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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #421
  • Apr 26, 2021 4:05am Apr 26, 2021 4:05am
I'm going to let you deal with this one Rick .......... . Most people only want to look at the good stuff.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #422
  • Edited 4:24am Apr 26, 2021 4:11am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting PeterCaleb
Oh WOW ! This should be good. "Textbook thinking vs real life trial and error". WAIT !! Let me get my buttered popcorn !!
Do you just stick your poopynose into everyone's business all the time? Or is it only on trading forums? You were criticizing Rick before, and myself. So who's side are you on this debate of the market being random or not? Oh right, I forgot you only know how to ride fences and not actually hold a real opinion!

I read everything you posted earlier and I actually agreed with a lot of what you said. The argument before was if it is necessary to have the information you posted about incorporated into a short term day trading strategy, or if using a system like Ricks is good enough, and I think that he made his point, and others on here as well. Even though a lot of what you said is true about how markets behave, it may not be necessary information for some who are holding short term positions!

Now lets move on to what we are talking about NOW which is separate from what you were talking about earlier, since you want to try and stick your nose into what me and Rick are discussing without actually communicating like a normal human being. We are discussing if the market is every truly "random".

Quote
Hey viptrading, you've heard of the concept - building a position right? Hihihi WOW !! Holy crap on a cracker !! What about concurrent market orders? Uuuum .... how about market management strategy? Have you ever day traded? OK ok, what about Stop ..... and reverse?

Don't try and bitch slap me with what I contribute when you don't understand basic market activity. WOW.

I think that this post proves you might actually be autistic. I'm not even joking. You lack basic social interaction skills. I understand market activity, you don't understand when to shutup and let people talk without barging in like a handicapped donkey hee-hawing himself into a conversation spouting random trading terminology.

We are talking about WHY the market moves. My point stands that price moves from point a to point b due to market participants buying and selling. Some participants are bigger than others and some times of day are less active than others.

There are times of low liquidity and high liquidity, times of low volatility and high volatility and those all work together.

You can go and read all this stuff online or study basic economics to see why markets move. Everything else is honestly just theory...

The fact that you think you know what I know is so arrogant it's actually funny. It's like you don't even realize much of an idiot you make yourself look like.

EDIT: I am sorry for all the edits I was writing on my mobile and it was difficult to post...
  • #423
  • Apr 26, 2021 4:21am Apr 26, 2021 4:21am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} I think that this post proves you might actually be autistic. I'm not even joking. You lack basic social interaction skills. I understand market activity, you don't understand when to shutup and let people talk without barging in like a handicapped donley hee-hawing himself into a conversation spouting random trading terminology. We are talking about WHY the market moves. My point stands that moves from point a to point b due to market participants buying and selling. Some participants are bigger than others and some times of day are less...


You're asking someone something that IS observable ON THE CHART and in real life. Nothing more need be said. I know that if I pick my nose too much it bleeds. Understand? Your ability to perform concept building is all that is needed. No not autistic, just have little tolerance for silly people's bullshit. As well as people who "say" they have experience and knowledge but cannot back it up, like your little friend GEfx.

I think you need to go back to school and learn what arrogance IS in the real world and not just what the Google dictionary says. You're not having a private conversation. Eyes open yet? There are people like me who were trading before you were even born (If you are older than that then THAT is even worse for you).

I pity people like you and others on this site.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #424
  • Apr 26, 2021 4:30am Apr 26, 2021 4:30am
WARZONE
Nobody is wrong
Everybody is right
  • #425
  • Apr 26, 2021 4:35am Apr 26, 2021 4:35am
Quote
You're asking someone something that IS observable ON THE CHART and in real life. Nothing more need be said. I know that if I pick my nose too much it bleeds. Understand?

NO!! No one here fucking does you absolute douche dispensary of a human.

Let's ask if anyone here understands what you mean with this post?.........

Honestly I hate to stoop to your level of name calling but man you are relentless with your douchebaggery its astonishing!

You are the literal definition of a troll. I am actually convinced that you may just be JetTrader in disguise, if not you are a reincarnation of him on this forum. You only exist on here to try and belittle people that you don't even know! How fucking pathetic is that?

Once again you failed to actually engage in intellectual debate but just resort to spewing absolute dogshit.
  • #426
  • Apr 26, 2021 4:41am Apr 26, 2021 4:41am
Quote
You're asking someone something that IS observable ON THE CHART and in real life.

This LITERALLY makes no sense "you are asking someone something that is observable on the chart and in real life."?????
Are you drunk? I feel like you think in your messed up head that if you sound stupid enough no one will notice.....lmao

Quote
I think you need to go back to school and learn what arrogance IS in the real world and not just what the Google dictionary says. You're not having a private conversation. Eyes open yet? There are people like me who were trading before you were even born (If you are older than that then THAT is even worse for you).

You lack social skills. You are the only arrogant person here. If your going to be a dick, then expect to get called out on it. If you communicated respectfully then I would have been respectful toward you. Period. You get what you give out. You don't DESERVE anything from anyone you are no-one special.

I know I am not having a private conversation, do you? You are making a fool out of yourself on here do you even realize that? Even if you have been trading for longer than me or even if you understand more about trading than me that doesn't excuse you from being a dickhead.

I never once even tried to undermine your intelligence on here but you have tried to undermine mine and every single other person you engage with on here except for people who praise you, you are actually a narcissist, and you are not fooling anyone.
  • #427
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:37am Apr 26, 2021 5:37am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Well Peter may laugh but I never would. There is free stuff on windows but I use Snagit for $70. It allows me to screen shot my trading activity’s, make small movies for forex factory and updates to my trading plan which runs over 50 pages. Cheers
Thanks Rick for the info, much appreciate.
  • #428
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:38am Apr 26, 2021 5:38am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Lol so I guess using chart projections is only for amateurs now? Technical analysis? You trade only based off news data? Why do so many people on here have to be so arrogant?
Hi! Where I said that drawing lines and rectangles is for amateurs? You can draw as many lines and rectangles as you wish! I have many lines on my charts too. In fact even candles are the lines or little rectangles.
Observer effect
  • #429
  • Apr 26, 2021 6:16am Apr 26, 2021 6:16am
Another brutal truth of day trading is...
that it feeds the ego,
don't let the ego take over you,
we are all better than "it"

regards
Newbie trader
  • #430
  • Apr 26, 2021 6:23am Apr 26, 2021 6:23am
i wonder who is that "we" that is better than the ego:
a super-ego, a trans-personal ego, the wife-husband of my ego, or the ego playing with the ego...
  • #431
  • Apr 26, 2021 6:31am Apr 26, 2021 6:31am
I have to agree with that advice @fex: Don't be fooled by your ego.

KP

Quoting fex
...don't let the ego take over you....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #432
  • Apr 26, 2021 6:56am Apr 26, 2021 6:56am
Quoting loppo0101
i wonder who is that "we" that is better than the ego: a super-ego, a trans-personal ego, the wife-husband of my ego, or the ego playing with the ego...
Hi loppo0101,

"we" is ALL of us ... WE ARE ALL MUCH BETTER THAN OUR EGO
the Ego is the Ego (no super-ego, no ego-centric, no ego-playing, no trans-personal ego ...)

the Ego is that which you carry inside,
that does not stop talking to you,
that does not let you think clearly,
that does not let you improve your trading...
and does not let you lead a real and full life,
it hides, it camouflages itself and it disguises itself,
as in trading a little practice is necessary to identify and "understand" it

regards
Newbie trader
  • #433
  • Edited 7:12am Apr 26, 2021 6:58am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Can you site some proof of your claims? If it's not low volatility then what is causing the market to move during so called dead times? You are talking about "market drifting" and how that = to being random so please prove this with some source to back up your claim... I have studied this market for years and never came across this phenomenon that you speak of.... If you cannot prove it then I suggest you just state it as a theory and not as fact.
Do you know how to establish the Market Frequency of Forex pairs?

If you did, by using data, you would clearly see price only moves away from market frequency only if it has increasing delta to either the Bids or Asks.
If this delta does not increase, price collapses back to market frequency and no structure nor tradeable action occurs.
Price will therefore drift bullish if the passive orders are primary Sellers or drift Bearish if the passive orders are primary Buyers.

Trends develop most of the day as Big players apply pressure to the order book - therefore it mostly has structure and mostly non random.

Its random in content of structure for brief periods- perhaps you could claim it to be a weak trend and therefore is non random.

To me that's a weak argument.

Cheers

Edit. - Proof is in the amount of Bids or Asks it takes to establish an imbalance. This can be measured in content of the total current volume levels we are witnessing.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #434
  • Apr 26, 2021 8:50am Apr 26, 2021 8:50am
Quote
Do you know how to establish the Market Frequency of Forex pairs?

No, this is the first time I am hearing of this terminology, like I said, I cannot understand something I have NEVER hear of lol. I tried searching up this term on Google and nothing came up except for "high frequency trading", which isn't what you mean, so I guess this is something you made up? Or maybe it's just your way of defining something in a different way, forgive my ignorance...I am just trying to understand where you got this information from.

Quote
If you did, by using data, you would clearly see price only moves away from market frequency only if it has increasing delta to either the Bids or Asks.
If this delta does not increase, price collapses back to market frequency and no structure nor tradeable action occurs.
Price will therefore drift bullish if the passive orders are primary Sellers or drift Bearish if the passive orders are primary Buyers.

Ah, I am starting to understand this abstract concept a bit...it is an interesting way of looking at things, but it is not a fact, since you have not proved that this "market frequency" is real, but lets assume that it is, for argument sake.

Quote
Price will therefore drift bullish if the passive orders are primary Sellers or drift Bearish if the passive orders are primary Buyers.
This explanation proves it isn't random, even with your view using this "market frequency" definition it isn't random since random cannot be explained! If you can explain why price is moving before hand this = not random. At the end of the day Rick I don't care how you choose to view the market, if it helps you more power to you man! But, I just don't like when people say t he market is "random". Just because we cannot profit from the market 100% of the time does not make it random!!

Quote
Proof is in the amount of Bids or Asks it takes to establish an imbalance. This can be measured in content of the total current volume levels we are witnessing.

Please show some evidence where you are able personally to see imbalances....this is not a simple task to do, you would need to get all the information from all brokers and financial institutions to be able to really know what the real "imbalance" is. This type of information is not accessible to the average day trader....

Quote
Trends develop most of the day as Big players apply pressure to the order book - therefore it mostly has structure and mostly non random.

Yes, big players do move price, that is true, and therefore it has structure and isn't random at all lol not "mostly" not at all.

Quote
Its random in content of structure for brief periods- perhaps you could claim it to be a weak trend and therefore is non random.
To me that's a weak argument.

Let's just call a spade a spade, it is important to use the right terms especially when they can make a new person feel overwhelmed. When a new trader here's "random" they think "oh man I cannot make money trading if it's random" and it will scare them away from learning, also if something is random then there is no way to LEARN, since if it's random, that is it, closed case, but that is not the case here, we can DEFINE why the price moves therefore it cannot be random.

Look, I know what you mean, but those periods of "low volume" or "low frequency" however you want to word it ( I don't care) I actually think your explanation is quite interesting and I would like to learn more about it if you could source some stuff for me to read on the subject, aren't random they are just "calm" not moving that much. But this "calmness" can be predicted so you can avoid trading "dead" markets if that is your choice, and there are tools out there that predict volatility based on current orders and certain times of day, based on the past volume during that time and even current volatility. Here is an argument for not trading during "dead" times. It is best to trade during decent volatility because;

1. It offers higher liquidity, though with Forex trading liquidity is never really an issue since the market is so huge.
2. lower spreads
3. You can catch bigger moves faster (do not have to wait to long to hold your position)

This really only matters for day traders though, since swing traders or position traders will hold positions for long periods of time, these areas of low volatility will not effect their over all view of the market...

Another thing to point out (contrarian view) here is that in my opinion these dead times are actually much easier to trade since the market usually stays within a tight range, if it wasn't for spreads this would actually be the best time to trade since you could just trade a few tops and bottoms and get out before the big moves happen.

There are actually traders who do this right now, in Asia specifically many traders prefer these types of conditions as it allows them to scalp tops and bottoms rather than determine a "trend" they scalp a few pips and get out, it is all a stylistic choice....of course if the market is in an extremely tight range like 6 pips it really would be quite hard to profit from this due to spread.

Anyways, Rick I am not arguing with you really we are just simply having a conversation about definitions. Please, do not take my posts the wrong way! I wish you success in your trading.
  • #435
  • Apr 26, 2021 8:58am Apr 26, 2021 8:58am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} No, this is the first time I am hearing of this terminology, like I said, I cannot understand something I have NEVER hear of lol. I tried searching up this term on Google and nothing came up except for "high frequency trading", which isn't what you mean, so I guess this is something you made up? Or maybe it's just your way of defining something in a different way, forgive my ignorance...I am just trying to understand where you got this information from. {quote} Ah, I am starting to understand this abstract concept a bit...it is an interesting...
Great lesson, very useful indeed...you have a mentor soul!
Thanks you for taking the time and share your thoughts!
James
  • #436
  • Apr 26, 2021 9:18am Apr 26, 2021 9:18am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} No, this is the first time I am hearing of this terminology, like I said, I cannot understand something I have NEVER hear of lol. I tried searching up this term on Google and nothing came up except for "high frequency trading", which isn't what you mean, so I guess this is something you made up? Or maybe it's just your way of defining something in a different way, forgive my ignorance...I am just trying to understand where you got this information from. {quote} Ah, I am starting to understand this abstract concept a bit...it is an interesting...
You 2 seem to be in agreement on about 98% of this, with the discussion being how to label or view the markets in times when it is ranging, bracketing, drifting, whatever someone wants to call it. I've often thought about the currency pairs in terms of their equilibrium price, which is always in flux (sometime with more volatility that at other times), with PA as being the measure of intent of the market participant, but price on a moment to moment basis being some standard deviation, plus or minus, from the equilibrium price. While that sounds similar to RickM's use of frequency, I know it's not the same. But, thinking about price in this manner is extremely helpful in trading, IMHO. Where some suggest that traders focus on price, this is an idea that helps you digest price and put current PA into perspective. Now, how someone digests this and trades it, is up to them. But putting together little mental pricing models and focusing on price in the context of the model rather than just moving up and down, is very helpful.

I think you both have good thoughts and ideas on this topic and thank for for discussing them here. So, is the PA random or non-random while bracketing/drifting? I think I am closer to RickM on this than Viptrading if I just use my rational mind. But, Viptrading gets some style points for using the term "poopynose" a few posts back, and he wins--by a nose (of course I'm just kidding...no offense to either of you!). Good trading everyone (been trading both the EA and GA today...love you guys from Australia)!
  • #437
  • Apr 26, 2021 10:18am Apr 26, 2021 10:18am
Quoting viptrading
{quote}Ah, I am starting to understand this abstract concept a bit...it is an interesting way of looking at things, but it is not a fact, since you have not proved that this "market frequency" is real, but lets assume that it is, for argument sake.
Very strange approach. Why you think someone should prove you anything? What for? RickM has a lot of posts and you can read them all. It is pretty easy to understand what he is talking about.

If you want simple explanation, here it is: imagine there are a lot of green candles and the volume increases (or suddenly the volume is very big (comparing to the average volume for the pair)). So it seems there are more buys then sells. Yes or yes? Okay. And then the candle is still green, the volume is still huge. But the Delta (difference between buys and sells) is RED. That mean, that there are more sells then buys. But how? How can it be? The candles are green! That mean that big player SOLD out. He used a lot of small trades to put the price to the higher level and then just sold out using limit orders or by triggering stops.
At that moment you need to sell too.

Before I met RickM and understoon his approach I was trading about the same way, but I was using unusual distance to catch that situations and reverse candles/Stoch. But there were some fake entries. But if check for volume (Real volume from futures) and for Delta the picture will be more clear. If using correct money management, hedging, distances and lot sizes it works pretty well.

I don't know why futures and forex spot are exactlyt the same and how can it be, but I was trading crypto for years and there are the same "strange" behaviour on all major "decenralized" exchanges. Once you want to buy or sell big amount the same amount will be executed (from whom?) on all exchanges at the same millisecond.

I don't like to discuss about manipulations, conspiracies and other stuff. I just don't have the answer. But my first idea of trading many years ago was about to track/chase big players and just act like little fish near the big whale. That's why I like that approach very much.

But I don't care if you will trade like this, or not. Or you will draw lines and rectangles. Or you will use MACD, or SUP/RES... it doesn't matter. If you are good trading pullbacks from 200 MA - why not? There are, for example, several great approaches here on ff. For example Laura's thread or trading pivots. I know one trader and he is very good at trading pullbacks from 13 MA on 15m TF. So why not if it works for him. As for me I'm trading only using EA (I'm just not so fast and lazy), also I don't like if my trade last more that few minutes (max 1 hour). So RickM's approach is the best for me.

P.S. My explanation is very simple and in real trading everything is more complicated as I described. Also I'm not a guru yet about that Vol/Delta, and I'm not here to teach. So please do not try to find faults with my words. I just want to say that work with data, dynamic calculations, fast execution and all that computer stuff is much better then drawing rectangles. Just because it is much faster and accurate.
Observer effect
  • #438
  • Apr 26, 2021 11:45am Apr 26, 2021 11:45am
I am not aware of DOM traders in FX, but if it exists, a trader can recognize an order imbalance because the one side will get thinner than the other and will stay that way for a short period of time.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #439
  • Edited 12:22pm Apr 26, 2021 12:12pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quote
Very strange approach. Why you think someone should prove you anything? What for? RickM has a lot of posts and you can read them all. It is pretty easy to understand what he is talking about.

He doesn't have to "prove" anything to me. I am simply asking for a source that proves his definition is correct, otherwise its just a "concept" made up by him, and that's fine I respect that, however it doesn't prove randomness it's just his way of looking at things....

Quote
If you want simple explanation, here it is: imagine there are a lot of green candles and the volume increases (or suddenly the volume is very big (comparing to the average volume for the pair)). So it seems there are more buys then sells. Yes or yes? Okay. And then the candle is still green, the volume is still huge. But the Delta (difference between buys and sells) is RED. That mean, that there are more sells then buys. But how? How can it be? The candles are green! That mean that big player SOLD out. He used a lot of small trades to put the price...

I would need an actual example of this to give you an answer as to why that is happening. And, please don't answer with "I don't have to prove anything to you." That isn't going to work here. I am sure there is a logical explanation for why the volume data you see does not match up with price in that instance...It probably has to do with lack of information...what is your explanation that it's random?

Lol...You are talking about your trading "strategy" and how you use it to an advantage, and maybe it works for you and Rick! I a happy for you honestly no sarcasm, but that has nothing to do with "why markets move" your system cannot see everything, all orders and understand 100% why everything is happening, no one can do this....so all I am saying is that doesn't mean it's "random" the price is always moving for a reason even if you don't know why...

Quote
I don't like to discuss about manipulations, conspiracies and other stuff. I just don't have the answer. But my first idea of trading many years ago was about to track/chase big players and just act like little fish near the big whale. That's why I like that approach very much.

Look man, you just said yourself you don't have the answer, so why are you defending something you don't even understand....that's kind of a "strange approach"
If you are making money trading with Rick, honestly I am no hater, do you and I wish you the best, but don't try and come at me for asking for proof of the market being random, the Burdon of proof is on anyone who thinks they can prove it is random, not me, because it's already proven that it is not.

Quote
But I don't care if you will trade like this, or not. Or you will draw lines and rectangles. Or you will use MACD, or SUP/RES... it doesn't matter. If you are good trading pullbacks from 200 MA - why not?

And, I don't care if you want to trade using Ricks method. If it works for you then great, but that doesn't mean you can come on here and change definitions just because you have a successful trading strategy.

Quote
My explanation is very simple and in real trading everything is more complicated as I described. Also I'm not a guru yet about that Vol/Delta, and I'm not here to teach. So please do not try to find faults with my words.

I appreciate your efforts of trying to explain how it works. I myself have my own style of trading, but more power to you guys. I am not trying to fault your words, just trying to explain to you guys that the market is not random, it never has been.
  • #440
  • Apr 26, 2021 12:14pm Apr 26, 2021 12:14pm
Also, I just want to add that I mean no offense to Rick or his followers, I am not interested in learning your strategy since I have my own already. When I asked for proof I meant outside sources, like perhaps research papers on the subject proving the market is random, even "sometimes".
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