EUR/USD 15m trendline breakout

Short here 1.3932

dxy reacted off the 0.5fib from the nov-jan swing high/low

Edit-jumped the gun unfortunately, currently in 5 pips drawdown. EU is in the same wed breakout pattern and just retesting the edge so i think it will come good

Or not... -12, yowch that hurt! My tendency to jump into the first trade I see is alive and well apparently

This isn't big or clever but I reshorted at 1.3942, I saw EU was in trendline retest mode so the correlation should drag it down. Its jumped 5 pips in my favour so i'm locked in BE

Out BE

I need to slow down

This tendency to not think about the wider context about what's happening in the market and just look for the first 'set up' is awful. After thinking a bit I can see the bias is clearly long and can see some great long entries that i've missed. Maybe I ban myself from trading until i've had a coffee

Seeing this wedge/ending diagonal on dxy

Suggests to me either the top of this channel or the supply overhead around 1.40xx will be the high before back down

Shorted 1.3950 round number. Using the wedge on dollar as my guide.

There is a bit of a fakeout on dxy towards the 0.618 fib ext of the uptrend, but GU continuing to move down. Good sign, means the GU sellers are strong and just need to wait for the dollar to pull back.

edit- nice move, not a fakeout. GU is resiliant though, expecting a drop still when this pulls back- not a wedge anymore

edit- tough conditions, trade went into drawdown now back in profit. Still waiting for dollar pullback

edit- M/double top. TBH I could have been better at scalping in both directions this morning

Still holding short but really testing my patience. Running a loss today but had a trade go 20 pips in my favour twice, I probably could have capitalised on that

A bit trapped here. Still expect a dollar pullback here but i'm in 5 pips DD. I think I got too attached to this position because it went a good amount in my favour a couple times.

I can tell the short orders are building up by the way it looks but still unacceptable drawdown today, bad trading. Ultimately still in a loss today (12 pips) but determined things will turn around. I believe being constantly self critical and aware of your weaknesses is the key to success in anything in life. Today again came down to poor patience and discipline.

I know on other days I would have scalped a few quick profits up and down then shorted at the top of the 1h channel but not in a flow state today/in the zone

There is a danger of going up to 1.40 next but I don't see it

Short again after being taken out BE after the last drop and rise.

A very choppy day and unfortunately I was wearing a swing trading hat and not a scalping hat today. FX can really humble you, not an easy game! Looking back, if I really focussed today I could have easily turned a decent profit but it I guess my head wasn't in it.

I see now the 0.382 fibo on dxy caused the dramatic fall, I didn't TP when I had the opp because I thought the channel break was a bearish sign for GU. TPing and re-entering higher is obvious in retrospect.

Stop is at BE as a move up to 1.40 is totally possible

Persisting with this! currently in profit after being taken out BE then re-entering in the same spot

One of the mindset issues I have- if I start the day with a losing trade I end up looking for one big trade to make up for it, and miss the dozen or so good scalps I could have grabbed. One early mistake can really derail things. Trading is more about learning yourself rather than the markets!

Also- as is a very common occurance- If I just left my last trade from yesterday to run to its logical conclusion (IE the top of the channel) then I could have just sat the day out and made 60-70 pips. I need to think more! I need to aspire to something more like shahab8b's thread- logical entry, logical exit, let the market take care of the rest and dont fiddle too much. Maybe some longer term trades alongside scalps once my margin requirements are lowered.

still short, some confluence down here but decided to let it run

edit- took 45 pips, so I guess I dont have to count yesterday as a losing day

Watching this potential accumulation for a long on 1h demand, waiting for confirmation

Demand has triggered orders yesterday so its not strong enough to blindly buy

Edit- screw it, bought at the bottom of the wedge. 1h trendline, 0.618 fibo on dxy, stop to BE asap

Watch out, there is no significant R before 3900.

Yea I jumped the gun. -12, my own dumb fault

Thanks

The green demand on dxy has now taken out a a TL and a supply area so a return here is absolutely perfect for another short on the majors

Last trade 20 pips in my favour then BE after a sudden yield spike

Now long again on 1h demand 1.3882 waiting for a full retrace to the new supply then short again

Hoping dxy returns to green demand area

Bought at S3, last trade stopped out BE, getting a little frustrated but trying to stay cool!

Just took +20, will see if it breaks out and retests but its v mixed

Been aggressively trading this double bottom/wedge setup to make up the daily tally.

20 pips on the first kick up

Re-entered on S3, took 30

Re entered on the retest currently running +20

Looking at the fib levels to TP

Edit- took 35, 85 on that setup alone

Shorted here. Was waiting for dxy to do its 0.618 retrace and hit its demand zone from this morning.

Waited for a TL to break in 1m before entering, GU has supply here and 0.5 fib retrace, can also be seen as a channel retest on 4h

This could fall into overtrading territory now, I've surpassed 100 pips so this is just a bonus... last one!!

Closed before market close for a couple of pips

Crossposted on the Cable only thread. Looking at GU from a SD perspective, also looking to update charts for the other majors.

Will wait and see how Monday morning looks but I still believe this is an area to look for short trades. I posted my fundamental views earlier, add to that the COT is adding USD longs and closing GBP longs. From a supply/demand perspective,

Daily

We're in an area of daily supply (responsible for taking out daily demand on the 5th) shorts can be taken in here since we pulled back on Friday. The daily trendline has held strong so this would need to be taken out in order to get to the next daily demand area around the 1.3700 mark. TP levels could be at 1.3850, 1.3800 etc. On the bulls side we'd need to take out the supply we're in so once 1.4000 is comfortably taken out we can wait for a return to the demand area that is created. From there we can aim for the last swing high. Not shown, but the weekly supply is currently in control after making that evening star formation.

Intraday

We technically breached the supply area on 1h but I thought a short order was doable on the fib level, which I closed out for a tiny profit. On Monday I'll be looking out for a short in the 1h supply area around the 0.618 fib retrace level, dependent on confirmation on the 5m chart. It's also looking like a channel retest which is a bearish sign. I'll still take long scalps in the green demand area especially, dependent on PA, not shown but I like to add LTF trendlines, fibs, 5m SD areas etc to help with this.

DXY is a different story but we broke out of a descending TL/falling wedge and are re-entering the demand area which created the major move. We've just completed a retrace between 0.5 and stopped just shy of 0.618. Unfortunately the TLs are ambiguous so I just put them all on there. Dollar always seems to do that, after breaking a major TL it does a dramatic impulsive retest of it at some point in the day, that's what I was bleating about on Friday but kept mis-timing.. Last thing, pretty important- on the daily it's created a large overextended W formation of which the bearish movement last week was the retrace leg, the next step in this is an impulsive bullish move

Daily Euro

I'm bullish on the dollar until we hear what FOMC say. A lot of inflationary pressures in the US and treasury yields just breached their recent high around 160bps. Stimulus cheques drop this weekend which will add fuel to the fire. The market has already priced in several rate hikes. DXY had a 0.5/0.618 retest of its breakout movement on Friday and is on the edge of the demand zone which created the bullish movement. Euro I expect to reach daily demand 1.1750/1.17, ideally after testing daily supply around 1.2050-1.21. I note the channel retest and overextended M formation, of which we just completed the retrace leg. So I won't be surprised by more bullish movement but ultimately I think we're headed down unless the Fed intervenes more heavily.

Aussie

Clear short trade on the return to the 1h supply area/wedge retest area. Will look out for more shorts next week to the daily demand area

Rates

US10y currently at the edge of daily supply (large pink area). A return to 160bps on the 1h would be interesting for a buy through to make higher highs. But it is FOMC week..