Took a breakout trade long, missed the demand long in the purple zone on the retest. 1.3882
DXY broke a TL
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yFDlBnNB/
Got taken out BE
DXY broke a TL
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yFDlBnNB/
Got taken out BE
- #60
- May 15, 2021 1:37pm May 15, 2021 1:37pm
- Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 6,009 Posts
My look at the week ahead posted on cable update
This week seems a lot tougher to pin down IMO so tread carefully. I like to make a plan at the weekend and consider both the bull and the bear side, what my bias is and what would make me change my mind. However, I make my money on the 5m chart and trade both ways so this is just an exercise. My bias is merely there to make me more inclined to hold trades a bit longer and leave runners if I have conviction that something is going to happen. I'm not here to predict 300 pip swings as it's not what I'm good at. Under no circumstances trade anything I post with real money, you wouldn't take horse racing tips from a random person in a bookmakers so don't do it here either
If I post a trade there's a good chance I TP'd or took breakeven on it before you even read it.
With that said, on the daily our ABCD played out perfectly, and if the pattern is to be taken to its conclusion then we're talking about a target of 1.38 which jives well with a daily demand level. Bulls will be thinking that we had a major breakout last week and 1.40 is an RBS level, Bears will be thinking it was a buyside liquidity sweep and the major players are building shorts up here, and the move to 1.41 was a retest of this level before more downside. 1.41 is also the 0.618 retrace of the last down leg so a break or bounce here will be instructive.
For me I will trade both ways, I am watching 1.41 and 1.4127-46 for any bearish price action. If we break out of the H1 flag then we have a good bearish confirmation signal. If we start pushing above the ascending channel then we have good bullish confirmation may even start to think about breaking the last high.
DXY I want to watch 90.12-90.20 for a bounce, beyond that to see if the 90 demand area holds. We posted about the bounces from 90 and 91 so there's no major surprises here. Either we're basing here and getting ready to pop or we're just continuing the strong daily downtrend. I'll we watching the PA carefully around here. One clue we have is the US10Y yields making a very bullish formation. On Friday it's common for rates traders to take profits at round numbers (170bps in this case). Bullishness here on the back of the inflation news would indicate a rising dollar and more bearishness for cable. I cannot see how yearly double digit inflation can be sustained without tapering, and the cost push & demand pull inflationary pressures are growing, not falling. So my gut feeling is that this will play out and we'll see falls from 1.41-4150. However, anything can happen- I prefer to react to price action on the shorter time frames and make a small profit every day- but if you put a gun to my head I'd say 1.3950 next week, beyond that 1.38. Ranging between 1.40-1.41 wouldn't shock me either.
What do you think? Am I talking shit or are there kernels of truth? What are you doing? Good luck and good trading to you all for the week ahead
This week seems a lot tougher to pin down IMO so tread carefully. I like to make a plan at the weekend and consider both the bull and the bear side, what my bias is and what would make me change my mind. However, I make my money on the 5m chart and trade both ways so this is just an exercise. My bias is merely there to make me more inclined to hold trades a bit longer and leave runners if I have conviction that something is going to happen. I'm not here to predict 300 pip swings as it's not what I'm good at. Under no circumstances trade anything I post with real money, you wouldn't take horse racing tips from a random person in a bookmakers so don't do it here either
If I post a trade there's a good chance I TP'd or took breakeven on it before you even read it.With that said, on the daily our ABCD played out perfectly, and if the pattern is to be taken to its conclusion then we're talking about a target of 1.38 which jives well with a daily demand level. Bulls will be thinking that we had a major breakout last week and 1.40 is an RBS level, Bears will be thinking it was a buyside liquidity sweep and the major players are building shorts up here, and the move to 1.41 was a retest of this level before more downside. 1.41 is also the 0.618 retrace of the last down leg so a break or bounce here will be instructive.
For me I will trade both ways, I am watching 1.41 and 1.4127-46 for any bearish price action. If we break out of the H1 flag then we have a good bearish confirmation signal. If we start pushing above the ascending channel then we have good bullish confirmation may even start to think about breaking the last high.
DXY I want to watch 90.12-90.20 for a bounce, beyond that to see if the 90 demand area holds. We posted about the bounces from 90 and 91 so there's no major surprises here. Either we're basing here and getting ready to pop or we're just continuing the strong daily downtrend. I'll we watching the PA carefully around here. One clue we have is the US10Y yields making a very bullish formation. On Friday it's common for rates traders to take profits at round numbers (170bps in this case). Bullishness here on the back of the inflation news would indicate a rising dollar and more bearishness for cable. I cannot see how yearly double digit inflation can be sustained without tapering, and the cost push & demand pull inflationary pressures are growing, not falling. So my gut feeling is that this will play out and we'll see falls from 1.41-4150. However, anything can happen- I prefer to react to price action on the shorter time frames and make a small profit every day- but if you put a gun to my head I'd say 1.3950 next week, beyond that 1.38. Ranging between 1.40-1.41 wouldn't shock me either.
What do you think? Am I talking shit or are there kernels of truth? What are you doing? Good luck and good trading to you all for the week ahead
