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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,121
  • Feb 24, 2021 9:30pm Feb 24, 2021 9:30pm
Quoting stringfx
Tao, Check this chart ... {image}
Sorry the first image I listed was not the right one. That was to show you that if you started the wave 1 movement at March 2020, Wave 2 still does not reach the min amount. This image here is a zoomed in image of your wave 2 retracement level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4a029ca0ce52575eea1d8ea009556713.png Size: 82 KB
  • #1,122
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:03pm Feb 24, 2021 10:03pm
Tao,

It's great that u follow stringent rules of EW when it comes to Fibonacci but actually there are only 3 main rules of EW . No offense ..

A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules:

  1. Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
  2. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
  3. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation.


I have seen numerous shallow 2nd waves to substantiate my views. anyway we have different views which is also healthy as we can check each other. Now we will just wait until we see what happens coz all that matter is the forecast and it's ultimate revealing.

STING
  • #1,123
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:14pm Feb 24, 2021 10:14pm
Quoting stringfx
Tao, It's great that u follow stringent rules of EW when it comes to Fibonacci but actually there are only 3 main rules of EW . No offense .. A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules: Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation. I have seen numerous shallow 2nd waves to substantiate my views. anyway we have different views which is...
Fair enough. Yep now we just wait to see what happens .
  • #1,124
  • Feb 26, 2021 9:44pm Feb 26, 2021 9:44pm
DXY Update..

New turn in DXY count ..


With the thrust of the last 2 candles on 4 hr ... it seems clear that the alternate count is activated. (unless some fundamentals bring it down again).
So, Dollar bear seems over and the upward correction is going on most probably an ABC and this is the 1st wave of A leg completed and 2nd wave also seems completed (confirmation after high is taken out at 91.02)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy123.png Size: 35 KB
STING
  • #1,125
  • Feb 27, 2021 7:16am Feb 27, 2021 7:16am
Hi,
in my opinion, looking at the DX daily TF, we are still in the 4th wave, that is the most difficult to interpret. This scenario is valid until 92.40 (end of wave 1).
Around 91.80 there is a gap (visible on H4 TF) unfilled (but I don't trade gap...)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedUSDXDaily_LI.jpg Size: 879 KB
  • #1,126
  • Feb 27, 2021 8:45am Feb 27, 2021 8:45am
My view might differ with many but i am most comfortable with this view ... it's my alternate count . i was expecting a 5th wave down to 88.10 but i guess wave 5 ended some time back but you can never know unless some reflex points are broken ... waiting for the current swing high to be taken most probably with a gap this weekend as the last daily candle was a really bullish one. let's see how it plays out...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy 345.png Size: 56 KB
STING
  • #1,127
  • Feb 28, 2021 11:33pm Feb 28, 2021 11:33pm
dxy 30 minute chart.

I believe that 3 minor waves up is completed. it has a gap for the first leg down of 4th wave. It needs a little more move down on the c leg of 4th wave. after which we will get a rally up for the 5th wave.

I will give an approximate target for 5th wave after 4th wave completes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy999.png Size: 32 KB
STING
  • #1,128
  • Mar 1, 2021 7:36pm Mar 1, 2021 7:36pm
Good probability of the 1st 5 waves completion on DXY on 1 hr. It has hit 38.2 at 91.21 and a noticeable rejection. |It probably might move up to 61.8 at 91.52 which is also marked on the chart. If dxy moves down, then we can expect a 50% down move to complete wave 2 but i would not trade it. i'll wait for the start of 3rd wave up on dxy. Here is my chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy 888.png Size: 31 KB
STING
  • #1,129
  • Mar 2, 2021 8:21am Mar 2, 2021 8:21am
update to my earlier post regarding dxy

This is a 1 hr chart and seemingly dxy has completed the minor wave 1 and is in a descend for the second wave. Most probably this would end in 38.2 retrace or even 50% but don't take my word for it as 2nd waves have been seen plenty of times to almost reach 1st wave... so please be careful when you sell majors. I would be selling small from 61.8% , then 50% then 38.2% (twice the lot size) and last 23.6 ( 3 times).

Check the chart and leave your comments if possible.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy776.png Size: 36 KB
STING
  • #1,130
  • Mar 2, 2021 8:30am Mar 2, 2021 8:30am
How do you guys deal with the subjectivity of EW analysis?
For example, 2 EW experts almost for sure the do not count the waves in the same way and probably they will come to different conclusions
  • #1,131
  • Mar 2, 2021 8:41am Mar 2, 2021 8:41am
Quoting Merka
How do you guys deal with the subjectivity of EW analysis? For example, 2 EW experts almost for sure the do not count the waves in the same way and probably they will come to different conclusions
What Kind of analysis do you think does not have subjectivity? I don't think you can you give me something perfect for trading right?

I use EW with fractals and use higher timeframes for better judgement. then lower the TF for a better entry but i need to see a trend develop as well. With the help of Fibonacci, we can almost predict some targets with precision but then again it's not the perfect system. It's an almost perfect technical analysis, the rest is up to the hedge funds and other big traders!

I also use Relative strength to choose the best pairs to trade through finviz.com
STING
  • #1,132
  • Mar 2, 2021 9:05am Mar 2, 2021 9:05am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} What Kind of analysis do you think does not have subjectivity? I don't think you can you give me something perfect for trading right? I use EW with fractals and use higher timeframes for better judgement. then lower the TF for a better entry but i need to see a trend develop as well. With the help of Fibonacci, we can almost predict some targets with precision but then again it's not the perfect system. It's an almost perfect technical analysis, the rest is up to the hedge funds and other...
I like your passion specially when you wrote "It's an almost perfect technical analysis..."
What is your high time frame (Weekly, daily, 4H or H1)?
You wait for trend to develop on lower TF before entering as a confirmation?
Cheers
  • #1,133
  • Mar 2, 2021 9:14am Mar 2, 2021 9:14am
Quoting Merka
{quote} I like your passion specially when you wrote "It's an almost perfect technical analysis..." What is your high time frame (Weekly, daily, 4H or H1)? You wait for trend to develop on lower TF before entering as a confirmation? Cheers
starting right from monthly ... keep a rough picture of it... dig down to weekly.. keep another picture of this ... Then daily is the keeper TF for EW for me. I then dissect the daily into 4 hr and 1 hr charts keeping the higher time frame trends in the back of the mind. Then draw fibs to see specific targets.

I use relative strength data from finviz and also a cot net data from tradingster.com. Here is an excel sheet from 2nd feb2021
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx COT NET POSITION.xlsx   17 KB | 161 downloads
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  • #1,134
  • Mar 2, 2021 9:24am Mar 2, 2021 9:24am
Since this week has adp reports and NFP reports both showing numbers more than the forecast makes you a little more confident for the short term bullishness of US dollar. So in my analysis, dollar will go up on daily timeframe for a correction of 2nd wave . It could be simple zigzag, or a complex one. We have the direction by this method (most of the time). so buy dips on us dollar ...
STING
  • #1,135
  • Mar 2, 2021 1:18pm Mar 2, 2021 1:18pm
Thanks @stringfx

What's your view on EURUSD daily?
To me at the moment is just ranging but curios to see how EW guys define it's trend and forcast.
cheers
  • #1,136
  • Mar 3, 2021 2:54am Mar 3, 2021 2:54am
Quoting Merka
Thanks @stringfx What's your view on EURUSD daily? To me at the moment is just ranging but curios to see how EW guys define it's trend and forcast. cheers

Eur/usd according to me is a temporary down move to 1.1890 which means at least a 200 pip move south to complete wave C .
STING
  • #1,137
  • Mar 3, 2021 5:15am Mar 3, 2021 5:15am
possibility of a c wave up with the adp report.. then a good down move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur30.png Size: 38 KB
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  • #1,138
  • Mar 3, 2021 5:29am Mar 3, 2021 5:29am
Quoting stringfx
possibility of a c wave up with the adp report.. then a good down move {image}
i am following this count too, until it invalidates.
  • #1,139
  • Mar 3, 2021 5:33am Mar 3, 2021 5:33am
Quoting blurbear
{quote} i am following this count too, until it invalidates.
USD seems too powerful .... even negative reports not stopping it!
STING
  • #1,140
  • Mar 3, 2021 5:37am Mar 3, 2021 5:37am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} USD seems too powerful .... even negative reports not stopping it!
Mini waves could be extending....watching for ending diagonal...same as Eur....I go with my count.. if wrong, just cut.
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