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Opinions and Experiences with Hedging and Martingale

  • #21
  • Feb 28, 2021 8:16am Feb 28, 2021 8:16am
Quoting bojack34
...It is still all random, but if you can get a good dealer who can release the ball around the same section of the wheel and put the same amount of "force" behind the spin of the wheel and the "flip" of the ball.....they can be fairly accurate with the "section" of the wheel the hit.
Many years ago I used the good old "Commodore 64" to test and analyze a real roulette wheel.

A friend threw the ball, we filmed with a video camera, and then made statistics.

Of course, we then analyzed a croupier in the casino for a long time, studied possible wheel errors, etc.
  • #22
  • Feb 28, 2021 8:17am Feb 28, 2021 8:17am
Oops did I just enter a wrong forum, sure did, y'all continue with roulette thing and I'll find some forex stuff somewhere else.
  • #23
  • Feb 28, 2021 8:29am Feb 28, 2021 8:29am
Quoting jinxee
... I'll find some forex stuff somewhere else.
This is a good idea, and first of all I would recommend the website of "roulettetrader#com", where you can study some forex systems ..
Attached Image
  • #24
  • Feb 28, 2021 9:29am Feb 28, 2021 9:29am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} This is a good idea, and first of all I would recommend the website of "roulettetrader#com", where you can study some forex systems .. {image}
High reward comes with high risk.
Likely also this robot does the same
  • #25
  • Feb 28, 2021 9:50am Feb 28, 2021 9:50am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} This is a good idea, and first of all I would recommend the website of "roulettetrader#com", where you can study some forex systems .. {image}
I wish strategy results charts like this would ONLY show the DD%. They always focus on the profits made. I would much rather look through all the EA"s and strategies strictly by ONLY looking at the DD%.
  • #26
  • Feb 28, 2021 11:35am Feb 28, 2021 11:35am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} This is a good idea, and first of all I would recommend the website of "roulettetrader#com", where you can study some forex systems .. {image}
The problem with that "great" chart is that DD on 259 will wipe all if happened within 0-21 range. And in real life your live testings will start accurate at that moment.
Observer effect
  • #27
  • Feb 28, 2021 11:45am Feb 28, 2021 11:45am
Strategy that wont ever take losses will never work long term. Martingale can work in a limited way where you open it at certain specific times...but you still need to take a loss once in a while. Hedging is a waste of time in my option but that's just me, maybe someone has some use for it.
  • #28
  • Edited 1:13pm Feb 28, 2021 12:03pm | Edited 1:13pm
I have tested my EA with Martingale (2020). The winning rate is 73%. The initial deposit is 10000 USD. Net profit is 18000. The worst thing is max drawdown: 13000 USD. You can blow your account in your first day. You can reduce your drawdown with trading two negative correlated pairs. I want to test from 2000-2020 to see the max drawdown from history. The EA depends on retracement and pullback.
  • #29
  • Feb 28, 2021 12:46pm Feb 28, 2021 12:46pm
Quoting Ihlas
...You can reduce your drawdown with trading two negative correlated pairs.
I also wrote in #Post 9:
"I would be interested in the difference bet: bet black and red separately, increase the bet after a loss, decrease after a win, and bet the difference."

  • #30
  • Feb 28, 2021 1:17pm Feb 28, 2021 1:17pm
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} I also wrote in #Post 9: "I would be interested in the difference bet: bet black and red separately, increase the bet after a loss, decrease after a win, and bet the difference."
Now I started to wonder if we are not trading more-less the same way.

That is actually what I am doing with my strategy.
1. My long position shall increase when the price goes down and decrease when it goes up.
2. Also my short position shall increase when price goes up and decrease when it goes down.
I try to do both 1 and 2 at the same time, so there is sort of continuous hedging.

Example:
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Notice that all of pending orders have different size and different TP length.
  • #31
  • Feb 28, 2021 1:54pm Feb 28, 2021 1:54pm
Quoting marecki
...Now I started to wonder if we are not trading more-less the same way. That is actually what I am doing with my strategy. 1. My long position shall increase when the price goes down and decrease when it goes up. 2. Also my short position shall increase when price goes up and decrease when it goes down. I try to do both 1 and 2 at the same time, so there is sort of continuous hedging. Example: {image} Notice that all of pending orders have different size and different TP length.
Is that always the "Triangle" system? You haven't posted in the thread for a long time.

I only briefly studied Maxim's EA (#Post 7), he has a few interesting ideas, e.g. for the exit.
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His recommendation on how to trade multipairs is also interesting.
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  • #32
  • Feb 28, 2021 2:04pm Feb 28, 2021 2:04pm
In the last few days, I've been experimenting with a martingale tunnel, the thought is here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/thread/5...ingale?page=23
The work of the robot can be seen in the picture.
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  • #33
  • Feb 28, 2021 3:28pm Feb 28, 2021 3:28pm
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} Even if your remark is correct, B-R or R-B always have a 50% chance of appearing in America and Europe, ignoring zero. The difference is actually that the americans pay a little more commission at the casinos.
A European roulette wheel has 37 options 1 to 36 and 1 green the American roulette wheel has 2 green or 38 options the best odds you can get on a roulette wheel is to do a strategy called (James Bond)
  • #34
  • Edited 4:34pm Feb 28, 2021 4:12pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting Ross88
{quote} A European roulette wheel has 37 options 1 to 36 and 1 green the American roulette wheel has 2 green or 38 options the best odds you can get on a roulette wheel is to do a strategy called (James Bond)
Thank you for your comment, but if it was to let me know, in #Post 21 I wrote that I programmed in Basic roulette programs on Commodore 64, and of course I took the zero into account, and that was 40 years ago.
In a casino I was a little earlier ...
  • #35
  • Feb 28, 2021 9:50pm Feb 28, 2021 9:50pm
I tried one-way trading towards a lonely pivot. Two weeks of good results were replaced by a week of big draw. It took away my motivation.
Please excuse the bad English via Google Translate.
  • #36
  • Edited 5:36am Mar 1, 2021 5:22am | Edited 5:36am
The problem I see with this type of strategy is failure to execute correctly on a trend.

What I mean by this is - lets assume whatever your trigger is for a long occurs - what's the best bang for your buck? Inching in using a martingale method, or maxing out on your initial trade?

Martingale assumes price WILL retrace at some point - which let's face it, it happens more often than not......but its that 1 time that it doesn't when your stuck with a minimal gain vs what you would have had had you maxed out your initial trade in the first place.

Yes, you can pyramid while its moving up....however that leads to other problems.

if your first trade had an initial target TP, should the subsequent trades also have the same target? If yes, wouldn't it have made more sense to bet more on the initial trade and avoid the reduced gain and added spread for the subsequent trades?

If your answer is no - your indirectly admitting that you don't have faith that your initial trade will reach the 2nd target price , in which case , does it make sense to even place the 2nd trade?

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  • #37
  • Mar 1, 2021 11:29am Mar 1, 2021 11:29am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} Is that always the "Triangle" system? You haven't posted in the thread for a long time. {image}
Yes, always triangle
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but the truth is that in practice it is more messy actually

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  • #38
  • Edited 1:40pm Mar 1, 2021 1:28pm | Edited 1:40pm
It's not my opinion, it's a mathematical fact...

Nothing...no progression (positive or negative) because of the betting limits that the casino imposes, nor any bet selection beats the casino over the long run when the game has a built-in mathematical advantage that favors the casino...and all land based casino games do.

In simplistic terms...

European Roulette's advantage is 2.70% for the casino. The wheel has 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers PLUS one green number. That green number is how the casino gets the 2.7% advantage, because when 0 comes up, neither red nor black win.

American Roulette's advantage is 5.26% for the casino. The wheel 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers PLUS two green numbers. Those 2 green numbers are how the casino gets the 5.26% advantage, because when 0 or 00 comes up, neither red nor black win.

There are only two proven ways to consistently beat Roulette.

1. Cheat

2. Find a tilted (an out of balance wheel) and only bet on the numbers that the tilted wheel favors.

Aside from that, you are FAR better off playing Baccarat or Blackjack because the house's advantage is way lower on them than it is on Roulette.

And of the two, Baccarat is the easiest to play because you should only bet on Player or Banker, whereas in Blackjack, you only get the lowest odds by playing "Perfect Blackjack", and that's not always easy to do.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #39
  • Mar 1, 2021 1:35pm Mar 1, 2021 1:35pm
The real problem with roulette is the casino, brick and mortar or not, cheat the outcome. If you're a consistent winner you get banned. Majority of people won't believe this because they're losers.
Know what you trade
  • #40
  • Mar 1, 2021 4:02pm Mar 1, 2021 4:02pm
Quoting RobinHood
...Aside from that, you are FAR better off playing Baccarat or Blackjack because the house's advantage is way lower on them than it is on Roulette...
One can try Blackjack too!

When I read "Bernstein Jake" again, I immediately made the association with "Black Jack", and of course with Edward Thorp's life's work: "Beat the Dealer".
In my youth I practiced counting cards, but now my memory doesn't help me anymore ...

For Forex, one could adapt a "counting bars" method. I saw something like this here and there in forum, and Maxim (#Post 7) did something similar in his article - counting red and green bars and calculating probabilities.
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