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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #3,521
  • Mar 27, 2021 12:14pm Mar 27, 2021 12:14pm
NG finished the week with the lowest ATR that I have seen.
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  • #3,522
  • Mar 29, 2021 4:10pm Mar 29, 2021 4:10pm
NG went up 2¢ today with an average ATR that produced two break even trades and two winning trades. Please note that the last arrow is probably a false signal since the FxBay MACD is positive so it's likely that the last red candle will reverse.
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  • #3,523
  • Mar 30, 2021 4:11pm Mar 30, 2021 4:11pm
NG went down 2¢ today with an average ATR that produced only one winning trade. As expected yesterday the last arrow was a false signal since the FxBay MACD was positive and stayed positive as the next brick was positive.
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  • #3,524
  • Mar 31, 2021 4:07pm Mar 31, 2021 4:07pm
NG went down 1¢ today with an average ATR that again produced only one winning trade. It also looks like that the downtrend will continue at the opening of the new session as the FXBay MACD is negative.
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  • #3,525
  • Apr 1, 2021 4:18pm Apr 1, 2021 4:18pm
NG went up 2¢ today with an average ATR that produced 1 winning trade and 2 break even trades.
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  • #3,526
  • Apr 5, 2021 4:15pm Apr 5, 2021 4:15pm
NG went down 9¢ today with a higher than average ATR that produced no new trade except the continuation trade from Friday.
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  • #3,527
  • Apr 6, 2021 4:14pm Apr 6, 2021 4:14pm
NG went down 6¢ today with a higher than average ATR that produced 1 nice short trade.
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  • #3,528
  • Apr 7, 2021 4:16pm Apr 7, 2021 4:16pm
NG went up 6¢ today with an average ATR that produced an average short trade at the end of the session. Better would have been the continuation long trade from yesterday.
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  • #3,529
  • Apr 8, 2021 4:06pm Apr 8, 2021 4:06pm
NG went up 1¢ today with a very low ATR that produced no trades. A very unusual flat trading day.
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  • #3,530
  • Apr 9, 2021 4:10pm Apr 9, 2021 4:10pm
NG went down 1¢ today with a low ATR that produced 1 nice short trade.
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  • #3,531
  • Apr 12, 2021 4:15pm Apr 12, 2021 4:15pm
NG went up 5¢ today with a slightly low ATR that produced 1 short trade not counting the trade that started at the beginning of the session which would have been a nice 6 ticks trade.
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  • #3,532
  • Apr 13, 2021 4:15pm Apr 13, 2021 4:15pm
NG went up 7¢ today with average ATR that produced 1 nice long trade of 6 ticks and a small short trade.
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  • #3,533
  • Apr 14, 2021 4:11pm Apr 14, 2021 4:11pm
NG ended up with the same price today as yesterday with an average ATR that produced 1 short trade.
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  • #3,534
  • Edited 6:33am Apr 15, 2021 6:23am | Edited 6:33am
Hi Hutch,

I've downloaded your Half Trend strategy and I'm very excited to test it.
I have one question though: you often write about the ATR in your posts.
Does it in any way influence your trading or the brick size you use, or do you just post it out of interest (since a high ATR means volatility which means higher likelihood of moving markets)?

Or is it because the indicator (Half Trend) gives more bad signals in lower ATR environments?

cheers, bippo
  • #3,535
  • Apr 15, 2021 1:41pm Apr 15, 2021 1:41pm
Quoting bippo
Hi Hutch, I've downloaded your Half Trend strategy and I'm very excited to test it. I have one question though: you often write about the ATR in your posts. Does it in any way influence your trading or the brick size you use, or do you just post it out of interest (since a high ATR means volatility which means higher likelihood of moving markets)? Or is it because the indicator (Half Trend) gives more bad signals in lower ATR environments? cheers, bippo
The Half Trend TT is immune to the ATR and also to the Renko brick size but sometimes it gives a bad signal. In the first picture below the signal should have been on the previous brick so it was a bad signal. On the other hand, since we enter into a trade at the opening of the next brick and the brick was in the wrong direction the bad signal had no effect since I didn't take that trade. Unless you have a lot of time on your hand I cannot recommend trading Natural Gas. Best is to trade high ATR GBP pairs or CFDs but CFDs are dangerous because of the high tick values. Trading low ATR pairs with low Renko bricks size can also be profitable depending on your time zone. I wasn't awake at 1 a.m. today to enter into the USDCAD trade.
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  • #3,536
  • Apr 15, 2021 3:57pm Apr 15, 2021 3:57pm
Hi Bippo. In addition to the post above you may want to take a look at these charts. EURUSD 5 pips Renko and EURUSD 2 pips Renko. As you can see trading low ATR pairs is a lot more profitable using small Renko bricks.
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  • #3,537
  • Apr 15, 2021 4:12pm Apr 15, 2021 4:12pm
NG went up 4¢ today with average ATR that produced a long trade of 4 ticks and a very small short trade.
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  • #3,538
  • Apr 16, 2021 3:07am Apr 16, 2021 3:07am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} The Half Trend TT is immune to the ATR and also to the Renko brick size but sometimes it gives a bad signal. In the first picture below the signal should have been on the previous brick so it was a bad signal. On the other hand, since we enter into a trade at the opening of the next brick and the brick was in the wrong direction the bad signal had no effect since I didn't take that trade. Unless you have a lot of time on your hand I cannot recommend trading Natural Gas. Best is to trade high ATR GBP pairs or CFDs but CFDs are dangerous because...
Thank you Hutch for taking the time to respond. It's great to hear that the system is mostly immune to ATR and I understood the explanation about the bad signal. I'll experiment with it!
  • #3,539
  • Apr 16, 2021 4:27pm Apr 16, 2021 4:27pm
NG went up 3¢ today with a very low ATR that produced nothing since the arrow was a false signal since the FXBay MACD was still positive.
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  • #3,540
  • Apr 17, 2021 11:48am Apr 17, 2021 11:48am
Quoting Hutch
NG went up 3¢ today with a very low ATR that produced nothing since the arrow was a false signal since the FXBay MACD was still positive. {image}

Good day Hutch

What is the best setup or a system to trade NG in your opinion and best time frame for a longer term trade setup ?
"When you lose, you learn to Win" - Snr Me
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