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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,301
  • Mar 29, 2021 11:08am Mar 29, 2021 11:08am
Quoting blurbear
Beware if Low is taken out decisively. {image}
it did not break decisively, so means still in corrective . Could turn out to be complex sideways consolidation.
  • #1,302
  • Mar 29, 2021 11:13am Mar 29, 2021 11:13am
Quoting stringfx
Here is my big picture... {image}
looks good . Similar to what I have in mind. However, I dun rule out B as a weak sideways, not reaching 1.20. Painted a possible SHS except a weak right shoulder like what we had in 2018?. So now is too early . Or we could be wrong and those that counted 1,2,3 with now 4 is right. Thus, even though I am very bearish , I do also keep an open mind and watch out for signs that i am wrong.
  • #1,303
  • Mar 29, 2021 11:14am Mar 29, 2021 11:14am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} it did not break decisively, so means still in corrective . Could turn out to be complex sideways consolidation.
or an expanded flat with b wave terminating beyond the start of a wave.
STING
  • #1,304
  • Mar 29, 2021 11:19am Mar 29, 2021 11:19am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} looks good . Similar to what I have in mind. However, I dun rule out B as a weak sideways, not reaching 1.20. Painted a possible SHS except a weak right shoulder like what we had in 2018?. So now is too early . Or we could be wrong and those that counted 1,2,3 with now 4 is right. Thus, even though I am very bearish , I do also keep an open mind and watch out for signs that i am wrong.

Hey buddy ... you remind me of this video from last samurai.

Inserted Video
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  • #1,305
  • Edited 11:39am Mar 29, 2021 11:23am | Edited 11:39am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} or an expanded flat with b wave terminating beyond the start of a wave.
Yes. 0r can be yet more complex. With now doing y leg..could be beyond a, but just beyond only.. who knows, maybe even do a z wave.

edit..
something like this is what I am watching. Or it could change again suddenly for the squiggles for scalping.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,306
  • Edited 11:44am Mar 29, 2021 11:23am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting stringfx
Here is my big picture... {image}
A (need break 4) to make A, because its rule. Im not perfect counting but you can check or couting from 2000 year 2000. Its like 3 must break 1 and 5 break and above (3). But nice counting, and if you count and follow this pattern its for long term. And my suggestion to counting alternatives and lets see point critically point. If i see (critical point at (b) and 4.

Good luck if you trade with it you must stay away until break the critical point. And entering on possibility of retracement

Check it.

and your counting come true if break 1.1989 level and cant break (y) or (b). defferent perspective but your counting it can be alternative scenarios for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,307
  • Mar 29, 2021 11:29am Mar 29, 2021 11:29am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Hey buddy ... you remind me of this video from last samurai. https://youtu.be/NbecIBvR3mE
haha.

I always believe that Mkts n biggies are too smart for us. They are well versed in all the tools we used and the can easily create what we wish to see. Never for one moment do I think I am smarter than mkt with all my analysis or my system. Always be prepared to be wrong and pay the price via stops no matter how convinced I am in my views.
  • #1,308
  • Mar 29, 2021 12:06pm Mar 29, 2021 12:06pm
Quoting blurbear
{quote} haha. I always believe that Mkts n biggies are too smart for us. They are well versed in all the tools we used and the can easily create what we wish to see. Never for one moment do I think I am smarter than mkt with all my analysis or my system. Always be prepared to be wrong and pay the price via stops no matter how convinced I am in my views.
I totally agree ... been there done that and got burnt many times ...
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  • #1,309
  • Mar 29, 2021 12:17pm Mar 29, 2021 12:17pm
Quoting corongumet
{quote} A (need break 4) to make A, because its rule. Im not perfect counting but you can check or couting from 2000 year 2000. Its like 3 must break 1 and 5 break and above (3). But nice counting, and if you count and follow this pattern its for long term. And my suggestion to counting alternatives and lets see point critically point. If i see (critical point at (b) and 4. Good luck if you trade with it you must stay away until break the critical point. And entering on possibility of retracement Check it. and your counting come true if break 1.1989...
I think you are using a translator because it is difficult to actually understand the description .. but your chart is self explanatory. very similar to mine. thanks
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  • #1,310
  • Mar 29, 2021 12:21pm Mar 29, 2021 12:21pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} I think you are using a translator because it is difficult to actually understand the description .. but your chart is self explanatory. very similar to mine. thanks
bad english, sorry

forexfactory is my room to improve my english.
  • #1,311
  • Mar 29, 2021 2:17pm Mar 29, 2021 2:17pm
Quoting stringfx
Here is my big picture... {image}
This weekly chart make sense to me and so your counting on daily.

Question about EURUSD daily:
as per your and mine picture we finished bull 12345 and now almost completing correction abc after the bull phase.
if so, after a full 8 cycles the trend should resume upward (as per Elliott perpetual growth stage ) but it's not going to happen as we will be doing just waveB on weekly that is usually short (also this waveB will be in 3 sub-waves).
Hope you understood where is my confusion.
Cheers
  • #1,312
  • Mar 29, 2021 9:59pm Mar 29, 2021 9:59pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} This weekly chart make sense to me and so your counting on daily. Question about EURUSD daily: as per your and mine picture we finished bull 12345 and now almost completing correction abc after the bull phase. if so, after a full 8 cycles the trend should resume upward (as per Elliott perpetual growth stage ) but it's not going to happen as we will be doing just waveB on weekly that is usually short (also this waveB will be in 3 sub-waves). Hope you understood where is my confusion. Cheers
There need not be any confusion Merka, if you notice the previous bull trend, the last 5 waves made 1720 pips and once completed, the pair is exhausted with that bull run and it needs a deep enough correction, so on the fibonacci ratios, you have to expect a 50% to 61.8% retracement on 2nd waves. 4th waves are generally shallow with a 38.2% retracement usually as it is a continuation wave but once 5 waves are over, you will get a deeper correction, so since price does not move in a straight line up or down, you will get these 3 wave corrections.

Here i am giving you another example with fibs. do you see the similarity? hope you are clearer now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,313
  • Mar 29, 2021 10:02pm Mar 29, 2021 10:02pm
Quoting corongumet
{quote} bad english, sorry forexfactory is my room to improve my english.
No problem but try to make it simple . if you mention so many things in one line, people will get confused. use full stops so that one part is clear. then use the 2nd line to explain the next part. Keep trying and you will improve your communication. good luck
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  • #1,314
  • Mar 30, 2021 10:16am Mar 30, 2021 10:16am
US index monthly. Interesting. And w2, w4 alternation..Perfect channeling on close basis for the waves..any thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,315
  • Mar 30, 2021 11:24am Mar 30, 2021 11:24am
quite a possibility ! Lets see how it plays out.
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  • #1,316
  • Mar 30, 2021 11:42am Mar 30, 2021 11:42am
Quoting stringfx
Quoting pips4life
{quote} Hi stringfx, Kudos to you because you nailed it. Although EURUSD initially went up at market open this past week, that was a retrace after which it went significantly down (and you said to go short too, or at least not go long after that retrace had occurred). Before asking my questions, let me say that I was drawn to this thread because I have studied Elliott waves and am interested to see how it can supplement my own different methods which are Ah... Finally someone who has asked all the right questions . I would
...
Hi stringfx,

Just wanted to say thank you for all your posts and info about COT. I am taking it all in, which is taking a lot of time and further research to understand, but I didn't want to wait any longer before acknowledging you for your kind help.

Kent (pips4life)
  • #1,317
  • Mar 30, 2021 1:40pm Mar 30, 2021 1:40pm
Quoting pips4life
{quote}{quote} Hi stringfx, Just wanted to say thank you for all your posts and info about COT. I am taking it all in, which is taking a lot of time and further research to understand, but I didn't want to wait any longer before acknowledging you for your kind help. Kent (pips4life)
The pleasure is all mine buddy. Actually nobody can understand it too well because we are dealing with hedgers and millions of dollars of investments every week to move the market. I wouldn't spend too much time on COT analysis. all you need is the basics to find the right direction of the market. after that use your personal strategy to make money. Good Luck !!!
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  • #1,318
  • Mar 30, 2021 2:17pm Mar 30, 2021 2:17pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} There need not be any confusion Merka, if you notice the previous bull trend, the last 5 waves made 1720 pips and once completed, the pair is exhausted with that bull run and it needs a deep enough correction, so on the fibonacci ratios, you have to expect a 50% to 61.8% retracement on 2nd waves. 4th waves are generally shallow with a 38.2% retracement usually as it is a continuation wave but once 5 waves are over, you will get a deeper correction, so since price does not move in a straight line up or down, you will get these 3 wave corrections....
Thanks a lot
  • #1,319
  • Mar 30, 2021 11:59pm Mar 30, 2021 11:59pm
Many looking at wedge in red, completed and looking for sharp rebound...what if we are only somewhere in c leg of wedge in black? Depending on where the c leg ends, the rebound d leg may be sharp or flat sideways before final e leg down...

edit..oops. The ‘e?’ Label should be ‘d?’...

or it may not be doing a wedge. If wedging, no strong rebound for time being perhaps..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,320
  • Edited 4:12am Mar 31, 2021 3:56am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting blurbear
Many looking at wedge in red, completed and looking for sharp rebound...what if we are only somewhere in c leg of wedge in black? Depending on where the c leg ends, the rebound d leg may be sharp or flat sideways before final e leg down... edit..oops. The ‘e?’ Label should be ‘d?’... or it may not be doing a wedge. If wedging, no strong rebound for time being perhaps.. {image}
Can't help you in patterns, i am more of a fibonacci target person and IMHO we have completed the 5 wave pattern and now the correction is on with minor waves and major waves. We seem to have also completed the A leg of this massive corrective move. We could be starting the B leg of the major wave. In this hourly chart, we should be getting at least a push to 23.6 at least 1.1805. i am sure it's not going to stop there but initial targets is that. Don't bet the farm though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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