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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #401
  • Apr 26, 2021 1:39am Apr 26, 2021 1:39am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I think this guy is trying to antagonize a good trader into giving him something that he might try to monetize later. He has never posted a single hard right edge analysis. Not one thing about entries. Not one thing about exits. Not one thing about stops. Not one thing about return of capital risked. He is all about "I have the answers and you don't". That attitude is meant to drive traffic in his direction. Everyone, and I mean literally EVERYONE is stupid except for him. This is not a trader, this is two bit salesman. He takes the "no...


Only simple minded people would just blindly believe and follow you jimmyboy. There's nothing you just said that is real and true and accurate. Nothing. The proof is right in front of everyone, but first they'd need to cut the leash fools like you have on them.

You're a fool online and probably a fool in the flesh too.

People who want to learn without having to eat the crap you people dish out WILL learn. You're a toffee apple gone rotten jimmyboy.

Have fun with that.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #402
  • Apr 26, 2021 2:05am Apr 26, 2021 2:05am
Quoting Divergence
Do any of you buy what the OP states here cause i dont "However, short term patterns and repetitive short term cycles with predictive value, do not exist. There is no “secret,” there is no predictive ability, its random, like a roulette wheel. That is why you cannot make any significant money in the long term from day trading".ive been day trading for 20 yrs and the last 8 day trading the emini nasdaq on a 20 chart and making money every week
I predicted that Eur will drop today and it seems its in the making. You need to take the longer term signals in consideration to fine tune your day trading.
  • #403
  • Apr 26, 2021 2:07am Apr 26, 2021 2:07am
It was based on solid basic principles, not just a shout or shot in the dark, i do my homework first.
  • #404
  • Apr 26, 2021 2:10am Apr 26, 2021 2:10am
Three high volume bars before the current one.
  • #405
  • Apr 26, 2021 2:21am Apr 26, 2021 2:21am
Quoting Bakker
Three high volume bars before the current one.
Hi Bakker

Best you show us a chart or we have no idea what you are talking about. This thread lacks charts which may help mask some idiotic comments.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #406
  • Apr 26, 2021 2:46am Apr 26, 2021 2:46am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} No. It's never random. It's just harder to predict at certain times. There is always buying and selling going on which causes the market to rise or fall. Just because your system or mine does not see a move coming does not make it random. There is no such thing as random for short periods in this market, it is either random or it is not random and in the case of the FOREX market the price of a particular currency is never "random" In the case of a roulette wheel the outcome of the spins are random...
Hi viptrading

Can I explain what information data has taught me - its just my opinion but data proves I am right.

The market has a frequency where price rides the mid point of the wave when no pressure is being applied to the Bids or asks. It may go up or down 4 pips from its core frequency but without increasing volume, it only drifts. There is no pressure on the Bids & Asks for a few hours every day, price therefore never moves more that 50% of its amplitude distance ever. The data shows no imbalance on the order books and no structure is created that seems tradeable.
"
It is random, we just see untradeable drifting action without structure.

The below chart is a three hour period that's "random" on EURUSD
Then the big players enter .............................................................................................................

P.S. Peter missed this, what else did he miss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU random.jpg Size: 201 KB
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #407
  • Apr 26, 2021 2:48am Apr 26, 2021 2:48am
Quoting Bakker
{quote} I predicted
Quoting Bakker
{quote} It was based on solid basic principles
Quoting Bakker
{quote} Three high volume bars before the current one.
Observer effect
  • #408
  • Edited 3:48am Apr 26, 2021 2:51am | Edited 3:48am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Bakker Best you show us a chart or we have no idea what you are talking about. This thread lacks charts which may help mask some idiotic comments.
You may laugh at me, but I dont know how to post a graph!!! If I take a screenshot it comes out very small after been posted.
  • #409
  • Apr 26, 2021 3:51am Apr 26, 2021 3:51am
Quoting Bakker
{quote} You may laugh at me, but I dont know how to post a graph!!! If I take a screenshot it comes out very small after been posted.
Well Peter may laugh but I never would.

There is free stuff on windows but I use Snagit for $70. It allows me to screen shot my trading activity’s, make small movies for forex factory and updates to my trading plan which runs over 50 pages.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #410
  • Apr 26, 2021 3:59am Apr 26, 2021 3:59am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi viptrading Can I explain what information data has taught me - its just my opinion but data proves I am right. The market has a frequency where price rides the mid point of the wave when no pressure is being applied to the Bids or asks. It may go up or down 4 pips from its core frequency but without increasing volume, it only drifts. There is no pressure on the Bids & Asks for a few hours every day, price therefore never moves more that 50% of its amplitude distance ever. The data shows no imbalance on the order books and no structure...
I believe you are confusing low volatility with being random....

I get what you mean though, it is much harder to trade during times of low volatility if you are looking for larger amounts of pips per trade, but many scalpers actually like low volatility because they trade the range...

Again, the market is never "random". Everything can be logically explained if you do your research.

Basically random does not = low volatility l, if anything that chart shows structure....a time of day where market participants were not very active so that actually proves it's not random by definition.
  • #411
  • Apr 26, 2021 4:27am Apr 26, 2021 4:27am
Take a look at this chart of EURUSD. You can see during Tokyo session the market was in a tight range of about 18 pips from high to low, and then the market broke out during EUR and USD session which historically are the highest volatile times for this pair, obviously.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.PNG Size: 43 KB

So, you see there is nothing random about this at all, in fact it is quite typical behavior for the pair...

Of course, not every day is like this, there are some days where the EURUSD is stuck in a tight range all day, or a large range or simply behaves abnormal all together. This is what makes day trading so hard, trying to figure out WHY the market is doing what it's doing is the difficult part and no-one person or firm really every knows exactly where the market is going to go with 100% accuracy, and there is a reason for this. The reason is that the market is too big for anyone to know all the data all at once, and if there is someone who does, that person probably controls the entire market all together, in which case you can build your conspiracies from there lol.

But, conspiracies aside, we all know that the Forex market is the largest financial market in the world with money exchanging at a rate of more than 7 trillion per day or something like that, and with EURUSD being the most popularly traded currency pair, it would be impossible for any one person or firm to know where the market is going to go (in the short term) due to lack of information. Now, once we get to longer term trading it gets a lot more easier to predict since we have more time to digest the market information, and make predictions based on that, but even then there are other outside factors such as natural disasters, politics, or (random) events that may come into play to move the market unpredictably.

Basically the Forex market or any tradable market is like the ocean, with waves coming in big and small. When the water is "calm" this means low volatility and it may be hard or even impossible to trade or "surf" the waters since there is nothing for you to trade off if the market is not moving, and then you have the big waves that come in "volatility" that cause the market to move up and down or trend in big swings, this metaphorically can be represented as being the moon which controls the waves in real life. I apologize in advance if my analogy made it more complicated to understand but I was trying to simplify it...
  • #412
  • Apr 26, 2021 4:44am Apr 26, 2021 4:44am
Quoting viptrading
Take a look at this chart of EURUSD. You can see during Tokyo session the market was in a tight range of about 18 pips from high to low, and then the market broke out during EUR and USD session which historically are the highest volatile times for this pair, obviously. {image} So, you see there is nothing random about this at all, in fact it is quite typical behavior for the pair... Of course, not every day is like this, there are some days where the EURUSD is stuck in a tight range all day, or a large range or simply behaves abnormal all together....

I agree that market isn't random, but the price is predictable.
For example: GU short term target is 1.37600
EURUSD will hit 1.22400 (this is longer term) / You need to analyze the smaller timeframes for entries
  • #413
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:20am Apr 26, 2021 5:20am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} I believe you are confusing low volatility with being random.... I get what you mean though, it is much harder to trade during times of low volatility if you are looking for larger amounts of pips per trade, but many scalpers actually like low volatility because they trade the range... Again, the market is never "random". Everything can be logically explained if you do your research. Basically random does not = low volatility l, if anything that chart shows structure....a time of day where market participants were not very active so that...
Hi viptrading

It has nothing to do with low volatility, I don't think you understood what I mean by market frequency. On that Tokyo range, price only moved 6 pips from its frequency, that's not much interaction by a big player. What you pointed out is the distance between the high and low which is 18 pips.

That's market drifting, the real volume created movement or expansion size was only 6 pips - most movement was only 3 pips.

If you can picture a Sine Wave that surrounds price, you will understand how expansion is the pressure of increasing volume that separates price away from market frequency.

Its indeed random and drifts for short periods in a day.
Drifting up or down is random created by current density of passive limit orders that sit on a chart.

But thank you for your explanations on how you see the markets, nice concepts so lets agree to disagree.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #414
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:32am Apr 26, 2021 5:32am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi viptrading It has nothing to do with low volatility, I don't think you understood what I mean by market frequency. On that Tokyo range, price only moved 6 pips from its frequency, that's not much interaction by a big player. What you pointed out is the distance between the high and low which is 18 pips. That's market drifting, the real volume created movement or expansion size was only 6 pips - most movement was only 3 pips. If you can picture a Sine Wave that surrounds price, you will understand how expansion is the pressure of increasing...
Can you site some proof of your claims? If it's not low volatility then what is causing the market to move during so called dead times?

You are talking about "market drifting" and how that = to being random so please prove this with some source to back up your claim...

I have studied this market for years and never came across this phenomenon that you speak of....
If you cannot prove it then I suggest you just state it as a theory and not as fact.
  • #415
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:44am Apr 26, 2021 5:44am
Oh WOW ! This should be good.

"Textbook thinking vs real life trial and error". WAIT !! Let me get my buttered popcorn !!
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #416
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:48am Apr 26, 2021 5:48am
Quoting RickM
{quote}But thank you for your explanations on how you see the markets, nice concepts so lets agree to disagree.
Hi RickM!

Please stop posting and enjoy your holidays. Let guys draw their lines and rectangles
Observer effect
  • #417
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:49am Apr 26, 2021 5:49am
Hey viptrading, you've heard of the concept - building a position right? Hihihi WOW !! Holy crap on a cracker !! What about concurrent market orders? Uuuum .... how about market management strategy? Have you ever day traded? OK ok, what about Stop ..... and reverse?

Don't try and bitch slap me with what I contribute when you don't understand basic market activity. WOW.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #418
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:52am Apr 26, 2021 5:52am
It's really very funny. What I spoke about re: Liquidity clearly went right over many people's heads. But the in-fighting and right-fighting continues over the basics. Mmmm. I think maybe some straitjackets are in order.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #419
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:56am Apr 26, 2021 5:56am
Quote
I don't think you understood what I mean by market frequency. On that Tokyo range, price only moved 6 pips from its frequency, that's not much interaction by a big player. What you pointed out is the distance between the high and low which is 18 pips.

Of course I cannot understand what you mean if you don't explain in detail Rick.

The reason I used that chart was to explain why at a certain time of day the market was not as active so the price did not move as much as during the active trading session. I was attempting to explain a complicated subject in a simple way but of course the actual mechanics behind why the price moves is a lot more complicated. There are many factors that move price but basically in a nutshell it's just orders going in and out of the market. Sometimes those orders are big and sometimes they are small so they won't effect the market price as much.

If it's not that then what you are suggesting is an artificial market being manipulated during dead times until the "big players" come in to move the market. But if that is the case then what about the medium sized players, or small players that also take part in Forex transactions?

I believe you may be missing the big picture....
  • #420
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:59am Apr 26, 2021 5:59am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi RickM! Please stop posting and enjoy your holidays. Let guys draw their lines and rectangles
Lol so I guess using chart projections is only for amateurs now? Technical analysis? You trade only based off news data?

Why do so many people on here have to be so arrogant?
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