EUR/USD 15m trendline breakout

GU touched my sell zone/weekly pivot then dropped overnight. Stayed up to the start of Asia but didn't feel comfortable taking a trade then going to sleep!

Buying possible down in the green area, bias is for more down to complete the M pattern on 15m/1h

Scalp bought here but set my stop to BE quickly and got stopped out quickly

Yields can shoot up from here so holding off any buying

Trying to stay away from any impulsive decisions!

Ended up selling here because of the CP on dxy and the picture on yields, stop to BE asap

Set stop to BE when it went 4 pips in my favour-will not chase this

Closed for just under 20 pips

I will wait for this zone to be touched around 1.3770-1.3780

Last weeks low, 1h demand, bottom of the channel, ADR low, approaching daily demand, the perfect storm

Below is also a daily TL projecting the daily lows

Not my day at all, took an impatient short here and closed for -5

Both major moves identified but not taken

Frustration invents trades that aren't there

Interesting how small shifts in mindset can totally change results. Today could have been very profitable and finished early but instead i'm banging my head off of the screen

Attached is the TL break with divergence on demand zone which was one of my bread and butter trades a few months ago but I became convinced by a move lower which was purely in my head

In short on the same trade idea, waited for 5m TL to break.

-Note strong deflection off of a TL on dxy, T yields shooting up on 1h demand just below 160bps

Took another short at 1.3889

Lost discipline and took a couple of small losses chasing this high (about 10 pips total)

Stop at BE

Interesting this is a completely straight move up whilst Euro is tanking and Dollar flying

OUT BE

Back in at the same entry point, stop to BE

Out BE

Will see if this turns into a wedge focussed on this area of supply

Looks like I'm gonna have to leave it today- finished with a loss unfortunately. I'll recover it easily but still a bit annoying.

Kind of a classic issue- miss big trades so try and invent ones based on what you want to see

In short on the below setup

Don't truly believe this kick up because of the dollar fundamentals on GU

I'll see if this wedge breaks on either of the supply areas overhead

Short 1.3912

BE again and short again with stop to BE.. high conviction on this dropping!

Finally- 30 pips in the green with my stop at BE

Not doing much today still holding short GU from 1.3922 just waiting for it to unfold

Went 70 pips in profit- FOMC spike took me out BE

Not gonna take any spike fades!

Selling from 1.3975

Fundamental picture is pointing to bullish dollar

Unfortunately was asleep for the short from 1.40

Am back in short GU from 1.3965. I still wanna see 1.3750-1.37

My feeling is this was just a liquidity grab post FOMC. Yields are flying and not much has changed fundamentally imo.

I think this is a good price to reload shorts- we'll see if i'm wrong.

BOE making a bullish push above 1.40-1.4020 would well and truly invalidate this thesis.

Breakout here should be good for a scalp

Sold at 1.3992

I'm on breakeven for the day.

Took 65ish pips at daily pivot. Now i'm looking for daily demand at 1.3700-1.3750. Took this channel break as confirmation, short from 1.3915

Breakeven and re-loaded short. If this breaks then I need to rethink my bias maybe.

Frustrating, but had to follow my rules, take BE, and sell higher up

Totally comfortable about holding short here. Been adding to it a bit and averaging around 1.3945. Got my stop to BE there and we'll see what happens during Tokyo

Note the M pattern, retrace leg between 0.5-0.618

Anyone who's reading this- we started a small Telegram group to discuss trading the GBP/USD pair. DM me if you want to join. It's strictly non-commercial just trading chat.