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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,221
  • Mar 17, 2021 2:26pm Mar 17, 2021 2:26pm
although i have put an alternate count, we need more confirmation to see if the count is activated. so far dxy has not broken any key levels other than put a large bearish candle in the last 4 hours. lets see the daily close and monitor this candle to see if dxy will come a lot more down.
Stay on the side-lines for the time being to get confirmation of the trend. Good luck !
STING
  • #1,222
  • Edited 1:56am Mar 18, 2021 1:38am | Edited 1:56am
Keep your longs folks. I believe EURUSD is currently on fifth wave of 3.
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,223
  • Mar 18, 2021 12:27pm Mar 18, 2021 12:27pm
My assumption of this pattern is more like a leading diagonal on wave 1. We seem to have 3 wave completions. I think if you check my chart and count, you would understand what i am trying to say. We should finish off the last wave and then push up for a minor wave 2 and then down for a wave 3. The trading for the next weeks is not going to be easy. It would be better to keep watching if this turns with this pattern and ride the wave 3 . This pattern will take a lot of patience and of course "money". Good luck. comments welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy 4.png Size: 37 KB
STING
  • #1,224
  • Mar 18, 2021 12:29pm Mar 18, 2021 12:29pm
Quoting stringfx
My assumption of this pattern is more like a leading diagonal on wave 1. We seem to have 3 wave completions. I think if you check my chart and count, you would understand what i am trying to say. We should finish off the last wave and then push up for a minor wave 2 and then down for a wave 3. The trading for the next weeks is not going to be easy. It would be better to keep watching if this turns with this pattern and ride the wave 3 . This pattern will take a lot of patience and of course "money". Good luck. comments welcome. {image}
its ic market?
  • #1,225
  • Mar 18, 2021 12:56pm Mar 18, 2021 12:56pm
Quoting corongumet
{quote} its ic market?
If you are inquiring about my broker. I have 5 accounts . this chart is from XM . Ic market is also my broker.
STING
  • #1,226
  • Mar 19, 2021 3:20am Mar 19, 2021 3:20am
so far the 1st wave being a leading diagonal seems to be working . dxy needs to complete e wave to finish off wave 1. E waves normally do not necessarily touch the trendline of the diagonal, it may retrace earlier, so i have another trendline from 3rd march which might be the turning point. (not carved in stone). check the chart..
Once we reach 50% to 61.8% retrace to 2nd wave, we will start selling for the third wave .. these are all probabilities so don't make rash decisions .. we need confirmations to proceed further. here is my probability chart ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy40.png Size: 56 KB
STING
  • #1,227
  • Mar 19, 2021 4:54am Mar 19, 2021 4:54am
Quoting stringfx
so far the 1st wave being a leading diagonal seems to be working . dxy needs to complete e wave to finish off wave 1. E waves normally do not necessarily touch the trendline of the diagonal, it may retrace earlier, so i have another trendline from 3rd march which might be the turning point. (not carved in stone). check the chart.. Once we reach 50% to 61.8% retrace to 2nd wave, we will start selling for the third wave .. these are all probabilities so don't make rash decisions .. we need confirmations to proceed further. here is my probability...
I am watching this as an alternate...a leading diagonal off the lows...thus I am still looking for 1.16-1.17 Eur.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,228
  • Mar 19, 2021 5:04am Mar 19, 2021 5:04am
I am dreaming of this sequence. Use harmonic abcd to est. tp..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,229
  • Mar 19, 2021 8:13am Mar 19, 2021 8:13am
Based on weekly, bull or bear?? Next few weeks n months , we will know. Ignoring intraday and daily swings, based on past divergence and what follows, only question is how deep will be the retracement. 38.2? , 50? 61.8? Or even 88.6??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,230
  • Mar 19, 2021 11:40am Mar 19, 2021 11:40am
Quoting stringfx
so far the 1st wave being a leading diagonal seems to be working . dxy needs to complete e wave to finish off wave 1. E waves normally do not necessarily touch the trendline of the diagonal, it may retrace earlier, so i have another trendline from 3rd march which might be the turning point. (not carved in stone). check the chart.. Once we reach 50% to 61.8% retrace to 2nd wave, we will start selling for the third wave .. these are all probabilities so don't make rash decisions .. we need confirmations to proceed further. here is my probability...
so the leading diagonal theory went into flames. we didn't get a proper e wave, so here is my 2nd assumption on a bearish scale on dxy.
The 2nd wave could be a WXY correction. If this move breaks the high, this count is invalidated. Since i am leaning towards bearish DXY, i am hoping this complex correction will still hold as a 2nd wave and hopefully come down in the 3rd wave by start of next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy5.png Size: 26 KB
STING
  • #1,231
  • Mar 20, 2021 7:40am Mar 20, 2021 7:40am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} so the leading diagonal theory went into flames. we didn't get a proper e wave, so here is my 2nd assumption on a bearish scale on dxy. The 2nd wave could be a WXY correction. If this move breaks the high, this count is invalidated. Since i am leaning towards bearish DXY, i am hoping this complex correction will still hold as a 2nd wave and hopefully come down in the 3rd wave by start of next week. {image}
when yields are rising, and if it continues to rise, dxy should also continue to rise.
  • #1,232
  • Mar 20, 2021 7:59am Mar 20, 2021 7:59am
Quoting Greenspanke
Keep your longs folks. I believe EURUSD is currently on fifth wave of 3.
I guess your view is inline with this analysis https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...3&d=1616242891
It's facinating how different people have different views on the same chart.
Cheers
  • #1,233
  • Mar 20, 2021 9:37am Mar 20, 2021 9:37am
Many counting as impulsive waves higher. But if looking out to weekly or monthly, it could also easily be corrective waves. A triangle X wave in progression?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,234
  • Mar 21, 2021 1:00am Mar 21, 2021 1:00am
Quoting pips4life
... The magenta rectangle would be around the week of April 25. ...
An updated USDX-JUN21,Daily chart. A new small blue Pitchfork MedianLine also happens to cross the previous intersection of several lines in the pink box in ~33 trading days, which is Wed May 5. (NFP is Friday May 7 which is close enough). When I previous said the week of April 25, I appear to have not calculated the right number of weekend days which pushes the date farther out to the right, and is now ~Wed May 5. I don't expect that date to change much, since I think I did the calendar math correctly this time.

If price is going to fall to the pink box -- and I'm not saying it will; I'm just noting a potential target -- then it's going to have to start moving down pretty soon. If the blue PF continues to hold price (as the UML just did on Friday), then there's a reasonable chance to get to the target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 03.20.2021-23.41.png Size: 135 KB

Closeup of recent bars:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,235
  • Mar 21, 2021 11:55am Mar 21, 2021 11:55am
Quoting pips4life
{quote} An updated USDX-JUN21,Daily chart. A new small blue Pitchfork MedianLine also happens to cross the previous intersection of several lines in the pink box in ~33 trading days, which is Wed May 5. (NFP is Friday May 7 which is close enough). When I previous said the week of April 25, I appear to have not calculated the right number of weekend days which pushes the date farther out to the right, and is now ~Wed May 5. I don't expect that date to change much, since I think I did the calendar math correctly this time. If price is going to fall...
Great chart and a different perspective with similar target. My 5th wave target is between 88.50 & 89.00. Thanks for posting.
STING
  • #1,236
  • Mar 21, 2021 12:09pm Mar 21, 2021 12:09pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Great chart and a different perspective with similar target. My 5th wave target is between 88.50 & 89.00. Thanks for posting.
could you charting DXY TF Daily or weekly?, i need some insight. if you dont mind.
  • #1,237
  • Edited 11:11pm Mar 21, 2021 10:58pm | Edited 11:11pm
I am very confused with the COT report for the last week. The Non-commercial data points completely towards a long dollar in the weeks ahead. At the moment we really cannot predict accurately as to where will the dollar turn. (no mans land). If Dollar has completed it's journey south with a 5th wave already done, then this move up is a correction for wave 2 else it has not completed the fifth wave and we are still on the final 4th wave and maybe has started it's journey south towards 5th wave.
According to COT reports, the non commercials has decreased their longs on major currencies massively and has increased short contracts. In dollar the long contracts has been increased and short contracts have been decreased massively . This only suggests that the smart money is heavily long on dollar. There are lot of gaps in the open today on all majors especially yen crosses.
Anyway lets wait and see where this will go .
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx cot report.xlsx   12 KB | 175 downloads
STING
  • #1,238
  • Mar 21, 2021 11:12pm Mar 21, 2021 11:12pm
Quoting stringfx
I am very confused with the COT report for the last week. The Non-commercial data points completely towards a long dollar in the weeks ahead. At the moment we really cannot predict accurately as to where will the dollar turn. (no mans land). If Dollar has completed it's journey south with a 5th wave already done, then this move up is a correction for wave 2 else it has not completed the fifth wave and we are still on the final 4th wave and maybe has started it's journey south towards 5th wave. According to COT reports, the non commercials has decreased...

You are not the only one I think. I am as well as waves were never conclusive to me enough though I ise it as a guide. I am cautiously short euros still as I believe the speculative world is nett short dollars after last years decline. If yields sustain its upward trajectory and ecb continues to talk euro down..then I think risk is to the upside for dollars this year as a short squeeze kicks in. Too many have been sold the idea of a collapsing dollar until most wave counts are pursuing a bearish count for usd and bullish count for euros.
  • #1,239
  • Mar 22, 2021 1:06pm Mar 22, 2021 1:06pm
Quoting pips4life
... An updated Closeup of recent bars:
USDX-JUN21,H1 following. Short at just above the blue UML. Approx. +40.0p. However, this is just a demo trade. I took a nicely profitable long on EURUSD which is +65.0 and still long. Nice convergence of two charts, where the TA of the USDX gave me added confirmation for the EURUSD long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 03.22.2021-11.54.png Size: 58 KB
  • #1,240
  • Mar 22, 2021 1:11pm Mar 22, 2021 1:11pm
Quoting stringfx
I am very confused with the COT report for the last week. The Non-commercial data points completely towards a long dollar in the weeks ahead. At the moment we really cannot predict accurately as to where will the dollar turn. (no mans land). If Dollar has completed it's journey south with a 5th wave already done, then this move up is a correction for wave 2 else it has not completed the fifth wave and we are still on the final 4th wave and maybe has started it's journey south towards 5th wave. According to COT reports, the non commercials has decreased...
Regarding COT, I don't make a lot of use of it (yet), but to do so, I need to see any weekly COT changes in context of the chart I'm looking at. To that end, this is a nice resource I found:

https://www.barchart.com/futures/com...al-charts/DX*0

More instruments here: https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders
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