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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #241
  • Apr 11, 2021 7:48am Apr 11, 2021 7:48am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Some rules never change. If Buyers are absorbed by a large passive selling order and price refuses to go higher - better start looking to sell. Like gravity, its just the laws of supply and demand.
True, but if price hit a supply zone, that bull bar would have a big wick. That big wick is a pullback on a lower timeframe. That would be his excuse to sell a bull bar. That bull bar he sold closed on it's high. That makes no sense.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #242
  • Apr 11, 2021 10:24am Apr 11, 2021 10:24am
The brutal truth of day trading

a basic and crucial stuff, that the majority of the traders dont do
bull market, buy at support
bear market, sell at resistance

cheers
Uncertainty of the market must be embraced and accepted.
  • #243
  • Apr 11, 2021 11:29am Apr 11, 2021 11:29am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Some rules never change. If Buyers are absorbed by a large passive selling order and price refuses to go higher - better start looking to sell. Like gravity, its just the laws of supply and demand.
Hello Rick,
I'm going over GeorgeAUS's thread from 2 years ago and I can tell that his methods used to work. I saw countless examples and the confirmation of some expert traders like yourself, Blue, Moody etc. I read 200+ pages, spent 10+ hours every day and took notes of the important stuff posted there. I'm about to start back testing , however I'm wondering if the Market has changed drastically since then and if those methods still work now in 2021.
I'm sorry to bother you, but I'm new to this forum and new to Forex in general, so I just want to have the right mindset and right methods to learn from, so I don't lose time on wrong information like many traders starting in this game.
Also, what happened to George, I see he hasn't posted anything since September last year?
If Blue or Moody or any of the people who were mostly involved in that thread see this, I'd appreciate their thoughts as well.
Thank you
  • #244
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:26pm Apr 11, 2021 6:26pm
Quoting Rminos190
{quote} Hello Rick, I'm going over GeorgeAUS's thread from 2 years ago and I can tell that his methods used to work. I saw countless examples and the confirmation of some expert traders like yourself, Blue, Moody etc. I read 200+ pages, spent 10+ hours every day and took notes of the important stuff posted there. I'm about to start back testing , however I'm wondering if the Market has changed drastically since then and if those methods still work now in 2021. I'm sorry to bother you, but I'm new to this forum and new to Forex in general, so I just want to have the right mindset and right methods to learn from, so I don't lose time on wrong information like many traders starting in this game. Also, what happened to George, I see he hasn't posted anything since September last year? If Blue or Moody or any of the people who were mostly involved in that thread see this, I'd appreciate their thoughts as well. Thank you


Hi Rminos,

Pls allow me to sneak in an opinion if I may.

It has to be a long one (again) and for that I apologise.


When anybody reads a thread on the Factory, that implies information on how the fx markets work (some will even say operate) then it is from that readers viewpoint only as to its usefulness.


If someone is looking for a “SYSTEM” to trade then their search might be long & arduous here (for reasons that have been mentioned on many other threads).


If someone is looking for a viewpoint to merely commence or form a trading base from then, imo (only), George’s first thread had the best clue for myself.

I always condense everything I read to a pinpoint (like the original big bang, I guess) and then let it expand out exponentially from there.

So with George’s thread I came away with “Targets, targets, targets”. (I did not come away with an indicator or filters as I have my own).



I have proven, mostly to myself, and not anyone else tho, that ALL indis will work successfully 50% of the time (because it is as simple as - price will either go up or down, ultimately).

Spending periods of time testing any indicator (I use ma’s) will allow you to see WHEN they are more LIKELY to provide a worthwhile signal for trading.

And that is often NOT at the immediate time the signal is generated (difficult maybe for newer traders to comprehend I understand. Why that is belongs to another discussion entirely).

Traders will be basing signals off indis (for ‘ultimate’ directional moves) hoping that the move will take place ‘NOW’.

And THAT, as I see it, is the ‘rub’ of indicator trading. (Another brutal truth aspect).


Imv any thread a trader reads on the Factory should immediately be condensed down to its most basic pinpoint or beginning.

[As an example I see that the Delta Phenomenom Book is again being discussed on other threads, a 200 page book going into what every trader hopes for - a solution to PREDICTING THE FUTURE.

For myself, in the end I condensed the book down to a two paragraph pinpoint, which was NOT a prediction tool at all lol yet showed me two ways a market would behave. And those two ways do NOT happen at every point on every chart, so again a big rub for anyone wanting a “one size fits all” solution to successful trading in FX.]


Then, other threads on the Forum will discuss the more important things about a trading life, which is actually THEIR own life. And how they conduct their life, and then transfer that life conduct to FX trading.


So, sorry Rminos, someone else might be able to more succinctly (than me) answer your requirement of whether George’s first thread provides useable info, or whether any info has decayed over time.

I still use targets at some point or consideration in each trade I take.
  • #245
  • Apr 11, 2021 10:29pm Apr 11, 2021 10:29pm
To be candid here, most people are pretty screwed up, mentally and emotionally BEFORE they begin their trading "journey". This in turn affects and INFECTS their process of researching and learning. And unfortunately, if we're being brutally honest here, is at least PART of the reason why it takes people so long to learn what they need to. And the kicker is - certain parts of this industry are EXTREMELY easy and simple to comprehend and understand while other areas require ..... a mind that works properly as it is going to be the one that processes the information and determines real from fake, doable from ridiculous.

Step One is and has always been, your heart and mind. Not to be confused with mindset. If you are a person you have a past and this past automatically affects how you think and feel at all times. George's threads, like any other, are only useful to someone who can think and venture into the wilderness to do their own thorough research, just as TimeTells and others have said.

For anyone new to trading, your thinking and truthfulness is what will get you through the easy times AND especially the hard times. And you must understand that 'the money' is just a by-product of doing everything else properly. No shortcuts. You need to learn NOT to put the influences and/or desires of the outside world ahead of proper learning.

The markets are always changing and this is why your mind is most important .... to observe and determine WHAT has changed without always knowing at that point, the WHY. The why can sometimes come later.

NB - It's NOT about having all the secrets, but it IS about going FAR ENOUGH to see what is over the hill, when others are too lazy or cowardice to keep going.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #246
  • Apr 12, 2021 1:09am Apr 12, 2021 1:09am
Quoting PeterCaleb
To be candid here, most people are pretty screwed up, mentally and emotionally BEFORE they begin their trading "journey". This in turn affects and INFECTS their process of researching and learning. And unfortunately, if we're being brutally honest here, is at least PART of the reason why it takes people so long to learn what they need to. And the kicker is - certain parts of this industry are EXTREMELY easy and simple to comprehend and understand while other areas require ..... a mind that works properly as it is going to be the one that processes...
Yes, you have really made a point and this is one of the best and Educational reply in this Thread. Kudoos
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #247
  • Apr 12, 2021 9:32am Apr 12, 2021 9:32am
Quoting Rminos190
{quote} Hello Rick, I'm going over GeorgeAUS's thread from 2 years ago and I can tell that his methods used to work. I saw countless examples and the confirmation of some expert traders like yourself, Blue, Moody etc. I read 200+ pages, spent 10+ hours every day and took notes of the important stuff posted there. I'm about to start back testing , however I'm wondering if the Market has changed drastically since then and if those methods still work now in 2021. I'm sorry to bother you, but I'm new to this forum and new to Forex in general, so I just...
Hi Rminos190

You are not wasting your time, I suggest you back test George's strategy and find your own settings that make sense for you - the changing markets have no effect on his systems profitability.
I spend about 6 months testing all his settings in early 2019 to see if I could develop a system that worked for me, that I could understood and trust. Can I suggest that if you perform this task, you may find something else eventually that you won't expect.

A contradiction

Let me know if you find it but I believe you will know what to do without asking me, it will be worth your while.

George is fine and healthy, he's gone fishing.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #248
  • Edited 10:57am Apr 12, 2021 10:47am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Some rules never change. If Buyers are absorbed by a large passive selling order and price refuses to go higher - better start looking to sell. Like gravity, its just the laws of supply and demand.
In theory yes,
In practice, may be yes, may be no.
The rules do change and they change a lot. Each player makes his own rules. Because any analysis will always be subjective. (if objective then someone owns the market)
"Better looking to sell" (or buy) that is the issue, is it not ?
End result, take a risk and see how it goes.. That's the way it's played, in practice there are no rules except risk.
  • #249
  • Apr 12, 2021 11:23am Apr 12, 2021 11:23am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "The guy sold a bull bar," hindsight is always 20/20 But what he did wrong is not the issue... he thought he was following his strategy that allowed him to grow his account over several months. Dilligently applying rules that made money. This is the perfect video to illustrate "The brutal truth of day trading" 1) find a strategy that works (no small task) 2) apply the rules and dilligently grow the account 3) Sooner or later the rules stop working and lose a substancial amount. ..... 4) start over with new rules ...

what you say here about the fallibility of systems is so obvious, not hard to understand at all. it is hard to accept. even if they accept it ... there is still DISCRETION.

as someone said, nobody likes to lose... it hurts lol

we can go on forever with our "negative" comments... nobody cares, trust me. it actually generates traffic.


BTW the only system I know that survived for more than 20 years is called "momentum investing"... obviously no SL and no leverage.
  • #250
  • Apr 12, 2021 2:13pm Apr 12, 2021 2:13pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
To be candid here, most people are pretty screwed up, mentally and emotionally BEFORE they begin their trading "journey". This in turn affects and INFECTS their process of researching and learning. And unfortunately, if we're being brutally honest here, is at least PART of the reason why it takes people so long to learn what they need to. Peter
yes,
our animal instinct to fight every trade has to change . because PA follows Newtons Laws
  • #251
  • Apr 12, 2021 4:14pm Apr 12, 2021 4:14pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} In theory yes, In practice, may be yes, may be no. The rules do change and they change a lot. Each player makes his own rules. Because any analysis will always be subjective. (if objective then someone owns the market) "Better looking to sell" (or buy) that is the issue, is it not ? End result, take a risk and see how it goes.. That's the way it's played, in practice there are no rules except risk.
Its not theory Mingary, its just what happens.

If a large order block of say 5000 contracts is sitting on a bullish market, when price comes up to the block it will be absorbed and price will halt. Unless there is increasing long orders applying pressure immediately behind price, it will get expelled and therefore will reverse.
It therefore requires high density of immediate aggressive long orders to follow through within seconds or we have a natural pullback.
Its all about applied pressure, if its weak - it will be repelled.

Big players place road blocks on the market using Algo's to either prevent market from moving higher in say a bullish market. Then if they choose the market to become more bullish, contracts are immediately withdrawn so orders that were being absorbed have now create a market imbalance of long orders.

Price now moves up under the control of that major player.

Its just what happens.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #252
  • Apr 12, 2021 6:26pm Apr 12, 2021 6:26pm
Very good ! Trend following. Patience. But you always need to "understand" your mind, even with an EA. Because of "patience".
  • #253
  • Apr 12, 2021 6:51pm Apr 12, 2021 6:51pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} In theory yes, In practice, may be yes, may be no. The rules do change and they change a lot. Each player makes his own rules. Because any analysis will always be subjective. (if objective then someone owns the market) "Better looking to sell" (or buy) that is the issue, is it not ? End result, take a risk and see how it goes.. That's the way it's played, in practice there are no rules except risk.
See?

You like to troll Ming, I can respect that.

I know that you know how to trade.

[quote=HeyYou;13491699 as someone said, nobody likes to lose... it hurts lol we can go on forever with our "negative" comments... nobody cares, trust me. it actually generates traffic. BTW the only system I know that survived for more than 20 years is called "momentum investing"... obviously no SL and no leverage.[/quote]

That is why you trade so small that it does not matter to you. Let the market build your position.

You are right about momo investing. Some people call it following the trend. It has worked, long and short, since the inception of markets.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #254
  • Apr 12, 2021 8:21pm Apr 12, 2021 8:21pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} See? You like to troll Ming, I can respect that. I know that you know how to trade. {quote} That is why you trade so small that it does not matter to you. Let the market build your position. You are right about momo investing. Some people call it following the trend. It has worked, long and short, since the inception of markets.
Hi jmn5611

The funny thing is even traders like myself who are always looking to trade against a move near exhaustion, only make money when we get on “the trend” the other way.
So every profitable trader eventually is trading the trend - some of us just hate saying those words.
Admitting we will “trade the trend” hurts our ego’s.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #255
  • Apr 12, 2021 9:02pm Apr 12, 2021 9:02pm
Not ALL analysis is subjective. And objective does NOT have to mean someone owns the market.

Just think about this for a minute.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #256
  • Apr 12, 2021 9:40pm Apr 12, 2021 9:40pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Rminos190 You are not wasting your time, I suggest you back test George's strategy and find your own settings that make sense for you - the changing markets have no effect on his systems profitability. I spend about 6 months testing all his settings in early 2019 to see if I could develop a system that worked for me, that I could understood and trust. Can I suggest that if you perform this task, you may find something else eventually that you won't expect. A contradiction Let me know if you find it but I believe you will know what...

Hi RickM,
Please say thanks to George from my name for his awesome thread. I have read the thread within one week and tested it one week. Even I don't use his method. I found something very valuable theory or method (I don't know what I need to call it).
I didn't have any chance to take part in the thread. But that was worth time.
Wish you health, wealth and pips
Thank you
  • #257
  • Apr 13, 2021 2:57am Apr 13, 2021 2:57am
Listen, Market never changes. Human Nature is still the same then and now and since Mesopotamia.
The only difference now and a hundred years ago is the scalability -meaning, now more people have access to the market with relatively low initial balance-

The same goes for forum psychology that I've seen in many of the threads:
That one guy that writes a lot, that points to no-where. To put it simply, Motivational BS.

Personally, there is one book in particular that resonates: Trading In The Zone.


Quoting traderfox7
{quote} yes, our animal instinct to fight every trade has to change . because PA follows Newtons Laws
Hello traderfox7,
Wrong. PA follows Human Behavior (fear, greed, ignorance and hope) not Newton's first Law.


Quoting HeyYou
{quote} what you say here about the fallibility of systems is so obvious, not hard to understand at all. it is hard to accept. even if they accept it ... there is still DISCRETION. as someone said, nobody likes to lose... it hurts lol we can go on forever with our "negative" comments... nobody cares, trust me. it actually generates traffic. BTW the only system I know that survived for more than 20 years is called "momentum investing"... obviously no SL and no leverage.
Hi again HeyYou,
Momentum Investing IS Trend Following, and it has survived since the dawn of the Financial Market.


Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi jmn5611 The funny thing is even traders like myself who are always looking to trade against a move near exhaustion, only make money when we get on “the trend” the other way. So every profitable trader eventually is trading the trend - some of us just hate saying those words. Admitting we will “trade the trend” hurts our ego’s. Cheers
Hi RickM,,
My vanity is following the trend. If I didn't, then I'm no better than an in debt drunkard who gambles a lot. (A Sucker)
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #258
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:12am Apr 13, 2021 3:12am
Quoting remonpilip
Listen, Market never changes. Human Nature is still the same then and now and since Mesopotamia. The only difference now and a hundred years ago is the scalability -meaning, now more people have access to the market with relatively low initial balance- The same goes for forum psychology that I've seen in many of the threads: That one guy that writes a lot, that points to no-where. To put it simply, Motivational BS. Personally, there...


If you say so ..... would you like some mud with your water?


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #259
  • Apr 13, 2021 4:27am Apr 13, 2021 4:27am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} If you say so ..... would you like some mud with your water? Peter
Hi PeterCaleb,

No offence, but I seldom reply to this kind of slow-witted arguments, but I'm not doing anything right now.

Anyways,
You are perceiving it as a noun, I was implying it with an adjective.

What happens to the majority's emotion after they drink the water? It's the same with muddy water and it's the same with packaged water. The majority feels hydrated.

What happen to the majority's emotion when the Nation is entering a recession? they feel fear, they panic, they sell everything and in a fair market, the market has always, and I guarantee you, always go down because everyone is either selling everything or they lost everything and can't pay debts which in turn will inject havoc to the Nation's economy.

When the majority is fearful & panicking -the market goes down- sounds extremely common sense right?
Because it is. It has always been like that since the dawn Human civilization. Humans are, in general risk averse.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #260
  • Apr 13, 2021 7:50am Apr 13, 2021 7:50am
This thread seems to be meandering a bit. I've been thinking of a way to turn brutal truths into learning experiences. For example, everyone who trades will experience losses. That's a brutal truth. But, from this truth, flows another brutal truth: 98% of retail traders fail. So, how do successful traders avoid this second, follow-on truth? There are brutal truths behind the processes needed to short circuit the apparent link between a loss and losing. Anyone interested in going down this path for a while?
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