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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #581
  • May 4, 2021 7:45pm May 4, 2021 7:45pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Peter I have no doubt you have placed some good posts on Forex factory (I like 3 posts). I just believe most readers only want to focus about 30 seconds of their time on any post as no one wants to spend / waste more time because of fear. They fear wasting their time on a post that turns out to be garbage. Some of your posts would take 5 minutes or more to get that WTFWTA What The F... Was That About


RIck,

I will respond by saying what I have always said - the people who really want to learn will learn - this is relating to all areas not just trading as a topic, The rest are just coasters who have their own motivations for being involved in this site or trading overall. I have no doubt there are people who do and do not understand the things that are said, but really, do I need to setup a preschool space for people... or are they prepared to take proper responsibility for themself, their thinking and what they can learn?

If any person has such a short attention span, that's their problem to solve. Many a time I cannot dumb it down anymore than I have, before it becomes completely useless. So let the people who believe they're dumb or whatever other excuse they cling to, continue to see only blockages and excuses to what they can and cannot learn. Just because someone is over 18yrs of age, doesn't mean they are entitled to anything. So I see, that if someone can generate a vested opinion, then they can learn.

Stupidity only comes from believing you're dumb NOT from actually being dumb in reality. Leave that to the people who've been kicked in the head by a horse, or someone who had a heavy box drop on their head. Both now have permanent brain damage but can still function.

So I would then say to people around here ....... what's YOUR excuse?

Rick, in short, I don't congratulate and celebrate chosen stupidity. If people have not yet observed certain trends in how people are and how they're functioning, then it would be wise to investigate..... instead of assuming there's nothing wrong.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #582
  • May 4, 2021 8:48pm May 4, 2021 8:48pm
You can't find diamond just digging one small hole. So it's ok to read 500 page book if there if one probability that you can find something valuable.
  • #583
  • May 5, 2021 6:02am May 5, 2021 6:02am
RickM,

A quick question regarding what you said about people being fearful of wasting time with posts......

If they limit their thinking time and they limit what they read ... then HOW do they propose to do any meaningful research ? OR, is that the point, from your and their perspective - not interested in doing any research, just searching for the 'right answer' as if still in school?

I have a pretty good idea of what's going on, but, I felt it was useful to pose this to people to see if they see the insanity in that kind of thinking and approach?

* If all you have is a strategy, then you have no way to adapt or learn or improve.
* If people truly think that trading has little or nothing to do with thinking, then they're trying to start while seated behind the 8 ball. They've screwed the pooch before they've even begun.
* If you lack the background knowledge and understanding then you have sabotaged your own efforts.

The stuff I write is not the sake of ego or pride. Although many get pissed off, but hey, that's what happens when someone's ripped out of their comfort zone.

Anyway just thought this was rather interesting and I'm curious to see if people truthfully see the disconnect.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #584
  • May 5, 2021 12:28pm May 5, 2021 12:28pm
whether you are day trading or swing trading, just think long term
  • #585
  • May 5, 2021 5:30pm May 5, 2021 5:30pm
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} I agree. If you don't measure you can see just about anything you want to in a chart simply be changing time frames and scaling axis. When you start to measure things, in my experience the bigger picture starts to fall into place. If I had to chose one single indicator it would be the Average True Range(ATR). I use it to measure various important properties of markets. My motto for many years has been "Don't Guess- Test"
Absolutely right.
‘What works for me may not work for you’=I haven’t measured it
’This works well but it needs confirmation with x/y/z’=I haven’t measured it
‘It gives a lot of signals but you need to filter them’=I have measured it and it was as good as a coin toss.
Time over price, price over time. That’s trading at its heart, everything else is a distraction.
  • #586
  • May 5, 2021 6:06pm May 5, 2021 6:06pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
RickM, A quick question regarding what you said about people being fearful of wasting time with posts...... If they limit their thinking time and they limit what they read ... then HOW do they propose to do any meaningful research ? OR, is that the point, from your and their perspective - not interested in doing any research, just searching for the 'right answer' as if still in school? I have a pretty good idea of what's going on, but, I felt it was useful to pose this to people to see if they see the insanity in that kind of thinking and approach?...
It doesn’t require a great deal of insight to realise that the vast majority of people who get involved in trading, including myself I must confess, had or have totally unrealistic expectations about the time and effort involved to gain even a modest degree of mastery over the trading art. These same people, as Rick points out typically want their knowledge delivered to them in 30 second sound bytes.

From sound byte junkie to mindful, experienced, savvy trader is a long and difficult journey. It is not made any easier by the plethora of misleading, irrelevant and sometimes downright wrong information that readily gets passed around.

My question is simply this. Should those of us who, for whatever reasons, chose to try and help novices, bend our efforts to the natural starting point of their 30 second attention span or should we simply exclude from the start any who don’t demonstrate the necessary mental attributes deemed necessary for success.
Don't Guess Test
  • #587
  • Edited 8:29pm May 5, 2021 8:17pm | Edited 8:29pm
For me (Perhaps only) .... I don't believe in 'fueling the fire'. It hasn't worked. It doesn't work and never will work. From this time, date and year stamp, today, more and more people are going to struggle to understand properly, how to trade in ways that benefits them. Why? They ignore step one. What is step one? Their thinking.

EVERY person begins as a beginner, regardless of their background or upbringing. EVEN the Warren Buffets and Paul Tudor Jones's. The question is always ..... why ..... why trading?

Eg .... everyone go read this document linked below. This is a good test of stamina, focus and concentration. The people who are merely after quick 'gold nuggets' will pass on this or will give up when they get 'bored' or will make some excuse etc. A person who truly wants to learn (without any concern at this point for money and profits) will read this with ease. They are calm and have no expectations or judgment of the experience. And so they are open to learning. PERIOD.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...orts/sr262.pdf

This document is not just some random thing I found. I chose it specifically. It makes for a good test AND it's educational for a day trader or any other aspiring trader. People are what they are, usually until something happens that creates problems for them. It's only at this point, when they become more "open" to changing perspectives and/or learning something new. The main problem in some ways of understanding it, is time. How much time can someone put into learning about trading and the financial markets, firstly, THEN move on to learning HOW to trade.

With all that people talk about worldwide, it's ALWAYS going to come back to the same things - Time put in and their thinking. Unless they are "the ghost in the machine" then computers, tablets, smartphones, indicators, trading platforms, EA's etc etc etc ..... are always going to fall short of expectations because people are trying to take the human aspect out of an activity that is FOR humans, not machines. If you watch enough films and documentaries and read enough books and pay attention to people and to Life, you'll see specific underlying themes continue to resurface about all this. After all, all of that is created by people in some way or another.

For me, I try and start with these things because it is how I learned and was taught. And so far, it's worked out pretty well.

If people were to consider the possibility that it is not natural for a human to possess such a short attention span, then maybe, they'll reassess how they see everything. But for many, they need Life to run them over with a dump truck before they choose to learn.

I'm really not trying to get all philosophical about all this - I mean exactly what I'm saying here.

I just contribute. I don't like the posers and the wankers. I have little time for the BS people think is so important. Each person must see their own BS AND the 'good stuff' otherwise they cannot learn. It really is THAT straightforward. Learn or devolve.

Day trading just as with any trading, can be rewarding but it needs you to be truthful about many things. Many people like backwards thinking and don't want to change and learn. Point that out to the 'novices' and see what happens and tell them it's the truth and it's up to them what they do with it.

I hope that helps.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #588
  • May 5, 2021 8:22pm May 5, 2021 8:22pm
I would like to add here, that IF someone was focused they could learn about trading AND how to trade in less than a year or two. But the only way this happens is when the person is completely committed to bettering themself and to learning to trade. The two go hand in hand. The more a person resists facing their BS, the longer and more arduous the journey.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #589
  • May 5, 2021 9:55pm May 5, 2021 9:55pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
I would like to add here, that IF someone was focused they could learn about trading AND how to trade in less than a year or two. But the only way this happens is when the person is completely committed to bettering themself and to learning to trade. The two go hand in hand. The more a person resists facing their BS, the longer and more arduous the journey. Peter
Not really, most stuff taught by brokers, educators is just incorrect and misleading. I spend the first 5 years of my time learning garage.
How do I know if Peter’s stuff is diamonds or coal.
How does anyone know there brokers material is great or misleading.

Took me 5 years and a few grand given to my broker before I worked out some truths, even then some material still turned out to be fake.

Can I offer an example of an untruth that most experienced traders still get wrong because it explains some of their losses - and they look no further.
They still believe Stop Loss runs actually exist without ever looking more closely at liquidity components.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #590
  • May 5, 2021 10:16pm May 5, 2021 10:16pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Not really, most stuff taught by brokers, educators is just incorrect and misleading. I spend the first 5 years of my time learning garage. How do I know if Peter’s stuff is diamonds or coal. How does anyone know there brokers material is great or misleading. Took me 5 years and a few grand given to my broker before I worked out some truths, even then some material still turned out to be fake. Can I offer an example of an untruth that most experienced traders still get wrong because it explains some of their losses - and they look no further....


RickM,

I understand that you see all that as real enough. What I will say is this .... a simple variation on the 'knee tapping test' is all that is needed to determine how many times someone 'gets it wrong' / keeps letting it happen, before they 'wise up' and genuinely learn. Again I will say, people's level of personal standards are mirrored in how they decide to learn. Decide, not forced, coaxed or coerced. Not manipulated or paid. Decide.

But to operate at a level where someone can raise their personal standards has nothing to snobbery or being pretentious but simply choosing to learn instead of 'trying to make money'. The difference in the implications out in the real world and therefore in the motivator is HUGE.

So if someone chose to learn to learn, and with no other motivator, they absorb more and think more and review better. Trying to make money has a forced and pressured sub-motivator. And snowballs if it continues long enough.

It's the same in any industry of work.

There's no escaping what needs to happen and how it needs to happen. Foresight is invaluable here and is evergreen and everpresent.

I hope that explains things clearly enough.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #591
  • May 5, 2021 10:18pm May 5, 2021 10:18pm
I can see Peter is passionate in trading and has deep knowledge of trading.

However, I still believe it is not a must to go that deep. One can learn skills required for trading (eg money management), develop a strategy, and be discipline in execution.

Just take preventing COVID as an example to be easier to understand.

I believe the majority of people will do the following:
1) (learn the basic) read guidelines such as https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...revention.html
2) (specific skills) find ways to buy the appropriate masks
3) (execution) wear them

instead of reading this which is basically saying the same thing but in great depth
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7662582/

Of course at the end it is down to the individual’s preference in how deep to go. It is also true that if someone is not even care to put any effort then the risk is much higher.
It has nothing to do with intelligence nor being stupid to learn only the necessary portion of a skill. On the contrary, one will be wasting too much opportunity cost (time, energy, etc) to pursue knowing “everything of everything”.
  • #592
  • May 5, 2021 10:39pm May 5, 2021 10:39pm
Quoting tommydoginti
I can see Peter is passionate in trading and has deep knowledge of trading. However, I still believe it is not a must to go that deep. One can learn skills required for trading (eg money management), develop a strategy, and be discipline in execution. Just take preventing COVID as an example to be easier to understand. I believe the majority of people will do the following: 1) (learn the basic) read guidelines such as https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...revention.html 2) (specific skills) find ways to buy the...


What you are not understanding is that thinking is a thing someone does whether they trade or not. Be it a garbage collector, doctor, cab driver etc or a trader. A thinking person will always out trade a nonthinker. Why? The thinker thinks about more than just what they want or can "get" and possess more skill sets and abilities and capabilities than the nonthinker.

Using reductio ad absurdum to excuse what needs to happen is not a good idea. It's just a way to justify limiting yourself. "Trading" without the person and their thinking involved means there is NO trading. Originally, if no one turned up to setup a stall for selling, and no one turned up to buy FROM that stall, then what do you have ? Nothing different than if the people never existed and the stall never entered someone's mind.

This virus stuff is the same. But that's not worth talking about further because people like being ignorant but don't want the consequences that follow, The same with trading. Chosen stupidity rather than something that is completely out of their control in every single way.

The disparity of being average (or worse) yet wanting (or feeling entitled) to something better/more.

Life experiences and Life lessons show and teach these same things and trading is no different.


I hope that helps.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #593
  • May 5, 2021 11:04pm May 5, 2021 11:04pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} What you are not understanding is that thinking is a thing someone does whether they trade or not. Be it a garbage collector, doctor, cab driver etc or a trader. A thinking person will always out trade a nonthinker. Why? The thinker thinks about more than just what they want or can "get" and possess more skill sets and abilities and capabilities than the nonthinker. Using reductio ad absurdum to excuse what needs to happen is not a good idea. It's just a way to justify limiting yourself. "Trading" without the person and their thinking involved...
Peter

Please stop this thinking stuff, I am laughing my head off and everyone is looking at me on the train like I am a mad man.

“The thinker thinks like a non thinker”

ha ha ha ha ha
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #594
  • May 5, 2021 11:27pm May 5, 2021 11:27pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Peter Please stop this thinking stuff, I am laughing my head off and everyone is looking at me on the train like I am a mad man. “The thinker thinks like a non thinker” ha ha ha ha ha


There is a direct connection and correlation between self respect and learning.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #595
  • May 6, 2021 12:14am May 6, 2021 12:14am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} What you are not understanding is that thinking is a thing someone does whether they trade or not. Be it a garbage collector, doctor, cab driver etc or a trader. A thinking person will always out trade a nonthinker. Why? The thinker thinks about more than just what they want or can "get" and possess more skill sets and abilities and capabilities than the nonthinker. Using reductio ad absurdum to excuse what needs to happen is not a good idea. It's just a way to justify limiting yourself. "Trading" without the person and their thinking involved...
I do agree with you that thinking is important. Just that the actual materials and aspects of trading you evocated to learn has nothing to do with a person thinking or not, it is simply the depth of knowledge that is optional for one to pursue.

To align with your view, maybe before the next post we should first understand the source code of this FF online forum, mechanism of forum operation, and of course, the true significance of FF forum posts in respect of being a commercial product of Fair Economy Inc and how the next post will affect the KPI of it.

But I don't think that is necessary to know unless one is passionate in this topic. Most people just need to learn how to post.
  • #596
  • May 6, 2021 1:06am May 6, 2021 1:06am
Gosh

Thinking about thinking.

Do people really need to lift they feets by hands when they are walking.

People who has exprience of martial arts or high speed sports, know repeating is one of the key.

Actions will become faster than reactions. No need to think when beer bottle falls from table and you catch it.
Or someone try to hit you, and before you realize your opponent is allready on the floor.

How you know your current thinking gives better results than ten minutes ago or yesterdays thinking.

We dont need to think about heart beats or control it.

Thinking is just a silly noise as my writings in forexfactory. If you overpaint a painting, it will be ugly and one line will be beautifull.
  • #597
  • May 6, 2021 1:37am May 6, 2021 1:37am
Then I would suggest people just go give their "trading" money to charity. Maybe there it will be useful. It's obvious that superficial thinking is the trend of the day.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #598
  • May 6, 2021 2:22am May 6, 2021 2:22am
Shanti Shanti , Dire Dire.

Close your Eyes Inhale,exhale count each time you inhale 1,2,3..10 repeat.

Could be better for GBP traders today, than over thinking.

Inserted Video
  • #599
  • May 6, 2021 10:38am May 6, 2021 10:38am
Quoting tommydoginti
I can see Peter is passionate in trading and has deep knowledge of trading. However, I still believe it is not a must to go that deep. One can learn skills required for trading (eg money management), develop a strategy, and be discipline in execution. Just take preventing COVID as an example to be easier to understand. I believe the majority of people will do the following: 1) (learn the basic) read guidelines such as https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...revention.html 2) (specific skills) find ways to buy the...
How deep is deep?

I would suggest the procedural approach that you are proposing for achieving profitable trading has a number of shortcomings.

1. The basics - Basic information is of course necessary but one problem recently mentioned in this thread was that so much of the information out there is just noise. Information that is irrelevant, misleading or downright wrong just frustrates and confuses rather than educates. You only need to spend a few hours on the Rookie Talk section of this forum to realise that confusion, even about simple trading basics is the status quo.

2. Specific skills - I wouldn’t put it the same way as Peter does but it seems to me that this is what he is trying to get across when he says you need to actively think about things. Markets are constantly changing. My experience is that if you try and trade with your brain running on autopilot you are going to get run over. While we all like to believe that we are intelligent, rational people there is substantial research evidence to suggest otherwise. A lot of what people consider to be conscious, rational thinking is in fact just rationalisation. It requires quite a bit of effort to think in a focused, conscious way.

3. Execution – In my experience, trading is not just about knowing what to do but being able to apply that knowledge effectively. This is probably the hardest part of trading. It is achieved through what we commonly call practice but it is actually a bit more complex than that due again to the ever-changing nature of markets and their inherently high level of volatility. Our brains are not wired to deal effectively with this sort of situation. Some may consider making the same mistakes over and over again as practice but it won’t get you far. Practice needs to directed and focused in a way that will develop the required cognitive trading skills.
Don't Guess Test
  • #600
  • May 6, 2021 11:03am May 6, 2021 11:03am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Hi Pete, {quote} Why does the price retest these levels? ^^This has been bothering me from day one. Can we determine where/which level will the market go to first? If this can be done then do you know how to find these level? I have a theory about this based on the strength of the previous/historic move.{image} Thanks for the advice. P.S - I trade the NIFTY50 options. Cannot trade the major FX pairs in India.
I thought you were moving the discussion along pretty well with this line of questioning. Then, the discussion got derailed.

One of the brutal truths about day trading the forex is that most people do not fully appreciate what they are trading. For example, as long as market structure remains intact, the market is typically not on a mission of price discover (within certain constructs), where it is attempting to achieve equilibrium between supply and demand, to achieve a "perfect" exchange rate. With that in mind, our mission as traders is to understanding and appreciate the business flow of forex participants that may occur everyday, within the construct of structure. The reason PA returns to specific price levels is because that is how bankers manage their books (collectively), and because they have the power to move the market to those levels to manage their books (collectively). Their behavior around those price levels should give us pause, because it gives them pause, when considering trades. Our job is to trade with the bankers as they run their trading business, with an eye on structure.
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