Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

The big boss is engulfing last month shooting star although this can only be confirmed if it closes same at the end of the month.
The boss is in a downward correction(immediate trend) but presently inside the Strat shadow.
The worker has been making lower lows and lower highs since the last confirmed swing high of 25th of last month. Its in diadem with the boss primary trend and below the Strat shadow and approaching the 200 ema.
Looking at the chart, i will want to see a breaking and retest of the SNR, so as to continue the bearish drive.
Already in the trade on another platform.

Thank you

Excellent, Terry - don't forget BRNs - they are VERY IMPORTANT - you had confluence of the BB 200ema with BRN 1.4800 to give you added confidence to hold on to your trade.

Now you can brag you once got out at the bottom!

So, study where PRICE will go relative to BRN for your next bumper trade.

All PASR traders:

Lock your doors, send your wife on a vacation get ready and fasten your seat belts because you are in for the ride of your life! You will thank your lucky stars that you are on this thread with the pizza man.

I thought I was pretty good but compared to the pizza man I am merely a stone age, kinder garden trader!

D1 - LONG TERM, STRESS FREE TRADING

As I posted previously, I am adding back D1 trading to my portfolio in addition to M15/M5.

After being scolded and well and truly bollocked by the pizza man for my stupid AUDUSD trade, (a 0.39% loss), I have gone back to my PASR roots and basics AGAIN so here is EURGBP which is presenting a potential PASR trade:


There are still 3 hours left before this D1 candle closes (2pm PST) so I will be back after the Champions League game to update this in line with what I ""think"" the pizza man is going to disclose.

With US $ weakness across the board following FOMC, GBPUSD looks to have better potential - let's see.

Thanks so much for all your questions, and believe me Strat you are no caveman apart from your love of that footy league you like lol

In fact I am very impressed with the very high level of analysis here on this thread.

To analyze a multi time frame system, with the object to ride a whole trend is amazing. And very very very difficult. But you have Strat and he has a great senior thread leader team. FF is lucky to have you and you are lucky to have each other. Cherish that.

To the markets!

Previously in my first post, the one I asked you guys to analyze, I wanted to highlight naked price action bars and their consensus forming power. I say consensus because that is what the signal has to form, in traders, so the movement occurs.

I spent years just working on that aspect alone. Recognizing GOOD QUALITY price action. Not candles, but bars. Price bar price action is less forgiving in terms of quality and harder to recognize than candles. The price action needs to jump out at you, with the OHLC being exact to the formation. And I mean to the pip.

That is where the 3 years goes. Watching, waiting, comparing for yourself. In so doing YOU own the understanding and YOU know why that particular Double high lower close is THE one you have been looking for. It is an understanding that when you have it, you know it "balls to bone."

That is surly how you want to meet the market. Confident.

Once you have this knowledge, or at least while you are in the process of quantifying the price action bars, you can begin to recognize where the support and resistance is. Again, this is by yourself and for yourself. Not because you got them from Strat or this thread. You need to own the understanding behind the placement of S/R.

Over this time you will see the price swing from high to low, bounce off S/R and form the price action. Consolidation, trend, breakout, high volatility these are the cycles market goes through, as a pro you need to be able to navigate all these waters and to do this you must be able to read the bars.

In my opinion to attempt to trade this FX market without this understanding is a waste of time, at it's best.

Markets trend for only a small percentage of time and to attempt to call a trend is very very hard. But it can be done, as Start has shown (and Terry and others) but I am sure you struggle with consistency. This is probably because market does not consistently trend.

There is a quote from the Matrix movie that I love which goes something like "we cannot see beyond the choices we don't understand." Market is like this too.
It will change it's mind half way through and it will actively try to flush you out. The retraces price does on a trend, for example, is to pick up the orders to keep going. Also, is that trend retrace the end of the move?, the beginning of a period of high volatility?, a total change?, or a time of uncertainty with no clear direction.

Here is where your superior UNDERSTANDING of price action bar formation and UNDERSTANDING of S/R will inform you.

To quote Lao Tse " Sometimes we are helped by what is not, to see what is."

Remember, moving averages are lagging indicators. Weekly and Monthly bars are lagging too really, they are formed and are forming as we analyze.

Strats system and my algorithm are overlays to this basic understanding. My algorithm does not like trends. It is not a trend riding system, so I don't even try.
I see them forming but I just let them run. In this environment, as your multi time frame analysis system triggers signals you should be all hands on deck.

But what about the other times?

It is in these times that the devil makes use of idle hands. This is where people drop down time frames, get frustrated and generally go to the flames as flies, when you may want to be practicing your daily price bar analysis.

The fib chart I posted are of recent examples of good quality price bar formations at established levels of support and resistance.

They had 2 things about them.

A. They are good examples
B. They are at established S/R or swings.

If you don't have the ability to recognize both A and B you cannot move onto C.

C. The fib I placed had the 100% at the top, if going south, or at the bottom if going north.

You then drag the 0% so that the 50% is at the end of the price bar formation.

This then gives you a target of where price is likely to go.

There are so many ways to skin the cat once you have a great set up. Here are some examples.

South bound or short;

Sell stop at the 38 fib TP @ 23 fib
Sell stop at the 38 go break even at 23 and let run to 0 fib
Sell stop at the 38 and TP @ 0 fib
Sell stop at the 38 and wait for Price action signaling a change for the other way
Sell limit at 23 to add to sell from 38
Sell limit at 23 after full TP at 0 fib (Double down)
Sell limit at 38 after full TP at 0 fib (Triple down)
Sell limit at 61 after full TP at 0 fib (Quad down) and so and so and so....

Once you have markets money, get creative!

Visa versa for Northbound or long.

As you can see there is hundreds of winning combinations.

And, it is one pair. Do you really need anymore? seriously.......

All of these entries can be pending orders, with their individual TP and SL

This, my friends, is why I say what is risk?

This is why I say do the time, learn the bars, run your management practice, practice, practice.

3 years, One pair, 20% a year return risking only 1% a trade.

" When you're finished you won't need to dodge bullets" Morpheus from Matrix

I don't trade like this anymore, I have distilled it further and have an algorithm. But without this understanding I would never have developed it. I believe that with this new tool you will all be able to use Strats system with more accuracy, be more consistent and feel the markets.

A very wise man said to me " In trading, you only ever trade yourself"

Good luck
G

Thank you G .

An eye opener. Tried this on past price action and with a few different pairs. WOW.

Quoting from his post : And, it is one pair. Do you really need anymore? seriously.......

I was looking at that exact same trade, but didn't take it because it was before London open.

Terry, well done!

Strat, that's not one of the pairs I watch, but I'll have to keep an eye on it and see if I can "see" what you're doing. I've always struggled with the daily charts.

BG it is very generous of you to share this with us and it is greatly appreciated.
As you state it gives us another very important tool to use in conjunction with Strat's methodology. I have already started to overly this on many of my charts along with the shadow and it seems like it will allow me to be more confident in selecting and managing my trades.



Thank you very much
Regards
Terry

Sorry I didn't get back to you earlier on this one.
I had been following the long term move down on this pair and continued to draw in the WCCs.
The last one began in November 2020 and in January 2021 a nice BUOEB formed at the bottom of the WCC.
By the end of January the bottom of the Boss shadow flattened and started to turn up. The BB also formed a BUOEB so I felt it was time to look at this more closely.
Dropping to the worker it can be seen that price had closed above the WCC and stalled at the worker 200ema with a shooting star. Not a good long entry signal so I waited to see if that signal would follow through and it did.
Price retraced to the worker shadow and formed a doji right at the top of the now crossed shadow.
Price was still within the WCC so I wanted to wait until it had closed back above it, which it did so I entered on the H4 with a stop below its last swing and from there we were off to the races on the worker.

Hi Lou,

Can you put your Principal's hat back on and post some examples please?

Terry,
Same as Lou, please post some examples. Thank you.

Haa haa Great memory Strat.. will do ...

Took a quick look and found this set up and move this week on G/U Daily . Not the very best of moves, but shows the potential. I picked this because it is recent and noted that the gold line indicates the top of the current WCC.

Placed 100 fib at the bottom of the candle and stretched the fib tool so the 50 fib is at the top of the candle. This lets the 0 fib identify the target area. I liked the confluence of the target 0 with the WCC.

Okay here is the EU
Price is consolidating between the shadow and the 200ema
Set the fib on the March 9th bar
Buy limit 61.8 target to 0 and stop below the 100

My entry was triggered but having looked again at the price in relation to the shadow, I have decided to cancel the order. The bottom of the shadow is acting as pretty strong resistance and based on the last several bars, I don't expect another bounce to the shadow.

USDCAD long

Set fib on today's bar with buy stop at 38.2 target 0 fib.

Here is an example on E/G Daily . The pattern used is a Double High Lower Close.
Baba G mentioned trading from chart patterns. Which made me think that there are X number of high probability profitable chart patterns that I should be looking for in order to use Baba G's fib tool. Will be searching for them... but...
Are there any favorite patterns that members use ? Maybe we can test them using the BG Fib.

I am a little confused Lou,
My understanding is that you start the fib from the top of the bar and drag down until the 50 is at the bottom of that bar. I don't see the fib you set as the appropriate one. I have set the fib on the bar from February 26th as shown on the attached chart:

I may be wrong but if so I definitely need to be corrected so I understand.

Thanks Terry, not wrong at all. Just not the same starting point.
I see that you used the shooting star to apply the fib. Whereas I used the tops of the Double High Lower Close pattern which were two and three bars later. I did not calculate from the shooting star as you did, simply because I had used a hanging man candle in my earlier post, and I wanted to post a different bar pattern. Of course in actual day to day trading, the hanging man would have printed first and I most likely would have used it.

I hope we hear from other members regarding favorite chart/bar patterns so we can check them out. I plan to do some research on the best bar/price patterns and then see how the BG Fib applies.