The brutal truth of day trading | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The truth about trading 164 replies

Truth about trading 9 replies

Truth about online trading...Is this us also? 5 replies

Pulos Bill - The Truth About Fibonacci Trading (Attached) 4 replies

The Bonehead Trader..please be brutal!! 47 replies

Attachments: The brutal truth of day trading
Exit Attachments

The brutal truth of day trading

  • #81
  • Edited 10:46pm Mar 30, 2021 10:26pm | Edited 10:46pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote}...About low TF that is noisy. It is not. Low TF is exactly the same...
A misconception -- of course lower-time frame candles are more noisy than higher-time frame candles. There is no such thing as candles or bars -- the only data is tick data. Ticks know nothing about candles or bars. Candles / bars are artificial constructs that compress tick data for our viewing pleasure.

How many ticks per minute -- let's say 20. So an M1 candle gets 20 data points to construct its OHLC. Compare that with an H4 candle that gets to use 240x20=4800 data points to contruct its OHLC. Which candle do you think more accurately reflects the price at that candle's particular point in time? The candle composed of 20 ticks or the candle composed of 4800 ticks? The fewer the data points means more "noisy". An M1 candle may still be "good-enough" to trade -- but it is misleading to state that LTF and HTF candles are equally "noisy".

EDIT: If LTF candles were as accurate as HTF candles, then let's trade tick data -- ticks are the ultimate LTF candle. But, of course, we don't trade ticks -- because they are too noisy...
  • #82
  • Mar 30, 2021 10:49pm Mar 30, 2021 10:49pm
Quoting remonpilip
source: https://www.quora.com/Why-are-commod...ent-strategies
Thank for information! Sufficiently subjective opinion. The main thing is not to allow an unambiguous look in conditions of fractal chaos.
  • #83
  • Mar 31, 2021 12:49am Mar 31, 2021 12:49am
Alternative title: How to get cyber bullied
  • #84
  • Edited 1:27am Mar 31, 2021 1:10am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hey remonpilip! I've got your idea. You say that it is better to catch 1 good trade and gain 12%/year but not to try to gain 1%/month. But I can't agree. It seems to me it is magic, or luck. But there is no magic in the world. But math and physics exists for sure. I think time and gravity together is the key. Moving average called average because it is average. And the price will always cross it sooner or later. Another example: look at the majority of traders. They even don't know how indicators works. They apply stoch and rsi together,...
Hello ryuryu,,

referring to:
You say that it is better to catch 1 good trade and gain 12%/year but not to try to gain 1%/month.

I rarely reply questions such as this (individual theoretical statements, no offence.)
but I feel like I need to clarify & add to this statement further, this is what most newer traders get wrong in the first place.

First of all,
you can't predict the future. you can only react to it.


Secondly,
you can't control the market. you can only control your money management.


Thirdly,
you can't control your emotions (i.e. feel happy whenever you want to, not feel greedy whenever you want to). you can only be aware of it.
further clarifications: people who can 'control' their emotions doesn't even feel anything in the first place, they are numb even before they get to feel the emotions.
Quote
“Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.” - Sun Tzu
that, I believe is called Zen.

further clarification: if you ever see someone that is really mad and their face turns tomato red and kept their composure, I view that process as being really angry, then being aware of it and react to it accordingly.

same goes for the timid who successfully become the bold:
first the timid has to be very scared, then be aware of it and just keep doing it.


Fourth,
the 'skill' is not on predicting where price will go, but in the risk management and the discipline to keep trading the same edge until you get lucky.
And by lucky I mean when the probabilities starts to work in your favor.


Fifth,
if you want to gain 12% a year, your total profits will have to be +36% with a total loss of -24% in that year.
(note: total loss and drawdowns have different meanings)

this will result in a profit factor of 1.5

which lies on the average profit factor of realistic returns.
(which is around 1.2 - 1.8) (source1 , source2)
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #85
  • Mar 31, 2021 8:25am Mar 31, 2021 8:25am
God, what have I just read ...
Why do you have an idea that a trader who prefers to trade in the short term will suddenly try himself in the long one? If I trade intraday and make money on it, why should I place a trade and keep it open for a month f.ex.?
Or where did you get the idea that traders who trade in the long term never lose? I know examples when a trader didn't close an order for a long time in the hope that the market will reverse. But the miracle didn't happen...
Therefore if someone follows your advice its his right. As for me, nonsense is written here.
  • #86
  • Mar 31, 2021 8:34am Mar 31, 2021 8:34am
If you get really angry or greedy and don't let that cloud you judgement how is that not controlling your emotions? Unless you have psychiatric issues you have emotions. Some are very outwardly emotional, some very stoic and most somewhere in the middle, but all feel normal human emotion. Not letting emotion drive your judgement is controlling that emotion.
  • #87
  • Mar 31, 2021 9:57am Mar 31, 2021 9:57am
Quoting rockypoint
If you get really angry or greedy and don't let that cloud you judgement how is that not controlling your emotions? Unless you have psychiatric issues you have emotions. Some are very outwardly emotional, some very stoic and most somewhere in the middle, but all feel normal human emotion. Not letting emotion drive your judgement is controlling that emotion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spock-Death-Grip.jpg Size: 82 KB


If people could control they emotions, we wont need shrinks.

Focusing and keeping mind clear some period of time is possible, but cant control subconsious. How you know how much your trading faults are because of your mama spank you too much.

When begin trading as a newbie its good do mental exercise like what athlets do. Learn act without thinking.
Keeping mind clear, people who has done extreme activities where serious injuries are possible, know cant think anything else, or it cant hurt much or security cheks will take long time because bones are full of titanium in best scenario.

If cant focus trading more than 90%, should not trade that momment.
Doing mental exercises will help do execution without thinking or second quessing.
Fx is too slow for rapid learning these skills, good way to speed up the process and get feedback, is trading ES futures during market open.

Chan(zen) can help too, but it can take years or decade.

Are Profitfarmer and Rick Vulcan's i dont think so.
  • #88
  • Mar 31, 2021 10:21am Mar 31, 2021 10:21am
Here's a simple and effective way to take emotions out of trading. Set position size at 0.01 lot and leave it there until you make profit 3 months in a row. Most new traders don't have the self control developed yet to do that. They are still obsessively chasing that dragon of quick riches. It's a great irony that one must abandon all hope of getting rich quick to find success in Forex. - G
  • #89
  • Mar 31, 2021 10:59am Mar 31, 2021 10:59am
Quoting remonpilip
The first thread post must be at this place
Hello
I support the opinion about any strategy must include the statistical edge, actually take into account those factors that allow to determine the moment when this statistical edge appears. In addition, even if the profit result is good, a good trader need to constantly look for new sequences and historical key junctions that will increase the statistical edge.
  • #90
  • Mar 31, 2021 11:21am Mar 31, 2021 11:21am
It was about how to deal with emotions. Yes, the easiest way is to initially find and accept the correct behavior model, but each of us is individual. After more than 10 years of trading, I know mistakes can occur from time to time and need to be tracked.
I would say achieving self-confidence helps in a number of problems, just as getting used to certain procedures will influence your standards of behavior during trading.
Very often the problem is hidden in a few little things, but these little things like "Ever given"
  • #91
  • Edited 12:06pm Mar 31, 2021 11:42am | Edited 12:06pm
F... The statistics, they come after action and best way to lie. Statistics not tell anything else than what happend past, its not edge.
Example psyquation pages show very exellent trader few years back who was top of list best score, people put money to his trading about 1 mio,
it was Also mql5 shop. Bang, small hickup s&500 , out of bussiness, and not lot of happy clients. Statitsics and Ai scoring system didnt help.
  • #92
  • Edited 2:58pm Mar 31, 2021 2:47pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} hey BlackNapkins, Sorry, let me clarify my usage of "MOST" If you read the wikipedia page I sent. and I quote: "A 2019 research paper analyzed the performance of individual day traders in the Brazilian equity futures market. Based on trading records from 2012 to 2017, it was concluded that day trading is almost uniformly unprofitable: We show that it is virtually impossible for individuals to compete with HFTs and day trade for a living, contrary to what course providers claim. We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013...

I don't want to argue with you, but, do you have any proof that your trend following strategy works ? where is YOUR proof ?


ohhh...


"20 percent of investment professionals are successful investors. Success could be defined as producing returns that are as good or higher than the average profits earned in the stock market"

maybe 99% of them just got lucky lol
  • #93
  • Edited Apr 1, 2021 2:45am Mar 31, 2021 2:57pm | Edited Apr 1, 2021 2:45am
statistics are meant to predict... you don't know your actual probabilities.
  • #94
  • Mar 31, 2021 3:10pm Mar 31, 2021 3:10pm
and I would like to add... if you think that you can "feel" or guess where price is going, take a break. .. it means you losing your mind IMO

feel free to disprove me by posting some stats... I posted my stats several tiems.
  • #95
  • Mar 31, 2021 3:16pm Mar 31, 2021 3:16pm
Quoting HeyYou
and I would like to add... if you think that you can "feel" or guess where price is going, take a break. .. it means you losing your mind IMO
Yes. Always the same song. EAs are not good, TA, PA not working, but feelings plus weekly TF is the key. Yep. In 2021. Waiting when they will start to ban calculators. Only paper and pencil. Only hardcore!

Ok, I'll ride a horse, or I'll be late for my zeppelin.
Observer effect
  • #96
  • Mar 31, 2021 3:24pm Mar 31, 2021 3:24pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Yes. Always the same song. EAs are not good, TA, PA not working, but feelings plus weekly TF is the key. Yep. In 2021. Waiting when they will start to ban calculators. Only paper and pencil. Only hardcore! Ok, I'll ride a horse, or I'll be late for my zeppelin.
disrespecting backtesting / statistics... I used to get pissed off in the past lol

now I'm a naysayer so I don't really care anymore...
  • #97
  • Edited 3:53pm Mar 31, 2021 3:36pm | Edited 3:53pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Yes. Always the same song. EAs are not good, TA, PA not working, but feelings plus weekly TF is the key. Yep. In 2021. Waiting when they will start to ban calculators. Only paper and pencil. Only hardcore! Ok, I'll ride a horse, or I'll be late for my zeppelin.
@ryuryu -- you don't care much for "magic", yet you use the word "statistics" as though they were your "magic". What kind of "statistics" are we talking about here? There are a variety of different types of "stats" that can be computed. And, of course, we should all know by now that different "statistics" can conflict with one another, right? I mean -- do all the "statistics" have to align or do we allow for some variation?

@ryuryu -- I keep seeing people throw out the word "statistics" as if they provide the HG -- but unless you can be more specific then it comes across as just more hand-waving.

By the way -- I, personally, do value stats -- to some degree. But I would never state that my preference for stats makes me a better trader than someone who's trading methodology doesn't rely on them.

Whether discretionary or algorithmic -- we trade in real-time -- NOW. Statistics are computed from historical data and can't save your ass if the market changes and your trade heads south. Though I trade algorithmically -- I greatly value the wisdom that discretionary traders bring to the table...
  • #98
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:32pm Mar 31, 2021 4:32pm
Quoting robots4me
What kind of "statistics" are we talking about here? There are a variety of different types of "stats" that can be computed. And, of course, we should all know by now that different "statistics" can conflict with one another, right? I mean -- do all the "statistics" have to align or do we allow for some variation?
You go to investor and try to pich "i will earn money with this awesome strategy X. I did 3 trades and all win. Give me 100k capital."

You are that investor. Every time a "guru" is pitching you an strategy you must ask some aditional info... and yes it is STATISTICS.. any trading idea must be backed up with statistics. And EAs provide that info.

Dont start to trade manualy if you dont have stats for your strategy. Get it then manualy in Excel by manualy walking charts back 3 to 10 years.

Otherwise it is stupid blindly decision to trade.
  • #99
  • Mar 31, 2021 5:01pm Mar 31, 2021 5:01pm
Thankyou the original poster Remonpilip. Great first post it rang a lot of bells. Several quality posts as a result thankyou to ALL contributors. Even the few and there were very few I disagree (more likely misunderstand as Im not the sharpest tool in the box).
A couple of additions.
How one "feels about a trade"?
The market moves up and down my emotion which I reckon is a decent way of going about this trading should be of not giving a s88t.
Why?
I'm not over leveraged and if i lose everything (which i wont through risk management learned through playing poker for years believe it or not and I never bust any accounts during that time either) I can still feed, house and support all those around me who depend on me if my account goes to zero.
SO
Yes trade day week month year, EA, manual, whatever floats yer boat but don't give up your job? For most profitable traders (OF WHICH I AM NOT!!!!) earning a decent wage at trading requires capital the level of which many dont have in the first place. Illustrated in earlier posts.
Finally as i do go on.
Initially have the determination to develop your strategy or strategies to take money out of the market purely for the buzz of having the ability to do so on a regular basis. My attitude is not to decide what colour my next yacht will be more like how many beers I can buy my mates.

And thats what it is at the moment Im a losing player (4 years so far) but I'm only losing beer money. (I have money to properly invest in this but not yet as I'm still s88t at this.) I just want to beat the markets pure and simple. BUY or SELL pure and simple.

Banter
The elites think we are stupid. They are in the main quite correct.
  • #100
  • Mar 31, 2021 5:18pm Mar 31, 2021 5:18pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} You go to investor and try to pich "i will earn money with this awesome strategy X. I did 3 trades and all win. Give me 100k capital." You are that investor. Every time a "guru" is pitching you an strategy you must ask some aditional info... and yes it is STATISTICS.. any trading idea must be backed up with statistics. And EAs provide that info. Dont start to trade manualy if you dont have stats for your strategy. Get it then manualy in Excel by manualy walking charts back 3 to 10 years. Otherwise it is stupid blindly decision to trade.
@joyny -- did you read my post? Did you read the line that says " I, personally, do value stats"?

Like @ryuryu, you use the word "statistics" as a baseball bat. There are "statistics", and there are "STATISTICS". People who are familiar with statistics know you can choose from a variety of different statistics to support any point of view -- depending on your agenda. Furthermore, let's suppose you choose a particular stat -- at what threshold value do you claim it represents a successful / failed strategy? As an example, take a simple stat -- WinRate. What's a successful strategy -- a WinRate above 0.55? 0.80? 0.35? Can you or @ryuryu answer that question?

If you are going to throw the word "statistics" around, then be specific. Otherwise, as I mentioned above, it's just more hand-waving...
2 traders viewing now