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Can anyone figure this strategy out?

  • #21
  • Apr 12, 2021 2:36am Apr 12, 2021 2:36am
Quoting Mr4x86
{quote} Definitely on the right course as well I think. Checking the entries on the 23rd March all his entries (buy, sell, buy, sell) except for the first buy entry, are all placed at overbought / oversold conditions on the 5 minute chart when looking at the 5-period RSI indicator and also the 5-5-3 Stoch indicator. Could be holy grail? I mean it needs human intervention obviously but I've not seen anything else produce such consistent results over 3 years on a legit broker yet...
Think it can be fully automated. Except 1 deal with 0.2 lots i dont understand.

Yes nice results. I wont put all money on it but 10% of working capital why not...
  • #22
  • Apr 12, 2021 2:46am Apr 12, 2021 2:46am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Think it can be fully automated. Except 1 deal with 0.2 lots i dont understand. Yes nice results. I wont put all money on it but 10% of working capital why not...
He adjust lot sizes down during periods of expected volatility like major news / elections / etc and sometimes does not trade during these events at all.

I guess with automation you just need to tell the algo when to stop placing trades, he obviously does only 1-4 trades before calling it quits for the night...
  • #23
  • Apr 12, 2021 2:48am Apr 12, 2021 2:48am
Anyway averaging better use on assets with strong bias... for example Microsoft, Salesforce and similar companies stocks where income based on subscription fees - BUY only could work consistently in long term. At least this is what my EAs backtesting indicates.
  • #24
  • Apr 12, 2021 6:31am Apr 12, 2021 6:31am
Quoting joyny
Anyway averaging better use on assets with strong bias... for example Microsoft, Salesforce and similar companies stocks where income based on subscription fees - BUY only could work consistently in long term. At least this is what my EAs backtesting indicates.
Absolutely, you could probably even do this on the S&P500 or dow jones index too, without leverage, and be a winner...

... but that is a topic for a different thread

I'm going to experiment with a sell order every day at 22:00 broker time, and a slight grid at 45 pips with 1.5x multiplication, with no more orders placed when the entire grid closes average 9 pips in profit.

When I can be bothered I will write a cbot to chase a maximum of 4 trades between 10pm and 2am according to overbought / oversold conditions (this one will take a bit more effort) and see what ends up being the better option...
  • #25
  • Apr 13, 2021 5:51am Apr 13, 2021 5:51am
Interesting time to observe now. Trades are delayed but at present it looks like 2 trades open as he tries to grid out of a bad sell trade. I can't figure out why that sell trade was placed after already closing a sell trade in profit. Currently opened bad sell trade at 23:16 definitely was hovering around oversold territory when placed.. now a second trade to try grid it out. Looks bad at the moment but he always seems to recover this way. Could be worth a sneaky short GBPCAD right now since hes going to keep adding shorts until the trade is at breakeven
  • #26
  • Apr 13, 2021 6:25am Apr 13, 2021 6:25am
Quoting Mr4x86
Interesting time to observe now. Trades are delayed but at present it looks like 2 trades open as he tries to grid out of a bad sell trade. I can't figure out why that sell trade was placed after already closing a sell trade in profit. Currently opened bad sell trade at 23:16 definitely was hovering around oversold territory when placed.. now a second trade to try grid it out. Looks bad at the moment but he always seems to recover this way. Could be worth a sneaky short GBPCAD right now since hes going to keep adding shorts until the trade is at...
That EA seems opened SELL on RSI(3 or 4 period) +/- 70 then closed with TP when RSI below +/- 30. It could open BUY from RSI +/- 20 but RSI didnt touched so low - RSI moved again UP and crossed 70 in 10 minutes (on M5 timeframe). So it took another SELL.

Maybe M1 used or M5 - don't know period. But opening/closing deals is based on RSI or Stochastic with a small period.

Maybe open SELL on RSI 80 and TP on RSI 30. Open BUY on RSI 20 and TP on RSI 70. So not immediate opposite order but wait for some interval.
  • #27
  • Apr 13, 2021 8:59am Apr 13, 2021 8:59am
not sure why h still (according to myfxbook), still has the two trades open when at 1608hr, the earlier one went to breakeven and the second he uses for mitigating loss, went to 45p profit. So unless he is not updating myfxbook consistently when in a loss trade, i do not understand. I agree the second entry made no sense when he already had one earlier that gave quick profit and most days it appears he only takes one trade at 22:00hr or near to that time. I do not use ANY indis, and refuse to even look at them but I do see patterns in how the trades are made but the second trade today made no sense. the third was just to mitigate at his usual 45 pip distance when in loss.
  • #28
  • Apr 13, 2021 6:18pm Apr 13, 2021 6:18pm
Quoting modsky
not sure why h still (according to myfxbook), still has the two trades open when at 1608hr, the earlier one went to breakeven and the second he uses for mitigating loss, went to 45p profit. So unless he is not updating myfxbook consistently when in a loss trade, i do not understand. I agree the second entry made no sense when he already had one earlier that gave quick profit and most days it appears he only takes one trade at 22:00hr or near to that time. I do not use ANY indis, and refuse to even look at them but I do see patterns in how the trades...
He has a delay function on myfxbook so you dont see them when they open or close right away - this is to prevent copying his account. As you can see the grid has now closed in profit and he went ahead with a buy, sell, buy, sell sequence that was also successful since that grid. One is showing as still open but it would have shut by now, thats just the myfxbook delay feature kicking in.

Last nights initial buy trade doesnt make any sense, but the rest are very clearly showing almost to the minute on my 5 min chart as being placed exactly in the overbought / oversold conditions using a 5-3-3 stoch indicator...
  • #29
  • Apr 13, 2021 9:10pm Apr 13, 2021 9:10pm
Quoting Mr4x86
{quote} He has a delay function on myfxbook so you dont see them when they open or close right away - this is to prevent copying his account. As you can see the grid has now closed in profit and he went ahead with a buy, sell, buy, sell sequence that was also successful since that grid. One is showing as still open but it would have shut by now, thats just the myfxbook delay feature kicking in. Last nights initial buy trade doesnt make any sense, but the rest are very clearly showing almost to the minute on my 5 min chart as being placed exactly...
thanks for explaining the delay mode. I figured that must be what was happening, but never having used myfxbook, I was not sure. As you say the four trades today so far make sense to me, even though i never use stoch or any other indicators, but by price action for scalping they all made sense. Last nite the buy taken at the price he did, had a max expectation of around 7 pip (IMHO) but i think his target is maybe 10. The M5 closing candle took him into negative territory and trading at close time is weird with large spreads most days. I would have considered a buy at perhaps 0100 hr but i have to observe this pairs' spreads at first hours of a day to determine if i would take it then by PA. certainly later hours gave several indications to buy at 1.72692 or 1.72778 but hindsight makes that easy to see and it is not part of this system in my opinion. I took the two easy sell trades at 1535 and 1730 candle areas. Still trying however to determine more of this technique. Thanks again for your insight!
  • #30
  • Apr 13, 2021 10:53pm Apr 13, 2021 10:53pm
my observations.
1. support/resistance is the first and foremost consideration for his level zone of interest to enter trades around his timing, more than oscillator.
2. second is trend line for precision entry (may be overwrite)
3. stochastic as cycle oscillator for some comfort confirmation (may be overwrite).

i reckon that no grid is used.

S1 was taken below SR and TL, stoch turned down at 50.
S2 was taken due to filling of gap which turned out to be a wrong decision.
S3 was for damage control for S2 to cover loss for a nicer equity curve.
it was taken below SR and TL, also below a major d1 resistance
B1 was taken above SR and TL, stoch oversold.
S4 was taken below SR, stoch overbought.
B2 was taken above SR, stoch oversold.
- B1, S4, B2 were taken under a ranging condition.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #31
  • Apr 14, 2021 1:52am Apr 14, 2021 1:52am
Quoting Inthebox
my observations. 1. support/resistance is the first and foremost consideration for his level zone of interest to enter trades around his timing, more than oscillator. 2. second is trend line for precision entry (may be overwrite) 3. stochastic as cycle oscillator for some comfort confirmation (may be overwrite). i reckon that no grid is used. S1 was taken below SR and TL, stoch turned down at 50. S2 was taken due to filling of gap which turned out to be a wrong decision. S3 was for damage control for S2 to cover loss for a nicer equity curve. it...
Probably the most in-depth analysis to date. Thank you bro - definitely something to stew over... I want to have a go at taking these trades myself based off the stoch but in my local timezone it is between the hours of midnight and 6am so quite hard to do

Anybody else considering taking some of these trades? Or even writing a bit of an EA to mimic this action?
  • #32
  • Apr 14, 2021 2:49am Apr 14, 2021 2:49am
Quoting modsky
{quote} thanks for explaining the delay mode. I figured that must be what was happening, but never having used myfxbook, I was not sure. As you say the four trades today so far make sense to me, even though i never use stoch or any other indicators, but by price action for scalping they all made sense. Last nite the buy taken at the price he did, had a max expectation of around 7 pip (IMHO) but i think his target is maybe 10. The M5 closing candle took him into negative territory and trading at close time is weird with large spreads most days. I...
Yep, he never enters his first trade before 22:00.. so whatever the algo / research he came up with obviously told him that the highest success rate is after that specific time based on trial and error. You are right spreads are normally higher then but I have noticed brokers like ICM (which he makes you sign up for using his IB code) and Pepper both have fairly reasonable spreads around that time, which I believe is also key to the success of the system.
  • #33
  • Apr 14, 2021 5:24am Apr 14, 2021 5:24am
one does not have to copy wholesale.
just know the concept and apply according to own conditions.
like stationing in australia, today there's nzd cash rate announcement helping the uptrend.

buy entries could be when price closed above two or more indications:
day open
moving average
macd above zero
support
trend line
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #34
  • Apr 14, 2021 7:48am Apr 14, 2021 7:48am
Quoting Mr4x86
{quote} Yep, he never enters his first trade before 22:00.. so whatever the algo / research he came up with obviously told him that the highest success rate is after that specific time based on trial and error. You are right spreads are normally higher then but I have noticed brokers like ICM (which he makes you sign up for using his IB code) and Pepper both have fairly reasonable spreads around that time, which I believe is also key to the success of the system.
yes i agree that ICM and Pepper both have much better spreads at those time as well. And with scalping at that time of day it is very important to not have spreads that become excessive. When his trades go against him he has a most consistent second entry 45 pips from the first to make his second entry. and third one is 90 pips from the first. He then shoots for closing the two trades, or three trades for an approx break even point.

i think as well he is using Support and Resistance, with close of M5 candles for reference as target for available 5-10p profits, perhaps deciding on buy or sell based on nearest target from open of 200 candle.

I am still not convinced of use of any indicators in this system unless perhaps as INTHEBOX says, for comfort.

wrong time of day for me to supervise trades so i can only do in hindsights.
  • #35
  • Apr 14, 2021 8:05am Apr 14, 2021 8:05am
Quoting modsky
{quote} I am still not convinced of use of any indicators in this system unless perhaps as INTHEBOX says, for comfort.
you can go to his website mentioned in his FF thread.
click blog to find out more.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #36
  • Apr 14, 2021 8:38am Apr 14, 2021 8:38am
Quoting modsky
{quote} i go there but i see no option called blog to click.. {image}
go to his website first.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post12851915
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #37
  • Apr 14, 2021 8:50am Apr 14, 2021 8:50am
Quoting Inthebox
today there's nzd cash rate announcement helping the uptrend. buy entries could be when price closed above two or more indications: day open moving average macd above zero support trend line {image}
price turned down due to d1 resistance now turned support.
there's another resistance at round number.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #38
  • Apr 14, 2021 8:51am Apr 14, 2021 8:51am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} go to his website first. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post12851915
yes, i read your note again, and realized it said to go to his WEBSITE...I follow that instruction and found the information. thanks for patience with me
  • #39
  • Apr 15, 2021 1:39am Apr 15, 2021 1:39am
buy scalp achieved with confluences.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #40
  • Apr 15, 2021 2:32am Apr 15, 2021 2:32am
buy scalp continuation.
we are now in london session.
in order for the up trend to continue, asia high has to be broken convincingly.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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