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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #461
  • Apr 27, 2021 8:05am Apr 27, 2021 8:05am
I wish I hadn't deleted my posts..
on a postive roll...
  • #462
  • Apr 27, 2021 9:43am Apr 27, 2021 9:43am
Thank you for your reply Rick, - surprisingly the volumes which come in on eur/gbp are within seconds of the volume coming into gbp/usd. I trade these as
opposite correlations - basically moving in opposite directions to each other, especially on the shorter time frames. At first I thought it was an algo by the liquid
provider to get rid of any lag between the two pairs- lag would mean guaranteed wins - but I think it just a big player trying to reduce slippage - you put 50 million on one pair and 50 million on another pair - less slippage than putting a massive amount on one pair. The other currency pair is eur/usd - these three pairs are linked heavily and volumes seam to bounce across them - maybe in a form of a hedge, or MAYBE, which is most liquid at the time.
Peter - I found the you tube video you posted about brokers very enlightening - a book, b book clients and the reason why most fail to make money in FX.
  • #463
  • Apr 27, 2021 9:55am Apr 27, 2021 9:55am
Quoting alphaomega
How about you stop drawing lines, forget about the common "technical analysis" and all these stupid theories? Start to pay attention to the things that matter! Take currency strength for example. One of the most simple and yet most important things in FX. Yet you don't see many people using it. In fact you can't even find the proper calculation anywhere. It's like nobody knows how to calculate the strength of individual currencies. Most people are stuck trading just one pair instead of looking at the whole market. Now how stupid is that? ...
Hi Alphaomega

Currency strength can be measured in data terms as the amount of volume required to move either the bids or asks to a state of imbalance without causing rejection. You also cannot determine currency strength unless you know how dense the cluster is the bids and asks are fighting.

It comes down to this - Strong currency strength is the result of an imbalance of bids or asks without any major rejection. Therefore aggressive market orders needs to be attacking passive limit orders which contain less density but importantly contain no gaps.

That's the hard part - how dense is the order cluster.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #464
  • Apr 27, 2021 11:11am Apr 27, 2021 11:11am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Alphaomega Currency strength can be measured in data terms as the amount of volume required to move either the bids or asks to a state of imbalance without causing rejection. You also cannot determine currency strength unless you know how dense the cluster is the bids and asks are fighting. It comes down to this - Strong currency strength is the result of an imbalance of bids or asks without any major rejection. Therefore aggressive market orders needs to be attacking passive limit orders which contain less density but importantly contain...
I was talking about something else and much much simpler. Strength of individual currencies.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CS 2021-04-27 .png Size: 19 KB


You can't use volume in decentralized market.
  • #465
  • Apr 27, 2021 1:36pm Apr 27, 2021 1:36pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} For me (And I am only speaking for myself here) I would concur with what you are saying. The only thing I would query, is the expected efficacy of currency "strength". It's more coined wording these days rather than people actually understanding its place in particular approaches and circumstances. If people are using moving averages or other indicators to gauge it, then they are not legitimately evaluating anything but the fragmented movements. From what I have seen, most people do not want to put in the time or effort to seek real world...
The real truth is financial trading (except stocks or bonds) is a form of speculation.
UK provides the maximum number of large OTC marketplaces and sports betting market makers.
Horse betting is on the decline.
Uk is the centre of all kinds of gambling activities labelled as speculation.
US provides the maximum number of so-called regulated large Exchanges.
The common factor is all the marketplaces are initiated or controlled by Israelis.
Another common factor is that economic matters don't influence speculation activities.
Big hype is created by clubbing the contract values (rather than the initial margin needed to trade contracts) to show how huge the betting is.

I enjoy betting and that's why I am into it and using market makers as my collaborators in a money-making scheme.
My EA acts as my negotiator with them and we both are in a win-win situation.
No hard feelings for anyone.

If you don't believe it, take a look at all the publicly listed marketplaces and their growth in terms of profits.
You can buy their shares and recover your losses.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #466
  • Apr 27, 2021 4:22pm Apr 27, 2021 4:22pm
OMG from drawing rectangles and useless posts about random/not random we've come to racist conspiracy theory.
Observer effect
  • #467
  • Apr 27, 2021 4:49pm Apr 27, 2021 4:49pm
Quoting GEfx
Hidden
It is a compliment to Israelis on their money making ways. Most of wallet platforms and binary option ideas come from Israel. Israel parliament condemned binary option promoters.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #468
  • Apr 27, 2021 4:53pm Apr 27, 2021 4:53pm
Quoting GEfx
Hidden
Looks like you need some pretext to gossip. No wonder FF is losing revenue .
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #469
  • Apr 27, 2021 6:19pm Apr 27, 2021 6:19pm
In real life Jews do not have to be Israeli's and vice versa. Are you people so ignorant of the world around you? One is of Geographic nationalistic nature and the other is of religious nature.

Thankyou simnz for pointing that out about those points. I don't bet much at all these days so I don't keep up with these things.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #470
  • Apr 27, 2021 6:31pm Apr 27, 2021 6:31pm
Daytrading can be a rather arduous task for many people, unless you're addicted to "the action". Of course if you love what you do re: the process that leads up the moment you send an order to market, then you have a VERY distinct advantage over intellectualites who pose and people who know little about human psychology and people in general or the world at large. Even in the old days traders needed to have SOME idea of what was happening in the world so they could stay ahead of the curve.

People all over don't seem to operate this way as much anymore. Is it then any surprise that there is a direct correlation between lack of proper brain activity and trading performance?


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #471
  • Edited 11:10pm Apr 27, 2021 8:42pm | Edited 11:10pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} I was talking about something else and much much simpler. Strength of individual currencies. {image} You can't use volume in decentralized market.
So was I, and it’s predictive unlikely anything else available in your took box.

As for not be able to use volume while trading a decentralised market, you only need to study parallel markets that run in sync.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #474
  • Apr 28, 2021 5:54am Apr 28, 2021 5:54am
Quoting PeterCaleb
Hidden
An Israeli can be anyone ie. a Jew, an Arab or a Christian. A citizen of that country.
The 3 main religions in that country are also known as "Abrahamic faiths" tracing their origins back to Prophet Abraham. A.S.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #475
  • Apr 28, 2021 5:55am Apr 28, 2021 5:55am
No se enteran de ná. Bulerías. Navajita Plateá. 2011 - YouTube
Newbie trader
  • #476
  • Apr 28, 2021 7:33am Apr 28, 2021 7:33am
Quoting RickM
{quote} So was I, and it’s predictive unlikely anything else available in your took box. As for not be able to use volume while trading a decentralised market, you only need to study parallel markets that run in sync.
In both cases, you have to assume, guess or what could happen next.
In both cases, you can find indicators to help guess or what could happen next.
The fact remains you never know what is in store for you next.

It's OTC market where you can't get information. It's Futures market where you can get information.
The fact remains volume of the trades is not as great as is hyped using misleading information about the values.
The value of contracts is counted as the size of the market which is quite misleading. If leverage is counted at an average of 50 times, then you can really get a clear picture.
FX market is quite small when compared with stocks. Figures speak for itself.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU, EG, JU, MXU futures top the volume.jpg Size: 680 KB
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #477
  • Apr 28, 2021 8:13am Apr 28, 2021 8:13am
Form my own experiences, about 10-20% of usable 'liquidity' is used ongoing for profiteering in FX OTC each day. What many people do not remember, is that FX is "Foreign Exchange" and this relates to transactional transfers NOT profit making processes (speculative profiteering). So if say, McDonald's needs to transfer funds from country A to B, then it has to redeem a note to do so. They can't just call the bank and tell them to transfer. Certain large amounts are either done in-house or through an exchange so a 'note' of process must be created. This creates a paper trail for everyone involved. In Australia for eg, we have BPay, the consumer equivalent, so people can pay bills and make extension payments etc etc from a bank account etc. So yes much is misunderstood by people. The Stocks and other market classes are easily misunderstood as well.

From the base level of a "reversal" on the chart through to the other end reversal base, there are intervals and liquidity is helping to "form" 'pullbacks and counter trend corrections'.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #478
  • Apr 28, 2021 9:59am Apr 28, 2021 9:59am
I found the tick volume on mt4 trading desks are quite helpful, but you need to see it together with your indicators showing a reversal. If you don't have the right indicators in place volume is of no use.
  • #479
  • Apr 28, 2021 10:21am Apr 28, 2021 10:21am
Quoting simnz
{quote} In both cases, you have to assume, guess or what could happen next. In both cases, you can find indicators to help guess or what could happen next. The fact remains you never know what is in store for you next. It's OTC market where you can't get information. It's Futures market where you can get information. The fact remains volume of the trades is not as great as is hyped using misleading information about the values. The value of contracts is counted as the size of the market which is quite misleading. If leverage is counted at an average...
Simz, it is available - I've been using it for nearly a decade. Check out DTCC. Covers around 60% of fx option turnover since Dodd Frank - basically every option worldwide that involves the $. They used to publish it for open access but whether or not they still do, it's a ballache to use, so Eikon's the way forward.
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