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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #161
  • Apr 4, 2021 11:29am Apr 4, 2021 11:29am
Quoting ryuryu
As I see the problem with long term trading is that the DD can be very big. In short term day trading DD is lower. Now let's return to math. For example you have 10000$ and want to earn 0.05% daily which is 5$ (13%/year without any compound interest). With 1 lot size it is only 11 points (5$ gain and 5.5$ commission + 0.5$ spread). If you will trade 0.1 lot size you have to gain 110 points. If you will find 2-3 pairs to trade per day you can easy get 30 points each. For example today EU gain >294p, GU >426, AU >312, UC >288, UJ >239, UC >363 and...


It's possible to make at least $100 a week from accounts under $5k.

I have been growing accounts for years this way.

Made $24k in three months last year, from starting the year with only $500 at first, then later adding in $500-1k a month and grew it from there.

A $10-30k account can expect to reasonably get $250+ a day.
Love to talk on Discord: DividendGamer#1324
  • #162
  • Apr 4, 2021 11:37am Apr 4, 2021 11:37am
Quoting Varkeer
{quote} Because people are able to make better trades with their skill, experience, knowledge etc by placing manual trades.
I like logic. I don't like magic. So let's create a little spreadsheet and check.

EA | Manual
1. Using strict rules for entry 1 | 0
2. Using strict rules for exit 1 | 0
3. Always use SL 1 | 0
4. Any other forex fairy tale rule 1 | 0

In all cases EA will act faster and more accurate. How you can execute trades with 6 majors for example? This is impossible. Also EA can chase for unusual situations, for out-of-default behavior. Human can't.

For example you are making cakes. And you need a mixer to create the merengue. You can mix the eggs with flour manually for sure. Even you can use 2 mixers at once, because you have 2 hands. Also you can use your legs too, if you are a tricky person and want to impress forum people. But you can't use 5 and more mixers at once. But if you will automate the process you can use as much mixers as you need.

So how human can outperform computer power? Algos has no feelings, lunch times, fears and greed. They are much more faster and accurate.
Sorry, but I don't believe in "feel the market". But I believe in practice. Yes, you must practice a lot to pick up good entries. There is no other option. But anyway, if you have rules then they can be automated.
Observer effect
  • #163
  • Apr 4, 2021 4:49pm Apr 4, 2021 4:49pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I like logic. I don't like magic. So let's create a little spreadsheet and check. EA | Manual 1. Using strict rules for entry 1 | 0 2. Using strict rules for exit 1 | 0 3. Always use SL 1 | 0 4. Any other forex fairy tale rule 1 | 0 In all cases EA will act faster and more accurate. How you can execute trades with 6 majors for example? This is impossible. Also EA can chase for unusual situations, for out-of-default behavior. Human can't. For example you are making cakes. And you need a mixer to create the merengue. You can mix the eggs with...
Hi ryuryu

When I was coding, I came to a invisible wall and couldn’t find a way around it. While EA’s can trade 20 pairs at once with great efficiency, there remained a hurdle I couldn’t get past.
So let’s put this problem into a question.

Is trading 15 EA’s at once that has opened over 100 positions on many pairs, often trading a pair both ways with different strategy’s, can that be more profitable than just opening up a single manual trade of 5 lots for 5 minutes on a trade that offers a 95% win rate.?

OK that was a long question but my answer is after years of EA development and thousands of hours of labour, the single 5 minute trade earned more than having all those positions opened by dumb EA’s in a day.

Therefore more trades on multiple pairs earned me less than one great LARGE single trade.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #164
  • Apr 4, 2021 5:49pm Apr 4, 2021 5:49pm
Quoting RickM
Is trading 15 EA’s at once that has opened over 100 positions on many pairs, often trading a pair both ways with different strategy’s, can that be more profitable than just opening up a single manual trade of 5 lots for 5 minutes on a trade that offers a 95% win rate.?
There is only one answer - challange! EAs vs Manual. 1 year. 95% winrate manual trades versus 100 positions automated trades. The winner takes all glory & respect.

RickM vs ryuryu! The final battle. Live on myfxbook.
  • #165
  • Apr 4, 2021 6:16pm Apr 4, 2021 6:16pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} There is only one answer - challange! EAs vs Manual. 1 year. 95% winrate manual trades versus 100 positions automated trades. The winner takes all glory & respect. RickM vs ryuryu! The final battle. Live on myfxbook.
Would like to join the challenge with my humble EA which opens only ~14 BUY deals per year on Microsoft stock. I will put 100 USD on it and show results in myfxbook.

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  • #166
  • Apr 4, 2021 9:47pm Apr 4, 2021 9:47pm
So what is the brutal truth of day trading? I see future millionaires everywhere in this thread, day trading and swing trading the same.
  • #167
  • Apr 5, 2021 6:00am Apr 5, 2021 6:00am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi ryuryu When I was coding, I came to a invisible wall and couldn’t find a way around it. While EA’s can trade 20 pairs at once with great efficiency, there remained a hurdle I couldn’t get past. So let’s put this problem into a question. Is trading 15 EA’s at once that has opened over 100 positions on many pairs, often trading a pair both ways with different strategy’s, can that be more profitable than just opening up a single manual trade of 5 lots for 5 minutes on a trade that offers a 95% win rate.? OK that was a long question but my...
"on a trade that offers a 95% win rate"

what system has 95% win ratio?
can you share?
  • #168
  • Apr 5, 2021 6:37am Apr 5, 2021 6:37am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi ryuryu When I was coding, I came to a invisible wall and couldn’t find a way around it. While EA’s can trade 20 pairs at once with great efficiency, there remained a hurdle I couldn’t get past. So let’s put this problem into a question. Is trading 15 EA’s at once that has opened over 100 positions on many pairs, often trading a pair both ways with different strategy’s, can that be more profitable than just opening up a single manual trade of 5 lots for 5 minutes on a trade that offers a 95% win rate.? OK that was a long question but my...
I have the same wall too. But I know there is a door somewhere, just have to search for it harder ))
Observer effect
  • #169
  • Apr 6, 2021 12:34am Apr 6, 2021 12:34am
Quoting robots4me
@RickM is smarter, wiser, more experienced, more conscientious and far more honest than you, then you might consider giving some thought to his advice. Or, at least go easy on boasting how your evidence-, statistical-, EA-based trading is superior to discretionary trading...
Fully agree. No challange needed here anymore.
  • #170
  • Apr 6, 2021 12:50am Apr 6, 2021 12:50am
Quoting venividivici
My luxury vehicles and homes disagree.
thumbs up mate
  • #171
  • Apr 6, 2021 6:51pm Apr 6, 2021 6:51pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I like logic. I don't like magic. So let's create a little spreadsheet and check. EA | Manual 1. Using strict rules for entry 1 | 0 2. Using strict rules for exit 1 | 0 3. Always use SL 1 | 0 4. Any other forex fairy tale rule 1 | 0 In all cases EA will act faster and more accurate. How you can execute trades with 6 majors for example? This is impossible. Also EA can chase for unusual situations, for out-of-default behavior. Human can't. For example you are making cakes. And you need a mixer to create the merengue. You can mix the eggs with...

Why would I waste time on multiple pairs when I trade only one pair at a time based on what is the best trade setup at hand?

Of course you use rules for entry and exits.

Honestly do you even know how to trade?

I have been profitable for now close to seven years, have posted plenty of proof of my trading ability.

Where is your 90% win rate over months like mine?

Logical fallacies and inept tautological statements don't work on educated people dude.
Love to talk on Discord: DividendGamer#1324
  • #172
  • Apr 6, 2021 9:07pm Apr 6, 2021 9:07pm
Hi All
I think trading in the financial markets is somewhat complicated until the trader can find his way, some find that the profitable path is manual trading with the acquisition of experience with time on several stages somewhat long road
and others find his profitable path through the Auto trading it is also stressful until you can trust the expert and identify the best profitable settings.
But both paths must be based on knowledge and then the experience

regards,
  • #173
  • Apr 7, 2021 1:57am Apr 7, 2021 1:57am
The real life realistic reality, is most people have an "employee" type deep mentality, that is etched into them by previous generations. Therefore, being self employed is not 'natural' for them. This is why some people only do some kind of trading activity for 1hr a day then meanwhile, get on with the other activities that make up their life. So day trading is a self starter and really only suits some people.

It's also why some people can have higher than usual overall closure success rates. But that's a different story. My experience has shown that most people think of trading as a game or an intellectual exercise. But if you ask someone who has been actively day trading for a long time, they will say, in their own way, that trading is simply about looking for value that can be understood. If it can be understood, it can be gauged and traded. Then as long as the person has an in-depth back-up plan in case something happens (eg. a new world war begins etc), the trader can do other things without being locked into day trading as their sole source of income. Nothing lasts forever.

Just my 2 bits.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #174
  • Apr 7, 2021 6:17pm Apr 7, 2021 6:17pm
PeterCaleb is exactly right. Most of those who will fail/are failing/have failed at forex trading have never really succeeded at anything significant in their lives. That's not to say they are bad people. Most who try forex trading, at some point and in some way, were good employees, where success was largely determined by their ability to show up on time and follow directions -- qualities that they believe are all that's necessary to make millions in the forex. All you need to do is turn on your trading station at the NY open, follow someone's trading approach, and rake in the cash. And when the millions don't materialized and instead losses begin to pile up, well, it's the broker cheating you, or bankers running stops, or randomness, or an all-powerful algo that's responsible for their failure.

Fact is, 98% of those who fail at retail forex trading were, at best, just average employees someplace else in their lives. None of them were qualified to perform surgery, run a successful business, fly the F35, design a new drug, let alone trade foreign currencies on the forex market.

About 25 years ago, before the beginning of retail forex trading, there was a lively debate about the wisdom of allowing "retail" forex traders access to the forex market. Bankers were against the move, not because they were protecting their turf, but because they held the belief that people in the general public were not qualified to trade currencies. Everything that I've ever read on FF proves the bankers were correct. The brutal truth in day trading the forex is, 98% of those who try aren't qualified to trade, and not qualified by a wide margin.
  • #175
  • Apr 7, 2021 7:10pm Apr 7, 2021 7:10pm
What I would like to say in response here to what GEfx has said is .....

In a certain context all of "that" is correct. However, many of the bankers I have known (and known well) are just PEOPLE. Just like everyone else. It comes down to a person's primary interest. The bank people I know and knew, at some point, took up a strong interest in the financial world. Does that mean they are smarter? No. Generally not. But it is their interest that keeps them involved. People would be surprised to know exactly what many of them are REALLY like. Not all are ass!@#$%. Even many of the top performers and earners are just people, with family and friends and hobbies. They just happen to have a job that pays better than other peoples' job/work. Of course I am generalizing here but I hope you get the point.

Would I say "everything" on this site proves the bankers were right? If I was being objective and truthful, then I would say No. Not true or accurate. Perhaps a large percentage but not 100%. I find the demeanor of the "older status" members here and elsewhere online, to be simply the flipside of the coin to the people who are new to FF and/or trading in general. Same kind of underlying attitude but one is stale and one is very porous to suggestibility.

I sense it has been a VERY long time since "the people" have really had ANY fundamental involvement in the financial world and this has created an enormous gap between the general public and the financial community. If people stopped chasing information, they would understand that real learning is just a process. I remember years ago, I bet my banking friend, that I could out trade him. The result was that I did. BUT not because I'm better, but because I had less rules to follow and restraints on my decision making process. I could act in a more efficient way because he had to use a process that made him more accountable to his boss. Whereas I was free to move in and out as I deemed necessary and in an appropriately timed manner.

So, you see, the basic real truth, is simply the learning practices of the person. Be it someone in a Banking Corp. or the individual.

I sense the "older status" members as well as the new people, have become far too 'comfortable' in their ways and means of doing things.

I also find, that many people lack basic self respect. It's easy to spot because they choose to argue with someone over opinions or information rather than the basic truth of things.

And I suppose it doesn't help if you don't REALLY know who you are talking to on here. But I know myself and what I know and can do. So I have nothing to prove to anyone. Listen and learn or don't. The choice is always the same.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #176
  • Apr 7, 2021 7:25pm Apr 7, 2021 7:25pm
Actually it would depend on what's considered significant. Many would think being a good husband or father as being significant, many might not. Success comes in many forms.

I do think as far longer term versus day trading you have 2 main personality types. Longer term traders are more rules oriented, like to take their time coming to a decision, more likely to play well with others. This makes them more suited to the longer term trading.

Day traders the good ones I know tend to keep things very simple, like to make decisions on the quick side and hate being told what to do. I figured out in college while pursuing an accounting degree that working for someone would be a disaster. Through high school and college I always had my own businesses. After school I opened a construction company. But even though I was in charge still had to listen to customers(damn) and employees(double damn). Then I discovered trading perfect, no customers no employees, damn day trading is actually more relaxing. If only I'd figured it out earlier.
  • #177
  • Apr 7, 2021 8:52pm Apr 7, 2021 8:52pm
There a lots of ways to trade successfully. Lots of types of successful traders also... Strange, prejudice filled, judgmental, ignorance quadruppppply-filled thread. In all politeness, ,sincerely. P.S thank you for those of you who have shared YOUR truth, for keeping this thread a tiny bit real. Ignoring (unless its constructive) those who believe they know THE truth, of trading, of others... not black an white world, far from it !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #178
  • Apr 7, 2021 9:33pm Apr 7, 2021 9:33pm
Regarding automated trading....LTCM. They ran algos, then a black swan got them and there was no algo to get them out of it. It is impossible to account for every variable, therefore, this can and will eventually kill every EA. The question comes up as to whether or not a human, can "sense" something wrong, like when correlations begin to break down. This happened in 2000 and again in 2008.

@Rick M., I think this is the wall you hit. Speculation of course.

@ryugu, can your EA's respond to a black swan and initiate a portfolio stop?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #179
  • Apr 7, 2021 9:40pm Apr 7, 2021 9:40pm
If you throw 100 traders from all different backgrounds into a room together. And just let them sit there and stew for a while. And just observe. You will find out who you are dealing with.

The only principle concept that has withstood the test of time in trading, is this .....

A person who is truthfully and consistently succeeding at their trading is the person who knows and understands what they're dealing with and knows and understands HOW to deal with what they're dealing with. Everyone else is just guessing and hoping and following someone else who is just as lost or confused.

Call this opinion if you want but it is present in the underbelly of every person that gets involved in the financial markets, whether you're talking about a private trader or a person in an organisation. Forget style because that's all rubbish. That's like saying that chocolate flavored ice cream is the best over all the other flavors. Once a person has become a well rounded trader, they can appreciate the simple truth of all this. Everyone else has something more to learn. Sorry. Didn't want to waste people's time so I just got straight to the point.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #180
  • Apr 7, 2021 9:52pm Apr 7, 2021 9:52pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
If you throw 100 traders from all different backgrounds into a room together. And just let them sit there and stew for a while. And just observe. You will find out who you are dealing with. The only principle concept that has withstood the test of time in trading, is this ..... A person who is truthfully and consistently succeeding at their trading is the person who knows and understands what they're dealing with and knows and understands HOW to deal with what they're dealing with. Everyone else is just guessing and hoping and following someone...
Ah Peter, the one with all the secrets! Everyone is guessing and hoping except you, did I read that right?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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