Cable Supply & Demand Intraday

Starting a new journal as my trading style and pairs have changed markedly since I started. If that journal was about a beginner's journey to profitability, this is more of an intermediate's journal of refining consistency and achieving emotional mastery. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...dline-breakout

Last time I was primarily trading breakouts on EUR/USD, but looking at my stats I achieve much more profitability on GBP/USD so I will focus almost exclusively on this pair.

The tools are

-Supply & Demand (multi time frame)
-Price action (5m/15m chart)
-MACD Divergence
-Trend lines
-Pivot points
-Occasionally Fib retracements
-Correlations, (dxy, govt fixed income), Fundamental analysis

Goals over next 3 months
- Complete discipline, no impatient/discipline related drawdowns. Working on ways outside of the trading time to achieve this.
- Weekly financial goal to be achieved, no more than one negative day per two weeks
- Steadily rising equity curve
- Integration of swing trades alongside intraday scalping

I'll try to keep the charts much cleaner this time around as before they were a complete jumble. We will be looking for price action signatures within areas of supply and demand, starting with a multi time frame analysis and executing on the 5m/1m chart. Continuing to trade breakouts as well.

I'll post entries daily along with reflections on the trading day/week. Anyone is welcome to contribute about cable

Tomorrow I watch carefully the 1h area of supply which rejected strongly today (1.3807-33). I believe this will continue to reject price (top red area on 15m chart). DXY is reacting off an area of demand (1h chart) so if this continues to hold I expect bearishness on cable tomorrow. US10y yields are currently sideways and GB10Y gilt yields are sideways but starting to move up so we will monitor this closely. Basically there's a range between 1.37-1.38 and both sides are being defended to the hilt, I believe the downside will give way eventually.

I shorted 1.3795, initial SL 10 pips, TP open, SL to BE asap. Post chart later.

This has to be a winner how bad would that look, first call in a new thread and it crashes and burns

Preparing to set stop to BE shortly

Subscribed - good luck with the thread mate.

Welcome, thanks for the sub! I've been kind of away from the screens for the last 3 weeks or so just trading intermittently (life distractions). As such i've not really been focussed and not following my rules as consistently, missing entries a lot etc. Back fully in the saddle now hopefully! With intraday your head really needs to be fully in things, no half measures.

Stop set to BE just a couple mins before the time of this post

edit- daily pivot giving a strong reaction, I feel the trade will still be ok though

edit- taken out at BE unfortunately. Went 16 in profit then a sharp rebound off the pivot whilst dxy crashed through demand area

One of my guiding philosophies. Finding the intraday direction is quite difficult but finding a good entry where price will react is easy. So if I can get this entry and stop to BE at a sensible point then I can just wait and see if my intraday bias is correct. If not, no problem, take the breakeven and re-evaluate

I would love to short up here at 1.38 again. Things are a bit ropey on the dollar with Treasuries enjoying a rally pushing yields down. I'm just not sure if dxy is going to find support here. I think yes possibly but i'm not confident in shorting GU so just leave it for now. It would be swimming against the tide a bit.

edit- ended up shorting 1.38 with stop at BE. No re-entry if stopped

R1 would have been an entry in my rules but I always pause and take stock after getting stopped to take stock of the situation and not take impulsive decisions. Seeing some pinbars on dxy along with bullish divergence made me bite the bullet along with round number/r1/rejection off of supply on GU

Looking back- yesterdays high, R1, 1h supply was a perfect confluence level to short. With hindsight.

Half removed at +35 pips

Remainder stopped out BE.

Could I have taken all profits and reversed here? Yes, but I didn't have the channel projected at the time. Along with the 0.382 and 5m demand just below it was a good spot to reverse buy given the tight range. Feeling a bit unfocussed still.

Forex.z1- just noticed you're in Glasgow! Another Scot! I'm on the other side in Edinburgh but lived in Glasgow for a few years.

Now, US retail sales coming out and expecting a big print. Will this give us our breakout down on GU I wonder. Wish I was still in short with my runner.

Now with US treasury yields finding support in demand at 159bps, it should lift DXY a bit. I'm tempted to short cable at the top of this channel on R1.

EDIT- shorted at 1.3803. SL 7 pips., TP open

Not a tonne going on today. I am running in profit with my last trade, 17 pips so far. I will let it run.

Overall comment on today. My eye was guided to the TL retest on the 1h chart, which was a kind of wedge retest. Along with the major supply area around 1.38 this seemed like an obvious area to short. I picked a good TP level for the biggest move down.

My thought was dxy would find support on 1h/daily demand area and have an overdue retrace, sending GU down. I believe on the monthly TF, GU has further retrace to achieve, perhaps down to 1.35/1.34. I think the level of 1.20 ish EU will find supply and may be the catalyst to turn around the dollar, and hence give GU a nudge down.

However, today we had a huge rally in govt fixed income for both US and UK. Things have been pretty static.

That's brilliant mate! I love coming to Edinburgh, great people and lovely restaurants.

Great-next time you're over be sure to DM me can grab a pint and catch up on markets

Closed for +69, just shy of 10xR

Will likely leave it there for the weekend but keep an eye out

Note that short was essentially a 1h wedge breakout, combined with S&D, so had a lot of confidence inputing shorts only yesterday at 3 separate points

We're back in the daily demand area, I expect this to break but not today, lets see next week

Just downloaded this audiobook. Still in lockdown here so do a lot of walking, audio books are perfect for that. This is one I'd had on my list for a while. Tbh, being thoroughly immersed in this stuff anyway, I have a pretty good idea of what he's going to say in the book.

Going to do more work on the psychological side of trading while this journal is going and also reading stuff around markets not directly related to strategy.

Do you even trade bro?

Jokes, with you man. Good luck. Will start my own over the weekend

Lol, welcome Chris

Green pips to us all

And yea, go for it. Maybe just the kind of learner I am but I get a lot out of just writing my thoughts down, writing on charts. It's a purely personal exercise. If people want to chime in then great I love hearing others opinions and analysis

It helps me structure a trading plan, identify edges, stop repeating dumb mistakes, maintain discipline etc

Just a note on ADR reversals. A very common pattern is for GU to hit ADR, or a level around it, then do a substantial retrace or reversal. It's not in my trading plan but is very tradable, i've taken it a number of times. So this weekend I'll figure out some rules for taking it and codify it in my plan.

The ADR was higher up and price actually touched it exactly this morning (does ADR include the current days range? I guess so). Just above S3. I didn't take this trade but maybe a TL break is good confirmation/entry signal. There was also clear divergence on 15m, and we touched into daily demand. This would have been a really good trade in hindsight. Was it a stop hunt?

Generally not a fan of catching a falling knife like that, I need some kind of confirmation even if its just candlesticks

Expecting some bullish movement on dxy either at this level or the one below. The one at 91.30-40 is a strong level. So bear movement initially on cable then monitor from there. We're in daily supply in cable. It may be a W pattern with a retrace leg initially. If the W plays out like that then we breakout the channel and go quite a bit higher. Gilts are pointing towards bearishness on cable whilst US treasuries are reacting off of daily demand so also favouring bears as things stand. Certainly that Friday daily candle is doing its best to convince us of a bullish picture on cable. It was a weird Friday style movement that just went straight up and plowed through hourly supply.