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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,181
  • Mar 10, 2021 2:31am Mar 10, 2021 2:31am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} oops my apologies..it’s eur.
I guess you mean EURUSD and not EUR index.
If it's EURUSD I posted yesterday that wave C need to be completed and expecting further move down on daily chart.
Agree?
  • #1,182
  • Mar 10, 2021 2:32am Mar 10, 2021 2:32am
Quoting Merka
{quote} I guess you mean EURUSD and not EUR index. If it's EURUSD I posted yesterday that wave C need to be completed and expecting further move down on daily chart. Agree?
Yes. Except. At 1.1835, wave c of A of Cdown is completed, now doing series of abc up for B of C up or sideways before final C of C leg down..

or if this is wave III..then wave IV up now before final down.

i am not ruling out this bigger B wave rebound to reach 1.2050-70..anyway let’s see how it pans out. There are alternate counts usually.
  • #1,183
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:22am Mar 10, 2021 9:22am
Like this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,184
  • Mar 10, 2021 5:59pm Mar 10, 2021 5:59pm
Quoting blurbear
Like this? {image}
invalidated.
  • #1,185
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:26pm Mar 10, 2021 9:26pm
morni'n Folks ..

Firstly thanks for all your contribution ...

Now on a daily timeframe on EUR/USD, I believe that we are on the C leg of a correction. we seem to have completed 1st, 2nd and 3rd wave of this C leg, now approaching the 4th wave... most probably it would turn on a 38.2 fib which is very close by (1.1940). It could go to 50% as well rarely (1.1973) but i will be selling majors from 38.2 % itself (small lots to accumulate). Now the first target for this expansion to 38.2 would be 1.1834 and 2nd target at 61.8 would be 1.1769. Chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurdaily.png Size: 38 KB
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  • #1,186
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:34pm Mar 10, 2021 9:34pm
Quoting stringfx
morni'n Folks .. Firstly thanks for all your contribution ... Now on a daily timeframe on EUR/USD, I believe that we are on the C leg of a correction. we seem to have completed 1st, 2nd and 3rd wave of this C leg, now approaching the 4th wave... most probably it would turn on a 38.2 fib which is very close by (1.1940). It could go to 50% as well rarely (1.1973) but i will be selling majors from 38.2 % itself (small lots to accumulate). Now the first target for this expansion to 38.2 would be 1.1834 and 2nd target at 61.8 would be 1.1769....
Me.too..I am staying n building shorts. I take it as an extension ABC-wxy.. now in y leg
  • #1,187
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:42pm Mar 10, 2021 9:42pm
Now breaking this down into an hourly chart, i am pretty convinced that this might go to 50% (1.1973 +) before a reversal. remember we have monetary policy , Rate decision and also ECB press conference today, so the hedge funds will be waiting and drooling for retail money today .

so on 1 hr, we have completed A leg, B leg and we need 5 waves of C leg which is now going on. we could be on 3rd wave now.. so it will need a 4th wave down and a push up for wave 5 to finish this correction, after which we should be getting a very nice move down in a fast and furious manner. Here is a 1 hr chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1hr.png Size: 48 KB
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  • #1,188
  • Mar 10, 2021 9:44pm Mar 10, 2021 9:44pm
Quoting blurbear
{quote} Me.too..I am staying n building shorts. I take it as an extension ABC-wxy.. now in y leg
Good on you !! and thanks for your analysis .
STING
  • #1,189
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:53am Mar 11, 2021 5:53am
Quoting stringfx
Now breaking this down into an hourly chart, i am pretty convinced that this might go to 50% (1.1973 +) before a reversal. remember we have monetary policy , Rate decision and also ECB press conference today, so the hedge funds will be waiting and drooling for retail money today . so on 1 hr, we have completed A leg, B leg and we need 5 waves of C leg which is now going on. we could be on 3rd wave now.. so it will need a 4th wave down and a push up for wave 5 to finish this correction, after which we should be getting a very nice move down...
Very nice analysis
Thanks
  • #1,190
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:03am Mar 11, 2021 7:03am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Very nice analysis Thanks
STING
  • #1,191
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:41am Mar 11, 2021 7:41am
So eur/usd hit the 50% and now turning down... looking good so far ... ecb press conference is going on ... there might be volatilities but direction seems down pretty clear . should go down o 1.1834 at least .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,192
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:53am Mar 11, 2021 7:53am
dollar index 4 hr.

DXY seems to have completed the 4th wave correction with a 50% retrace and seems like a rejection from 50%. This could be the 5th wave before a good correction again. this wave should also have 5 waves . i will try to update whenever possible at end of each wave ... Good luck on the ride down on Majors !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,193
  • Edited 2:44pm Mar 11, 2021 1:03pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting stringfx
morni'n Folks .. Firstly thanks for all your contribution ... Now on a daily timeframe on EUR/USD, I believe that we are on the C leg of a correction. we seem to have completed 1st, 2nd and 3rd wave of this C leg, now approaching the 4th wave... most probably it would turn on a 38.2 fib which is very close by (1.1940). It could go to 50% as well rarely (1.1973) but i will be selling majors from 38.2 % itself (small lots to accumulate). Now the first target for this expansion to 38.2 would be 1.1834 and 2nd target at 61.8 would be 1.1769....
EURUSD H4 chart attached.
I was thinking the same about being on waveC (leg4) but some thing is not right anymore because we have leg4 coming into leg1 territory and this will invalidate the counting.

The daily chart is not mine but this flat 3-3-5 correction make sense and it's more or less coincide with my daily counting
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,194
  • Mar 11, 2021 9:13pm Mar 11, 2021 9:13pm
it has not invalidated yet there is a pip difference between the 1st wave of C and the 4th wave of C.
This was massive manipulation as i had mentioned by the smart money . Stop hunting !!! but i feel we are still in the right direction. just trade small on these first waves and when you get to wave 3 then take a better lot size. Patience is virtue!
STING
  • #1,195
  • Mar 11, 2021 10:04pm Mar 11, 2021 10:04pm
smart money makes the retail traders believe that the correction is over when index came to 50% by taking the price up from 50% ... then lowered it abruptly to 61.8 retracement. They must have made a lot of money in this swings. anyway lets stay steadfast in our analysis and trade this us index up . Sl below low of the swing in us$.
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  • #1,196
  • Mar 12, 2021 12:16am Mar 12, 2021 12:16am
on a 15 mins chart of eur/usd, i was able to carve out a 5 wave decline for wave 1. 5th minor is ongoing to 61.8%
we should get a bounce up for wave 2 today and hopefully a downtrend starting with a nice wave 3. Good luck !!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,197
  • Mar 12, 2021 12:36am Mar 12, 2021 12:36am
ok 61.8 % has hit for the first TP.... now wait for 2nd wave to get over and we can sell for the 3rd wave around 1.1968
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu12.png Size: 34 KB
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  • #1,198
  • Mar 12, 2021 12:41am Mar 12, 2021 12:41am
Don't even think of buying here !!!! the price can just slip down very fast and you will be caught with your pants down. Instead, start building shorts at different fib levels. My 2 cents !

Average daily range down is still about 17 pips more down.
STING
  • #1,199
  • Mar 12, 2021 6:55am Mar 12, 2021 6:55am
I think minor wave 1 is over and we are going up on wave 2. expected price is at 50% of the down move which is marked at 1.1949 . maybe it will go to 61.8 as well at 1.1958. WE did have an extended move down on the 5th wave to complete 1. we should be getting a fast move down once this wave 2 is over but it might not happen today. We could also get a gap down on Monday if we can complete wave 2 today. Here is an updated chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1hr.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #1,200
  • Mar 12, 2021 10:17am Mar 12, 2021 10:17am
eur/usd update ..

2nd wave up is going on ... it could be simple zigzag or a complex one or even a triangle ... I've marked the probable turning points on the chart . I will be selling from 50% onwards (small lots) and lots going up as price going up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU update.png Size: 53 KB
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