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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,101
  • Feb 23, 2021 9:51pm Feb 23, 2021 9:51pm
Quoting stringfx
Here is what i think on USD/CAD Daily Timeframe... There may be a good possibility that a major wave has completed it's 5 wave downward move on this pair and a good possibility that this pair can go up on a very large correction to the upside. My calculations are solely based on Fibonacci ratios and this last wave has done the usual and minimum target down to 38.2 and on the daily TF, we can see a slight rejection. This is the reason i have taken some positions in demo account so far but not on my live account. we still have to wait and see if this...

Yesterday i had put up a usdcad daily chart. Here is the update ...

although there was a slight rejection, it quickly turned down again and closed below 38.2 which was the intended 5th major wave target, so probably it might go down again to 61.8 as DXY is in a major bearish mode as well. There could also be a rally up for a short term before the down move but major trend seems really down. I took some trades on demo to catch some of these short term rally due to the confluence of 5th wave 38.2 and 61.8 of the minor wave (shown in the chart as a standout).
Take a look at the chart .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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STING
  • #1,102
  • Feb 23, 2021 10:38pm Feb 23, 2021 10:38pm
Good folks, today i am joining an elite club of money losers by analysing the BITCOIN charts. Frankly i have never ever traded this virtual currency and hopefully will never trade it as well but there is so much hype in the market about it's huge volatility and this is also recognized by CFTC (Commodity futures trading commission) and now there is a COT report in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as well.

In the last month, I have had at least 8 brokers who had called me to Invest in this Coin.. So i thought lets start to analyse it at least for the time being...
The Hype has started from 27th Jan this year as it broke all levels and broke ceiling levels to reach almost 60K from 30K in less than a month. So what now ... take a look at my chart and comment as i know many of you must be trading this as i write this ...

I can see a clear 5 wave has completed in BTC/USD and now it could be a retracement to resume the bull trend and if it does that (break the high) then you can see 100K+ on this coin. so this could be an ABC decline before a surge up ..

According to me the ideal scenario is depicted in my chart. the 4th wave decline could be a complex one as well and not as simple as an ABC (but you get the idea right?) There are some experts with the opinion that 43K would seal the retracement and it's to the moon from there ... maybe !! anything can happen... market is vicious
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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STING
  • #1,103
  • Feb 23, 2021 10:43pm Feb 23, 2021 10:43pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Yesterday i had put up a usdcad daily chart. Here is the update ... although there was a slight rejection, it quickly turned down again and closed below 38.2 which was the intended 5th major wave target, so probably it might go down again to 61.8 as DXY is in a major bearish mode as well. There could also be a rally up for a short term before the down move but major trend seems really down. I took some trades on demo to catch some of these short term rally due to the confluence of 5th wave 38.2 and 61.8 of the minor wave (shown in the chart...
i agree with you, short term USDCAD will go up maybe almost 1.28 then drop again to the new low.
  • #1,104
  • Feb 23, 2021 10:47pm Feb 23, 2021 10:47pm
Quoting hans91
{quote} i agree with you, short term USDCAD will go up maybe almost 1.28 then drop again to the new low.

STING
  • #1,105
  • Feb 24, 2021 9:06am Feb 24, 2021 9:06am
Quoting stringfx
Good folks, today i am joining an elite club of money losers by analysing the BITCOIN charts. Frankly i have never ever traded this virtual currency and hopefully will never trade it as well but there is so much hype in the market about it's huge volatility and this is also recognized by CFTC (Commodity futures trading commission) and now there is a COT report in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as well. In the last month, I have had at least 8 brokers who had called me to Invest in this Coin.. So i thought lets start to analyse it at least for the...
Just glanced back into the site and am really surprized that there was no messages from bitcoin traders. Does this mean that you guys agree with my chart?

USD/CAD is like a yoyo today ... every 4 hour candle is like an alternation of bullish and bearish candles.

GBP/usd is nicely going down and is almost forming a daily pinbar. We will have to see by end of day.

Gold seemed to have made a 3 wave correction to the downside ...

eur/ud is also down with the correction. might move down some 20-25 pips and then start some upward action.

The commodity currency i.e AUD,NZD and CAD is not showing any signs of weakness still. So most probably when the bearish cycle of dxy starts, these 3 currencies are heading for the moon.
STING
  • #1,106
  • Feb 24, 2021 9:40am Feb 24, 2021 9:40am
Gold on hourly chart seems to have completed wave 2 correction with an ABC.. now going long for a 3rd wave and this should be pretty long i presume.

Dxy also is almost reaching the resistance level .. now there could be a strong reversal to bearish levels .. just my 2 cents..
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STING
  • #1,107
  • Feb 24, 2021 9:57am Feb 24, 2021 9:57am
S & P chart.

There seems to be one more push to the top especially when DXY is going down... S&P can reach 4258 before a turn down.
This could be the final minor wave to the upside but there is an alternate count once it beaks 3653 .. Here is a chart
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  • #1,108
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:06am Feb 24, 2021 10:06am
dxy update ..

Although there is a small possibility that dxy can go up a little more but seemingly it has completed an abc correction and is being rejected . so it's reasonably safe to assume it's bending towards the south which also means that it is time to buy the majors especially commodity currencies like nzd,aud and cad since they were not willing to come down even when dxy was climbing.
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  • #1,109
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:13am Feb 24, 2021 10:13am
EUR/USD

AS dxy is turning bearish, eur will do the opposite by turning bullish ... here is almost an identical opposite chart .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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STING
  • #1,110
  • Feb 24, 2021 9:41pm Feb 24, 2021 9:41pm
Good morning ...

Here is my view on 1 hr gold.

Since DXY is in a bearish mood and is expected to go to at least 88.60 which is 161.8 for a 3rd wave down... we have bullish gold and other majors. Since Gold is such a fast paced market, some care has to be taken on position sizing. This commodity can do a lot of damage to account size .. (personal experience !! )
Another personal experience with Commodities and elliott waves is that most of the time 5th waves are the longest that includes most of the futures market as well.

So here is a chart ... i think it is self explanatory. 1782 is the stop loss if anyone is bothered
London session should bring out the fireworks presumably.
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  • #1,111
  • Feb 24, 2021 9:59pm Feb 24, 2021 9:59pm
My 2 cent on Bitcoin (Elliott wave)

I believe that bitcoin is on a correction of the 4th major wave and in that wave, A leg (most aggressive wave) seems to be complete . B wave is going on and this is the most confusing and unpredictable wave . If it is a normal B then 61.8% of the A wave is expected and for that we need to reach 53166 as shown in the chart with fibo retracement. Once B wave complete, ( red stochastics on my chart is above 90) then we can sell with a tight stoploss for C leg continuation of 5 waves to the downside. That should yield quite a bit of pips as it's expected to last until 30K after which we resume a bullish trend to mars.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,112
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:06pm Feb 24, 2021 10:06pm
Quoting stringfx
My 2 cent on Bitcoin (Elliott wave) I believe that bitcoin is on a correction of the 4th major wave and in that wave, A leg (most aggressive wave) seems to be complete . B wave is going on and this is the most confusing and unpredictable wave . If it is a normal B then 61.8% of the A wave is expected and for that we need to reach 53166 as shown in the chart with fibo retracement. Once B wave complete, ( red stochastics on my chart is above 90) then we can sell with a tight stoploss for C leg continuation of 5 waves to the downside. That should yield...
Is this the 4 hour chart? I like your analysis here. But I think the larger pattern is on the daily and the weekly charts. My opinion is that you have to look at where the pattern starts on the largest time frame, so I always start with the monthly. Just my thoughts. What do you think?
  • #1,113
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:21pm Feb 24, 2021 10:21pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} Is this the 4 hour chart? I like your analysis here. But I think the larger pattern is on the daily and the weekly charts. My opinion is that you have to look at where the pattern starts on the largest time frame, so I always start with the monthly. Just my thoughts. What do you think?
Hi ..

Thanks for stopping by ...
The chart is a 4Hr chart and cropped up from my weekly chart (which is why you see a minor 4th wave triangle . but scope is the same as weekly chart. I have taken 3906 as the start of wave 1 in my count which is from march 2020. This is relatively a new thing in the market, so data availability if from 2017 and those days not much of trading activity on bitcoin. Major trading activity is from nov 2020... so yes it's a weekly chart consolidated into a 4 hr.

If possible i'd like to see your view and system. thanks
STING
  • #1,114
  • Edited Feb 25, 2021 12:58am Feb 24, 2021 10:29pm | Edited Feb 25, 2021 12:58am
Quoting stringfx
My 2 cent on Bitcoin (Elliott wave) I believe that bitcoin is on a correction of the 4th major wave and in that wave, A leg (most aggressive wave) seems to be complete . B wave is going on and this is the most confusing and unpredictable wave . If it is a normal B then 61.8% of the A wave is expected and for that we need to reach 53166 as shown in the chart with fibo retracement. Once B wave complete, ( red stochastics on my chart is above 90) then we can sell with a tight stoploss for C leg continuation of 5 waves to the downside. That should yield...
I just recounted the waves on my charts, and it looks like my setup is the same as yours. At first I just marked 4 waves on my chart, which you will see here with the first image. But wave four usually unfolds in a 3 wave pattern, so based on this, your chart is 100% accurate in my opinion. I agree with you........BUT........if you take a closer look you will notice the wave 3 I have marked did not unfold in a 5 wave pattern. It was just impulsive all the way up. So, what I have marked as a wave 4 on this first image may actually be the end of a wave 2 (inside of a wave 3) and the start of a 3rd wave inside of wave 3. Look at the image where I marked the waves inside of wave 3. That would mean the trend is going up and not down. But I have no way of knowing if this is right or wrong. What do you think?

The key here is that I'm starting on the weekly and the daily to see this larger pattern. If you started ONLY on the 4 hour chart, I would agree your analysis is valid. Thoughts?
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  • #1,115
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:35pm Feb 24, 2021 10:35pm
Nice charts... everyone has different views... . give me some time .. i will give my weekly analysis in about 15 minutes ...

There are a lot of waves within waves . will update soon . thanks for the charts.
STING
  • #1,116
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:40pm Feb 24, 2021 10:40pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Hi .. Thanks for stopping by ... The chart is a 4Hr chart and cropped up from my weekly chart (which is why you see a minor 4th wave triangle . but scope is the same as weekly chart. I have taken 3906 as the start of wave 1 in my count which is from march 2020. This is relatively a new thing in the market, so data availability if from 2017 and those days not much of trading activity on bitcoin. Major trading activity is from nov 2020... so yes it's a weekly chart consolidated into a 4 hr. If possible i'd like to see your view and system....
I just saw this post after I posted my last one. Okay everything on your chart looks great I agree with everything you said! That March 2020 Weekly wave 1 count works out perfectly with my analysis for a current Wave 3. I'm glad to have found a fellow EW enthusiast!
  • #1,117
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:45pm Feb 24, 2021 10:45pm
Quoting stringfx
Nice charts... everyone has different views... . give me some time .. i will give my weekly analysis in about 15 minutes ... There are a lot of waves within waves . will update soon . thanks for the charts.
Oops I forgot about the 4 hour chart bearish movement you mentioned. So, if you're counting waves on the weekly, you should end up with the same count as me, if you count wave 3 properly as a 5 wave pattern. If not, the rules for the wave break down and this movement is invalidated. I'll wait for you to respond
  • #1,118
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:55pm Feb 24, 2021 10:55pm
Tao, Check this chart ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btc 5.png Size: 73 KB
STING
  • #1,119
  • Feb 24, 2021 10:58pm Feb 24, 2021 10:58pm
Quoting TaoTrader
{quote} I just saw this post after I posted my last one. Okay everything on your chart looks great I agree with everything you said! That March 2020 Weekly wave 1 count works out perfectly with my analysis for a current Wave 3. I'm glad to have found a fellow EW enthusiast!
STING
  • #1,120
  • Feb 24, 2021 11:22pm Feb 24, 2021 11:22pm
Quoting stringfx
Tao, Check this chart ... {image}
Thanks for showing your chart I appreciate the interaction. So........if you look at your chart where you have Wave 2 listed, the minimum fibonacci retracement level for a wave 2 is 38.2%. Your Wave 2 retraces halfway between 23.6% and 38.2%. According to the rules of Elliot wave theory, this invalidates the movement as a valid wave 2. The first image I listed demonstrated this. If you look at the second image I listed, this projection reaches the valid minimum for a wave 2. What do you think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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