greedy, both speculators and non speculators will take their business elsewhere.
This makes what everyone does as a trader/investor so ethical. Nice.

Quote
The traps are set for much bigger prey
You mean the ones manipulating or doing malpractices?

Do banks change their rates intraday?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #682
  • May 8, 2021 10:30am May 8, 2021 10:30am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Nice trade. Cluster is to the left, right?
Yes because i didnt saw what is right sidel
  • #683
  • May 8, 2021 10:30am May 8, 2021 10:30am
Quoting kk100
{quote} Yes because i didnt saw what is right sidel
Quote
10 pips is 10 pips weather your looking at 4 or 5 decimals (USD pairs) or looking at 2 or 3 decimals (JPY pairs).
No.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #684
  • May 8, 2021 10:32am May 8, 2021 10:32am
Quoting kk100
{quote} Yes because i didnt saw what is right sidel
There is no cluster on the right side. Only HH HL to the right, if you consider the screenshot.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #685
  • May 8, 2021 10:37am May 8, 2021 10:37am
Quote
USD CHF is 5 decimals. ATR is 28
USD JPY is 3. ATR is 25

Just check first 2 numbers after the zeroes

Hmmm. I'm still confused.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #686
  • May 8, 2021 10:46am May 8, 2021 10:46am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} {quote} No.
I dont know are you fucking with me or what,

Its left side, and it doesent matter only zoom out first and look back, my entries are accurate about couple pips,
look my entry watch 15 min from history you can maybe find a reason.
More you focus price and more important, volume, and not tick count.
you can see more clear.

I am not telling anything else because i dont know what the duck i help telling this, maybe because i got piss off about Peter talking BS and be rude for Rick. We know what we are doing.
  • #687
  • May 8, 2021 10:52am May 8, 2021 10:52am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi TraderTim Data & that foul mouth Peter (his tantrums may hide some genius he has hidden in his little brain - pity he can't express himself without being so bloody rude). Lets look at EURUSD on Friday as a classic example. Looking at the data I have streaming on that's days volume, 87% of volume was placed onto the market only within 16 separate one minute candles. That means the market was trading the other 13% of the days volume within the other 1424 one minute candles. Therefore most liquidity never sits on the market and we cannot...
Hi Rick, yesterday I was thinking about our conversation last week, as a surprise NFP hit the market. I was wondering how the volume looked before and after the number was announced. I was focused on the E$ yesterday, because I had two buy orders (one at 1.2033, the other at 1.2045, stop at 1.1987 due to NFP), from Thursday, open at the time of the NFP announcement (we had several assessments of the announcement, all but one (a NFP above 1.5M) lead to a buy). So, prior to NFP, I had an entry order tp buy in at 1.2015, assuming a NFP of about 1.0M, which I anticipated would spike the market down to below 1.2015, where I would buy to capture the recoil back up (if that does not make sense to anyone, please just ignore it for now). Okay, that's the set up, and it matches what I saw in market structure of the E$ that I briefly mentioned in a previous post.

Obviously, NFP was a dud yesterday. If you view the day from the Day chart, yesterday's candle on the E$, from high to low, moved about 121 pips. Three minutes after NFP, the market jumped 77 pips, or 63% of the day's range, and after 30 minutes of NFP, 84 pips, or 69% of the range. I assume most of that 87% liquidity you mentioned hit the market somewhere in that 3 to 30 minute window. With that assumption in mind, it seems clear that when big volume rolls in, it is really difficult to ride the move, unless you are already in the market. But once big volume settles down, lower or smoother volume leads to tradeable PA. IMHO, or at least my day-to-day mental model is, volume sits quietly until it's deployment is needed. On Friday, it was needed to reposition portfolios to the reality that the US economy, form a jobs point of view, is much weaker than expected, and may require a more dovish Fed, more federal spending of borrowed money, putting further pressure on US bonds, readjusting inflation expectations, etc. Friday's volume was supportive of the current E$ structure and moved that ball along pretty nicely.

From your post, I think the question is, where does liquidity sit when it's not being used for fx transactions? In my experience, it depends on which market participant you are talking about, and who's liquidity is involved. Can you elaborate, or perhaps this is better for offline.

As for upcoming trading, which this thread is suppose to be about, or brutal truths in day trading, after Friday's NFP FA, the questions I will be working on tomorrow as I set up my trading week, are: how far will this move eventually go? And when will the big guys square up Friday's move (which they will do)?

Edit: Acronym translation: NFP = Non Farm Payroll; E$ = Eur/USD; PA = price action; fx = forex; FA = fundamental announcement)
  • #688
  • May 8, 2021 11:01am May 8, 2021 11:01am
Quoting kk100
{quote} I dont know are you fucking with me or what, Its left side, and it doesent matter only zoom out first and look back, my entries are accurate about couple pips, look my entry watch 15 min from history you can maybe find a reason. More you focus price and more important, volume, and not tick count. you can see more clear. I am not telling anything else because i dont know what the duck i help telling this, maybe because i got piss off about Peter talking BS and be rude for Rick. We know what we are doing.
You know, that first statement was unnecessary.
My "no" was for pips.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #689
  • May 8, 2021 11:13am May 8, 2021 11:13am
Quote
Hi Maverick,
Market structure is the representation of what banks are doing to organize, manage and shape price movement.

Hi GE,
Are banks the custodians of the market that they have to organize, manage and shape price movements?

Isn't organizing, managing and shaping price = manipulation
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #690
  • May 8, 2021 11:51am May 8, 2021 11:51am
This thread truly amazes me. I don't see any gain. Banks, market makers, trading psychology, Losers, winners, and whiners, and so-called experienced traders trying to dissect the " Brutal truth of day trading" with complex intellectual explanations. The brutal truth is that you either win or lose and if you are losing take a Step Back and wait for your edge to kick in. You need an edge to trade right? If your edge is not working take a break and work on another strategy. The simple fact is don't complicate your trading. Find your edge and trade.
Trade to trade another day
  • #691
  • May 8, 2021 11:59am May 8, 2021 11:59am
Quote
Find your edge and trade.

No one talks about how to find an edge.
Something about an edge has been said in previous pages.

The brutal part is the waiting for the edge.
Another thing is the Time frame one uses to find edge. They should trade on the same time frame they have found their edge in. I found my edge on 1minute charts and shifted to 5M because of some losses and loss of confidence on 1M but that didn't help either, I lost an account. Then I thought that my results on 1M were better than my results on 5M. So, now I'm trading from 1M chart and level II and T&S and my entries are as good as I want them to be.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #692
  • May 8, 2021 12:19pm May 8, 2021 12:19pm
Did somebody pay attention to price patterns that repeats every single day? Pre-defined priorities (zones) of the market
  • #693
  • May 8, 2021 12:20pm May 8, 2021 12:20pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} No one talks about how to find an edge. Something about an edge has been said in previous pages. The brutal part is the waiting for the edge. Another thing is the Time frame one uses to find edge. They should trade on the same time frame they have found their edge in. I found my edge on 1minute charts and shifted to 5M because of some losses and loss of confidence on 1M but that didn't help either, I lost an account. Then I thought that my results on 1M were better than my results on 5M. So, now I'm trading from 1M chart and level...
Maverick, Let me explain to you the brutal part of waiting for an edge. I wait. it is like watching grass grow. So never talk to me about waiting for an edge. I wait. These are trades posted in the "EurUsd only" thread for the last 2 years, in fact, you need to have the patience of a Saint. The magic however is finding your edge in 1min charts to 4hr charts for me.
Have a great weekend
Cheers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1125.png Size: 106 KB
Trade to trade another day
  • #694
  • May 8, 2021 12:27pm May 8, 2021 12:27pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Maverick, Let me explain to you the brutal part of waiting for an edge. I wait. it is like watching grass grow. So never talk to me about waiting for an edge. I wait. These are trades posted in the "EurUsd only" thread for the last 2 years, in fact, you need to have the patience of a Saint. The magic however is finding your edge in 1min charts to 4hr charts for me. Have a great weekend Cneers {image}
Hi wave!!
Ok. It becomes more brutal when the market is choppy.

How did you catch 2 such huge swings? How did you set targets?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #695
  • May 8, 2021 12:30pm May 8, 2021 12:30pm
Quote
Did somebody pay attention to price patterns that repeats every single day? Pre-defined priorities (zones) of the market

Me! Only intraday. Not sure they repeat everyday but after 1:30PM (IST), most of the times market (NIFTY50) moves up..
You cannot predict the weather but can predict seasons. <-- quote by someone.

I'm working on pre-defined priorities. Cannot find a clue.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #696
  • May 8, 2021 12:36pm May 8, 2021 12:36pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Hi GE, Are banks the custodians of the market that they have to organize, manage and shape price movements? Isn't organizing, managing and shaping price = manipulation
Question 1: with the central banks, yes. Question 2: Yes and No.

Here is some history to research. I will use the AUD, since there are a few Australian posting here and they may appreciate this example.

In 2013, Glenn Stevens was the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In February of 2013, he started making very aggressive comments about the AUD, which he believed was overvalued (he believe it was valued at .7500; at the time it was around 1.0500). If you look at a chart of the A$ (AUD/USD), in 2013, you will see when Stevens started his "intervention" in the market, which was done by the RBA and supported by banks in Australia (after several public disagreements with the banks). In short, the banks fell in line with Governor Stevens. From April 2013 to about July 2013, the A$ moved from that 1.0500 level to around .89, all in a very orderly fashion. In July, the A$ began a pullback, and by October had moved back up to about .9500, at which time, Governor Stevens stated that the AUS was still overvalued. In October 2013 through August of 2014, the A$ moved back down to about .68. If you look at this PA (price action) on a day chart, you will see an orderly revaluation of the AUD. It happened because Glenn Stevens said so, and the market (the banks) reacted in the orderly manner in which they are required to act. So, is that manipulation? Yes it is. Is it legal manipulation? Yes it is.

This "manipulation" goes on all the time, all over the world, at at varying degrees of magnitude. When Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Phillips Lowe, Andres Bailey, etc. decide they want to do something, they have nearly omnipotent power to do it (assuming they have political support within their countries). Together, they make market structure.

Edit: On a personal note, I put both my kids through college with this A$ PA. So, I guess I should send Mr. Stevens a thank you note, and perhaps include a gift card to Starbucks.
  • #697
  • May 8, 2021 12:55pm May 8, 2021 12:55pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Question 1: with the central banks, yes. Question 2: Yes and No. Here is some history to research. I will use the AUD, since there are a few Australian posting here and they may appreciate this example. In 2013, Glenn Stevens was the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In February of 2013, he started making very aggressive comments about the AUD, which he believed was overvalued (he believe it was valued at .7500; at the time it was around 1.0500). If you look at a chart of the A$ (AUD/USD), in 2013, you will see when Stevens...
The next question on the topic above is - How can governor act or pass a law without government's consent.
If the banks refuse to act accordingly then?

If the statement from governor is so strong then why couldn't the currency make the move in 2 days? Who are the banks safeguarding?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #698
  • May 8, 2021 1:03pm May 8, 2021 1:03pm
Quote
In October 2013 through August of 2014

**Jan 2016 to 0.68
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #699
  • Edited 2:41pm May 8, 2021 1:33pm | Edited 2:41pm
Quoting Ihlas
Did somebody pay attention to price patterns that repeats every single day? Pre-defined priorities (zones) of the market
Patterns appear (fixed) ONLY when you see historical data on your charts. That's the brutal truth. Even 0.1 lot, your lot, can reverse the market. And you must trade incomplete setup, yes or yes? Then it is NOT the pattern YET.

I just can't understand why people want to earn a lot from market, but they can't spend 30$ to create simple EA to check that all that "simple" strategies are not working. Instead of making that they will waste the time dicsussing another one "simple forex strategy".

Quoting maverick2017
They should trade on the same time frame they have found their edge in.
So since 2013 you still can't understand how to calculate ATR for 5 digit and 3 digit pairs, but you use word "should" and can give advice to traders?

p.s. Let me guess. Thread will be ruined with messages about market random/no random.
Observer effect
  • #700
  • May 8, 2021 1:51pm May 8, 2021 1:51pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Maverick, Let me explain to you the brutal part of waiting for an edge. I wait. it is like watching grass grow. So never talk to me about waiting for an edge. I wait. These are trades posted in the "EurUsd only" thread for the last 2 years, in fact, you need to have the patience of a Saint. The magic however is finding your edge in 1min charts to 4hr charts for me. Have a great weekend Cheers {image}
Thoose arrows look good
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
0 traders viewing now