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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,281
  • Mar 27, 2021 11:44pm Mar 27, 2021 11:44pm
Notice the difference between the numbers in the last 4 weeks ..

Hope i have made some sense with my 2 cents .. if i can be of any more use, let me know.
Attached Images
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  • #1,282
  • Mar 27, 2021 11:59pm Mar 27, 2021 11:59pm
Quoting stringfx
Notice the difference between the numbers in the last 4 weeks .. Hope i have made some sense with my 2 cents .. if i can be of any more use, let me know. {image} {image} {image} {image}
A bit of a newbie here, can you guide me on how interpret these images?
  • #1,283
  • Mar 28, 2021 6:59am Mar 28, 2021 6:59am
Quoting stringfx
Notice the difference between the numbers in the last 4 weeks .. Hope i have made some sense with my 2 cents .. if i can be of any more use, let me know. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Thanks but also for me not clear how to read these numbers.
Will be nice to understand if big boys are adding to their shorts or longs and what is the difference from week/week etc...
Probably all this info is already there but just not able to figure it out
Cheers
  • #1,284
  • Mar 28, 2021 11:35am Mar 28, 2021 11:35am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Thanks but also for me not clear how to read these numbers. Will be nice to understand if big boys are adding to their shorts or longs and what is the difference from week/week etc... Probably all this info is already there but just not able to figure it out Cheers
Hi Merka,

On 2nd march, which is a Tuesday COT reports 222,655 long contracts and 96,667 short contracts. Here in this week the non commercials has reduced 5846 contracts in the long side. (each contract is worth millions of dollars) and on the short side they have increased 6531. although the total number of long contracts are more than short contracts which means they are net long (which also means euro also is bullish in the long run.) but temporarily the non commercials are taking the euro down .
The next week which is 9th march if you notice the total long contracts has been reduced 15K. from 222k to 207K and changes are reflected and short contracts are increased from 96K to 105K. In the 3rd week, from 207K long contracts further reduced to 195K ... so these numbers depicts that the big traders are reducing their bullish positions in euro and increasing their bearish positions but in the 4th week, they did not make a lot of changes in long but the short positions decreased to -3.7K.
so we notice the activity is comparatively less in the 4th week which seems like the consolidation that we are seeing in the market now.
COT analysis is not for short term activity. You cannot trade below 4hours TF when you are trading with COT in mind. The price reflections are visible in the market for some weeks or months. This analysis is to guide you to the right direction of the market.
I hope i have made some sense.
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  • #1,285
  • Mar 28, 2021 2:37pm Mar 28, 2021 2:37pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Hi Merka, On 2nd march, which is a Tuesday COT reports 222,655 long contracts and 96,667 short contracts. Here in this week the non commercials has reduced 5846 contracts in the long side. (each contract is worth millions of dollars) and on the short side they have increased 6531. although the total number of long contracts are more than short contracts which means they are net long (which also means euro also is bullish in the long run.) but temporarily the non commercials are taking the euro down . The next week which is 9th march if you...
Nice and clear
Thanks
  • #1,286
  • Mar 29, 2021 4:48am Mar 29, 2021 4:48am
Eur/usd 1 hr.

3 waves down is complete. now waiting for this 4th wave to complete. presumably a nd b waves are over. now waiting for a push up for c wave and then down again for a 5 wave decline for the 5th and final wave before a correction. here is a chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #1,287
  • Mar 29, 2021 5:11am Mar 29, 2021 5:11am
Quoting stringfx
Eur/usd 1 hr. 3 waves down is complete. now waiting for this 4th wave to complete. presumably a nd b waves are over. now waiting for a push up for c wave and then down again for a 5 wave decline for the 5th and final wave before a correction. here is a chart. {image}
Hope you are right for the sake of bottom fishes. However, I suspect 5th wave already begun..
  • #1,288
  • Mar 29, 2021 6:36am Mar 29, 2021 6:36am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} Hope you are right for the sake of bottom fishes. However, I suspect 5th wave already begun..
Nasdaq and S&P are still going up .. which means dollar index will g o down for a bit to finish of wave c in eur/usd. I am not totally confident but on one hour EU has a couple of bottoms .. so let's see . i will still wait for wave c to sell on top. Good Luck !!!!
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  • #1,289
  • Mar 29, 2021 7:12am Mar 29, 2021 7:12am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} Hope you are right for the sake of bottom fishes. However, I suspect 5th wave already begun..
Can you please post a chart with your assumption?
Thanks
  • #1,290
  • Mar 29, 2021 7:25am Mar 29, 2021 7:25am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Can you please post a chart with your assumption? Thanks
I suspect the abc 4th is done. After the highs, those little squiggles can be anything..a bigger B as what stringfx is labelling. For me, it is not conclusive. Until it breaks,above 1.1805, I dun see anything bullish in the p.a...just my tots. Thus I suspect biggies has sneakily started 5. A double bottom is so obvious that I doubt biggies do not see it and may be exactly what they want retails to see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,291
  • Mar 29, 2021 7:30am Mar 29, 2021 7:30am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Can you please post a chart with your assumption? Thanks
this is the chart blurbear is thinking i assume.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,292
  • Mar 29, 2021 7:31am Mar 29, 2021 7:31am
oooops ... too late
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  • #1,293
  • Mar 29, 2021 9:58am Mar 29, 2021 9:58am
Beware if Low is taken out decisively.
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  • #1,294
  • Mar 29, 2021 10:04am Mar 29, 2021 10:04am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} this is the chart blurbear is thinking i assume. {image}
Hi stringfx, interesting to see your updated chart for EU.
i'm thinking this correction to the new low would be finished soon, as EU perhaps will fly again to 1.2 soon.
nothing for sure as this pair sometimes can be tricky to us.
  • #1,295
  • Mar 29, 2021 10:11am Mar 29, 2021 10:11am
Thanks guys
As a general matter still confused if on EURUSD daily we are in the ABC correction after 12345 bullish move or still in wave4 after 123 bulllish move.
Can get my head around of which one is correct.
Sorry for these noobs questions
  • #1,296
  • Mar 29, 2021 10:35am Mar 29, 2021 10:35am
Quoting Merka
Thanks guys As a general matter still confused if on EURUSD daily we are in the ABC correction after 12345 bullish move or still in wave4 after 123 bulllish move. Can get my head around of which one is correct. Sorry for these noobs questions
To be frank, I dun let it bother me. Seems to be so many ways to count it. Even can count as corrective waves. In modern day mkt, impulse waves very often only 3 waves while corrective waves can be 5 fives. Waves can extend , corrections can take on more complex forms.

Many count daily as 1,2,3 now doing 4 with 5 to go higher than 1.23xx . However, IMO, the weekly divergence suggests that it is,already 1,2,3,4,5 as divergence usually occurs in 5...now is retracing the move from 1.06-1.23. Many say limited to 38,2 ret. my tot is I am not so sure. If 2018-2020 can retrace previous impulse so deep , why this current retracement cannot?
  • #1,297
  • Mar 29, 2021 10:47am Mar 29, 2021 10:47am
Quoting hans91
{quote} Hi stringfx, interesting to see your updated chart for EU. i'm thinking this correction to the new low would be finished soon, as EU perhaps will fly again to 1.2 soon. nothing for sure as this pair sometimes can be tricky to us.
Hi Hans and Merka,

when we start digging into smaller time frame in elliott wave, we sometimes tend to forget the big picture as you see so many charts, people will get confused. I used to do only daily charts and sometimes 4h swings but some of you do trade the smaller timeframes and i post these charts for them. smaller timeframes have a lot of noise and wave structures differ to suit the higher timeframes. Most of the times wave 3 and wave 5 gets extended, so fibonacci ratios also will get extended like normal wave 3 ending in 161.8 will end at 261.8 but short term swings will target small take profits, so it will get hit but you cannot buy for 4th wave as that will kill you. I hope i am making sense as usual.

Anyway i am giving you guys a daily chart again, so that you remember the bigger picture..
As mentioned in this chart, this c wave can end at 38.2 retracement at 1.1694 ( drawn the fib other way pic shows 61.8)
or the 4th wave target of a lesser degree at 1.1601
it may also go to 50% at 1.1492 (but structure suggests that it will end at max 1.1601).

Once we finish the C wave .. then that will end the A leg of the correction. after which we should get a B leg up to somewhere around 1.2xxxx ( i will confirm that approximation once the c wave finishes.) .

after the B wave we will get one more C wave down and then euro correction will be over and we can see a 5 wave rise. by that time 4-5 months would have passed.
Hope this is clear. Ask away if still not clear.

Oh , and merka, there are no noob questions in this thread. we are here to learn and understand and of course make money !!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.png Size: 61 KB
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  • #1,298
  • Mar 29, 2021 10:51am Mar 29, 2021 10:51am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Hi Hans and Merka, when we start digging into smaller time frame in elliott wave, we sometimes tend to forget the big picture as you see so many charts, people will get confused. I used to do only daily charts and sometimes 4h swings but some of you do trade the smaller timeframes and i post these charts for them. smaller timeframes have a lot of noise and wave structures differ to suit the higher timeframes. Most of the times wave 3 and wave 5 gets extended, so fibonacci ratios also will get extended like normal wave 3 ending in 161.8 will...

you are good at explaining. Thanks.
  • #1,299
  • Mar 29, 2021 10:53am Mar 29, 2021 10:53am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} you are good at explaining. Thanks.
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  • #1,300
  • Mar 29, 2021 11:05am Mar 29, 2021 11:05am
Here is my big picture...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bp.png Size: 46 KB
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