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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #501
  • Apr 29, 2021 7:51pm Apr 29, 2021 7:51pm
Quoting viptrading
I am Long SOYBNUSD SUGARUSD WHEATUSD GBPCHF GBPAUD EURCHF and DOGECOIN Anyone who wants to see my analysis or wants to see charts pick a pair from here and I will post, except for DOGE, that one was kind of a joke, though I am still long lol.

yes please, GBPCHF GBPAUD EURCHF
  • #502
  • Apr 30, 2021 1:57am Apr 30, 2021 1:57am
Quoting triphop
{quote} Simz, it is available - I've been using it for nearly a decade. Check out DTCC. Covers around 60% of fx option turnover since Dodd Frank - basically every option worldwide that involves the $. They used to publish it for open access but whether or not they still do, it's a ballache to use, so Eikon's the way forward.
I used this tick volume indicator for MT4 and looks like the cfds are more or less a derivative of futures and so the volume reflected is true. However, that can't be said of the ask bid prices moving in tandem with futures prices. There is no uniformity about CFD quotes and they make it clear that they are market makers and they are not acting as dealers/brokers of liquidity providers.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 TicksSeparateVolumeDif.mq4   10 KB | 398 downloads
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #503
  • Apr 30, 2021 5:16am Apr 30, 2021 5:16am
Quoting simnz
{quote} I used this tick volume indicator for MT4 and looks like the cfds are more or less a derivative of futures and so the volume reflected is true. However, that can't be said of the ask bid prices moving in tandem with futures prices. There is no uniformity about CFD quotes and they make it clear that they are market makers and they are not acting as dealers/brokers of liquidity providers. {file}
Hi Simz, DTCC is a different ballpark to tick volume or futures data. If tick data is a shadow's shadow, futures are a shadow and proper tier1 option data is the real deal (even though it's options) because of how options are used by t1 to warehouse risk.
This is not to denigrate anyone using one over another; it's simply looking through a different lens and time horizon to determine something bigger.
  • #504
  • Apr 30, 2021 12:21pm Apr 30, 2021 12:21pm
RickM, I have been reading your posts and have been thinking about the volume indications you work with. This morning, I was in 2 sell trades in the E$, and 3 sell trades in the G$. If I posted the two charts with trades and time markings, could you look back at your volume indicators and compare what you were seeing? I am not trying to compare our trading methods, but it might be interesting to see when volume rolled in on the Euro and GBP compared to my trade setups. If you'd like to do this but not here, just let me know and we'll find another way. My theory is this: the trade setups signal intent; volume signals follow through. Maybe we could look for a setup and a lack of follow through. It might be interesting, if you are curious, too. If not, I completely understand.
  • #505
  • Apr 30, 2021 11:55pm Apr 30, 2021 11:55pm
Quoting GEfx
RickM, I have been reading your posts and have been thinking about the volume indications you work with. This morning, I was in 2 sell trades in the E$, and 3 sell trades in the G$. If I posted the two charts with trades and time markings, could you look back at your volume indicators and compare what you were seeing? I am not trying to compare our trading methods, but it might be interesting to see when volume rolled in on the Euro and GBP compared to my trade setups. If you'd like to do this but not here, just let me know and we'll find another...
Here you go. GBPUSD15M
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip GBPUSD.zip   666 KB | 347 downloads
  • #506
  • May 1, 2021 4:32am May 1, 2021 4:32am
Quoting GEfx
RickM, I have been reading your posts and have been thinking about the volume indications you work with. This morning, I was in 2 sell trades in the E$, and 3 sell trades in the G$. If I posted the two charts with trades and time markings, could you look back at your volume indicators and compare what you were seeing? I am not trying to compare our trading methods, but it might be interesting to see when volume rolled in on the Euro and GBP compared to my trade setups. If you'd like to do this but not here, just let me know and we'll find another...
Hi GEfx

The action on both EURUSD & GBPUSD was very powerful on Friday, there is lots that happened yesterday that's worth discussing.
I'll drop you a link in a PM so we can compare notes.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #507
  • May 1, 2021 4:56am May 1, 2021 4:56am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} I agree that market isn't random, but the price is predictable. For example: GU short term target is 1.37600 EURUSD will hit 1.22400 (this is longer term) / You need to analyze the smaller timeframes for entries

Just this happened on GU and EU
GU will drop to 1.37300 and then 1.40800 +20 pips maybe
That's all
Peace
  • #508
  • May 1, 2021 11:45am May 1, 2021 11:45am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi GEfx The action on both EURUSD & GBPUSD was very powerful on Friday, there is lots that happened yesterday that's worth discussing. I'll drop you a link in a PM so we can compare notes. Cheers
Thanks Rick...got it. I'll send it over.
  • #509
  • May 1, 2021 12:07pm May 1, 2021 12:07pm
The most important issue in trade is psychology, It is the ability to trade without losing your emotions.
  • #510
  • May 1, 2021 2:22pm May 1, 2021 2:22pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Maverick, Am I a bear lol. Mate I trade more like a lion imo. I don't (well, now) expend my energy just chasing the prey. I wait for the prey to do something first (price expansion from a moderate range is one example), then I observe where the prey moves to. ie I don't trade a breakout just because it broke out - I might trade it later after a confirmation, which sometimes may be one hour or many hours - the market I believe wants to do something or go somewhere, but it doesn't necessarily do it immediately. If I was to trade 'immediately'...
I thought you are a bear because you are waiting for the big fall in the market that might happen. I do not know when but I do think that it might happen.

If I can say anything, about the way you trade, from what you have described in your post is that you do scalp sometimes and are more inclined towards finding big moves (are they intraday?).

Only yesterday I have learned that market does show a good setup which I'm looking for atleast once and that is all I need to be profitable.
If this can be done by me that is just wait for the market then : 1.) I won't over trade. 2.) I won't revenge trade. 3.) I won't take a trade out of compulsion to trade. 4.) I won't jump a trade i.e. enter too early.

Did any of these realizations happen with you when you were done with the brutal part?

Quote
the market I believe wants to do something or go somewhere, but it doesn't necessarily do it immediately.
How do you know that that something will happen and how it will happen?

I will go through RickM's posts.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #511
  • May 1, 2021 2:51pm May 1, 2021 2:51pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi mtako I am a day trader - I don't use patterns, follow trends, don't watch price, don't follow news, don't care if its the London session or a quiet period during the Asia session. I only watch for liquidity imbalances at the end of expansion - then follow the move. Its all over in a couple of minutes. Why wait a week
What does an expansion mean?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #512
  • Edited 5:21pm May 1, 2021 4:32pm | Edited 5:21pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} What does an expansion mean?
The forex and metal markets has a frequency where 50% of times it’s either above the mid point or below the mid point. When there is only moderate volume, price never separates itself from the mid point by more than a few pips.
Therefore separation from this mid point is termed EXPANSION and requires increasing volume or price will collapses back to market frequency.
The expansion average for EURUSD is only around 4 pips with normal maximum expansion only 9 pips.
On big volume moves, price will breakout from this frequency till equilibrium is established and expansion levels are rebalanced.

Therefore the markets can be defined as a fixed frequency Modified Sine Wave with variable amplitude that has its expansion levels directly depended on current average volume.

Get down to the lowest time frames possible with your order flow volume indicators at hand and be prepared to trade with aggression.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: msv.jpg Size: 93 KB
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #513
  • Edited May 2, 2021 4:31am May 1, 2021 5:20pm | Edited May 2, 2021 4:31am
Quoting RickM
{quote} The forex and metal markets has a frequency where 50% of times it’s either above the mid point or below the mid point. When there is only moderate volume, price never separates itself from the mid point by more than a few pips. Therefore separation from this mid point is termed EXPANSION and requires increasing volume or price will collapses back to market frequency. The expansion average for EURUSD is only around 4 pips with normal maximum expansion only 9 pips. On big volume moves, price will breakout from this frequency till equilibrium...
I'm confused and do not know what is confusing me. So, I'll rewrite my understanding of the part I'm confused about.

So, after reaching an expansion level (this expansion level is not pre-determined), market may move in the same direction of breakout or opposite direction and then back to some levels. The level market rises and falls from, after the breakout, most of the times will be the new mid point. This mid point can be above or below the expansion level which now has been determined.

I guess my question is how can the expansion level be determined before breakout happens and then market retracements/reversals?

Quote
Get down to the lowest time frames possible with your order flow volume indicators
I watch the level II and time and sales numbers. Both of these combined is called order flow?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #514
  • May 1, 2021 5:51pm May 1, 2021 5:51pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} The forex and metal markets has a frequency where 50% of times it’s either above the mid point or below the mid point. When there is only moderate volume, price never separates itself from the mid point by more than a few pips. Therefore separation from this mid point is termed EXPANSION and requires increasing volume or price will collapses back to market frequency. The expansion average for EURUSD is only around 4 pips with normal maximum expansion only 9 pips. On big volume moves, price will breakout from this frequency till equilibrium...
Got it!!
Thanks!
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #515
  • May 1, 2021 6:17pm May 1, 2021 6:17pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} I thought you are a bear because you are waiting for the big fall in the market that might happen.

If I can say anything, about the way you trade, from what you have described in your post is that you do scalp sometimes and are more inclined towards finding big moves (are they intraday?).

Only yesterday I have learned that market does show a good setup which I'm looking for atleast once and that is all I need to be profitable.
If this can be done by me that is just wait for the market then
1.) I won't over trade.
2.) I won't revenge...



Hi maverick, mate I trade in either direction, both long & short.

And sometimes in ‘both’ directions during a range setup (which can occur after a directional change).



I scalp exclusively. I'm not inclined to finding big moves - to trade.

I happily get in and out for 7-10p when I find setups that repeat. I use targets to determine trade exits, more so than use them for trade beginnings (thus I do miss some of the bigger moves, and by choice).



Simply, I wait for a ‘flip’ of market direction.

And I don’t trade (now) AT the “points” where this happens (some great reversal traders do trade at this point).

But these points become my triggers of interest.


And then the beginning of the ‘waiting’.

Which is the ‘brutal’ part lol - maintaining composure & containing the building ‘~trade excitement~’ waiting for an entry, after a confirmation.


The waiting part I use to establish if any market direction change is not just merely a “fake n flip”, as I call it (ie whipsaw, shake-out of current direction holders etc). I use ma’s, pretty much, in my assistance here. With my eye always on established market swing point targets.

All the best
Pete
  • #516
  • May 1, 2021 6:37pm May 1, 2021 6:37pm
Quote
in and out for 7-10p when I find setups that repeat

This is of big interest for me. Repeat on which timeframe?

What if the "fake n flip" goes beyond 7pips? Do you not trade the majors?

Thanks!!
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #517
  • May 1, 2021 7:01pm May 1, 2021 7:01pm
B.S find something you can do! It was entertaining though. Story the same pile of dung over and over.
  • #518
  • May 1, 2021 8:09pm May 1, 2021 8:09pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote}
This is of big interest for me.
Repeat on which timeframe?
What if the "fake n flip" goes beyond 7pips?
Do you not trade the majors? Thanks!!

Hi maverick,

I only trade the majors (tho I do watch GJ in conjunction with UJ)


The market repeats on ALL timeframes, the fractal nature of it.

I watch the Weekly, Hourly, 15m & 5m. But trade only from the 1m chart.

The swings will get retested. Look at any chart.

As a trader though, it comes down to where will YOU enter.

Each finds their own way in FX.

Use all information found and THEN don't follow others - your 'own' found way will provide the greatest benefit for YOU, in the long run imho.


The attached 1HR chart has a move high-low of nearly 300p. Where did price go to, and from where did it begin. In there somewhere is a 10p trade (at the top, at the bottom, and in between). 10p, nothing exciting. Big pips hold the big attraction for most.

What are we after as a trader. Pip glory, pip regularity, maybe merely a comprehension of the market we trade. Each to their own. Trade safe.


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 29 KB
  • #519
  • May 1, 2021 8:11pm May 1, 2021 8:11pm
Quoting dforant1
B.S find something you can do! It was entertaining though. Story the same pile of dung over and over.
Hi Dforant

Don’t just sit there reading and placing smart comments - there is plenty of traders on FF who share their trading strategies.


You now have the floor, tell us how you trade?
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #520
  • May 1, 2021 11:22pm May 1, 2021 11:22pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Dforant Don’t just sit there reading and placing smart comments - there is plenty of traders on FF who share their trading strategies. You now have the floor, tell us so day opphow you trade?
I have long now traded Phillip Nels Sys. Pullbacks into a10/21 exp zonewith 50 simple for slope entry. Also day open line, price above long setups. Reverse below.
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