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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #14,261
  • Mar 27, 2021 11:25am Mar 27, 2021 11:25am
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} I didn't take this trade as I was not looking at this pair. However I recently posted on the use of BG's fib use as a good tool to add to our arsenal. The example I used was that once the fib was started as BG states, we also start a reversal fib from the projected 0 level. If price goes beyond the first fib, we can use the second fib for extension targets. In the case of the GJ, we can see by dropping to the H4, price had closed below and retraced to the shadow which is also the 78.6 and 23.6 fibs. The shadow then turned red and price continued...
Whoa everyone! Be very, very careful with applying fibs willy nilly! BG's fib strategy is very specific - apply it at the wrong place, at the wrong time and on the wrong time frame and you can say "goodbye" to your account. However, the "standard" use of fibs is still very effective..................................sometimes, when it works.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,262
  • Mar 27, 2021 11:54am Mar 27, 2021 11:54am
Quoting Lou
Hey Strat.... I am asking a favor. Would you list the Volatile 11 . I accidentally tossed that part of my journal ... on paper... a month or so ago and at the time I had 16 pairs . Also been thinking about handling the 'little people' by trading one pair intra day on low TF (30mn, 15, 5 ) At the same time trading others on Weekly / Daily. Thank you kindly.
Attached Image
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,263
  • Mar 27, 2021 12:05pm Mar 27, 2021 12:05pm
Quoting Scrumy
{quote} FINALLY someone else posted his winrate. And I'm glad it's you, strat. Cause back at the beginning of my journey you said something like 90% winrate - and that was something I couldn't believe at all. I also have in mind that the RRR was something like 7.6, which is an exponential equity curve skyrocketing to the moon. {quote} (For anyone interested: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post11854984). I don't know why you said that back then, but it seems your winrate is similar to mine. Would you mind sharing a bit...
Good to see you back posting, Scrumy.

It seems you have confused the stats of D1 trading with M15/M5 trading.

85/90% win rate was for D1 trading. My current win rate for M5 trading is 45%. The two cannot be compared.

R:R is very misleading as it is dependent on the state/structure and time of the pair you are trading. Basic PASR trading is usually 1:1 while PASR Trend Trading can be..............well, name your price.

I don't worry about R:R or other stats - they mess with my head - only %Profit and, after the trade is complete after all, no-one really knows where PRICE is going to go at any point in time.............except for the pizza man!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,264
  • Mar 27, 2021 12:08pm Mar 27, 2021 12:08pm
Quoting PipTracy
Eurcad h1 {image}
Thanks for posting. Although they say "a picture is worth a thousand words" some commentary would be helpful for others on here who don't "see" or understand the picture.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,265
  • Mar 27, 2021 12:10pm Mar 27, 2021 12:10pm
Quoting TerryDawe
Took a short term swing trade on EC this week closing today at BRN 1.4800. Entry on move back below shadow and fib 38. {image}
Another great H4 PASR Trend Trade, Terry, although I don't understand your trend line. I might have to check H4 since you and I are in the same time zone.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,266
  • Mar 27, 2021 12:19pm Mar 27, 2021 12:19pm
Quoting Lou
Also been thinking about handling the 'little people' by trading one pair intra day on low TF (30mn, 15, 5 )
Also been thinking about handling the 'little people' by trading one pair intra day on low TF (30mn, 15, 5 )

The big problem with this, Lou, is that the pair you choose may not be tradable every day. GBPUSD has been a cow this last week running my win rate from 47% down to 45% with not much %Profit growth for the effort involved. For my M5/M15 NY trading I am going back to only trading those pairs which are either trending during London or have gone into a tight range/consolidation after the London trend in anticipation of a breakout in NY.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,267
  • Mar 27, 2021 12:21pm Mar 27, 2021 12:21pm
Quoting Baba G
"Cause, let's be honest, most of you have, or will, blow hundreds if not thousands on accounts before you figure this out. If you ever do. I can help you not do that." That statement is a matter of fact. Not opinion or prejudice. "Need," is a very loaded accusation, which is also your opinion and insulting. Like you have any idea about who I am, and what I need. You know absolutely nothing about me. I think (opinion) this whole exchange exemplifies the "need" for schooling in many of the liberal arts and sciences. Or perhaps a quote from Sherlock...
The problem is that many expect teaching liberal arts and science has to be free. So who can afford teaching them by heart if they have to make a living?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #14,268
  • Mar 27, 2021 12:44pm Mar 27, 2021 12:44pm
Quoting strat
{quote} Another great H4 PASR Trend Trade, Terry, although I don't understand your trend line. I might have to check H4 since you and I are in the same time zone.
Thanks Strat,

That is not a trend line on the right, it is the entry and exit line from the trade.

Regards
Terry
  • #14,269
  • Mar 27, 2021 1:01pm Mar 27, 2021 1:01pm
Quoting strat
{quote} Why create a new abbreviation? We already have SR for Support and Resistance - no need to create more confusion on here.
Noted my Coach.

Thank you
  • #14,270
  • Mar 27, 2021 2:27pm Mar 27, 2021 2:27pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Thanks Strat, That is not a trend line on the right, it is the entry and exit line from the trade. Regards Terry
Not that one, the one on the left
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,271
  • Mar 27, 2021 2:37pm Mar 27, 2021 2:37pm
Quoting strat
{quote} Also been thinking about handling the 'little people' by trading one pair intra day on low TF (30mn, 15, 5 ) The big problem with this, Lou, is that the pair you choose may not be tradable every day. GBPUSD has been a cow this last week running my win rate from 47% down to 45% with not much %Profit growth for the effort involved. For my M5/M15 NY trading I am going back to only trading those pairs which are either trending during London or have gone into a tight range/consolidation after the London trend in anticipation of a breakout in...
Good to know...
Have used the Market Timing attachment but is often written in sand. The hours might be off by 1 hr DST

Also Thanks for the looonnnggg list.
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  • #14,272
  • Mar 27, 2021 4:12pm Mar 27, 2021 4:12pm
Quoting strat
{quote} Not that one, the one on the left
That's the line that appears when I draw my fib. I guess I can change the color so it doesn't show so much.
  • #14,273
  • Mar 27, 2021 4:26pm Mar 27, 2021 4:26pm
Quoting strat
{quote} Whoa everyone! Be very, very careful with applying fibs willy nilly! BG's fib strategy is very specific - apply it at the wrong place, at the wrong time and on the wrong time frame and you can say "goodbye" to your account. However, the "standard" use of fibs is still very effective..................................sometimes, when it works.
Thanks for the caution Strat, much appreciated.

I am not putting most of my energy in BG fibs but I do like the approach of how he starts his fibs. I have tried them many different ways from short term new ones on each retrace to leaving them longer.

I do like the way he starts them so I am using them as a starting point and trying to add my own twist.

I still use PASR and shadow as the main focus of my trading and trying to see how the fibs add confluence.

Again thanks
Terry
  • #14,274
  • Mar 28, 2021 12:35am Mar 28, 2021 12:35am
Quoting strat
{quote} Back in 2006 through 2009, I traded the Weekly for my investments and then as trends dried up, I focused on the Daily and then in recent years I dropped down to M15/M5 for a quick in/out with little draw down and no holding over night. In hindsight I look at GBPJPY and think it's time to get back to LONG TERM, STRESS FREE TRADING. Rub, if you didn't see the GBJPY Daily trade means you are not identifying PASR {image}{image}{image}
I don't know what else to say. I'm not having a go at you or anyone else, but if I'm not identifying PASR like that it's a showstopping kind of problem isn't it? Maybe it's one of the head game things, or maybe not, but I keep missing obvious trades like that and I don't know how to fix that.

Recently I've been sticking to trading 5 minute charts of the GBPUSD in the first few hours of the London session so I can be focused, but I'd love to get the hang of daily charts.

Quoting strat
{quote} Also been thinking about handling the 'little people' by trading one pair intra day on low TF (30mn, 15, 5 ) The big problem with this, Lou, is that the pair you choose may not be tradable every day. GBPUSD has been a cow this last week running my win rate from 47% down to 45% with not much %Profit growth for the effort involved. For my M5/M15 NY trading I am going back to only trading those pairs which are either trending during London or have gone into a tight range/consolidation after the London trend in anticipation of a breakout in NY.
I reckon my most successful trades have been trading the London continuation of the Asian trend. It appears to happen a couple of times a month that Asia will trend a little and London launches it.
  • #14,275
  • Mar 28, 2021 2:30am Mar 28, 2021 2:30am
Quoting Rub
{quote} I don't know what else to say. I'm not having a go at you or anyone else, but if I'm not identifying PASR like that it's a showstopping kind of problem isn't it? Maybe it's one of the head game things, or maybe not, but I keep missing obvious trades like that and I don't know how to fix that. Recently I've been sticking to trading 5 minute charts of the GBPUSD in the first few hours of the London session so I can be focused, but I'd love to get the hang of daily charts. {quote} I reckon my most successful trades have been trading the London...
Hey, rub. Why don't you make cheat sheet. It helped me a lot. I did make one and it proved helpful to me. There are picture of trades i wish to take and i watch them while i trade. It is simple to do. I know what i am looking for when price hits SR or SS. Start trading the daily do not hesitate at all.
You attract what you think in any area of life, relationships and trading!
  • #14,276
  • Mar 30, 2021 12:39am Mar 30, 2021 12:39am
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Excellent post Pete, One comment about PASR being PA at SR. Strat early on stated that the most powerful areas are ones that have acted as Support And Resistance not just Support OR Resistance. Thanks for this very well thought out and written post. Regards Terry
Hi Terry

Yes, I agree 100% with you. thank you for highlighting this.

Pete
  • #14,277
  • Mar 30, 2021 12:45am Mar 30, 2021 12:45am
Quoting Rub
I'm struggling with the psychology of low win rate, cutting the losers and letting the winner run. I'm currently sitting on about 50%, but my losses are hitting my stop, and maybe half my "wins" are a couple of pips from moving my stop to break even plus a bit to protect my capital
Hi Rub

Just a question: do you find that price often will move in the direction of your intended trade after hitting your stop at breakeven?
  • #14,278
  • Mar 30, 2021 12:56am Mar 30, 2021 12:56am
Quoting Rub
{quote} I don't know what else to say. I'm not having a go at you or anyone else, but if I'm not identifying PASR like that it's a showstopping kind of problem isn't it? Maybe it's one of the head game things, or maybe not, but I keep missing obvious trades like that and I don't know how to fix that. Recently I've been sticking to trading 5 minute charts of the GBPUSD in the first few hours of the London session so I can be focused, but I'd love to get the hang of daily charts. {quote} I reckon my most successful trades...
Hi Rub

Maybe this view on the worker will help? You are more than welcome to ask questions...

Regards
Pete
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  • #14,279
  • Mar 30, 2021 1:36am Mar 30, 2021 1:36am
I am back and forth with Twee at FF at the moment.

I am looking into options regarding my future here on the FF.

I will be 100% transparent and keep you posted.

Basically, so far it looks like I have to chose between being only allowed in the commercial section if I want to create a paid service. I have asked Twee at FF what that would mean and what FF can do to help.

I just can't see a way to pass on what I know unless people lock in for at least 3 years. That little fib tool is just the tip of the iceberg. Also, imagine the amount of content needed!

Let's just leave it there for now anyway.

In the mean time I thought I would drop you a little line on the algo and my general take on the market and general comments.

Algo is strong, it produced 4 signals this month, all doing what I would expect. The interesting thing is I had to pass on them because of my entry criteria and

rules of engagement. We are definitely in a news driven cycle at the moment, and have been for some time now. This month marks the one year anniversary of

what I am calling the Corona markets. Over this year I have seen a higher percentage of order clusters engage as a result of news than in previous years.

Despite that, my Y/Y growth is 81% with an average of 4 trades a month. Average duration of a trade is 16 hrs. No B/E and no losses. The pass rate, or the

amount of signals I pass on because of news is a massive 3.2 trade per month.

That's frustrating. A lot of tracking for nothing.

I am glad to see people posting about win rates and trading psych. The two go hand in hand. Better choices lead to better psych. Both are built on a structured program of understanding and reading of the markets, and this takes years and years.

What has brought this all up for me, my motivation for posting here on the FF is because I am training my son to run the algorithm.

He just could not understand why we would let those trades go this month, even though the signals that I pass on still have all worked. I was explaining to

him the importance of sticking to your trading plan, no matter what, and how long it takes to create such a plan.

I cried blood so you don't have to, know what I mean?

I imagine this news driven market will continue until September, then I hope we can get back to some serious trading!

In the mean time feel free to reach out if you fancy an extra slice.

May the trading God/s (or none) bring you a happy spring holiday!

G
  • #14,280
  • Mar 30, 2021 2:04am Mar 30, 2021 2:04am
Quoting JCMPete
{quote} Hi Rub Just a question: do you find that price often will move in the direction of your intended trade after hitting your stop at breakeven?
Maybe half the time I'd estimate.

Are the numbers marked on your chart entries you would've taken? I try to pay attention to the previous high/low, and the S/R areas I draw from higher time frames, along with price action near the shadow. I just keep missing the candles themselves and realize hours or a couple of days after.
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