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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,141
  • Mar 3, 2021 7:43am Mar 3, 2021 7:43am
Quoting stringfx
update to my earlier post regarding dxy This is a 1 hr chart and seemingly dxy has completed the minor wave 1 and is in a descend for the second wave. Most probably this would end in 38.2 retrace or even 50% but don't take my word for it as 2nd waves have been seen plenty of times to almost reach 1st wave... so please be careful when you sell majors. I would be selling small from 61.8% , then 50% then 38.2% (twice the lot size) and last 23.6 ( 3 times). Check the chart and leave your comments if possible. {image}
Thanks for this analysis, very good

Do you see dxy going up to the extension level indicated on this wave, 91.85ish?
  • #1,142
  • Mar 3, 2021 8:18am Mar 3, 2021 8:18am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Thanks for this analysis, very good Do you see dxy going up to the extension level indicated on this wave, 91.85ish?
This is my view (most probable) .. please don't bet the farm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy 786.png Size: 40 KB
STING
  • #1,143
  • Mar 3, 2021 8:19am Mar 3, 2021 8:19am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} Mini waves could be extending....watching for ending diagonal...same as Eur....I go with my count.. if wrong, just cut.
Good on you !
STING
  • #1,144
  • Mar 3, 2021 8:57am Mar 3, 2021 8:57am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Good on you !
If retracement Low holds, I suspect B flat completed.
Corrective waves always tricky to trade. Now need strong impulsive up moves..otherwise, robber banks can still rob me.
  • #1,145
  • Mar 4, 2021 2:43am Mar 4, 2021 2:43am
It looks like our corrective ABC on dxy is over and we're onto the next bullish wave. Any thoughts?
  • #1,146
  • Mar 4, 2021 2:45am Mar 4, 2021 2:45am
Quoting mysterio
It looks like our corrective ABC on dxy is over and we're onto the next bullish wave. Any thoughts?
On what time frame?
If you can show a chart will help others understand better what you mean.
Thanks
  • #1,147
  • Edited 4:25am Mar 4, 2021 3:45am | Edited 4:25am
My view of DXY 30 mins to 1 Hr timeframe.

There is a possibility as Mysterio mentioned that correction is over on dxy. in that case, we should be moving up in a faster wave. at the moment there is a rejection at 78.6% of the last A wave. If this wave moves down from here I am expecting a C wave down to 90.52 and then continuation of the uptrend. By that time NFP might be over by tomorrow. So lets wait and see ... The Hedge funds are waiting for us retail traders to make a mistake.. so tread carefully!!!

B waves are notorious in Elliott wave and very unpredictable. it can go above the A wave as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy1122.png Size: 36 KB
STING
  • #1,148
  • Mar 4, 2021 4:13am Mar 4, 2021 4:13am
Quoting stringfx
My view of DXY 30 mins to 1 Hr timeframe. There is a possibility as Mysterio mentioned that correction is over on dxy. in that case, we should be moving up in a faster wave. at the moment there is a rejection at 78.6% of the last A wave. If this wave moves down from here I am expecting a C wave down to 90.52 and then continuation of the uptrend. By that time NFP might be over by tomorrow. So lets wait and see ... The Hedge funds are waiting for us retail traders to make a mistake.. so tread carefully!!! B waves are notorious in Elliott wave and...
Very nice analysis
Thanks
  • #1,149
  • Mar 4, 2021 4:25am Mar 4, 2021 4:25am
Thanks, based on this wedge/ending diagonal It suggests to me we will make a good move down at some point
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #1,150
  • Mar 4, 2021 4:32am Mar 4, 2021 4:32am
Now this thread is getting better with ideas pouring in from many of you . this is an Interactive thread ... so Interact guys!!! ... let me know your ideas as well.
Let's make a lot of money
STING
  • #1,151
  • Mar 4, 2021 4:34am Mar 4, 2021 4:34am
Quoting stringfx
Now this thread is getting better with ideas pouring in from many of you . this is an Interactive thread ... so Interact guys!!! ... let me know your ideas as well. Let's make a lot of money
I'm totally new to elliot wave but have picked up a lot from your posts, please keep up the good work! I was watching out for that last down move on DXY and caught it perfectly.
  • #1,152
  • Mar 4, 2021 7:09am Mar 4, 2021 7:09am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} I'm totally new to elliot wave but have picked up a lot from your posts, please keep up the good work! I was watching out for that last down move on DXY and caught it perfectly.
Thanks for the kind words buddy... I share my 2 cents whenever possible. Glad that you are getting the concept... although a highly subjective topic with so many possibilities and probabilities, we have to keep trying ... i mean, before i post here, i try so many combinations to get the almost perfect count but please don't do anything drastic. put your stoplosses at least on the last swing low or high on the TF that you are trading. I have made so many mistakes in the past with overtrading due to overconfidence and that is exactly what the institutional traders want.. take care and god bless!
STING
  • #1,153
  • Mar 5, 2021 2:14am Mar 5, 2021 2:14am
Hi folks ..

With last night's Powell speech, Dxy surged ahead breaking the high . Now in the current scenario, there can be 2 viable possibilities..
this could be the fifth wave of the 1st major wave as the decline to the 4th wave was almost perfect in which case the 3rd wave of 1st major wave was extended. The first chart will depict this scenario.

2nd probability is that major 1st wave is over it retraced the minimum required for a 2nd wave which is 38.2 and we are on the verge of a 3rd major wave in which we finished the 1st leg. My second chart will depict this scenario. It would be better to wait out the Nfp today to see which of these will take shape by next week.

In both scenario, we need a retrace now .

I prefer the 2nd probability in which we are surging forward for a 3rd major wave in dollar which will take down all majors considerably.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy10.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy20.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #1,154
  • Mar 5, 2021 2:34am Mar 5, 2021 2:34am
looking at the impulsive nature of this wave it surely looks like the start of a 3rd wave. so our strategy should be to buy the dollar on dips. In any case lets dissect this wave and see possible targets ...92.34 seems the 1st stop coz it is a 100% fib expansion. Next stop is 161.8 which is at 93.41 ... so we will wait for nfp for any retrace to buy the dollar. here is another chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy999.png Size: 24 KB
STING
  • #1,155
  • Mar 5, 2021 2:49am Mar 5, 2021 2:49am
Looking at the confluence of fibs between major and minor waves for Dxy, (if you check the chart). I have drawn an expansion for the major wave 3 ending at FE 100 which is at 92.34, while drawing the minor wave expansion from wave 1, i get a confluence only on 361.8 which is the closest to 92.34, so i am assuming that this minor impulsive wave should last until then. My value at 361.8% of the minor wave is 92.36.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy 435.png Size: 37 KB
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  • #1,156
  • Mar 5, 2021 3:37am Mar 5, 2021 3:37am
similar scenario in Eur/usd

Third wave expansion targets are defined in the charts .. 1.1861 is FE 100 . It might probably go more down to 161.8 which is at 1.1705

Chart :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU11.png Size: 24 KB
STING
  • #1,157
  • Mar 5, 2021 4:17am Mar 5, 2021 4:17am
Quoting stringfx
similar scenario in Eur/usd Third wave expansion targets are defined in the charts .. 1.1861 is FE 100 . It might probably go more down to 161.8 which is at 1.1705 Chart : {image}
I like 1.1861.
  • #1,158
  • Mar 5, 2021 11:01pm Mar 5, 2021 11:01pm
This Corrections on gold has taken a lot of my money so far... Hopefully i have this correct count now. Expecting one more X wave to 50% and then a Y wave down to finally complete the correction for a very good move up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gol1232.png Size: 59 KB
STING
  • #1,159
  • Mar 5, 2021 11:11pm Mar 5, 2021 11:11pm
Quoting stringfx
similar scenario in Eur/usd Third wave expansion targets are defined in the charts .. 1.1861 is FE 100 . It might probably go more down to 161.8 which is at 1.1705 Chart : {image}
I think we must check to lower time frame.
  • #1,160
  • Mar 6, 2021 12:48am Mar 6, 2021 12:48am
Quoting stringfx
This Corrections on gold has taken a lot of my money so far... Hopefully i have this correct count now. Expecting one more X wave to 50% and then a Y wave down to finally complete the correction for a very good move up. {image}
Would this ABC corrective wave apply too?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20210306_064751.png Size: 449 KB
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