GBPUSD

getting beaten up right now.

I don't see how your technical analysis is telling you to go long if it hits 9074, based on the range you are talking about, it seems like you would want to short a little higher than that (9084), which is what I have been doing the last few days. Don't let the fibs fool you, since we are near the 2 year high, (which the fibs can't factor in) they will make it look a lot more likely to hit 9330 or whatever than is actually realistic. Since august, i have been shorting every time the price gets up into this area, around 9070 or so, and cleaning up. The BOE interest rate announcement is completely factored into the price right now, so the hike to 5% might make a bit of a spike but no way is it going to 9330 because of that. If by some freaky, weird, completely unlikely stroke of fate they didn't raise rates then things would get crazy, probably drop a few hundred.

Hope you guys aren't long on cable bc it just dropped a ton when i was writing this

hey American what system do u use exactly? Or is it u just dont feel Bush can keep our dollar down forever lol?

My trade is totally factored in to that.

I had specified IFF 9124 is broken then 9330, and also specified IFF 9047 broken then 8953.

We have been trading in a range thus far.

Above 9074 I took a long and exit at 9090, and since GU bounced off 9098 it was obvious that it does not have the strength to go up further.

Even then a break of 9047 was necessary to convince me that we seriously intend to see GU below 9000 levels.

A break of 9047 exposed 8953 as stated much earlier.


American have no worries, if you have been seriously following this entire thread you would not have worries. We are taking levels into consideration here.

Currently GU is just bouncing off fib levels without any specific direction.
More like range based trading.

GU crossed 61.8% @ 9047 reached down and bounced off 38.2% ; so unless this is also broken ; we are stuck in a range 9010 - 9060

Day 3 Analysis: Wednesday

As expected GU trended towards 9124 for the 3rd time, but failed to reach target and bounced off 9098, suggesting weakness.

Dropped to break 61.8% and trade lower to 38.2% and bounced yet again.

Net analysis here stands that GU is finding it tougher to hold 9100, and slowly trending down, but is still in a consolidation mode suggesting that markets are waiting for some sort of price action on Thursday.

The current range trade stands between 9010 and 9060, if broken then 9074.

A break in either direction decides the next course of action.

The weekly charts also project weakness in GU, so thursday's trade will be a decisive in setting the level to short from, we could still get a higher short.

Jungle agreed, clocking the support TL price just bounced off from.. a break of that later would open a possible down side move. Right now im sitting in cash waiting for a break probably after the interest rate gbp decision.

Me too, darn GU is stuck in a range since Monday, can't break either side.

Any longer term prediction here would not be correct, unless this range is broken. We have strong buyers who try to test 9124 again and again, and we have sellers who try to test 9047 again and again.

A break above cannot be ruled out entirely given the strong buying going on.

Suggesting a break lower based on past price action would be inappropriate here.

At this point the next leg up or down on the pound could be either way... price has held support above 9000 RN, resistance is coming in at the 9134 figure.. lets see how this plays out.. at the moment im sidelined and will wait for confirmation for either a long or short play... I will be extremely catious to the long side however due to potentially overbought conditions and short squeeeze plays at that level... therefore I will favor the short side based on my own personal analysis of price and momentum.

Jungle when i say a break lower I mean based on pure present price action taking out a key suport level at a key time with fundamentals to back it... ;-)

If the TL (rising) on the 4hr chart gives way due to some fundamental factor then we could see the lower levels tested and a swing move setup unfold... until then i will wait for confirmation.

Interesting chart here : 4 hour chart

We are headed for a constriction with a very strong move whichever side it breaks.

good analysis were gonna get a very strong move sooner or later... but im clocking that TL on the 4hr.

im glad im standing aside and exercising patience.

GU 4 hour chart changed to a sooner than expected breakout possibility.

In this scenario I would watch for a break on 9124 before deciding my next action.

In scenario 2: the red channel formation, unless broken upwards could lead GU downwards. suggesting weakening of overall strength and hence lowering of the breakout level.

The range today made fair pips on Osc plays...any indication of market close buyout?

Just wanted to add something for my personal reference here, will build an MT4 version someday



Time Series Forecast (TSF)<!-- InstanceEndEditable -->

<hr> <!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="pagecontent" -->The Time Series Forecast (TSF) indicator is based on linear regression calculations using the Least Squares method. Linear regression is a statistical tool used to predict future forex market values relative to past values. TSF attempts to 'predict' the future value of a forex market by determining the upward or downward bias of a trend and extending that calculation into the future.

For example, if prices are trending up, TSF attempts to logically determine the upward bias of the price relative to the current price and extend that calculation forward. When the forex market price is above the indicator, the trend is considered up. When the forex market price is below the indicator, the trend is considered down.

Additionally, many analysts believe when prices rise above or fall below the indicator line; prices will likely pull back to the line. The TSF indicator also monitors the current trend to determine if a change in direction occurred.

The Time Series Forecast indicator is similar to the Linear Regression indicator with the exception of two significant differences. The first difference is that TSF plots its line forward (to the right of the chart) by the number of bars specified by the BarsPlus input. The second difference is the default Length input value used for the TSF is much shorter because the plot line is extended forward.

A larger Length input would create a grossly exaggerated plot and would not be as reliable as a shorter-term length when analyzing trends and price activity.

Thus, the Time Series Forecast function displays the statistical trend of a security's price over a specified time period based on linear regression analysis. Instead of a straight linear regression trendline, the Time Series Forecast plots the last point of multiple linear regression trendlines. This is why this indicator may sometimes referred to as the "moving linear regression" indicator or the "regression oscillator."

Because a linear regression line is a straight line as close as possible to all of the given values, a Time Series Forecast does not exhibit as much delay as a Moving Average when adjusting to price changes. This is because the indicator is continuously "fitting" itself to the data rather than simply averaging them. Note that this type of prediction is purely mathematical as it is ultimately the equivalent of drawing a line through the recent points and projecting that line forward.

The Time Series Forecast at the beginning of a data series will not be defined until there are enough values to fill the given period.

Day 4:

GU price action now limited between 78.2% and 50.0% ; we got a weak bounce off 50.0% but we expect that to be broken in under an hour and trend to 38.2%.

And again bounced off 61.87% strongly back to 38.2% ; now it all needs to be seen how long can 38.2% keep holding the trend off.

For those following channel system, we have 2 perfect channels here, either it trends up which is first preference or it trends down.

To trend up it has to break 61.8% or 9047 yet again, which if it does we can expect 9060 immediately which is possible.

Considering the strong bounce off 50.0% this is possible.

On the other hand is the channel we have been following since 9060 level, for which the immediate target is 9025.

If this breaks the current trendline short tomorrow after BOE I will short the hell out of it, there has already been a Demark signal on the dailies and the political environment is starting to become USD strong...

On this thread I have been analyzing GU and scalping pips all the way, collected well over 252 pips so far this week

GU has been testing, though weaker now the 9047 level for the past 3 hours.


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