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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,401
  • Apr 15, 2021 7:44am Apr 15, 2021 7:44am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} hi buddy, there are a couple of possibility when you are counting on a weekly basis. we are on a bull trend from march 2020, so this counter trend is a correction. It can be a 4th major wave or even a A wave which is a correction after 5 waves completes. so my first chart which i am showing, i am under the notion that this is a 4th wave. In the second chart, we will take it as a completed wave 1 and the retracement is for wave 2 correction. Hope you understand the dilemma that people who use Elliott waves have to go through, so we take it...
my point is, If we assume your first chart is correct then price can’t drop further than 1.345ish to invalidate it
  • #1,402
  • Apr 15, 2021 10:04am Apr 15, 2021 10:04am
Quoting iluvyomumma
{quote} my point is, If we assume your first chart is correct then price can’t drop further than 1.345ish to invalidate it
we actually cannot assume that. price can do anything. market can react and go either down or up in a second. but with the technical analysis, there is a probability that price will respect the 4th wave and start an upward movement for wave 5. nothing carved in stone.
STING
  • #1,403
  • Apr 15, 2021 10:13am Apr 15, 2021 10:13am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} hi buddy, there are a couple of possibility when you are counting on a weekly basis. we are on a bull trend from march 2020, so this counter trend is a correction.
Couldn't agree with you more Stinger. Heck I've got 2 possibilities even on my H1 and H4. I do it to stay nimble. I use the higher TF's to make sure the possibilities
are still in line or eliminated.

I think this EUR run up is about done now though it might bump up one last time it won't be much more if you look at H4 chart. I am again waiting to short.
My H4 still shows a possible wave 5of C of the correction.

As always, trade safe and stay safe guys.

G
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,404
  • Apr 16, 2021 5:56am Apr 16, 2021 5:56am
i will wait for the cot report for the week but i am reasonably convinced that dxy is on a B wave now. So the count will be in a slightly different way. When this downward push is a B wave , then the opposite is for euro. it will be an upward push. B waves are unpredictable, so it's better not to trade during this wave unless you are scalping. but this wave can even go below the start of A wave as an expanded flat but usually as a zigzag it retraces from 38.2 to 78.6. (which i have marked as a blue rectangle in my chart). so now we are expecting more downturn in DXY and more upward push in euro. check the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu18.png Size: 39 KB
STING
  • #1,405
  • Apr 16, 2021 6:02am Apr 16, 2021 6:02am
so to get into long on euro, we need to wait for a retracement coz at the moment, eur/usd is heavily overbought at the moment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu19.png Size: 52 KB
STING
  • #1,406
  • Apr 16, 2021 9:36am Apr 16, 2021 9:36am
Here's what I was waiting for to go short again Merka.
I guess we are aligned in our thinking now Stinger.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H4 Updated April 15.png Size: 24 KB
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,407
  • Apr 18, 2021 7:00pm Apr 18, 2021 7:00pm
so far so good.
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,408
  • Apr 18, 2021 7:15pm Apr 18, 2021 7:15pm
My updated chart and where I think it might go. What do you think Stinger?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H4 April 18.png Size: 27 KB
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,409
  • Apr 19, 2021 4:16am Apr 19, 2021 4:16am
It's quite unpredictable EU in these days.
I have the feeling that the correction is over and we are seeing the uptrend resumption
  • #1,410
  • Apr 19, 2021 8:05am Apr 19, 2021 8:05am
That is why its good to not get married with any position and stay nimble.
So long as we understand the wave possibilities and where were at there will always be pips to be had.

I fell asleep after closing the short and didn't get much of the upswing but 26 pips is plenty
good enough for my account.

I am now waiting to see what develops but I am now leaning towards the other count as my preferred count.
A 5 3 5 to be fulfilled eventually on my weekly chart.

Trade safe and stay safe! This Virus is getting out of hand.

G
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,411
  • Apr 19, 2021 8:47pm Apr 19, 2021 8:47pm
Does anyone consider overall strength of currencies when using EWA?
Only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away.
  • #1,412
  • Apr 20, 2021 10:41am Apr 20, 2021 10:41am
Quoting ByeMyDeposit
Does anyone consider overall strength of currencies when using EWA?
I do !!
STING
  • #1,413
  • Apr 20, 2021 10:48am Apr 20, 2021 10:48am
although there is a possibility for eur/usd to go upto 78.6%. there appears to be a strong rejection on daily timeframe. I am hoping that B wave is over and we should be going down for a C wave in 5 waves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4.png Size: 33 KB
STING
  • #1,414
  • Apr 25, 2021 3:15am Apr 25, 2021 3:15am
sell EURUSD at 1,216?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-raw-trading-ltd.png Size: 89 KB
  • #1,415
  • Apr 25, 2021 4:40am Apr 25, 2021 4:40am
Quoting stringfx
although there is a possibility for eur/usd to go upto 78.6%. there appears to be a strong rejection on daily timeframe. I am hoping that B wave is over and we should be going down for a C wave in 5 waves. {image}
If retrace 61.8 its possible go to C. Look at small timeframe. Its impulse
  • #1,416
  • Edited 8:48am Apr 25, 2021 8:15am | Edited 8:48am
i am still with the same view as before until proven wrong. we would need one more down move in wave C to complete the correction. Cot report is against it as it had lot more long contracts and short contracts were reduced a lot as well.

In this chart we did not meet even 38.2 retracement, so a double zigzag is a good possibility.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.png Size: 62 KB
STING
  • #1,417
  • Edited 8:43am Apr 25, 2021 8:32am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting stringfx
i am still with the same view s before until proven wrong. we would need one more down move in wave C to complete the correction. Cot report is against it as it had lot more long contracts and short contracts were reduced a lot as well. In this chart we did not meet even 38.2 retracement, so a double zigzag is a good possibility. {image}
Yes me to. I have same of view. In lower time frame its impulse. In my opinion, if price cant retrace above 1.2103 maybe its make B (x impulse -y (correction) -z (impulse) ts my opinion. Im with you about (B), but if more its make Complex.

I don't think you're wrong. I'm just giving advice. I was helped some time ago by your analysis. I hope you can check it in lower timeframe. EW still synchronized about it. If using daily you need check it on H4 or H1.
  • #1,418
  • Apr 25, 2021 8:55am Apr 25, 2021 8:55am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} Yes me to. I have same of view. In lower time frame its impulse. In my opinion, if price cant retrace above 1.2103 maybe its make B (x impulse -y (correction) -z (impulse) ts my opinion. Im with you about (B), but if more its make Complex. I don't think you're wrong. I'm just giving advice. I was helped some time ago by your analysis. I hope you can check it in lower timeframe. EW still synchronized about it. If using daily you need check it on H4 or H1.
I understand but can you show me your lower timeframe chart?
STING
  • #1,419
  • Apr 25, 2021 8:59am Apr 25, 2021 8:59am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} Yes me to. I have same of view. In lower time frame its impulse. In my opinion, if price cant retrace above 1.2103 maybe its make B (x impulse -y (correction) -z (impulse) ts my opinion. Im with you about (B), but if more its make Complex. I don't think you're wrong. I'm just giving advice. I was helped some time ago by your analysis. I hope you can check it in lower timeframe. EW still synchronized about it. If using daily you need check it on H4 or H1.
Please post your chart.
If you can daily & H4 chart.
  • #1,420
  • Apr 25, 2021 9:00am Apr 25, 2021 9:00am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} I understand but can you show me your lower timeframe chart?
I have bad signal im on vacation. I will show you ASAP maybe tomorrow at Asia's session
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