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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,201
  • Mar 12, 2021 10:28am Mar 12, 2021 10:28am
Quoting stringfx
eur/usd update .. 2nd wave up is going on ... it could be simple zigzag or a complex one or even a triangle ... I've marked the probable turning points on the chart . I will be selling from 50% onwards (small lots) and lots going up as price going up. {image}
Agree
I think EU need to make a new low to compete waveC.
More or less what you have outlined yesterday.
  • #1,202
  • Mar 15, 2021 12:39am Mar 15, 2021 12:39am
Quoting stringfx
eur/usd update .. 2nd wave up is going on ... it could be simple zigzag or a complex one or even a triangle ... I've marked the probable turning points on the chart . I will be selling from 50% onwards (small lots) and lots going up as price going up. {image}
c completed?
  • #1,203
  • Mar 15, 2021 1:45am Mar 15, 2021 1:45am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} c completed?
Yes ... pretty much looks like it .. unless the robbers go for a stop hunt .

Here is my chart for the moment. Let's see how it performs today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR1.png Size: 32 KB
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  • #1,204
  • Mar 15, 2021 3:40am Mar 15, 2021 3:40am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Yes ... pretty much looks like it .. unless the robbers go for a stop hunt . Here is my chart for the moment. Let's see how it performs today {image}
It looks you are buying?
On EU daily I can't see waveC 5 steps completed.
What's your view guys on daily TF about the correction in progress?
I put my view few posts above.
Thanks
  • #1,205
  • Mar 15, 2021 4:10am Mar 15, 2021 4:10am
Quoting Merka
{quote} It looks you are buying? On EU daily I can't see waveC 5 steps completed. What's your view guys on daily TF about the correction in progress? I put my view few posts above. Thanks
I am not buying. That was a long time back sell. i had sells at different positions. if you check my TE you would understand . if you are confused at my TP level, it's on the ADR level.

you are right C wave on daily is ongoing ... check chart.

There is an alternate count where Dxy has not finished the last 5th major wave yet and this correction is just the 4th wave but less chances of that so i will not post that chart as yet unless some confirmations are met . also it will be confusing for newer traders.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #1,206
  • Mar 15, 2021 4:16am Mar 15, 2021 4:16am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} I am not buying. That was a long time back sell. i had sells at different positions. if you check my TE you would understand . if you are confused at my TP level, it's on the ADR level. you are right C wave on daily is ongoing ... check chart. There is an alternate count where Dxy has not finished the last 5th major wave yet and this correction is just the 4th wave but less chances of that so i will not post that chart as yet unless some confirmations are met . also it will be confusing for newer traders. {image}
i think for correction wave using Fibo retracement like wave 2-4, and 1-3-5, use fibonacci expansion. its my suggest, but just follow your rule
  • #1,207
  • Mar 15, 2021 4:46am Mar 15, 2021 4:46am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} i think for correction wave using Fibo retracement like wave 2-4, and 1-3-5, use fibonacci expansion. its my suggest, but just follow your rule
Hi .. If you are referring to my chart, can you be a bit more elaborate... i think i used expansion on an impulse wave. so where is the misunderstanding ?
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  • #1,208
  • Mar 15, 2021 4:53am Mar 15, 2021 4:53am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} I am not buying. That was a long time back sell. i had sells at different positions. if you check my TE you would understand . if you are confused at my TP level, it's on the ADR level. you are right C wave on daily is ongoing ... check chart. There is an alternate count where Dxy has not finished the last 5th major wave yet and this correction is just the 4th wave but less chances of that so i will not post that chart as yet unless some confirmations are met . also it will be confusing for newer traders. {image}
Thanks mate
  • #1,209
  • Edited 11:09am Mar 16, 2021 10:57am | Edited 11:09am
hello folks ..

sorry i couldn't update earlier as i was a bit busy outside today and was not at the terminal. just monitoring through phone .

The analysis seems spot on until now .. we seem to have competed orange wave 2 and 3rd wave is ongoing to a target of 1.1836while the third wave is subdivided into 5 more white waves which is marked on the chart. 1.1860 should seal off the 3rd minor wave in white. there will be minor pull back for the 4th wave and then onto 5th wave which has the same target as the orange 3rd. Here is a Chart .

The average daily range for eur/usd is completed for the day . so please don't sell now... wait for a retracement.
Here is my updated chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu345.png Size: 52 KB
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  • #1,210
  • Mar 16, 2021 11:04am Mar 16, 2021 11:04am
Quoting stringfx
hello folks .. sorry i couldn't update earlier as i was a bit busy outside today and was not at the terminal. just monitoring through phone . The analysis seems spot on until now .. we seem to have competed orange wave 2 and 3rd wave is ongoing to a target of 1.1836while the third wave is subdivided into 5 more white waves which is marked on the chart. 1.1860 should seal off the 3rd minor wave in white. there will be minor pull back for the 4th wave and then onto 5th wave which has the same target as the orange 3rd. Here is a Chart . The average...
It's nice feeling when your analysis is proven to be correct bt the market
  • #1,211
  • Mar 17, 2021 1:00am Mar 17, 2021 1:00am
Hoping to get eur/usd to 1.1860 as 161.8% for minor wave 3 . The average daily range also coincides with the same target , so i am reasonably sure of attaining at least that target if not lower. As usual always put your stop loss and cover it with breakeven once there is a push down. Always remember that hedge funds and banks are drooling at the slightest mistakes that retail traders make. Here is the same chart again. Patience is virtue ... so lets wait it out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu345.png Size: 52 KB
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  • #1,212
  • Mar 17, 2021 1:12am Mar 17, 2021 1:12am
Today is an important day with FOMC meeting minutes, Rate decision and also the FOMC press conference. There will be a lot of volatility at the markets, so trade with care. Hopefully Our TP will be hit before this, so that we can stay out until the market calms down. I am reasonably sure that eur/usd will complete the structure. It could be a wild move down and then complete the C wave down. Lets see what happens. This is my chart for the daily (shown before).
I would advise caution once eur/usd reaches 1.1833 on the sells.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #1,213
  • Mar 17, 2021 6:39am Mar 17, 2021 6:39am
Now need waterfall to confirm iii of III
  • #1,214
  • Mar 17, 2021 6:55am Mar 17, 2021 6:55am
Quoting blurbear
Now need waterfall to confirm iii of III
all i can promise you is a deep fall !!!
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  • #1,215
  • Mar 17, 2021 6:57am Mar 17, 2021 6:57am
I just hope 1.1860 is crossed before FOMC .. i would have made a lot of money !!
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  • #1,216
  • Mar 17, 2021 7:05am Mar 17, 2021 7:05am
Quoting stringfx
I just hope 1.1860 is crossed before FOMC .. i would have made a lot of money !!
I hope so too..

actually ..I see a possibility that it doing a falling wedge for I or A down. Either way I think 1.1860 will be breached.

oops. Sori..if it is a wedge, 1.1860 may not be breached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: F92E2628-A7E0-498A-8849-A71ADA8DBE69.jpeg Size: 205 KB
  • #1,217
  • Mar 17, 2021 10:13am Mar 17, 2021 10:13am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} all i can promise you is a deep fall !!!
That is a good information to know.
  • #1,218
  • Mar 17, 2021 1:57pm Mar 17, 2021 1:57pm
WOW !!! that was some movement . A lot of volatility was expected but i clearly expected the opposite which is what the hedge funds want.
Anyway with this move, the alternate count is activated on dxy and other majors.

Here is a daily chart on dxy with the alternate count. later on we will break this into hourly chart as well.
According to the alternate count, we should see 5 waves down to complete the last 5 minor wave before a strong correction up for a major wave 2.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxyd.png Size: 44 KB
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  • #1,219
  • Mar 17, 2021 2:08pm Mar 17, 2021 2:08pm
Yeah
I was not expecting this strong bullish move on EU.
Probability is new driven but it messed up my waveC count.
I'm confused now
  • #1,220
  • Mar 17, 2021 2:15pm Mar 17, 2021 2:15pm
Quoting Merka
Yeah I was not expecting this strong bullish move on EU. Probability is new driven but it messed up my waveC count. I'm confused now
You cannot hardcode any trade in your mind. This is a technical speculation. In Elliott wave we always have an alternate count . Besides there are a lot of higher powers in play which is beyond me and you. As they say do not stay married to any trades, just keep them as girlfriends and keep moving forward .
Many stops would have triggered to take the price to these extremes (including mine ) but i recovered most of it by buying gold after the FOMC.
No more trades until London session tomorrow . Good luck!
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