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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #341
  • Apr 23, 2021 8:34pm Apr 23, 2021 8:34pm
Quoting murcott
{quote} Can you recommend some books on this topic? Probably what helped you in trading
Arr for that I don’t have any to recommend. I haven’t read a singe trading book so far...

Trading currently is my hobby and little extra money. My charting analysis is based on statistics which is my background. Psychology and money management based on previous experience esp. when doing research early in career (e.g. backup plan, risk assessment, expectation of success and failure and how to deal with them).

But I would recommend to watch a video. That keeps me humble and thankful for trading without blowing an account so far.
And that is talking science not just some life coaching.

Inserted Video
  • #342
  • Apr 23, 2021 10:58pm Apr 23, 2021 10:58pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} As I understand it, RickM tracks liquidity in the forex market as he considers his trading opportunities. Here, you seem to suggest that a bank's debt liquidity plays a roll in the banks forex trading operations, and by extension, into the liquidity analysis that RickM considers each day. I'm trying to understand the link you've made here. Assuming that the bank is not currently under financial stress, how does debt liquidity impact the bank's forex operations? And unless all banks are under financial stress, how does debt liquidity considerations...


To begin, I only said two words. Debt and liquidity. The assumption people always make, is that these two words can only mean or refer to a select number of things. In the industry there are other names for Debt Liquidity. The easiest similarity in one context to explain this could be - RickM has a $100,000 account. He uses a max of 10% for ongoing exposure. He also has a breach limit function in place so even IF he tries to go beyond the 10% his operational 'system' won't let him. In reality, I doubt RickM would use 100% of his funds to place trades. So, at any one time, he holds at least 90% dormant exposure, or unused funds. Banks do not operate like a single person would. Same goes for large institutions and multinational corporations. I'm sure many have heard the term "Future projections"? In the money business, this means 'having money in reserve for a rainy day, a stormy day ..... or a great day." EG - Post GFC, the banks etc that fell were absorbed as were their assets and liabilities, both on-book and off. People need to stop thinking in literal terms. Perhaps at certain times of day or week, there might be a designated amount of money positioned, however, just because the average Joe only has $1000 in his trading account, is no reflection of what other participants have in THEIR accounts.

Debt Liquidity is a category of assigned management. So it does not need to strictly refer to 'financial stress/hardship'. Traders usually take a stance on one side of an argument or the other. But this is imprudent thinking. Liquidity is always, and has always been based on global not local. Anyone who has traded stocks knows that when a float comes up the market reacts differently. When an Exec is retaining or releasing stock options the market reacts in certain ways. Liquidity is a trickle down system so forex traders need to understand that "what you see is NOT what you get". I'm not against the way RickM and others do their trading, nor how someone uses volume, I use it too. It's about a key-hole view vs a door completely open view. What I'm talking about is opinion perception vs how structures actually operate. Liquidity is just a word. For me, I think of it in global parameters. Not 'fundamental analysis' vs technical analysis etc, but in line with future parameters. The point of looking at Liquidity in reference to real life is this - the money in your bank savings account is NOT yours. It belongs to the money system that connects to it. For disbelievers or naysayers, go read the PDS for your account from cover to cover and learn something. Liquidity in certain contexts is the same. People like you GEfx are too concerned with the literal mechanics and neglect the fact that (as a figurative example) "Mohammed Ali would always outdo Mike Tyson". Why? Ali understands the subtleties while Tyson is focused on the more conspicuous. Now this is just a metaphor for how someone values information. Not how much but of what quality.

The futures as is with all markets, holds around 40% joint cap fulfillment. This is law so whether all do it or not is debatable. This figure may have changed so anyone interested please check for yourself. In basic language, this means that they have to withhold a specified portion at all times for 'bail-outs or bail-ins'. Eg - 1929. Doubters, go do some history research. But these caps are there for survivability of the financial organism and NOT the 'market at large'. Again, a private trader with a dinky $1000 brokerage account would never know of this or learn about this unless they broaden their learning horizons. The same goes for day trading. It's a part of something. So keeping one's head up one's ass because it's easier is financial suicide.

I scalp, and momentum trade as well as seek a balance for other things. I do four withdrawals per week now to stay ahead of the curve. I do understand and can appreciate that people want to KISS, but for anyone who took losses from GFC, or other situations, Liquidity is just a word. I'm not sure if what I have explained is clear enough for people. I have tried many times to show people that there is a difference between trading and speculating, just as remonpilip seemed to intend for this thread in his/her own way.

It would take so very long for me to speak about everything I have learned over the years. But I can assure people that this is real and verifiable in real life. So no ego trip, no superiority and no arrogance. Simply real life knowledge and experience. Honestly, it disturbs me how people get these two mixed up. Perhaps they have a nice big chip on their shoulder, or perhaps people have trouble dealing with reality. Whatever it is it's their problem. All I can do is explain it and describe it and then they can activate their brain to learn.

For you GEfx, I hope this sheds light on .... not just what, but why, I have said what I have.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #343
  • Apr 24, 2021 3:56am Apr 24, 2021 3:56am
The brutal truth of doing business:

More than 50 percent of small businesses fail in the first four years.

 

  1. In fact, of all small businesses started in 2011:

    1. 4 percent made it to the second year
    2. 3 percent made it to the third year
    3. 9 percent made it to the fourth year
    4. 3 percent made it to the fifth year



  2. Leading causes of small business failure:

    1. Incompetence: 46 percent;
    2. Unbalanced experience or lack of managerial experience: 30 percent;
    3. Catchall category (includes neglect, fraud, and disaster): 13 percent; and
    4. Lack of experiences in line of goods or services: 11 percent.
    5. https://smallbiztrends.com/2016/11/s...-business.html





So why do you expect every body make money in trading.
It's easy? Of course it's not. It is easy to open and run small business? Of course it's not.
Another view,if everybody was suitable to run own business,there will be no place for worker left.
So why would different rules apply for trading?
Some people can do it,some cannot.

Whether you think you can, or you think you can't,you're right. H.F.
  • #344
  • Apr 24, 2021 5:46am Apr 24, 2021 5:46am
Quoting Simply-Me
The brutal truth of doing business: More than 50 percent of small businesses fail in the first four years. In fact, of all small businesses started in 2011: 4 percent made it to the second year 3 percent made it to the third year 9 percent made it to the fourth year 3 percent made it to the fifth year Leading causes of small business failure: Incompetence:...
I agree with this view. Also capital problems applies to both businesses and traders. Surviving losing months etc.
  • #345
  • Apr 24, 2021 10:16am Apr 24, 2021 10:16am
Quoting Simply-Me
The brutal truth of doing business: More than 50 percent of small businesses fail in the first four years. In fact, of all small businesses started in 2011: 4 percent made it to the second year 3 percent made it to the third year 9 percent made it to the fourth year 3 percent made it to the fifth year Leading causes of small business failure: Incompetence:...
The statistics from smallnustrend.com does not match your claims of success rates for small business. It was just like the OP stated that 0.4% traders “succeeded” in trading in a year but in fact the very same study already stated 50% did not lose a cent. So why is that difference?

for instance, 56% of small business started in 2014 made its way to year 4. This ~50%/4years can be found in the first link. I think your point 1 or its source is wrong.

thanks
  • #346
  • Apr 24, 2021 10:22am Apr 24, 2021 10:22am
Quoting TimeTells
Brutal truth. Day trading the market. Good title. Two camps. Mechanical (EA) trading, or Observational (manual) trading. In the end the market is going to do one of two things, imho. It will go somewhere to get something, and then come back. Or it will continue (with trapped AND winning traders) and go on a longer ride (grind/trend). This may or may not be a reality, but it's how I view the market each day as a manual day trader. So Mechanical (EA) trading I guess would be looking for a now event (TA/PA etc) to trigger a new trade. Observational...
Are you a bear?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #347
  • Apr 24, 2021 10:30am Apr 24, 2021 10:30am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} To begin, I only said two words. Debt and liquidity. The assumption people always make, is that these two words can only mean or refer to a select number of things. In the industry there are other names for Debt Liquidity.
With all due respect...

As you stated in a previous post, it is important to consider context, foresight, implications, etc. The context of your use of the term debt liquidity was in the banking industry, where debt liquidity has a very specific meaning. I’m still struggling with how RickM should or would consider bank debt liquidity in his analysis of liquidity in the forex market.

I attempted to provide a link from debt liquidity to forex trading at a bank, by assuming a bank had failed in managing debt liquidity and become financially unstable, thereby making their forex trading operations unstable or unavailable. I apologized for trying to work through the point you were trying to make, but I’m still confused as to that point. Your comments about liquidity being global not local, liquidity being a trickle down system, and how this is opinion perception vs how structure operates, seem to be aimed at liquidity in general, rather than forex liquidity. And while general liquidity requirements across the world are the basis of forex and forex liquidity, as a forex trader, I’m only concerned about forex liquidity, and specifically, the likely flow of liquidity as depicted in market structure. So again, if RickM is tracking forex liquidity, how does debt liquidity at a bank or within the banking industry impact RickM and other liquidity trackers (RickM sorry if I’m not referring to you correctly or accurately).
  • #348
  • Apr 24, 2021 10:42am Apr 24, 2021 10:42am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} The statistics from smallnustrend.com does not match your claims of success rates for small business. It was just like the OP stated that 0.4% traders “succeeded” in trading in a year but in fact the very same study already stated 50% did not lose a cent. So why is that difference? for instance, 56% of small business started in 2014 made its way to year 4. This ~50%/4years can be found in the first link. I think your point 1 or its source is wrong. thanks
Well in that case truth might lie somewhere else we shall continue to seek for it.
Whether you think you can, or you think you can't,you're right. H.F.
  • #349
  • Apr 24, 2021 10:51am Apr 24, 2021 10:51am
Quoting Simply-Me
{quote} Well in that case truth might lie somewhere else we shall continue to seek for it.
I quickly checked the statistics in Hong Kong.

in 2017, about 160k companies were registered as new companies in Hong Kong. In 2018, the total number of registered companies increased by ~110k roughly
continuation of company registration in HK requires tax settlement, continuation fee. It has cost to keep the company in the book.

The >50% survival year YoY is a more convincing number than the single digit. It applies in HK and also two of your links in 2011 and 2014 respectively

https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/...8010500550.htm
  • #350
  • Apr 24, 2021 12:10pm Apr 24, 2021 12:10pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I quickly checked the statistics in Hong Kong. in 2017, about 160k companies were registered as new companies in Hong Kong. In 2018, the total number of registered companies increased by ~110k roughly continuation of company registration in HK requires tax settlement, continuation fee. It has cost to keep the company in the book. The >50% survival year YoY is a more convincing number than the single digit. It applies in HK and also two of your links in 2011 and 2014 respectively https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/...8010500550.htm...

If numbers of opened businesses each year were same as number of participants trying forex,the survival %%% would be much same.
Whether you think you can, or you think you can't,you're right. H.F.
  • #351
  • Apr 24, 2021 6:28pm Apr 24, 2021 6:28pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote}
Are you a bear?

Hi Maverick,

Am I a bear lol. Mate I trade more like a lion imo.

I don't (well, now) expend my energy just chasing the prey.

I wait for the prey to do something first (price expansion from a moderate range is one example), then I observe where the prey moves to.

ie I don't trade a breakout just because it broke out - I might trade it later after a confirmation, which sometimes may be one hour or many hours - the market I believe wants to do something or go somewhere, but it doesn't necessarily do it immediately.

If I was to trade 'immediately' it would usually be a quick reversal trade at an exhaustion area, but unless you have extra info (read Rick's examples with futures data) then you may end up being one of a herd who are ALL wanting to 'reverse trade' at THAT point.

The market can then be cruel to a herd all wanting to do the same thing at the same time.


So I now wait till the prey (the market) runs into a deadend enclave and has to turn back.

Then I try and pick off the weak of the prey as they later run right back into my zone.


It's brutal, the waiting, though. Instinct (or hunger, as in this analogy) has me wanting to trade as I 'see' setups all over the place. Prey that are running around in all directions. But if I conserve my (trading) energy and wait for the prey to run back "to" me, I can often pick up a meal.


I don't trade often, and I don;t trade at all the times when I might "want" to. It was a brutal learning experience.

cheers






Inserted Video
  • #352
  • Edited 7:52pm Apr 24, 2021 7:26pm | Edited 7:52pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Maverick, Am I a bear lol. Mate I trade more like a lion imo. I don't (well, now) expend my energy just chasing the prey. I wait for the prey to do something first (price expansion from a moderate range is one example), then I observe where the prey moves to. ie I don't trade a breakout just because it broke out - I might trade it later after a confirmation, which sometimes may be one hour or many hours - the market I believe wants to do something or go somewhere, but it doesn't necessarily do it immediately. If I was to trade 'immediately'...
Hi Timetells

You know George got it right when he talked about the herd, it’s a beast in reality.

Traders here talk about the Bankers always controlling the market direction whenever it suits them, but the data I see doesn’t prove the bankers always have as much control as we would expect.

The volume created by the herd at the breakout is far greater than the volume bankers apply to the market to cause a directional change. Bankers volume cannot stop the beast which is the extreme volume created by breakout traders entering the market, that includes trend traders, stop loss limit orders and reversal traders.
That volume is a beast, uncontrollable in power for short periods preventing the bankers from executing any market direction change.

The Herd now has the power and all the bankers can do is feed them orders, but changing the direction is a financial disaster for them if they attempt this in the short term.
An example was EURUSD on Friday night which was an incredible trading night for me.
There was a breakout near 1.2047 and an attempt by a big player to halt the bullish move. Their method was too apply a large block of orders 3 pips higher than the current price but ensure that its density was denser than the current long orders that were attacking the market. On four attempts to break through the level around 1.2047, price was absorbed preventing any upward movement, causing it to turn bearish. When price started to turn up on those four occasions, that order block was restocked with more orders to maintain the block. I know this because I could see these orders been added in real time to that level taking 4 seconds on each occasion.

That block would have cost them great expense.
The whole exercise only achieved a bearish collapse of around 20 pips - that was it.

At great expense, 20 measly pips.
Then the herd destroy the big player and it ran another 40 pips.

Bankers would have to join the herd to gain financial advantage.
We could argue that was their plan, either way on Friday at times the Big Players were just passengers like the rest of us retail mob. Once those breakout traders disappeared- The bankers are smiling again.

The beast of the herd is therefore more powerful than the crooked banker. That’s the brutal truth they keep from us.

PS. I took three shorts each time price was absorbed, because I was able to see with clarity what their plans were.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #353
  • Edited 8:15pm Apr 24, 2021 7:55pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Timetells You know George got it right when he talked about the herd, it’s a beast in reality. Traders here talk about the Bankers always controlling the market direction whenever it suits them, but the data I see doesn’t prove the bankers always have as much control as we would expect. The volume created by the herd at the breakout is far greater than the volume bankers apply to the market to cause a directional change. Bankers volume cannot stop the beast which is the extreme volume created by breakout traders entering the market, that...

Hi RickM
It's again me. I can't stop talking when they talk about George. I can exactly know now about 300 pips (this may sound impossible but truth is on the charts) move from one week before thanks to George. It's different. I want to say that I started from there. Even daily targets with precise price direction of the game. I am trying to merge my method with yours so that I could have machine gun in my hands. I see you like exhaustions and I can figure out exhaustion without any volume and orderflow. Everything is on the chart. By mastering your method, I will be on the next level.
Thank to you and George
Wish both of you health
  • #354
  • Apr 24, 2021 9:04pm Apr 24, 2021 9:04pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} With all due respect... As you stated in a previous post, it is important to consider context, foresight, implications, etc. The context of your use of the term debt liquidity was in the banking industry, where debt liquidity has a very specific meaning. I’m still struggling with how RickM should or would consider bank debt liquidity in his analysis of liquidity in the forex market. I attempted to provide a link from debt liquidity to forex trading at a bank, by assuming a bank had failed in managing debt liquidity and become financially...


With all of "this" ..... Experience will show specific things and show where the real life gaps are in people's true understanding.

Let me explain ....

I was (before 'semi-retiring') a career trader. What does that mean in real life? It means my career started 'out there' in the real world. I did not enter this site until towards the end of a long standing career of work. So my understanding is not tainted by the folly talk that goes on in threads and sites like this everyday. So when someone says to me they're still confused, even after a basic explanation, it means that you have not learned from Life, you have learned in a more scholastic way.

What I am about to say is for learning NOT standing over anyone because "I'm Mister Big" and generally, unless said, is not directed at anyone particular. So if people can get past the gutter trash immature thinking then they may learn something about REAL real life 'out there'. GEfx, you need to look at your own written contradictions.

For people generally, here are the real life truthful facts of certain aspects of things ---

- Statistics are counter-responsible as the only stats in 'versionary form' that are meaningful are the complete set. So all this talk about business and stats is folly if YOU do not understand the source and their merits and motivations. The context is MORE important than the numbers. Why? Context sets the stage FOR the numbers.

- The Futures Data is FUTURES DATA. NOT Spot FX data. Although a sister group it is NOT THE SAME. Similar in many ways because the context of both markets share a common denominator but for here I suggest people go LEARN about the Futures markets and their history instead of just assuming you know ANYTHING that matters. I, Peter, KNOW this is true, correct and accurate because A) I've traded Futures many times. B) I have friends who still do. C) I read and pay attention to more than just silly forums and their high ranking 'buddies'. RickM himself has openly shown and discussed the experience of Futures data not matching what the Spot market has "done on the chart". I'm not making this up, it's too priceless and hilariously ironic to lie about. Additionally, Futures data is a sample of the market. What people believe about it, I think is the BIGGEST misnomer around.... that it shows exactly what everyone is "doing". What rubbish. Each Futures Code of market has several sub-categories within it that house different "intentions". Eg - The COT Report. Most people cannot trade it properly because they are waiting to find the 'right numbers' for something. So what you are seeing in the data is an 'exhale' of different and specific participants.

- What I said about Debt Liquidity IS accurate and true. The banking industry is exactly the same as the Law industry when it comes to language. Don't believe me? Go find a CDS trader or a 'Trunch Specialist' and tell them that you're right and they're wrong in how they view and word things. GEfx (and others probably) - you're acting and thinking like someone who has been fed information and now when something turns up that contradicts/doesn't mesh with what you think you know, "it does not compute". I'm telling you point blank - what I was talking about matters.

People tend to prefer to 'stay in their little corner of things' and this is a good way to devolve, both as a trader and a person. People who only look at how to grow their own backyard are just after table scraps in my view. And only care about what works "now". Why trade at all with such useless thinking? People need to appreciate that you're dealing with an organism NOT an island. Of course I'm only talking to the serious traders, the others are looking for fun or a game to play etc. So their motivators will be different.

So really, everything I'm saying is really for the other people around, because I'm not trying to "convince" RickM or others of something. And I cannot cure nearsightedness.

Re: Global not local and trickle down system. I'm not referring to trickle down economics. That's rubbish. It's a "nice idea" to say to people who have little or nothing and wonder why in this day and age it's happening at all.

Most people try to learn this stuff by molding themself to be a trader. It's an impossibility. So too with Liquidity. Both are just an idea. So GEfx, to understand the markets properly and what I am talking about, you need to stop thinking like the people in them. PERIOD. Everything I'm talking about is real and rather simple stuff, from the perspective of learning not 'knowing information'. Some of the healthiest traders I've known are the ones who quietly learn and increase their concentric learning. The people who want to be robots of the markets using the right words and thinking that's going to translate into life long profits are in for a rude awakening.

Liquidity is a guide, no more or less.

To make this an easier transition for people to genuinely learn something that matters - Go watch Rogue Trader and The Big Short. Forget rubbish like "Wall Street" etc. YES I know they're movies but they're more easily accessible and some of the content and the contexts are reflective of real life.

Data, ALL data that comes into the public space, is incorporated information. So you the trader have no control over ANY of it. PERIOD. What does this mean? If it's tainted you wouldn't know. If it omits something, either you won't notice or you will but cannot do anything about it. So what do you have control of? Your mind and other faculties. Use juxtapositions to assert your thinking and concepts to help make bridges between information and real life. And please don't tell me you're already doing this because if this was true then I wouldn't be here speaking about it.

So, GEfx, you were asking me what banking liquidity has to do with how day traders use Data to trade?

It's about value. Not profits. Value will always outlive and outperform profits. The history of the Earth is evidence of that. What I find here, is that people can say "Liquidity" and spell it, and regurgitate what others have told them, but in real life, the scabs get run over and the real traders understand the system and the areas that perpetuate it.

So I'll say again, Data usage in past to present models of trading are fundamentally flawed and will always fail. Naturally when the party is on people never believe this or even want to hear someone saying it. If I was to give myself a do-over re: trading with data = I would track and map out NOT the areas where the big players put orders but their core motivations. Stupid unevolved people will say "make money". But Liquidity and what it is and how it functions, through the eyes of the public, is evidence enough that it's very misunderstood.

I'm not sure if that explains it. Basically, data is fluid and can change. But intentions are more concrete and MUST be backed up if you're planning to place big orders OR, to take action that relates to real life.

So to you GEfx, go ask some of your trader friends, if any traded "the '87"? This is a term used by traders at times to describe the 1987 crash and the pre and post of it. If any of them did trade during that time, then ask them to tell you their story. If none of them did, then I would get new trader friends. Maybe some that traded '04-'11. But don't be picky here. Talk to people that did well AND the ones who lost a lot or everything. It's a lesson in "Information vs Perception".

"Opinions will get your foot out the door but Real Life is where the action is."

I hope that helps.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #355
  • Apr 24, 2021 9:34pm Apr 24, 2021 9:34pm
To broadly understand Liquidity, try to trade using ONLY these views .......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NORMAL AND INVERSE PROBABILITIES.png Size: 6 KB


And ....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2nd eg of Consistency.png Size: 25 KB


*** This is not about 'my way is best'. It's a way to find out how full of crap you are in your attitudes towards what you think you know and what you believe.

Real Life Traders need to exit at some time in the future. Notice the word future. Accessibility to value and profits is determined by the future not the past or present. You do not in fact "realize" your profits until you exit. Yes entry matters too but in a different context.

Spend a month or two with this and see what you learn without being impeded by your fake security blanket via information.

Once you get to a point where you are assuming you have learned the game, of trading, you're done. Your assumption now outweighs your knowledge and ability to learn and observe. Thus legitimate change is improbable.

I hope this helps people understand Day trading as well as trading overall.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #356
  • Apr 24, 2021 10:17pm Apr 24, 2021 10:17pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
To broadly understand Liquidity, try to trade using ONLY these views ....... {image} And .... {image} *** This is not about 'my way is best'. It's a way to find out how full of crap you are in your attitudes towards what you think you know and what you believe. Real Life Traders need to exit at some time in the future. Notice the word future. Accessibility to value and profits is determined by the future not the past or present. You do not in fact "realize" your profits until you exit. Yes entry matters too but in a different context. Spend a month...

Hi Peter,
I take my hat off in front of you. The first picture is awesome. This is the idea of my analysis. Could this be an example of EURUSD 1H TF? The pair will go higher?
Awesome. Great.
  • #357
  • Edited 11:02pm Apr 24, 2021 10:36pm | Edited 11:02pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} So, GEfx, you were asking me what banking liquidity has to do with how day traders use Data to trade?
No, that is not what I asked, because it is not what you said. You linked a banks debt liquidity to the volume data that RickM uses to trade. Not banking liquidity. Not the data a day trader uses to trade. Not banking liquidity and not unspecified trading data, but debt liquidity and forex trading volume. The reason I ask the question is, in over 25 years of extensive banking and trading operations "real world" experience, I am not able to provide a rational link that would or could impact RickM, or any other forex trader, professional or retail. I am just trying to figure out what your thinking is when it comes to your comment.
  • #358
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:22am Apr 25, 2021 5:22am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No, that is not what I asked, because it is not what you said. You linked a banks debt liquidity to the volume data that RickM uses to trade. Not banking liquidity. Not the data a day trader uses to trade. Not banking liquidity and not unspecified trading data, but debt liquidity and forex trading volume. The reason I ask the question is, in over 25 years of extensive banking and trading operations "real world" experience, I am not able to provide a rational link that would or could impact RickM, or any other forex trader, professional or...


I am sorry but I have outlined in VERY simple terms what Debt Liquidity is all about. Perhaps your learned definition doesn't match but really, I sense you don't really know your industry if you cannot connect the dots after everything I spoke about. I am sincerely not trying to avoid the query you made, I really just don't see how you couldn't understand it UNLESS you are someone who assumes because you worked at a bank that this automatically means you "know" your work and industry.

RIckM (Sorry Rick, using you as an eg again here) is using data from the market he connects to, to co-ordinate an insight into Spot Fx market participant activity and intentions and other basic activities. I'm not going to detail more as RickM has done this. The assumption is that 'what you see is what you get' is what you're getting and so, is worth using to understand Volume.

But you cannot use a linear approach with Volume as majority of the REAL unused Volume is elsewhere. I'm not arguing against Volume use. I am saying that DEBT LIQUIDITY not simply 'bank liquidity' AKA solvency, is not seen with Futures Data as used by R and other day traders and myself included. And, to add, I'm not talking about what Bionics is referring to inline with stock market data.

This is not something made up. It is the internal and external relationships of money inside the banking and financial industry and outside of it.

So my suggestion is this .... from the pic below write down the type of bank and internal classification you held or hold, then look at ALL the other types and this gives you an indication of WHAT you do not know or understand. A rational link is unnecessary to pursue if you cannot first understand your own industry and all the products, services and attached activities.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: types-of-banks-315214-final1-5b4fa03f46e0fb0037b29fb0.png Size: 24 KB
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #359
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:44am Apr 25, 2021 5:44am
Day trading is best approached by combining - basic traditional fundamental analysis, basic technical analysis, proactive technical analysis, basic market activity (not popularized 'price action'), proper Volume-Tick activity, observable status quo of the market and the general outside world.

Day trading is not for those people who lack foresight. Or for the lazy.

People may have a problem with what I talk about but it helps me maintain a healthy margin and overview of the world and the markets.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #360
  • Apr 25, 2021 8:47am Apr 25, 2021 8:47am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} I am saying that DEBT LIQUIDITY not simply 'bank liquidity' AKA solvency, is not seen with Futures Data as used by R and other day traders and myself included.{image}
Peter, in responding to my question, you have written down lots of words, made lots of observations, and brought up lots of facts. Unfortunately, most of your response does not relate to the issue you raise and the question I asked about that issue. And we’ve now circled back to it in this sentence from your last post. I categorize your statement as a blinding flash of the obvious. My question remains: why should any trader on the earth, care about debt liquidity of banks when entering a forex trade? You said they should. Why? And from my point of view, you have not attempted to directly answer this question.

Honestly, I’m trying not be get deflected by all the unrelated stuff you have raised. And for the record, I have deep experience in all the banks that are noted in your picture, which does not mean that I think I know more than you, but you should not assume you know more than me.
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