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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #21
  • Mar 27, 2021 2:53pm Mar 27, 2021 2:53pm
Onlineaddict, Gotcha that's always been my issue too.
  • #22
  • Mar 27, 2021 2:55pm Mar 27, 2021 2:55pm
Quoting ryuryu
I'm just curious how in 2021 people still believe in manual trading.
Do you have long term results with a robot? Actual proof of profit(myfxbook, fxblue, etc)?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #23
  • Mar 27, 2021 3:00pm Mar 27, 2021 3:00pm
Hey Ryuryu, what works for you is ok with me. I trade the way I do because I like it and I'm good at it.

When I trade I trust myself. I don't want to trust an EA, or signal service or use a trading room or someone else's system.
  • #24
  • Mar 27, 2021 3:03pm Mar 27, 2021 3:03pm
I know a fair amount of successful traders, fx, futures, stocks, options not one that I know of uses ea's.
  • #25
  • Mar 27, 2021 3:16pm Mar 27, 2021 3:16pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Just had to come out of the woodwork and say ... I agree with you Steve
Steady old son, go see matron!
  • #26
  • Mar 27, 2021 8:59pm Mar 27, 2021 8:59pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} If you trade with EA, then 1. You don't need to understand of your psyche 2. MM already built-in 3. PA, TA, structure etc are already here 4. 5. You can execute 1m or less. I'm just curious how in 2021 people still believe in manual trading.
Now is MARCH 2021 not MARCH 1990, still using EA???? goodness

welcome to - Algo Wizard
  • #27
  • Mar 27, 2021 10:25pm Mar 27, 2021 10:25pm
Traders that use EA"s have got it exactly backwards----Its price action that dictates the formation ( and ultimate price direction ) of the EA not the EA itself that dictates price. The EA is therefore meaningless--EB
  • #28
  • Mar 28, 2021 2:34am Mar 28, 2021 2:34am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} If you trade with EA, then 1. You don't need to understand of your psyche 2. MM already built-in 3. PA, TA, structure etc are already here 4. 5. You can execute 1m or less. I'm just curious how in 2021 people still believe in manual trading.
Hi ryuryu

If building and running EA's was as good as the test results we always get, we would all be rich. I am one of those pissed off Algo traders that spend years building dozens of good EA's for very average returns. That's about 12,000 hours of effort for not great returns. The issue is of course the EA's ability not to be able to adapt to changing market conditions, therefore removing good profits before the plug is pulled.
I have worked with many EA traders, some professional. Unfortunately only a couple I know can make a living of their Algo's, the ones that do actually run big portfolio's of EA's and spend 24/7 testing via a room room of PC's.
Honestly, I have still never seen good high long term profits from the coding boys (I was one - but no longer).

I am hoping you can show me some great results one day

Myself - my testing days are done. I just trade now for around a three hour block around the London / New York change -over and make a wage. That's just scalping the M1 trading the order book where volume and exhaustion meet.
So I am left with 21 hours to live a life without those bloody testing PC's buzzing away or night and waking me up.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #29
  • Mar 28, 2021 3:11am Mar 28, 2021 3:11am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} If you trade with EA, then 1. You don't need to understand of your psyche 2. MM already built-in 3. PA, TA, structure etc are already here 4. 5. You can execute 1m or less. I'm just curious how in 2021 people still believe in manual trading.

you can have a profitable EA an fail because of your psych!
  • #30
  • Mar 28, 2021 4:27am Mar 28, 2021 4:27am
Creating a working trading strategy takes huge ammount of work,years and money, infrastructure,connections,investments and living solitude long times which can break relationships. Mindset of 1000% commitment and motivation, which is not becoming rich. Passion.
Too many components what most of us cant handle. There are so many microtasks and things whats going on behind scenes which helps focus development side.

Its much more easier learn trading manually. Relatively. Its not just know how to program something need to know huge ammount of stuff, which is usually useless in normal life. I mean you need to be one of best programmer (fast development cycle,clean code, good tools), data scientist, thinking out of box, innovator) oddball, doing things opposite what others do in life and science and trading. Oddball does'nt mean wearing red shoes and sunglasses.

Using Metaquotes tools likea mt4 or mt5 change are pretty low. Like a shoveling huge load of horse shit with tea spoon in short period.

and when you have a working strategy, dont belive doors are wide open, and bankers will buy it and screaming to get it.
It depends many things and need connections and ass licking sales people. and when prospect start testing your strategy, it can take years and often you cant have many prospect same time, because they smell it from your clothes when you are in meeting room with them. So test periods can be longer than most of here use for development.

Before you have a single dime in your pocket from strategy you have spent so much money, you could live nice cozy place enjoying manhattan coctail rest of life.

So keep trying but manual trading could be shorter journey.
  • #31
  • Mar 28, 2021 6:18am Mar 28, 2021 6:18am
you contradict yourself fractals --- smaller reflect the bigger, leaves reflect the tree. so if you keep an eye on the tree and trade the leaf -- you will have an edge in day trading, provide all other variables are in play 1R multiples, MM, SL and EA s for alert system, you cannot day trade manually.
  • #32
  • Mar 28, 2021 6:43am Mar 28, 2021 6:43am
Quoting remonpilip
...The only way the market can exist is if half the money is lost because only half the money can be gained. This is a zero sum game. If I make a million dollars, the market requires a million dollars in losses to pay me...
No !

Fx it does not exist because of traders, speculators, or even for profit, it exists only for the purpose of currency exchange.

If my country decides to buy 100 million of some currency because it needs it as a reserve, to repay debt, public investments ... then it will not look at the exchange rate and will only make a purchase-exchange.

Also large companies when they need other currencies they take them without looking at the exchange rate or the profit or loss on differences.

The tourism industry is also a big player, everyone needs the host currency. etc.

For the commodity market, things are even easier to understand.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You are right that traders / speculators contribute to the process going smoothly by providing liquidity.
  • #33
  • Mar 28, 2021 7:00am Mar 28, 2021 7:00am
I think you can make good money if you're a swing trader
But I don't see why you couldn't do the same as a day trader. I mean, in the end, if you follow the trend and do a multi time frame analysis, for example, following the 4H trend and find your setups and execute it on the 1H timeframe, you can be profitable too and I don't see why it wouldn't apply to the 15 min and 5 min time frames as well. You follow the trend no matter the trend timeframe you're following even though the daily trend could be different than the 1H or or the 15min as long as you're following the trend that is superior to your trigger timeframe. Wouldn't you agree?


Guys, what do you forecast for the EURUSD pair on the monthly chart? Going up or going down?

I've made a short analysis and I'd like to run it by you to see if you agree or not

Here it is :

I see that the EURUSD retested the 1.22 zone and failed.
I see a Doji on February 1st
I can see that stochastic / RSI are in the overbought territory and it's heading down
Besides the price is below the 200 MA

My take is that it's heading down, possibly, 1.10 to 1.05

Do you agree or disagree? Why?
  • #34
  • Mar 28, 2021 7:57am Mar 28, 2021 7:57am
continue ...

the notion of “profit / loss” exists only among a portion of the participants, and these are larger or smaller speculators and only they view the market as a “zero-sum game”.

all others are only participants in the exchange currencies for various purposes and they do not have a "P / L".
  • #35
  • Mar 28, 2021 9:25am Mar 28, 2021 9:25am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Honestly, I have still never seen good high long term profits from the coding boys (I was one - but no longer). I am hoping you can show me some great results one day
I use only EAs. have running more than 100 EAs now..

"high long term profits", "great results"... and here is the main issue. People think they can earn money with FX for a living. Very naive idea. With a small capital, you need big constant profits to pay bills. "Big" and "constant" profits are not possible.

Too high expectations of profits. Normal and achievable profits is 20-40% yearly. And that can be done easily with EAs.. Then use compounding.

View forex as investing and not "trading for living"... All "gurus" here in FF cant show consistent results with manual trading. Just cheap talking.

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See here 1 my EA runing 16 months live results. It achieved #15 in Darwinex ratings and allocated 25x more capital than on account. So it with ~20% yearly profits will make 100% yearly profits because of allocated investments.

You need to have about 30k money and then you can trade in fx with 3000 usd. Split that in 30 parts and run 30 EAs with various strategies/setups targeting no more than 50-60% yearly (from optimizations 10 years history, backtests). Then on real trading will get 2x fewer profits and 2x bigger drawdowns. So you get ~20-30% yearly profits with about 10-20% drawdown.
  • #36
  • Mar 28, 2021 5:23pm Mar 28, 2021 5:23pm
Well you dont need EA's, the eye has all the details needed to trade the way trading should be.
No complications just pure simplicity
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  • #37
  • Mar 28, 2021 7:43pm Mar 28, 2021 7:43pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} I use only EAs. have running more than 100 EAs now.. "high long term profits", "great results"... and here is the main issue. People think they can earn money with FX for a living. Very naive idea. With a small capital, you need big constant profits to pay bills. "Big" and "constant" profits are not possible. Too high expectations of profits. Normal and achievable profits is 20-40% yearly. And that can be done easily with EAs...
Wow joyny, 100 EA's at a time? Having run a few EA's I can only begin to imagine how much work that must be. Your results speak for themselves, 9 profitable months in 2020, one run of 3 months profitable and one of 4 months profitable in a row in that year. I'm thinking only people who have made consistent long term profits in forex can appreciate how difficult that is to accomplish.

The benchmark for long term total return is the S&P 500 at about 10% average per year over the past 40 years. If someone can return 20% per year with small drawdowns on an investment uncorrelated to the stock market, they are beating 95% or more of the professional money managers in the world. As far as "making a living" off that sort of return, it really depends on how much cash you have to work with and what you consider "a living". A consistent 20% return on $200,000 would be $40,000 per year. It may not be the sort of living dreams are made of, but it greatly beats what most of us can generate in any other investment. I'd just warn anyone who wants to try this to not underestimate how difficult it really is. - G
  • #38
  • Mar 28, 2021 10:46pm Mar 28, 2021 10:46pm
you don't need 100 EA' you'll go insane with alerts screaming every second, to get in the trade . you cannot be at the right moment for the ideal set up manually .
one EA can be updated over and over again .till it incorporates 3-4 TA' indis and at least 2 TF's, for all weather , all terrain EA'
  • #39
  • Edited 11:51pm Mar 28, 2021 10:58pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} I use only EAs. have running more than 100 EAs now.. "high long term profits", "great results"... and here is the main issue. People think they can earn money with FX for a living. Very naive idea. With a small capital, you need big constant profits to pay bills. "Big" and "constant" profits are not possible. Too high expectations of profits. Normal and achievable profits is 20-40% yearly. And that can be done easily with EAs.. Then use compounding. View forex as investing and not "trading for living"... All "gurus" here in FF cant show...
Hi Joyny

I was having a look at your stats from Darwin’s and your results looks great. If you don’t mind, I will follow your progress.

I take it was from one EA you have running, not the other 99 EA’s you have on live charts.
To be honest, you would have to be crazy to run so many EA’s on a live market, if your broker sees you have more than 250 open positions on their platform, they consider that abuse of their systems.
They will close your accounts.
I had 14 EA’s running with over 200 open positions on 16 pairs and my broker tapped me on my shoulder to say “we are watching”.

Can I say I have witnessed the operations of a Algo only prop firm in Australia where they have a team of full time coders managing their systems 24/7.
They only trade 65 EA’s - and none are fully automated. They run them for short periods when markets are suitable for their strategy’s.
It seems only amateur’s run Algo’s fully automated for long periods.
Therefore you must have a gem.

On manual trading, you can trade forex for a living but you need a minimum of $80K (preferably $150) in your brokers account. I have three accounts but only one is funded at present due to current world events. Therefore I am attempting to trade of about $80K account which to be honest only provides a basic wage for me until I return more funds to my brokers accounts. I have chosen to put the other funds into the stock markets at present which are providing me higher rewards. So I earn a wage out of stocks and forex, plus other business ventures.

You are right about the gurus here on FF not being profitable as they claim. A well known thread on FF where some traders shows profits of 100k plus a night are of course demo traders living in fantasy world. The truth is that thread due to its hits has probably earned the owners of FF over $50k in advertising revenue.
Its all about Red badges creating advertising revenue for you know who - let’s not worry about making money here for ourselves lol.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #40
  • Mar 29, 2021 12:55am Mar 29, 2021 12:55am
Quoting joyny
{quote} I use only EAs....
Hope you can get lot of investors in darwinex, many just watch profits and not DD, or the DD's are diffrent than trading metrics.

Are there about 160 trades ?, so too early comment nothing about performance and quality.
Good start.
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