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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,381
  • Apr 10, 2021 3:42pm Apr 10, 2021 3:42pm
Quoting iluvyomumma
{quote} Is the weekly chart not also showing a 5 wave upmove? therefore, this downleg can't go below the height of wave 1 = 1.3489. I believe the demand from 4th feb (1.3581) is strong too so could force a surge long for wave 4 of this correction leg C. thoughts?? {image}
Sorry bro. I'm just not seeing that on my weekly chart.

G
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,382
  • Apr 10, 2021 3:54pm Apr 10, 2021 3:54pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Probably we just need to wait for market to show us a clear direction as at the moment there are different scenarios in play. Thanks
Yes Merka. After labelling an H4 chart one can make a case of another quick move up for one more wave. That is the big boys game room I mentioned in my previous post. I'd rather wait to be safe.

G
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,383
  • Apr 11, 2021 11:51am Apr 11, 2021 11:51am
Quoting Greenspanke
{quote} Sorry bro. I'm just not seeing that on my weekly chart. G
So what pattern can you see on the larger TF?
If we're currently in a corrective leg since the high at 1.42, what corrective leg as part of what pattern?
  • #1,384
  • Apr 11, 2021 12:27pm Apr 11, 2021 12:27pm
The COT report for euro is that although euro is net long, the weekly long contracts have been reduced by 2533 and short contracts had been increased by 3684. So we are anyway trading this on a counter trend basis coz trend for euro is long but short term trend is down. Now coming down to yields.. the 2 year yields and 10 year yields are strongly up. this also confirms long term trend of euro to be up. with Elliott wave, we notice that on daily chart, we don't seem to have completed the correction for wave 2. unless this is a double zigzag, which can be confirmed later on. so far the chart shows correction wave A then a pull back for B and now could be completing a C wave wit a last push down for wave 5 of C. after that we can have a strong push up (we will cover this later on).
Most of the currencies reported on COT seems to be weaker than USD this week, so we can expect a general strength in us dollar for the week.
On the economic front, we have consumer purchase index on 13th Apr which looks favourable for us dollar.
On 15th apr, we have retail sales which also looks favourable for the dollar, so these 2 are the major news for the week.
On the whole, i am expecting dollar to strengthen and most other currencies to weaken.

check the chart ... the 38.2 retracement is at 1.1693. This is TP1.
we have 1.1599 as the 4th wave of lesser degree and also calculating the fib expansion, this number coincides with 61.8 expansion, so this is my favourite TP due to confluence.
we have 1.1491 as third TP which 50% of retracement. ( least favoured TP)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu15.png Size: 54 KB
STING
  • #1,385
  • Apr 11, 2021 12:50pm Apr 11, 2021 12:50pm
On GBP/USD, notice that we are still on a bull trend and according to COT report GBP is more bullish than euro. This week, non commercials have decreased 1952 contracts on longs and increased 3056 contracts on shorts, these numbers means that we should be going down for the next few weeks. gbp yields are also high which confirms long term trend to be up.
The below chart shows my elliott counts . This are my assumptions as per technicals and COT, so treat this with caution and please don't bet the farm. The markets are always controlled by the big boys and is manipulated according to supply and demand of the retail traders activity for liquidity.

here is a daily chart.
The aqua color wave is the expansion and red wave is the retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu3.png Size: 56 KB
STING
  • #1,386
  • Apr 11, 2021 1:22pm Apr 11, 2021 1:22pm
Big thanks for all those who contributed their ideas in this thread. Keep going. I am kind of busy now-a-days with some other work ... so i can update the thread only around this time. Good luck with your trades.
STING
  • #1,387
  • Apr 11, 2021 5:59pm Apr 11, 2021 5:59pm
Quoting iluvyomumma
{quote} So what pattern can you see on the larger TF? If we're currently in a corrective leg since the high at 1.42, what corrective leg as part of what pattern?
Maybe I'm not as advanced as some are but I don't even know how or why Id start counting from 1.42.

G

LMFAO! My apologies mate. I think your chart is GBPUSD. Mine is EURUSD. Hahahaha.
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,388
  • Apr 11, 2021 6:50pm Apr 11, 2021 6:50pm
Lets see what happens. Shorted @ 1.1911
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,389
  • Apr 11, 2021 7:08pm Apr 11, 2021 7:08pm
seems the 1.19011 EURUSD fall begun
  • #1,390
  • Apr 12, 2021 12:34am Apr 12, 2021 12:34am
Quoting ForexIkeja
seems the 1.19011 EURUSD fall begun

Yes. I believe we are currently on wave 2. Lets see what happens.
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,391
  • Apr 12, 2021 12:44am Apr 12, 2021 12:44am
Quoting Greenspanke
{quote} Maybe I'm not as advanced as some are but I don't even know how or why Id start counting from 1.42. G LMFAO! My apologies mate. I think your chart is GBPUSD. Mine is EURUSD. Hahahaha.
haha ok this explains a lot. Yep I’m in GU, maybe stringfx can chip in when they’re back??
  • #1,392
  • Apr 12, 2021 1:45pm Apr 12, 2021 1:45pm
Quoting iluvyomumma
{quote} haha ok this explains a lot. Yep I’m in GU, maybe stringfx can chip in when they’re back??
This is my take on gbp/usd 1 hr/4hr. We are into a series of 1-2 1-2 waves . until we get a good impulsive move down, we are not considering a wave 3, besides fib ratios are not matching to see a wave 3 in this chart. We might suddenly see a big wave down and then we will label them properly. at the moment i can only see 1-2 waves being formed. selling is the key though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4.png Size: 64 KB
STING
  • #1,393
  • Apr 12, 2021 2:01pm Apr 12, 2021 2:01pm
eur/usd update...

I believe that a major wave 3 (orange) will be ending at 1.1600 at 161.8% of wave 1. This has a confluence with 61.8 target of wave 5 (white) of major wave 3. at the moment wave 4 (white) of 3 seems to have ended at 38.2% of minor wave 3(white). Now we can resume the downtrend for wave 5 (white). Most probably after tomorrow's news of consumer price index, we could see a good momentum downwards to 1.1600, after which we can see a maybe complicated 4th major wave to the upside which might take a long time to complete as it could be one of the complex corrections.
Here is a chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu16.png Size: 48 KB
STING
  • #1,394
  • Apr 12, 2021 2:24pm Apr 12, 2021 2:24pm
Quoting stringfx
eur/usd update... I believe that a major wave 3 (orange) will be ending at 1.1600 at 161.8% of wave 1. This has a confluence with 61.8 target of wave 5 (white) of major wave 3. at the moment wave 4 (white) of 3 seems to have ended at 38.2% of minor wave 3(white). Now we can resume the downtrend for wave 5 (white). Most probably after tomorrow's news of consumer price index, we could see a good momentum downwards to 1.1600, after which we can see a maybe complicated 4th major wave to the upside which might take a long time to complete as it could...
I guess you are thinking about a giant waveA made of these 12345 red. Isn't it?
If so you are expecting a deeper correction to maybe 61.8% or lower of the previous bull cycle
  • #1,395
  • Apr 12, 2021 2:55pm Apr 12, 2021 2:55pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} I guess you are thinking about a giant waveA made of these 12345 red. Isn't it? If so you are expecting a deeper correction to maybe 61.8% or lower of the previous bull cycle
yes ... that is a possibility but we can also assume that the correction will get over with this C wave as it has fulfilled the minimum requirement for a correction once this c wave ends. The next up move can be a bigger B wave or even the euro bull trend resumption. so we have to be careful at the correct fib level. B waves will retrace at least 50%, so we are quite safe until 50%, besides all this, we will also check COT reports and yield reports to confirm the proper direction. Lets all contribute our ideas to make lesser mistakes and more money

Good luck.
STING
  • #1,396
  • Apr 13, 2021 8:12am Apr 13, 2021 8:12am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} This is my take on gbp/usd 1 hr/4hr. We are into a series of 1-2 1-2 waves . until we get a good impulsive move down, we are not considering a wave 3, besides fib ratios are not matching to see a wave 3 in this chart. We might suddenly see a big wave down and then we will label them properly. at the moment i can only see 1-2 waves being formed. selling is the key though. {image}
You said that this current pattern we're in since 1.42 is a correction. So what is your overall opinion on the market as a whole? I thought we were in leg 4 of a weekly uptrend (leg 2 = March 2020 coronavirus) but others disagreeing with me. Thoughts?
  • #1,397
  • Apr 13, 2021 11:12am Apr 13, 2021 11:12am
Quoting iluvyomumma
{quote} You said that this current pattern we're in since 1.42 is a correction. So what is your overall opinion on the market as a whole? I thought we were in leg 4 of a weekly uptrend (leg 2 = March 2020 coronavirus) but others disagreeing with me. Thoughts?
hi buddy,
there are a couple of possibility when you are counting on a weekly basis. we are on a bull trend from march 2020, so this counter trend is a correction. It can be a 4th major wave or even a A wave which is a correction after 5 waves completes.

so my first chart which i am showing, i am under the notion that this is a 4th wave.

In the second chart, we will take it as a completed wave 1 and the retracement is for wave 2 correction.

Hope you understand the dilemma that people who use Elliott waves have to go through, so we take it as it comes and keep probabilities open. Here in both cases, the correction is bearish, so it's comparatively safe money-wise (hopefully).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu5.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu3.png Size: 56 KB
STING
  • #1,398
  • Apr 13, 2021 11:22am Apr 13, 2021 11:22am
Have you noticed eur/usd . apparently the correction is not over at 50%, maybe waiting to reach 61.8% . the last invalidation line is at 1.1900. i hope it does not go there. The funny thing is that even with good number on US CPI, eur/usd went up, looks like a stop hunt and with many stops getting hit, it's going higher but i am hoping it will stop at 61.8 and come down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu17.png Size: 48 KB
STING
  • #1,399
  • Apr 13, 2021 4:49pm Apr 13, 2021 4:49pm
Quoting stringfx
Have you noticed eur/usd . apparently the correction is not over at 50%, maybe waiting to reach 61.8% . the last invalidation line is at 1.1900. i hope it does not go there. The funny thing is that even with good number on US CPI, eur/usd went up, looks like a stop hunt and with many stops getting hit, it's going higher but i am hoping it will stop at 61.8 and come down. {image}
Concur with you.
It definitely looks like SL hunt
  • #1,400
  • Apr 14, 2021 11:46am Apr 14, 2021 11:46am
Quoting stringfx
Have you noticed eur/usd . apparently the correction is not over at 50%, maybe waiting to reach 61.8% . the last invalidation line is at 1.1900. i hope it does not go there. The funny thing is that even with good number on US CPI, eur/usd went up, looks like a stop hunt and with many stops getting hit, it's going higher but i am hoping it will stop at 61.8 and come down. {image}
I have an invalidation line to 1.19914 and we are very close it and probably will get hit.
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