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EUR/USD Extensive Elliot Wave Analysis 1 reply

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Elliot Wave Analysis

Quoting Merka
{quote} Please post your chart. If you can daily & H4 chart.
H4 its can interpretation Weekly and daily

Quoting corongumet
{quote} H4 its can interpretation Weekly and daily
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But its maybe wave B was don its time to make C. because it 68% of fibonaci from A-B-C (X) or X-Y-Z (A)

Quoting stringfx
although there is a possibility for eur/usd to go upto 78.6%. there appears to be a strong rejection on daily timeframe. I am hoping that B wave is over and we should be going down for a C wave in 5 waves. {image}
its important key level
Learn and Learning
an update on eur/usd .

I have been waiting for eur/usd to turn around for the C wave for ages now ... but we do know that corrections take a long time to complete especially on daily time frame. i am reasonably sure now that b wave is over and we have started the C wave with this impulsive turn around. this move has been the biggest move since one month for this pair and this could be the 1st wave of 5 waves in C. 3 waves seems to be done in wave 1. Now we need a 4th and 5th wave to complete it. after which there will be a 2nd wave up and then we sell for wave 3. meanwhile scalpers can do a lot with wave 5 of 1 and also wave 2 of C.
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STING
on a 1 hour front, this is a chart which is self explanatory ... waiting for 4th minor wave to complete and then down for a 5th wave to complete major wave 1.
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hourly update of eur/usd

I am reasonably convinced that 4th wave is completed at 50% fib. now technically it should go down for the 5th wave to 1.1992 which is 61.8 % expansion. After which we should go up in a corrective 2nd major wave.
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Quoting stringfx
an update on eur/usd . I have been waiting for eur/usd to turn around for the C wave for ages now ... but we do know that corrections take a long time to complete especially on daily time frame. i am reasonably sure now that b wave is over and we have started the C wave with this impulsive turn around. this move has been the biggest move since one month for this pair and this could be the 1st wave of 5 waves in C. 3 waves seems to be done in wave 1. Now we need a 4th and 5th wave to complete it. after which there will be a 2nd wave up and then we...
It make sense
I'm only confused about wave B that's very steep and doesn't look like a 3 waves moves typical of the corrective waves.
Isn't it?
Quoting Merka
{quote} It make sense I'm only confused about wave B that's very steep and doesn't look like a 3 waves moves typical of the corrective waves. Isn't it?
Yes B waves are unpredictable and you are right, i would have never worked this out in a live market. I could only do these waves after the wave has completed (hopefully). I could get the required fib values in these counts. This is one reason i haven't posted a lot coz it's better not to put anything out here unless you are at least reasonably sure that it's going to work out.
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Quoting stringfx
{quote} Yes B waves are unpredictable and you are right, i would have never worked this out in a live market. I could only do these waves after the wave has completed (hopefully). I could get the required fib values in these counts. This is one reason i haven't posted a lot coz it's better not to put anything out here unless you are at least reasonably sure that it's going to work out. {image}
Thanks
I was struggling in that wave B count.
Cheers
so far so good on the downward move. we should be completing a wave 1 soon. as mentioned in the earlier post. i am expecting a 1.1992 which after calculating fib confluence, this target seems to be 300% of the minor wave. + this seems to have a confluence with 61.8% expansion for the 5th minor wave of wave 1.
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Average daily range for the day is already hit at 1.1999 . so i can reasonably conclude that minor wave 5 could be finished here .. ( not entirely sure). but i am taking profit for most of my short positions here. Now we need to wait for a good retracement for selling again. 61.8 % was not hit but then again wave five is known to end earlier as well.
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Quoting stringfx
Average daily range for the day is already hit at 1.1999 . so i can reasonably conclude that minor wave 5 could be finished here .. ( not entirely sure). but i am taking profit for most of my short positions here. Now we need to wait for a good retracement for selling again. 61.8 % was not hit but then again wave five is known to end earlier as well. {image}
I'm expecting a retracement to maybe this H4 supply
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Quoting Merka
{quote} I'm expecting a retracement to maybe this H4 supply {image}
Yes, you are right . i will start selling there as well.
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Quoting stringfx
Average daily range for the day is already hit at 1.1999 . so i can reasonably conclude that minor wave 5 could be finished here .. ( not entirely sure). but i am taking profit for most of my short positions here. Now we need to wait for a good retracement for selling again. 61.8 % was not hit but then again wave five is known to end earlier as well. {image}
eur/usd update :

last post i thought 1.1999 was the end of the wave but it seems it needed to hit the 61.8% and it did. which is why it is so important to realize that we should not trade in a corrective wave unless you are scalping with tight stop losses.

One more thing to be noticed here is that could this be the 5th wave or has the 5 th wave completed already and this is the 3rd wave on it's way. it can be interpreted in any way since this is a lower time frame chart and has some noise.

I am posting 2 charts here . 1) this is a 5th wave and 2) 5th wave completed and start of a major 3rd wave.
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eur/usd update.

The minimum requirement for wave 2 is done. ADR high is at 1.2058. 38.2 retracement is completed but wave 2 is known to go to at least 50% or even 61.8 % . i have marked the zone with a blue rectangle. It could still go up to 1.2086 for a sharp move down for wave 3. let's see what happens, if it's the other scenario wherein the wave 3 has already started, then this is a perfect setup for sell at the moment. let's see what happens.
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Eur/usd update

In my honest opinion, EU should be going down on the C wave from this moment as it has hit the 61.8 retracement. Dxy also has hit the fib ratio, so i am a seller until 78.6 fib level is broken which will be my SL (1.2114).
Here is the chart
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Quoting stringfx
Eur/usd update In my honest opinion, EU should be going down on the C wave from this moment as it has hit the 61.8 retracement. Dxy also has hit the fib ratio, so i am a seller until 78.6 fib level is broken which will be my SL (1.2114). Here is the chart {image}
It's just me or this EU is a bit unpredictable lately?
no, it's not just you. although the high is still not taken out and i am flat at the moment with my SL being taken out. DXY has broken the low which is a key thing that there is one more low in B wave. This could be the 78.6 retracement. (refer post 1404). so maybe we will see next week, it may gap down for DXY to reach that fib value. today was NFP and the figures are pretty bad economically which is quite disappointing as almost all of usa is vaccinated now and the pandemic seems in control in US, there are no lockdowns and also the case are at the lowest and still employment is not good. So this could be a stop hunt from institutional traders as well. It's better to stay out until we see clearer direction. No more trades for today at least. The stock market indices are also pushing higher even though very overbought and could drop anytime.
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Quoting stringfx
no, it's not just you. although the high is still not taken out and i am flat at the moment with my SL being taken out. DXY has broken the low which is a key thing that there is one more low in B wave. This could be the 78.6 retracement. (refer post 1404). so maybe we will see next week, it may gap down for DXY to reach that fib value. today was NFP and the figures are pretty bad economically which is quite disappointing as almost all of usa is vaccinated now and the pandemic seems in control in US, there are no lockdowns and also the case are at...
Yes
waiting for clearer directions as well.
Cheers
Quoting Greenspanke
Here's what I was waiting for to go short again Merka. I guess we are aligned in our thinking now Stinger. {image}
This count is still looking good Merka.
John 3:16
Quoting Greenspanke
{quote} This count is still looking good Merka.
Yes it can develop in that way unless a new bull cycle already started
Not sure I follow what you mean. The way I see it, if it breaks the previous high I still look for it to track
my count in white and invalidates the count in yellow. Funny how price stops just short of the prev high.
If it does break then Ill post the other count different than the count in white but direction stays the same.
My counts sticks to one direction as my higher TF charts.
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John 3:16
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