backtest to reality, simple question

Dear Traders and FF Community,

i have some EA which im giving following settings:

Stopp Loss: 45 pip
Take Profit: 45 pip
Entry: random
spread: 2 pipp

and i am backtesting it from 2016 - 2019!

The EA that i have (an similar EA s too) make as an Result in the backtesting period of 4 years:

winning trades (50,39% - 647 Trades)
losing trades (49,61% - 637 Trades)



so the results are as expected " astonishing close " to 50 % 50 % ! i was looking for this result!


now i would like to know if in real trading (live), it would happened also?
so to speak is the backtest really near to reality? Can i expect around 50% to 50% ratio in live trading too? or is it only in backtest? which factor are considered on about 1300 trades, that this backtest made, in real life trading? different then in backtests in generell?


as i dont have 4 years to test it in demo or live with low money i would like to have and/or need your experience if the result ist about 50% to 50% too in (live) trading? or is maybe not 50% 50% around? and why?
i would like to know that


kr

Hi vortexpme,

maybe u need to repeat the backtest with a better modeling quality, 99% or 100% would be great.

About ur question, you can have a very nice 4, 6 or 10 years 99% quality backtest, and the strategy start to fail in when u start trading demo or live or add 1 more year baktest

Nothing guarantees u that a strategy that has been successful in the past, will be successful in the future too

Thanks a lot. My question is more about the ratio (this time) not the succes.

I put TP:SL 1:1!
Both 45 pipps

The result shouldnt be a profit nor a loss it should be 50% to 50% ~ !

Im just askin if it will be 50% wins and 50% losses in real life cause of the 1:1 TP to SL? Or are they bigger divergences in real life like 48% 52%?

I wanna know how precise the outcome is if i trade 1:1 ratio ... with 45 pips tp and 45 pips sl.

Is it then after f.e. 1000 somewhere in the range 49-51% ??? Or less?

Cause 1:1 ratio is like a coin flipp -> its heads or tails similar? Cause it can get a win with as much probability as a loss. And in the backtes it was about 50% precise! So i wann know if it will be in real life too around 50% wins and also 50% losses or bigger difference like as i said an other exemple 46 - 54 % wins and losse althought its 1:1 SL : TP !

Do you know what i mean?

Thanks, kr

You can also put other 1:1 ratio s in TP:SL

Like

30 : 30 pips TP to SL
25 : 25 pips TP to SL
15 : 15 pips TP to SL

All have the same probability of 50% winning and 50% losing.

But if you backtest for example 15:15 pipps your result is 46%:54% because the ea is also including spread and with this smaller pipps size of course spread effects the outcome of the winning ratio !

But

I found out that if i do more then 35 pips TP:SL in a 1:1 ratio that it is always in backtest (i did 20 backtests and more) really like a coin toss. Its always somewher near, after more than 1000 trades, somewhere near to 49-51%

But if i do smaller TP:SL ratio the divergence is bigger its not like a fair coin toss anymore (cause of spread)

So i wanna know, if i really did for example 45:45 pipps trading, with a spread always lower then 1.5 f.e pips if i would get between a 49-51% ~ win and loss ratio in live trading

Or is there more to consider in life?

I cant do 4 years of trading 1:1 ratio 45:45 pips (cause it needs long) to get the proof (its just to long)so im trying to ask here if someone has experience or same question or maybe solution already.


So i dont wanna win with these strategy, i just wanna know if markets in live behave like a coin toss

Kr

For my idea of trading i need to test 1:1 ratio at least 1000 trades long.

Its not the money, you r right but the time!

Thats why i thought someone maybe has experience already in that

Thanks a lot!! Anyway!

Kr

Hi, I did the same reverse martingale strategy with TP20pips and SL18pips with USDJPY forward tested for a year.

And you are trying to figure out how this will go in the long term isnt it?

Long story short, I wanna tell you that the market behave like a coin toss MOST OF THE TIME. But when strong fundamentals kick in, the market no longer behave like a coin toss zigzag chart.

So I had been researching how to maximize profit with this strategy for many years.

If you are interested to hear more, let me know.