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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #521
  • Edited 2:19am May 2, 2021 2:07am | Edited 2:19am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi maverick, I only trade the majors (tho I do watch GJ in conjunction with UJ) The market repeats on ALL timeframes, the fractal nature of it. I watch the Weekly, Hourly, 15m & 5m. But trade only from the 1m chart. The swings will get retested. Look at any chart. As a trader though, it comes down to where will YOU enter. Each finds their own way in FX. Use all information found and THEN don't follow others - your 'own' found way will provide the greatest benefit for YOU, in the long run imho. The attached 1HR chart has a move high-low of...
Hi Pete,
Quote
The swings will get retested

Why does the price retest these levels?
^^This has been bothering me from day one.

Can we determine where/which level will the market go to first? If this can be done then do you know how to find these level? I have a theory about this based on the strength of the previous/historic move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_4.png Size: 34 KB


Thanks for the advice.
P.S - I trade the NIFTY50 options. Cannot trade the major FX pairs in India.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #522
  • May 2, 2021 2:29am May 2, 2021 2:29am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 96c0422bba7e048977e30bee6233f9de.png Size: 48 KB


What is the purpose of putting marks in the past? There were nothing in the future yet.

Attached Image

This screen is even more interesting. Is that top?
I mean that you put the lines on the chart using the data from the FUTURE. But at the moment of possible entry that data was not available!!!
Observer effect
  • #523
  • May 2, 2021 3:10am May 2, 2021 3:10am
Quoting ryuryu
{image} What is the purpose of putting marks in the past? There were nothing in the future yet. {image} This screen is even more interesting. Is that top? I mean that you put the lines on the chart using the data from the FUTURE. But at the moment of possible entry that data was not available!!!
If you take any chart and draw lines/areas at the swing high/lows then these areas are respected most of the times. The thing is to have the nerves to do it.
There is a psychological and a logical reason for this. What kind of trader buys the dips?

Try extending the bottom red line to the left and get amazed.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #524
  • May 2, 2021 3:18am May 2, 2021 3:18am
Here is the question of the century?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15.png Size: 47 KB
  • #525
  • May 2, 2021 3:28am May 2, 2021 3:28am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote}
Hi Pete, {quote} Why does the price retest these levels? ^^
This has been bothering me from day one.
Can we determine where/which level will the market go to first?
If this can be done then do you know how to find these level?
I have a theory about this based on the strength of the previous/historic move.
{image} Thanks for the advice. P.S - I trade the NIFTY50 options. Cannot trade the major FX pairs in India.

Hi maverick,

Cheers pal.

Why indeed. It is the question I always think also. Yet when the market flows, it goes there again.

I have no solution to getting the full pip run from the top to the bottom, I scalp in the midst of the move, and the market behaves.

I have theories also, but I leave them aside now and just trade the market as it is.


And its fractal.

Last week I can pretty much assure you that many traders looked at USDCAD at quite a few places and thought here was the full "turn reversal".

Yet each time the market went lower again and again, after small pullbacks.

This could essentially be global fundamentals. It could be the market makers also had buyers trapped eager & vulnertable.

Or it could be x,y,z. I don't dwell on the reasons so much any more.


Yet where was the USDCAD market headed. The Weekly chart (ultimately) held the clue.

(And we all knew at the end, but good luck with trading all that run as it happening though ).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADWeekly.png Size: 22 KB
  • #526
  • May 2, 2021 3:31am May 2, 2021 3:31am
Quoting ryuryu
{image}
What is the purpose of putting marks in the past? There were nothing in the future yet.


Hi ryuryu,

To be honest I have no idea what you mean with your question.

all the best
Pete
  • #527
  • May 2, 2021 3:58am May 2, 2021 3:58am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi maverick, Cheers pal. Why indeed. It is the question I always think also. Yet when the market flows, it goes there again. I have no solution to getting the full pip run from the top to the bottom, I scalp in the midst of the move, and the market behaves. I have theories also, but I leave them aside now and just trade the market as it is. And its fractal. Last week I can pretty much assure you that many traders looked at USDCAD at quite a few places and thought here was the full "turn reversal". Yet each time the market went lower again...
Can you tell the reason behind choosing the high/low as the marking points (except that it works )?

Market makers don't trap, they just know where the stop levels are.

On USDCAD, I will say that the bullish signals had stopped working a long time ago. So, ride the trend as long as bullish signals are not working but then again for us intraday traders, this long term view isn't of much use because our stops are only a few pips away from the entry.

Cheers!!
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #528
  • May 2, 2021 4:00am May 2, 2021 4:00am
Quoting Ihlas
Here is the question of the century? {image}
If you are talking in century terms then ask Mr. buffet.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #529
  • May 2, 2021 4:06am May 2, 2021 4:06am
Quoting Ihlas
Here is the question of the century? {image}
Why not this!?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_5.png Size: 43 KB
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #530
  • May 2, 2021 4:30am May 2, 2021 4:30am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Why not this!? {image}

Another question of the century
RIght question
  • #531
  • May 2, 2021 4:32am May 2, 2021 4:32am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Another question of the century RIght question
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #532
  • May 2, 2021 5:15am May 2, 2021 5:15am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote}
Hi Maverick

Why not this?

That may have been the plan to pull price back at the target line but the big players forgot to Buy.

On the order flow charts looking at the Bids & Asks from GBPUSD futures charts, there were no buyers interested.
There was only heavy amounts of Sellers interested in trading the following breakout that occurred after it broke the line but there wasn't a Big Player in sight.

It wasn't a stop hunt either as the bar produced was a large bearish delta candle, not a bullish delta stop hunting candle.

Simply No Buyers were interested - no one bothered to trade the pattern and importantly - NO STOP HUNTING OCCURRED
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #533
  • Edited 6:01am May 2, 2021 5:39am | Edited 6:01am
We are missing the bigger picture of jigsaw puzzle
Forgot to buy = I think you are joking LOL (Don't get me wrong)
Why it didn't drop to 1.38573 or more down
  • #534
  • May 2, 2021 5:43am May 2, 2021 5:43am
Quoting Ihlas
We are missing the bigger picture of jigsaw puzzle Forgot to buy = I think you are joking LOL Why it didn't drop to 1.38573 or more down
Why must it drop to that level or below?
  • #535
  • May 2, 2021 5:50am May 2, 2021 5:50am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} Why must it drop to that level or below?

Did I say it must drop to that level or below?
Right question is: Why it didn't drop to 1.38573 or more down and then went up?
Good luck
  • #536
  • May 2, 2021 5:54am May 2, 2021 5:54am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Maverick Why not this? That may have been the plan to pull price back at the target line but the big players forgot to Buy. On the order flow charts looking at the Bids & Asks from GBPUSD futures charts, there were no buyers interested. There was only heavy amounts of Sellers interested in trading the following breakout that occurred after it broke the line but there wasn't a Big Player in sight. It wasn't a stop hunt either as the bar produced was a large bearish delta candle, not a bullish delta stop hunting candle. Simply No Buyers...
Hi Rick,

Was there no buying pressure when price was dropping (look at the wicks below on the bearish candles) ?

At the line, there would have been big players.

What was the volume on limit buy orders?

What are order flow charts?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #537
  • May 2, 2021 5:55am May 2, 2021 5:55am
Quoting Ihlas
We are missing the bigger picture of jigsaw puzzle Forgot to buy = I think you are joking LOL Why it didn't drop to 1.38573 or more down
Why do you think that numbers are so precise?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #538
  • May 2, 2021 6:02am May 2, 2021 6:02am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Did I say it must drop to that level or below? Right question is: Why it didn't drop to 1.38573 or more down and then went up? Good luck
If you look at the image where it stopped there was some mismatch. It will be interesting to see what RickM finds on his side.

Edit: Perhaps mitigating?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m1 (2021-05-02).png Size: 54 KB
  • #539
  • May 2, 2021 6:04am May 2, 2021 6:04am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Maverick Why not this? That may have been the plan to pull price back at the target line but the big players forgot to Buy. On the order flow charts looking at the Bids & Asks from GBPUSD futures charts, there were no buyers interested. There was only heavy amounts of Sellers interested in trading the following breakout that occurred after it broke the line but there wasn't a Big Player in sight. It wasn't a stop hunt either as the bar produced was a large bearish delta candle, not a bullish delta stop hunting candle. Simply No Buyers...
Are these markings correct?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_6.png Size: 46 KB
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #540
  • May 2, 2021 6:56am May 2, 2021 6:56am
The truth is that also day trading can be profitable.
What you think about someone who cut hair. People come want shorten it and also people who have months between the haircut. It will be cut. Market is simple not often if you read forex factory, but...
Market is moving, resting, moving, resting...
Or...
Market is resting, moving, resting, moving...

I tend to cut every day hair... Lol
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
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