The Swamp

fyi

Dollar all bullish from M30 to day.. don't fight the dollar for now.. it may go higher

ec is playing with month levels and very bullish. If the larger tf close below 1066, it may drop some. Need a 4h, and day to start. If not, those month levels may break.

Bitcoin; 51,676 held off 4h closes.

waiting to see if 1707 gets closed below or back to 1724

UC The R at 9190 is why i figured it needed to go back to 9109..9190 retest atm.. Close wise I figure day, week, and month need a close above 9190 and some others. Atm it looks like day has a shot. If not, yesterday;s post is valid still. To me its at R now. The day needs to beat it..

Yesterday I should have touched my ea, cashed out very good profit in Swiss shorts, from 0.9188 high to 0.9140s , I could have refilled again today.. I didn't because it was not ea's TP.. see dame you do, dame you don't...

chf so weak,. I wonder its short covering by those hedge funds..Yields do support those long trades...

good to read...
System Trading for the Rest of US
By Boris Schlossberg
Here is how everyone who develops a system. They get an idea for a trade setup. They write some code or hire someone to do it. They back test it - maybe tweak a few variables until it looks good on paper and then run the system in live market conditions.

The backtest says 50% gains with 20% drawdown (Make up any numbers you like). Real life results however are losses, losses, losses. This happens all the time. Every time. Sometimes it takes a while for losses to kick in, sometimes the losses start right away, but it is astounding how frequently and consistently all trading systems devolve into losses.

This is true of all pro quants as well. Don’t be fooled by DE Shaw’s and Renaissance’s of the world - most quant strategy funds haven’t been able to beat the returns on Treasuries much less the S&P 500 over the past decade.

There are a lot of fancy mathematical explanations for why most trading systems fail, from data snooping to curve fitting to just underestimating the frequent discontinuity jumps in price.

But I think the problem is far more fundamental than that. The development process is all backward and therefore is designed to guarantee failure regardless of whether you are a PhD in physics or just a regular Joe with a MetaTrader account.

Almost everyone starts with a trade idea and tests it. This seems prudent and cautious and responsible and is...100% wrong. Instead of testing your idea in the make believe world of software you need to live trade it in the real brutal world of the market right away. It doesn’t matter if you lose once, twice, one hundred, one thousand times. In fact the more you lose the more valuable you experience will be because the value of any system is not in knowing when to trade it but in knowing when not to. Systems don’t need to be complex. In fact the simpler the better. A basic Moving Average system could be turned into a winner with a right set of rules - but you will never discover those rules unless you are willing to get down and dirty with the market.

The modern world of scientific method, statistical analysis, computational power and sophisticated software has given us the illusion of control and the arrogant belief that all answers lie in data. The truth is that the discovery method is totally and utterly unstructured and unpredictable. You must let the mind roam free to make unexpected connections if you are to have any chance of developing a modest edge in trading.

Part of the reason is that unlike the physical world which has repeatable and highly predictable behavior characteristics which we can forecast with 99.9999% degree of accuracy - landing a spacecraft on the exact spot you want from 135 million miles away in space - trading systems are applied to the psychological world which we know is hardly predictable at all. To extract any useful knowledge you need to run a lot of “experiments” in order to even understand the basic forces that underlie your trade setup.
How many experiments? I really don’t know. In my own case I did about two thousand trades over the past six months before I could even begin to gain confidence that I had a mild edge in my NQ scalp set up. Why so many? Part of the reason is I am a slow learner, but the other part is that a robust system is not about what are the entry, stop and target - which are all answers to the question of how. A robust system is about what kind of entry, what kind of stop, and what kind of target - which are all answers to the question of why where key variations make all the difference between success and failure.

The modern approach to system development - idea, code, backtest and release into the wild is all wrong. You can’t eliminate the human element from the process and that human element is you. To develop a system you need to always proceed from manual to mechanical in order to discern the multiple flaws in your logic which you can then try to codify.

This is a messy process that requires a lot of losing and of course no one wants to lose financially or psychologically but this is the only way to truly learn and discover an edge. Trading on tiny capital bases (my $1000 trade account idea) helps to keep the risk in check.. But more importantly you first need to expect to lose it all if you are to have any chance creating something of value for the long run. It was only after I resolved that I would rather lose the whole account than interfere with stops and targets that I actually started to see some progress.

One of the greatest ironies is that while we believe that systems are an highly robust, fortress-like approach to trading, in reality they are incredibly fragile, subject to the psychological whims of the market and to the personal foibles of their creators

lc eu closed higher..eu 2116 may still be in play. ec and uc closed higher also. euro looks to be the stronger for the next day.. chf the weaker. With a * because uc and ec are playing with big month R.

The eur/gbp closed lower. That gives Gu 4049 a better shot. The gbp looks to be stronger than those others before lc tomorrow. gbp 3943 is a buy as long as 1h closes above 3944.. tp some R 4001 and 4040/49.. I rather sell it on the rises, since i think its going to drop deeper

long GBP 3928

Silver bulls failed to hold day uptrend stop $26.29 at NY close. now day reversed to downtrend...
both gold and silver bearish...

Bitcoin bullish cross board

3/4 scalp levels
EurUsd next to print 1.2081 or 1.2042
UsdChf next to print 0.9211 or 0.9179
EurChf next to print 1.1106 or 1.1067

Eur bearish... continue to sell rally mood..

Chf continues to be very weak , which seen in Usdchf strength and EurChf bullish cross board....UsdChf is testing weekly downtrend stop , while EurChf is testing month down trend stop atm...can bears hold? we will find out UsdChf in two days at NY close

Dollar remain bullish due to high Yields

some 1h closes were below 3943.. Still a little support 3911/17 ish. New R 3980 and still 4000. Larger 4040/49.. As clear as muddy water st. The usd looks to be holding, meaning the U.S.D. crosses may be weaker than lc indicated. Longing the gbp dont look good atm. Shorting it at R may be best to wait for. In case it bounces.

Hi guys,

does anyone know of which broker has US10YR chart?

Many thanks.

I use tradingview.. not sure 'TVC 'has anything to do with a broker

oh i see, i have my FXCM account has not provided for this instrument.

Thanks for your info.