daily range Strategy | Page 15 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strategy: Daily Range Spike and Pull Back 161 replies

Daily Range Strategy 19 replies

Range/Last = range in %... help find the bug... 2 replies

How to get range of h/l on previous day's range? 1 reply

Another Daily Range Strategy GBP/USD 23 replies

Attachments: daily range Strategy
Exit Attachments

daily range Strategy

  • #281
  • Edited 5:16am Nov 7, 2006 5:02am | Edited 5:16am
Micardo,

Would appreciate your opinion on my very low profit targets since you have a lot of experience in this strategy. BTW, todays candle would have made my 5 pips even with a 70 pip straddle. Had a nice late night push. Still, perhaps 60 would work better. Who knows? Matt
  • #282
  • Nov 7, 2006 5:10am Nov 7, 2006 5:10am
Is anyone getting the EA to work (GBPBreakout) not working on my Platform did not generate any trades all settings checked out, or must the EA be complied before running it.?
  • #283
  • Nov 7, 2006 5:32am Nov 7, 2006 5:32am
The pdf below gives some statistical values for all types of moves. Perhaps it's helpful for us to find the best parameters.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Forex Report - Predicting Price movement.pdf   642 KB | 2,402 downloads
  • #284
  • Nov 7, 2006 5:46am Nov 7, 2006 5:46am
Very interesting. So then would I be able to assume that on a daily chart for GBP/USD if I just want 5 pips I'll be able to get it 95% of the time just by using a 10 pip straddle? This is relatively the same as waiting for a 50 pip trigger and getting the pips then. Although the 50 pip trigger day chart success rate is .8% below the 10 pip trigger.

Would be nice to explore if the 50 pip trigger has less a chance of getting stopped out if we use a 30 pip SL to protect ourselves in a 5 TP strategy. Using their numbers though, at 95% accuracy at being able to get 5 pips when triggered after 10 pips, we would be able to profit 325 pips out of 100 trades. 95 winners at +475 and 5 losers at -150. SL of 20 might be fine. With a 10 pip trigger we're guaranteed to hit one side of the trade and win every time however. So really with a 10 pip trigger for daily chart when we hit a SL of 20 and it reversed then the other trade has already been triggered and is likely to take profit so each time it happens its really only 15 or 25 pip loss depending on if you used a 20 or 30 SL. So really its +400 off of 100 trades. Thats also not considering times when it would be profitable on both trades considering the ease to hit both versus the difficulty to hit both successfully in a 50 pip straddle.

Some things to consider although I am not so sure if I'll straight up believe 95% accuracy. We'll need to look into it. Matt
  • #285
  • Nov 7, 2006 5:57am Nov 7, 2006 5:57am
Quoting permanentjaun
I am not so sure if I'll straight up believe 95% accuracy. We'll need to look into it.
Matt,

that's a point. We must verify the accuracy of these numbers. Nevertheless their statistics seem to be quite reasonable, IMHO.
  • #286
  • Nov 7, 2006 6:30am Nov 7, 2006 6:30am
Permanentjuan,

I feel that if you could get your strategy to a high win percentage then excellent. A few pitfalls are and im sure you've heard this a thousand times before:

1: Yes there is enough movement easily at least in the GBP/USD market to make 5 pips a day (Average range is 140)

2: Stop loss placement is the key to this success. As with my strategy in theory when you look at a daily chart only, it cant lose. But you need to take the daily noise into account as this can often stop you out. Maybe a good strategy would be to put triggers in at London open a few pips above and below daily support and resistance. Then put you stop the opposite end. So for example... you have a buy trigger in at 5 pips above daily resistance, your stop loss for that trade should then be 5 pips below daily support. This way you are giving the trade room to breath but at the same time saying that if my buy is triggered then it retraces below the days low then I will come out as it is likely to break to the downside.

I dont have the exact figure but something to this effect could work.

I also trade breakouts and these are all things I consider when trading... hope this helps.
  • #287
  • Nov 7, 2006 6:40am Nov 7, 2006 6:40am
Quoting permanentjaun
Micardo,

Would appreciate your opinion on my very low profit targets since you have a lot of experience in this strategy. BTW, todays candle would have made my 5 pips even with a 70 pip straddle. Had a nice late night push. Still, perhaps 60 would work better. Who knows? Matt
...try to stradlle at 55 & 35 (long & short) just after 5pm est and target profit 50 pips or more, works well with cable ....check your daily candles for this november...you'll see 2 days (out of 5 days) of 50 pips or more profit .
  • #288
  • Edited 9:47am Nov 7, 2006 8:27am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting kamanda
...try to stradlle at 55 & 35 (long & short) just after 5pm est and target profit 50 pips or more, works well with cable ....check your daily candles for this november...you'll see 2 days (out of 5 days) of 50 pips or more profit .
Thanks for hint Kamanda how you figured out 55&35? What about SL for short and long?

Do you use broker in USA, sometimes closing prices at different platforms differ.

Thanks!
Quidquid latine dictum sit altum viditur
  • #289
  • Nov 7, 2006 2:27pm Nov 7, 2006 2:27pm
Can someone post a chart example of how the second strategy would have traded on Friday. Unless I'm wrong, you would have been whipsawed to death that day, correct?

My London open price was 1.9091. Price later hit 1.9111 on the next 1 hour bar. That would have got you long with a stop at 1.9091. Stop was hit on the next bar, so that's -20 on 3 lots (-60). You then enter short on the same bar when 1.9071 was hit. The stop on that trade was then hit at 1.9091. So that's another -20 on 3 lots (-60). Another short signal came later when 1.9071 was hit again, and went on to make +14, +30, and +80. So that's +4 for the day excluding spread.
  • #290
  • Nov 7, 2006 2:49pm Nov 7, 2006 2:49pm
Hi Kamanda,


I have a couple more questions regarding your 55/35 range strategy. Do you monitor it throughout the day and night as it progresses. Or, do you set your OCO orders and Take Profit and Stop Loss levels and just let everything ride?

Also, you mentioned that sometimes you'll just get 10 and other times up to 50+ pips. When it has moved up to 10, do you move your StopLoss to lock in profit?

1 more: If you were to make 10 pips on the "buy" side and then it reversed and triggered your "sell" level (35 pips from open) would you take that trade and double up, or would you let it go, having already made 10 pips for the day?

Thanks again,
B
  • #291
  • Nov 7, 2006 3:05pm Nov 7, 2006 3:05pm
hmmm ... Interesting thread.
  • #292
  • Nov 7, 2006 9:31pm Nov 7, 2006 9:31pm
Quoting kamanda
...try to stradlle at 55 & 35 (long & short) just after 5pm est and target profit 50 pips or more, works well with cable ....check your daily candles for this november...you'll see 2 days (out of 5 days) of 50 pips or more profit .
Thanks for the suggestion. I will look into that later. Again, I'm only looking for 5 pips to get myself going. I've been theorizing strategies for several weeks now and realize I just needed to get myself back into the game. So with my spare time I'm doing the simple straddle system to get 5 pips a day.
  • #293
  • Nov 7, 2006 9:47pm Nov 7, 2006 9:47pm
Thanks for the suggestions. Unfortunately that's not what I'm looking for. I too am looking for a system where an EA could be applied. So looking for support/resistance wouldn't be possible.

I've just moved my pip straddle to 60 pips. I think this is a happy medium between filtering out even more possible shadow trades and the opposite end of entering trades at the end of their run.

I think we need to look into a similar SL system just like we've looked for entries after so many pips. What is the likely pip swing on a retrace? We want to filter our the retraces and find more actual movements to the downside. Is a typical retrace 70 pips? Probably not. Is a typical retrace 10 pips? Very possible. So where in between is a good point to not get ourselves involved with typical retraces?

Right now since I'm only placing one trade a day for my 5 pips off of GBP/USD I am usually home to hear the alarm as the trade is triggered at night. I'd like to discuss optimum pip straddle amounts for other major currencies as well. My money management strategy needs to capitalize on finding multiple currencies to give me 25 pips a day when only requiring very few pips from each currency.

Anyways, I'm not so sure I can believe the percentages on the pdf file posted in the thread. Just quickly looking at a GBP/USD daily chart I've found several instances where the price moved 10 pips in one direction and did not give even 5 pips more. Check out 10/18, 10/11, 10/8. Those are three quick examples just in the last month. I don't have the time to bother checking further, but I expect similar trading can be found all through out the chart. If moving 10 pips was really 95% accurate at predicting the next 10 pips then it can only have 2 more instances on the chart. I found those in just 30 candles. So I have to say the numbers in the pdf aren't true. Anyone disagree? Matt

Quoting Micardo
Permanentjuan,

I feel that if you could get your strategy to a high win percentage then excellent. A few pitfalls are and im sure you've heard this a thousand times before:

1: Yes there is enough movement easily at least in the GBP/USD market to make 5 pips a day (Average range is 140)

2: Stop loss placement is the key to this success. As with my strategy in theory when you look at a daily chart only, it cant lose. But you need to take the daily noise into account as this can often stop you out. Maybe a good strategy would be to put triggers in at London open a few pips above and below daily support and resistance. Then put you stop the opposite end. So for example... you have a buy trigger in at 5 pips above daily resistance, your stop loss for that trade should then be 5 pips below daily support. This way you are giving the trade room to breath but at the same time saying that if my buy is triggered then it retraces below the days low then I will come out as it is likely to break to the downside.

I dont have the exact figure but something to this effect could work.

I also trade breakouts and these are all things I consider when trading... hope this helps.
  • #294
  • Nov 7, 2006 10:23pm Nov 7, 2006 10:23pm
Just curious if anyone is using the EA for this and how its working?
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #295
  • Nov 8, 2006 1:02am Nov 8, 2006 1:02am
Quoting permanentjaun
So I have to say the numbers in the pdf aren't true. Anyone disagree?
Matt,

I think it depends on market conditions. The numbers seem to be quite accurate when there's some strong momentum in the market. I doubt that they are true in non-trending markets.
  • #296
  • Nov 8, 2006 12:37pm Nov 8, 2006 12:37pm
I ran the EA a few times with the default parameters (except changing StartTimes and BaseTimes) on cable 30 min.
In all cases, my account was down in the end.

Quoting YupYup
Just curious if anyone is using the EA for this and how its working?
  • #297
  • Nov 8, 2006 1:17pm Nov 8, 2006 1:17pm
Hi People Sorry haven't been here for a few days...

Regarding EA's they seem to be giving some real issues. Its like I was given one the other day which I used to back test and the days were completely different to the results I had whilst actually forward testing. There is something really strange in these EA's but they don't seem to be returning the same reults. Any one have any thought?
  • #298
  • Nov 8, 2006 3:42pm Nov 8, 2006 3:42pm
Pick a month and place all of your trades on charts with entry and exit price arrows in MT4. Be sure to follow the rules precisely. Save the chart as a template file and send it to your friendly EA creator along with instructions as to which broker you're using (so they can use the same platform). Also, provide a trade log in spreadsheet format. Be sure to have notes column where you can insert notes pointing out discrpancies between your manual backtests and the EA entries/exits. Also, be sure to described the precise settings you're using in the EA.

That should help him/her a lot with spotting possible issues with the EA (and/or discovering inconsistencies with the strategy should they exist).

Good luck!

Quoting Micardo
Hi People Sorry haven't been here for a few days...

Regarding EA's they seem to be giving some real issues. Its like I was given one the other day which I used to back test and the days were completely different to the results I had whilst actually forward testing. There is something really strange in these EA's but they don't seem to be returning the same reults. Any one have any thought?
  • #299
  • Nov 10, 2006 4:29am Nov 10, 2006 4:29am
Just to update my trades since last Thurs :-

Using the London open 8am price and setting the trades +20 and -20 pips away with a TP of 14.

Date Trade Triggered @ + Total pips

11/2 1.9055 14
11/3 1.9083 14
11/6 1.8963 14 (sell order triggered)
11/7 1.9060 14
11/8 1.9078 14
11/9 1.9047 21 (my miscalculation with TP sell order)
11/10 1.9100 14

Most days, especially like today far more pips could have been gained but for time constraints and the fact I can't sit in front of the computer all day.
Also my spread betting trading platform is very limited in what it will let me do regarding setting partial sell/buys, so to keep everything simple I have just gone for the straddle and TP of 14.

This is not ideal if losses occur, as they must, with my SL of 25 a few bad days would cancel out any profits.
max
  • #300
  • Nov 10, 2006 9:27am Nov 10, 2006 9:27am
I wanted to know if anyone heard of the 00:00 GMT strategy for GBP/USD, Daily charts? It is very well spelled out.
0 traders viewing now