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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #281
  • Apr 15, 2021 5:48am Apr 15, 2021 5:48am
Quoting triphop
{quote} Couldn't agree more but one question. Where, on God's earth, did you find 110 good traders? I've been at this over a decade now, and I've met two who were on the same page. Two. Out of way over a 1000. Real world, professional and retail.
Yes, hahahahahahahahaah
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #282
  • Apr 15, 2021 5:54am Apr 15, 2021 5:54am
I think the most difficult in day trading is to close trades that are almost making good money by the end of the day. Especially in Wednesday
And of course it is difficult to reach the percentage necessary for month earning.
  • #283
  • Apr 15, 2021 3:57pm Apr 15, 2021 3:57pm
I always want to be able to trade during a period of enlightenment and clarity.
That trade you enter as a scout that hits the profit target you desire without delay that allows you feel the markets pulse.
If we can stay in that zone for a hour or two, the power of being a day trader allows you to trade without boundary’s and without without fear.

For me during that period of understanding, I may take anywhere up to 80 trades in a couple of hours because day trading allows me to

“Own the market for a brief period in time”

Unfortunately that clarity can’t last for long so may hay while the sun shines. That’s the power of being a day trader.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #284
  • Apr 15, 2021 4:07pm Apr 15, 2021 4:07pm
Quoting triphop
{quote} Where, on God's earth, did you find 110 good traders?
I belong to a trading group with over 100 professional traders, and I have a personal relationship with nearly all of them. In addition, I owned a consulting firm in Chicago. We had relationships with the CBOT, several large US banks, the Chicago Fed, and a few small bond firms. I developed a professional relationship with many traders during years of consulting projects. Finally, in the Chicago suburb where I lived, I knew about a dozen bond trader from kids soccer, baseball, etc. The actual number of professional and personal relationships exceed 110. In a city like Chicago, there are thousands of people making a living as traders.
  • #285
  • Apr 16, 2021 2:58am Apr 16, 2021 2:58am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I belong to a trading group with over 100 professional traders, and I have a personal relationship with nearly all of them. In addition, I owned a consulting firm in Chicago. We had relationships with the CBOT, several large US banks, the Chicago Fed, and a few small bond firms. I developed a professional relationship with many traders during years of consulting projects. Finally, in the Chicago suburb where I lived, I knew about a dozen bond trader from kids soccer, baseball, etc. The actual number of professional and personal relationships...
Nice, you've got some interesting experience there for sure GE. Have you met any who make money from alpha purely in FX? I know Chicago is the beating heart of self-started traders but over here in London I also expected to find a hell of a lot more.
What I've found are tons of traders working professionally doing a good job for sure; however within FX, those that can (or now allowed to) make alpha are actually few and far between. Specifically, I've met a few brokers who've gone solo to trade their own accounts only to find their only edge was in the order book that they no longer had. The fundamental play of a hedge fund which went to the wall shorting the euro in the greek crisis. Not to mention the quant desk of a fund that shut down their FX operation after 3 ramshackle years. The closest I found in the professional world was a bunch of STIR traders who left work to set up their own boutique fund. Almost all of the professionals I've met in FX (so excluding stock market hedge funds, investment funds etc) are actually secondary players, in the sense that they're making off the spread, or skimming off the order flow of incoming trades.
I only ever met two who were genuinely rinsing it in FX, and both came from outside the traditional finance world. What's it like in Chicago?
  • #286
  • Apr 16, 2021 4:20am Apr 16, 2021 4:20am
Maybe some of us looking to see successful day traders are looking in the wrong places or maybe what your seeing is what you want to see unconsciously. Day trading is hard i get that and i keep saying this every time.
Day trading is hard so is other areas of life, how many football players do we have playing in the top ladder? playing in top teams? called professional players? earning so much that they can exhaust in their life time. Look around we have so many successful 1% in different fields while the rest are scrambling for crumps so Fx trading can't be any different.
My Point is that, IF IS 1% or WHAT EVER THE PERCENTAGE MAKING MONEY or SUCCESFULL, YOU CAN BE THAT ALSO, ANYBODY WHO LEARNS WHAT NEEDS TO LEARN, STUDY WHAT NEEDS TO BE STUDIED, DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE TO BE SUCCESSFUL WILL BE. MOTHER NATURE WON'T DEPRIVE YOU OF YOUR SUCCESS WHEN YOU DO WHAT'S REQUIRED.
YOU AND I CAN BE IN THAT GROUP OF THE SUCCESSFUL % IF WE DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE AS TRADERS IT MIGHT TAKE US LONGER THAT EXPECTED THATS SHOULD BE OKAY IF WE REALLY WANT WHAT THE 99% OR WHAT EVER % DOES NOT HAVE.


IT WAS HARD FOR HIM ALSO PROBALY THATS WHY HE MADE THIS QUOTE
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THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #287
  • Apr 16, 2021 4:28am Apr 16, 2021 4:28am
I forgot to mention the top 1% of the successful football players most of them have been playing for 10 or more years before getting to that point, probably since from teenage age. well i don't know much about football so let me keep quiet. Cheers
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #288
  • Edited 5:53am Apr 16, 2021 5:31am | Edited 5:53am
Analogy between soccer and fx trading is, anyone can buy a ball. Not need lot of money to start it, and fields or parks or parking lots are everywhere. some are grass some are tarmac for potato fields.

I think positive feedback loop is important when begin. Fx is moving sometimes too slow. Its better start index futures but need little bit more than a ball. can get positive feedback faster, doing scalping, rather than eating finger nails for hours or days.

Our minds are operating different ways, i remember negative things in my life more than positive, i have to dig them, and then i found i have them more than i thought.

About psychology and shrinks, some of eastern monks laugh kindly for famous people who come visit them after spending ten thousends for shrinks, and asking help for free. It tells something about western understanding of mind.

Psychology of fear, trader is tradig money what can't lose. Its simple way to fix, without reading or asking help from shrinks or psy books. Other kind of fears could have deeper roots, but they are not trading related.

Over confiedence is one of my enemy,trading months after months without losing day, things are becoming too automatic.

How many of you dont even regonize which button you press when you trade ? Sell or Buy. I dont. I just execute without hesitation without knowing the button. Somehow its good because my mind is tottaly one part of my trading machine, and not do nothing else. There are side effects, sure. This time of year is good do planting garderning, watching birds arriving,step out, while fx is slow. Cleaning, purge, keeping good vibes and balance of feelings and account, Awaken fx state of mind.
  • #289
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:36am Apr 16, 2021 8:36am
Quoting triphop
{quote} Nice, you've got some interesting experience there for sure GE. Have you met any who make money from alpha purely in FX? I know Chicago is the beating heart of self-started traders but over here in London I also expected to find a hell of a lot more. What I've found are tons of traders working professionally doing a good job for sure; however within FX, those that can (or now allowed to) make alpha are actually few and far between. Specifically, I've met a few brokers who've gone solo to trade their own accounts only to find their only edge...
Actually a few traders in the group are from London. Really smart guys. As for Chicago, I sold my shares in the business to my partners a few years ago and moved to Scottsdale, AZ., where I spend most of the year now. But Chicago is a trading city. I know lots of bond traders who gave fx a shot but didn't like trading currencies as much as bonds and commodities. However, most of my fx trading friends are from banks or hedge funds, a few were programmers, all have advanced degrees but one guy skipped college and started his life as a farmer in the Iowa (owns 25,000 acres of Midwest farmland) and is the best trader I've ever seen. We all trade our personal accounts but share information and ideas. The "leader" of the group sends trade ideas several times a day. Everyone has a role to play in the group, offering research and ideas. I think part of the effort to reach Alpha in fx trading is to better understand the market we are trading and how the bankers work their day, their processes, their limits and guidelines, etc. Their work forms the rhythm in the market, which is what TA is intended to show. But my focus has always been FA and market structure, which might be difficult for most people to wrap their heads around. For me, Alpha is found there. But your question was about Chicago, which is a great trading city. It is a big bond city, of course, and I learned a long time ago the bond traders rule the earth (at least that's what they told me). FX trading doesn't fit their profile, so they tend to shy away from it. If you can make a living with bonds, why bother?
  • #290
  • Apr 16, 2021 10:50am Apr 16, 2021 10:50am
In my humble opinion the only way I have found good consistent results is looking at opposite pairs and comparing to the eur/usd.
gbp/usd has an opposite correlation to eur/gbp and they have a relationship with eur/usd. This has the most impact in the European session before New York opens between 13.00pm and 14.00pm GMT. I have paid for data feeds but they haven't improved my trading, if you want to make some money - this may help.
14 sma pretty good
  • #291
  • Apr 16, 2021 4:14pm Apr 16, 2021 4:14pm
Quoting Londonpip60
In my humble opinion the only way I have found good consistent results is looking at opposite pairs and comparing to the eur/usd. gbp/usd has an opposite correlation to eur/gbp and they have a relationship with eur/usd. This has the most impact in the European session before New York opens between 13.00pm and 14.00pm GMT. I have paid for data feeds but they haven't improved my trading, if you want to make some money - this may help. 14 sma pretty good
Hi Londonpip

I would say the main advantage of getting a data feed for me is it allows me to see the break down of liquidity within a reversal candle, that's the ratio between Bids & Asks of course.
A bearish engulfing candle means little to me unless I know how it was formed.

1.. Asks that were dominant near the wick flipping over to Bids that are now dominant within the body of the candle.
2.. Ask imbalance that's removing all current sellers
3.. Ask absorption caused by a bankers order blocking upward movement.

I believe that

1- is just a guess
2- is a great high probability trade setup.
3- another great high probability trade setup.
2 & 3- an extremely good high probability trade setup for me which is the reason why I pay the big bucks for the data feed.

Market data allows me actually feel the market move with or without purpose.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #292
  • Apr 16, 2021 7:47pm Apr 16, 2021 7:47pm
Attached Image
  • #293
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:07pm Apr 16, 2021 8:07pm
To understand the 'big players' you have to stop thinking like a single person and begin thinking like an organisational organism. Although their habits are to ' make money', they can still be tracked and there are many ways to do it..

As to the definition offered for enlightenment, this is a 'modern day' meaning. Although RickM used it in the way he did, it doesn't change the fact that modern meanings are not accurate. Real history is where you will find these definitions.

For most here, I'm sure not at all important or relevant but people have to learn this stuff someday I suppose.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #294
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:37pm Apr 16, 2021 8:37pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
To understand the 'big players' you have to stop thinking like a single person and begin thinking like an organisational organism. Although their habits are to ' make money', they can still be tracked and there are many ways to do it.. As to the definition offered for enlightenment, this is a 'modern day' meaning. Although RickM used it in the way he did, it doesn't change the fact that modern meanings are not accurate. Real history is where you will find these definitions. For most here, I'm sure not at all important or relevant but people have...
What do I mean by enlightenment?

In the widest river, you will find the current moves swiftly with purpose
In smallest creeks, the current is weak and uncertain of its direction.

Boulders in the wildest river offer little resistance
Boulders in small creeks change speed, direction creating massive uncertainly.

What if we could swim in the widest river without worrying about boulders but have the ability to see someone big changing the riverbanks ahead.
Know where that someone big is placing all that dirt on the river to change the course and direction of this massive water flow.

For a brief moment in time, be able to join them in the rewards offered by this change of currency direction.

That's the E
Live Market Data offers that E if we can have clarity and vision.

Enjoy if you can see it - in that brief moment of time.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #295
  • Edited 6:58am Apr 17, 2021 12:32am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Mine is less than a page. I will share it because most people are not wired to be traders. To trade, you have to be not be a human. Humans avoid risk and seek certainty. A trader must seek risk and avoid certainty. This is why traders invert the traders equation. My business plan: I trade only one pattern. If it is not there, I do not trade. I trade both long and short. Sometimes at the same time. This is not to be confused with grid trading. I use starter positions, I add as the market proves me right. LOSERS AVERAGE LOSERS. This is not...
weekly trade review is essential par of trading-
here is a example of weekly trade review.

If any one interested they can add more. I have other plan and checklist so it is good enough for me.
Hope it will help some of the traders.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #296
  • Apr 17, 2021 1:55am Apr 17, 2021 1:55am
Quoting hasib
{quote} weekly trade review is essential par of trading- here is a example of weekly trade review. If any one interested they can add more. I have other plan and checklist so it is good enough for me. Hope it will help some of the traders. {image}
This is a great questionnaire, my input would suggest that this is more of an After Action Report. It does not tell you what to do, or will be doing, in real time.

A business plan is more of an if-then series of statements after you set up some type of parameters. Your AAR tells asks as a trader if they did what they set out to do.

That's how I see it. Does that make sense?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #297
  • Apr 17, 2021 2:19am Apr 17, 2021 2:19am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} This is a great questionnaire, my input would suggest that this is more of an After Action Report. It does not tell you what to do, or will be doing, in real time. A business plan is more of an if-then series of statements after you set up some type of parameters. Your AAR tells asks as a trader if they did what they set out to do. That's how I see it. Does that make sense?
yes it is After Action Report. Review is done when trading week is end. Review helps us to develop a good thought process. It may not help trading immediately. For trade execution we need Action plan.
Your completely right about business plan, I may share business plan in upcoming days.
Business plan include Risk management plan, Action plan, Review and improvement plan etc. of course if we don't have good strategy all plan will generate negative outcome.
If our thought process is objective enough we will know where is the problem.

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #298
  • Apr 17, 2021 9:17am Apr 17, 2021 9:17am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Actually a few traders in the group are from London. Really smart guys. As for Chicago, I sold my shares in the business to my partners a few years ago and moved to Scottsdale, AZ., where I spend most of the year now. But Chicago is a trading city. I know lots of bond traders who gave fx a shot but didn't like trading currencies as much as bonds and commodities. However, most of my fx trading friends are from banks or hedge funds, a few were programmers, all have advanced degrees but one guy skipped college and started his life as a farmer...
Thanks GE, always good to hear whats going on outside your own bubble. Bond traders rule the earth eh? Knew there was someone pulling the strings
Sounds a good group - my own personal trading key was exactly that; establish how the market actually works rather than second-guess a story or motivation around it, and build a trading system around facts rather than opinions. old school!
good trading
  • #299
  • Edited 11:05pm Apr 18, 2021 10:45pm | Edited 11:05pm
Quoting RickM
{quote}
For a brief moment in time, be able to join them in the rewards offered by this change of currency direction.
That's the E Live Market Data offers that E if we can have clarity and vision.
Enjoy if you can see it - in that brief moment of time.

The more I read this post of Rick's, the more I get from it.
There is something in the very depths of it (and maybe regardless of the E data).

At some point all traders have experienced it.

Call it, for want of something better, a ...
Window Of Opportunity

The maths folk will know it
The data folk will know it
And the (magical) others just reading their charts will know it

Maybe, apart from the 10,000 threads on the Factory here all discussing (and rightly so) the benefits of ONE PARTICULAR WAY over another.
At the end of the day, if a Window is not there, just stay out, don't trade ... WAIT .. for the next one.


It begs the question I know, what is the window
But you "know" when it's there
Learn from your past windows (go back over your trades and find where they were - maybe that's the brutal part of day trading - the hard work - I understand. Easier to have an indi or ea advise you about the "next" trade ).

Exploit those windows of opportunity when you find them. Find that brief moment Rick mentioned.
(NO I do not have a one ticket setup - each trade is the same, yet different - we all know this - my simple business plan is if the window is wrong then close the trade, nothing more. Edit: well of course there is more, BUT get that FIRST one right, & set in your head, the rest follows easily enough).
  • #300
  • Apr 20, 2021 4:36am Apr 20, 2021 4:36am
For example, for me as a European trader, the disadvantage of day trading is I do not get into the Asian and Pacific trading sessions. The advantage is probably more if you trade during the day, then you do not leave trades overnight and do not pay swaps. Although I can stand swaps stoically if I see a big chance of making a profit
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