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Can anyone figure this strategy out?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 10, 2021 8:26pm Apr 10, 2021 8:26pm
Hi Everyone,

This is one of the more successful strategies I've seen on myfxbook, with verified trades on a non-scam broker.

It uses GBPCAD and seems to trade around 22:00 broker time during the quiet period, has very low drawdown and 5-6% profit per month.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/icm...vative/2564146

Can anyone figure out what the strategy is here? What indicators seem to be at play?
  • #2
  • Apr 10, 2021 9:01pm Apr 10, 2021 9:01pm
Quoting Mr4x86
Hi Everyone, This is one of the more successful strategies I've seen on myfxbook, with verified trades on a non-scam broker. It uses GBPCAD and seems to trade around 22:00 broker time during the quiet period, has very low drawdown and 5-6% profit per month. https://www.myfxbook.com/members/icm...vative/2564146 Can anyone figure out what the strategy is here? What indicators seem to be at play?
Thanks for posting Mr 4x86,good discovery,firstly i'm going to look at the trading history and view price action,on a naked chart,don't need indicators for now,unless that initial plan fails to find PA patterns........all night project it seems :-) I'll get back to you.
  • #3
  • Apr 10, 2021 9:23pm Apr 10, 2021 9:23pm
The strategy is a combination of 3 EAs and manual supervision. The first EA is responsible for the opening of the position according to the market direction. This EA only looks for a good entry and opens a position in the right direction. This is the backbone of the trading account as it has an 81% success rate.

If the market goes against our position the EA opens additional positions in order to get out of the trades as soon as possible. When this happens we close when the sum of the trades reaches zero loss. The initial lots are fixed but later is increased. This is a light grid-martingale strategy. Although grid trading comes with some risk by nature, it is a great tool if handled correctly. We might override the basic settings manually if the situation requires.
  • #4
  • Apr 10, 2021 9:24pm Apr 10, 2021 9:24pm
Quoting scsstnt
{quote} Thanks for posting Mr 4x86,good discovery,firstly i'm going to look at the trading history and view price action,on a naked chart,don't need indicators for now,unless that initial plan fails to find PA patterns........all night project it seems :-) I'll get back to you.
Awesome, very interested to know what you come up with. I am not advanced at reading price action by any means but I am sure that if a collective manages to put their heads together and plot it on a chart they can figure it out. I plotted all the buys and sells on a 5, 15, and 30 minute candlestick and from what I can gather there seems to be slight reversals at play most of the time. I believe it is 90% automated trading with the occasional manual intervention on the rare occasion that the trades start to go the wrong way, as can be seen when trades are closed at breakeven or additional trades are placed.
  • #5
  • Apr 10, 2021 9:26pm Apr 10, 2021 9:26pm
Quoting scsstnt
The strategy is a combination of 3 EAs and manual supervision. The first EA is responsible for the opening of the position according to the market direction. This EA only looks for a good entry and opens a position in the right direction. This is the backbone of the trading account as it has an 81% success rate. If the market goes against our position the EA opens additional positions in order to get out of the trades as soon as possible. When this happens we close when the sum of the trades reaches zero loss. The initial lots are fixed but later...
I have read that part myself, but I guess the question is can we decipher the strategy at play here and do it ourselves?
  • #6
  • Apr 10, 2021 9:38pm Apr 10, 2021 9:38pm
Ok here goes,what determines market direction? Structure right,lets not think about indicators right now,maybe later we can do this thing.The EA accounts for 81% accuracy of finding market direction.....2nd part now,time of day.This is NY close I think,when EA does its transactions,everything stalls at this time and almost flat,but something amazing happens,GBPCAD has a spike in volatility within the 1st hr of Sydney open,is it here the EA scalps that availability of pips?

I need to check closing times,however at the time EA is opening trades,look for a break of market structure during this time,something is becoming too familiar in this zone.......maybe there's an edge let's investigate further.
  • #7
  • Apr 10, 2021 9:41pm Apr 10, 2021 9:41pm
Quoting scsstnt
Ok here goes,what determines market direction? Structure right,lets not think about indicators right now,maybe later we can do this thing.The EA accounts for 81% accuracy of finding market direction.....2nd part now,time of day.This is NY close I think,when EA does its transactions,everything stalls at this time and almost flat,but something amazing happens,GBPCAD has a spike in volatility within the 1st hr of Sydney open,is it here the EA scalps that availability of pips? I need to check closing times,however at the time EA is opening trades,look...
To pump out consecutive months of profit with low drawdowns for over 3 years in the forex game is impressive. I've been searching all over the internet for any other signal that has similar success, I have not yet found it.

You are right it is during the quiet session, where movement is actually very low. Looking at most of his trades you could have almost entered the opposite trade to his strategy and possibly still closed 10 pips in profit most of the time. It seems to trade a narrow range during the next 4 hours or so after 22:00 server time
  • #8
  • Apr 10, 2021 10:01pm Apr 10, 2021 10:01pm
Subscribed..
  • #9
  • Apr 10, 2021 10:14pm Apr 10, 2021 10:14pm
Just a slight observation, looking at the range GBPCAD trades from 22:00 Broker time you could almost guarantee profit by going short right at 22:00 with TP of 10 pips and doing a slight grid adding up to 3 positions if the trade goes against you by 20 pips. Most of the time GBPCAD will make a move downwards over the next 12 hours after 22:00... Yes that is actually 5am Sydney time at the moment with no daylight savings... Anybody feel free to jump in with observations or to correct me if you believe I am wrong...
  • #10
  • Apr 11, 2021 3:59am Apr 11, 2021 3:59am
this is interesting. have you considered to subscribe and follow the trades yourself? it can be interesting while you study how it works. Seems that with a 1000 $ account it pay for itself and you also have a little gain. I mean it's not my goal in life to just follow a system that i don't know, but if it works, while not in the meantime.

thank you for sharing!!
  • #11
  • Apr 11, 2021 5:29am Apr 11, 2021 5:29am
I think you will find it here

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4-5-monthly-on
  • #12
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:36am Apr 11, 2021 6:36am
Quoting forexgrh
I think you will find it here https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4-5-monthly-on
Thats exactly the one... Still trying to figure it out but I believe there is RSI involved with overbought / oversold.

Just from looking at most days around 22:00 MT4 server time - a simple sell with 9 pips TP and a light grid every 40 pips if the initial trade fails will net you positive pips most days... Thats not the strat used here but just an interesting observation I have made...
  • #13
  • Apr 11, 2021 7:48am Apr 11, 2021 7:48am
Not a tough one to reverse-engineer. It is a stubborn grid though.
The high win rate is also because of the grid.
  • #14
  • Apr 11, 2021 9:30am Apr 11, 2021 9:30am
Quoting Mr4x86
{quote} Thats exactly the one... Still trying to figure it out but I believe there is RSI involved with overbought / oversold. Just from looking at most days around 22:00 MT4 server time - a simple sell with 9 pips TP and a light grid every 40 pips if the initial trade fails will net you positive pips most days... Thats not the strat used here but just an interesting observation I have made...
some observations.
the chart shows the last 5 days of his trades.
seems that he trades 1-2 hours before NY close except sunday/monday (traded on monday).
he mentioned about rsi, stochastic, support/resistance, trend line.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #15
  • Apr 11, 2021 9:56am Apr 11, 2021 9:56am
Combination of strategies, here 3, and manual, is a very good sign!

Nothing prior to 2018 is not.

Ive seen plenty of beautiful curves of 3 years just stop in their 4th. Curious to see what happens the years prior.

Perhaps a nice find. Perhaps not. Be careful friends and good luck.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #16
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:35pm Apr 11, 2021 6:35pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} some observations. the chart shows the last 5 days of his trades. seems that he trades 1-2 hours before NY close except sunday/monday (traded on monday). he mentioned about rsi, stochastic, support/resistance, trend line. {image}
Nice observation Inthebox. You might be on to something there. I did notice in September 2018 was the only month of negative growth, where he definitely picked the wrong direction to trade. I think seeing where he went wrong would also shed light on what technical indicators his EA is following as well.
  • #17
  • Edited 12:17am Apr 12, 2021 12:00am | Edited 12:17am
Look at losing trades. He use averaging (same volume for 3 deals, then x3 for 4th deal) to get out from losers.


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Averaging step is 55 pips
  • #18
  • Apr 12, 2021 12:38am Apr 12, 2021 12:38am
Quoting joyny
Look at losing trades. He use averaging (same volume for 3 deals, then x3 for 4th deal) to get out from losers.  {image}  {image} {image} Averaging step is 55 pips
Yep he absolutely is gridding his way out of any trouble. My thinking was more about analysing his entries. Like if you use "indicators a, b, and c" and come to the conclusion that you would have also gone short at the same points he had, even during his losing trades, then those are probably the indicators that he is using and therefor the strategy can be duplicated. I think there is definitely some overbought / oversold RSI at play. not sure how he manages to get consecutive wins in one night going buy, then sell, then buy, then sell on consecutive candles though... pure luck at that point perhaps?
  • #19
  • Apr 12, 2021 12:44am Apr 12, 2021 12:44am
Quoting Mr4x86
{quote} Yep he absolutely is gridding his way out of any trouble. My thinking was more about analysing his entries. Like if you use "indicators a, b, and c" and come to the conclusion that you would have also gone short at the same points he had, even during his losing trades, then those are probably the indicators that he is using and therefor the strategy can be duplicated. I think there is definitely some overbought / oversold RSI at play. not sure how he manages to get consecutive wins in one night going buy, then sell, then buy, then sell on...
He enters every day in time span from 10pm. So he use 1M or 5M timeframe and some RSI or Stohastic with period less than 5 bars.
  • #20
  • Apr 12, 2021 2:22am Apr 12, 2021 2:22am
Quoting joyny
{quote} He enters every day in time span from 10pm. So he use 1M or 5M timeframe and some RSI or Stohastic with period less than 5 bars.
Definitely on the right course as well I think. Checking the entries on the 23rd March all his entries (buy, sell, buy, sell) except for the first buy entry, are all placed at overbought / oversold conditions on the 5 minute chart when looking at the 5-period RSI indicator and also the 5-5-3 Stoch indicator.

Could be holy grail? I mean it needs human intervention obviously but I've not seen anything else produce such consistent results over 3 years on a legit broker yet...
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