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My way of seeing the market

  • #101
  • Feb 20, 2021 7:44am Feb 20, 2021 7:44am
Quoting JensG
It is the explosivity we need to avoid.
Hi Jens, it's interesting that you mention explosivity. Because from what i read from all your posting, i thought that you actualy take advantage from this explosive move.
And for a while, that was where i try to find consistent profit.
My way of thinking was, explosive/impulsive move is where we can get asymmetry R:R. I can set SL and limit my loss if market impulsively move against me, on other hand i can get more than my SL when it impulsively move the way that i want.

Quoting Jaymantos
It is insane at what length I went to avoid the obvious stuff. I have traded NQ cfd for over 2 years and focussed on building crappy strategy with EMA's, MACD, stoch and other indicators that I can't even remember. I learnt mql4 along the way lol (it's just a dumbed down version of C++). I don't even know what I really learnt there when I think back and almost cringe about it. I would focus on hard R:R rules, ignoring everything that the market was screaming at me. At some point I was cursing at the monitor daily (yes I am ashamed to admit) and...
Hi Jay, good thread here. i hope you don't mind if i join you in this thread.

JensG, venividivici, and Michael are people who i admire and i always try to learn as much as possible from them. Especially Jens who has left FF many years ago, but finally i can read more from him in other website.

I hope this thread will give us many good guidance for reaching our goal.

Thank you
  • #102
  • Feb 20, 2021 11:08am Feb 20, 2021 11:08am
Quoting MichaelSch
{image} Seems you think to much. Do not complicate that to rocket science. I know trading is something that can build 1001 illusions in one trading day. But the core will never change! If buyer and seller for a period happy with price, it is something we can use to our favour. Let the big players fight and wait. Wait for the hard punches every corner give the other, like a great boxing fight. Like watching rocky. If one side is making ground you will see this first! You will see this side leading. You are happy with the hard fighting champ. Often...
Excellent post Michael
  • #103
  • Feb 20, 2021 12:24pm Feb 20, 2021 12:24pm
Quoting venividivici
{quote} Excellent post Michael
Many thanks.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #104
  • Feb 20, 2021 3:42pm Feb 20, 2021 3:42pm
May i ask you guys who using broker with raw spread + commision, what is the advantage using this type rather than standard spread?
doesn't the end result is the same?
e.g. raw spread 7 comm $3.5 vs standard spread 15

i ask this question to know if the spread calculation affect this style of trading.

Thanks
  • #105
  • Feb 20, 2021 3:50pm Feb 20, 2021 3:50pm
Quoting phoenix777
{quote} Hi Jens, it's interesting that you mention explosivity. Because from what i read from all your posting, i thought that you actualy take advantage from this explosive move. And for a while, that was where i try to find consistent profit. My way of thinking was, explosive/impulsive move is where we can get asymmetry R:R.
If we understand explosivity as the explosivity we see in news outbreaks, then it is primarily a lack of liquidity. The price then no longer moves smoothly, it jumps. If you want to trade something like that, you have to bet on one side before the price starts to move fast and heavy. Jumping on, in the mistaken belief that you can also jump off quickly, works a few times until you seriously burn your fingers with it. Both your entry price and your exit price are strongly subject to the luck factor in such constellations.
The asymmetry of risk and possible profit is not a consequence of the explosivity of the price development but is found in the pattern that you want to trade. Repeatedly tested and thus proven ranges are great precisely because you can set your stoploss very tightly, which means that your risk is low and clearly defined. At the same time, you have a good indication of where the price is likely to go if it moves in your direction and ultimately the probability of it doing so is relatively high. This is not to say that you should only trade ranges, I just like to use them as an example to outline the general mechanics. Once you understand that, you can then apply it to channels, mean reversion and so on.
I have talked about anticipating momentum on a small scale for entry-positioning from time to time. That brings us to what Venivedivicy and I like to call microlevels. Technically, these are simply areas where a lot of people have positioned their entry orders and on the chart, you see that, by the price making a small but fast slide. Getting this right does not improve the risk vs reward factor, but the probability. This is interesting in that trading in the short time frame is ultimately a game with the herd. Once you know where the herd tends to place its orders, you know that you are not the lone idiot trying to fight against the tide.
  • #106
  • Feb 20, 2021 4:15pm Feb 20, 2021 4:15pm
Quoting phoenix777
May i ask you guys who using broker with raw spread + commision, what is the advantage using this type rather than standard spread? doesn't the end result is the same? e.g. raw spread 7 comm $3.5 vs standard spread 15 i ask this question to know if the spread calculation affect this style of trading. Thanks
Just take what gives you the lowest trading costs. Whether the commission pads bid and ask or you pay them separately is irrelevant. As long as you are limited to classic retail brokers, I would choose the cheapest reputable one and also include rebate programmes. As soon as you do decent volume, I would look for more professional providers. The commission paid in the retail sector is often around 3 times higher than what I pay.
By the way, spread comparison sites can only be relied on to a limited extent, as they only compare the headline spreads, i.e. the quotes top of the book. These sites ultimately promote the retail brokers' trickery with the almost endless possibilities of selecting these headline spreads, because the winner here is never the one with the best execution, but the one who puts the best prices in the shop window, regardless of whether these are achieved during execution or not. Incidentally, the race for more liquidity providers can also be due precisely to the dressing up of these headline spreads.
  • #107
  • Feb 20, 2021 4:22pm Feb 20, 2021 4:22pm
Quoting JensG
{quote} If we understand explosivity as the explosivity we see in news outbreaks, then it is primarily a lack of liquidity. The price then no longer moves smoothly, it jumps. If you want to trade something like that, you have to bet on one side before the price starts to move fast and heavy. Jumping on, in the mistaken belief that you can also jump off quickly, works a few times until you seriously burn your fingers with it. Both your entry price and your exit price are strongly subject to the luck factor in such constellations. The asymmetry of...
Thanks Jens,

I think i quite understand with what you have said here, i also learn a lot from venividivici thread.

I have learnt something called OTE (Optimal Trade Entry). In uptrend channel, with clear HH and HL, OTE is at HL area. in Range channel, OTE is at either High or Low. Of course we need some "confirmation" whether price move according to that channel. Maybe that's why you mostly use Stop entry.
Entry at OTE will give limited SL, and if price move in channel direction, then Profit will eventually bigger than SL.

I will try to put some chart when market open. Hope i get this right.

Thank you for your help..

Quoting JensG
{quote} Just take what gives you the lowest trading costs. Whether the commission pads bid and ask or you pay them separately is irrelevant. As long as you are limited to classic retail brokers, I would choose the cheapest reputable one and also include rebate programmes. As soon as you do decent volume, I would look for more professional providers. The commission paid in the retail sector is often around 3 times higher than what I pay. By the way, spread comparison sites can only be relied on to a limited extent, as they only compare the headline...
The lowest cost that i can get right now with limited deposit is
EURUSD 1 pips spread, GBPUSD 1.5, USDJPY 1.5
But i think it's not really important right now, when i can consistently getting result from my trading then i will look for the cheapest one, right now, i have no bargaining position.

Thanks
  • #108
  • Feb 21, 2021 11:37am Feb 21, 2021 11:37am
Heres some different examples Michael talks about that look slightly different, They will get near to a major level but if you watch it live you will see it hasn't got the strength to break it.

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  • #109
  • Edited 3:45am Feb 22, 2021 2:58am | Edited 3:45am
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I saw a very strong downmove then it broke the support level.
When price retest the broken level, i try to see the market movement live at that level. It looks like every up move always countered by strong downmove, so i just jump the gun, and short it.
Usualy i don't trade that kind of retracement, seems like too quick.
It also looks like that i took to early profit, when i saw it reached the next support level (shown when i switch to M5)
It will be ideal TP when it reached next support level, where it shows so rejection.

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2nd trade, loss. Price hit my SL then move to my TP.

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3rd trade, loss.
From the uptrend trend line i've drawn, we can see there is broken level below that line, and market created weak HH, so in my mind i was looking for reversal aka broken uptrend channel
1. price stalled at level
2. stalled again
3. i waited for price shows some quick rejection reaction. and after that took short
4. worried because it looks like the uptrend channel still intact
5. closed the trade.
  • #110
  • Edited 4:20am Feb 22, 2021 3:46am | Edited 4:20am
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4th trade win.
I learnt from the last trade where i misjudge broken trend line combine with weak HH as reversal.
So i went with the trend. When it retraced (not to clean, as dirty as veni said), i waited for upmove momentum, the took long

For the TP, it felt like i will miss money on the table, because my plan was wait it to reach some level and see some weakness.
But it showed weakness before the level so i close it.

(sorry i just know that FF only allow 4 attachment, so i can't merge this post)

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5th trade, loss.,
So, uptrend channel is broken clear and clean now. So i was thinking of change of trend.
When price go up to last HH, and the upmove is very straight, i was waiting for some weakness or slowdown.
It slowed and showed some rejection, took short.
But the momentum was not following, so when it moved back, i closed in loss.

From my experience, 2Hours after LO, market will move so slow, and it take years to see any big move. so i will skip this session, and see next in newyork.

I hope with this trade example, i can get many advice and input from all of you guys.
I didn't mean to clutter this thread, as i realized maybe this is Jay's personal journal, and i should not treat it like mine. Sorry
  • #111
  • Feb 22, 2021 10:09am Feb 22, 2021 10:09am
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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #112
  • Feb 22, 2021 11:09am Feb 22, 2021 11:09am
Quoting MichaelSch
{image}

Hi Michael,

I hope all is well and your Trading is flourishing...

A view of the GBP/USD
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  • #113
  • Feb 22, 2021 11:19am Feb 22, 2021 11:19am
Quoting MichaelSch
{image}
Good to see were seeing the same things, I saw this trade this morning too! Nice 20+ pip move down.. some good moves today.
  • #114
  • Feb 22, 2021 11:20am Feb 22, 2021 11:20am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Michael, I hope all is well and your Trading is flourishing... A view of the GBP/USD {image}
Many thanks and your examples are great teachings.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #115
  • Feb 22, 2021 11:29am Feb 22, 2021 11:29am
Quoting venividivici
{quote} Good to see were seeing the same things, I saw this trade this morning too! Nice 20+ pip move down.. some good moves today.
You are a great inspiration.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #116
  • Feb 22, 2021 12:28pm Feb 22, 2021 12:28pm
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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #117
  • Feb 23, 2021 10:55am Feb 23, 2021 10:55am
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In my signature i point it. Make trading as easy as you can. In this thread we have now really good informations collect, posts from great members here. Hope the thread starter is well.
I am go in reading mode, have shown my way and every new post will show the same. I will read here how your trading will go. Thanks.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #118
  • Feb 23, 2021 12:54pm Feb 23, 2021 12:54pm
Hello Michael,

Yes I’m well thank you and I hope you are doing good too!

I have reflected a lot on this and I think everything that is needed is within this thread. No need to expand further. I have been given more than what I bargained for.
I think now I need to work on myself and develop my discipline as a trader and step up to the plate. That is why I don’t plan to post much anymore because it could become counter productive at some point… I believe that just as we speak, I have everything to become successful.

I am sorry if what I am saying feels like a let down. It is not. I am still working and building my business! I will just come here less often to stay focussed on the right tracks.

Thank you to everyone that has posted here and offered some help. I am extremely grateful. I believe the quality of people in this thread is one of the best on the whole internet.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #119
  • Mar 1, 2021 12:27pm Mar 1, 2021 12:27pm
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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #120
  • Edited 7:58am Mar 4, 2021 7:03am | Edited 7:58am
Inserted Video


I am not into football particularly but I find that the message applies nonetheless...

"Get out of your mind"

The "game" of trading is more of a psychological nature than anything else. Markets are relentless. There is always an opportunity to blow up at evey moment. There are 24 hours in a day to do that and 5 days in a week. There are a couple times in a trading session where it is statistically worth it to be "playing". And if I ignore this fact because I just took a loss on a perfectly valid setup and want to make it back instantly, or I had a bad night of sleep, or I'm impulsive or whatever, I will end up blowing up my account, it is a question of "when".

"By the way my problem with trading wasn't really trading performance itself but psychological impulse, self sabotaging actions which im still trying to improve today, so look into that very carefully ..It cant be overlooked..We are always doing thing sometimes we dont even realise."

If you have 1 year or more of consistantly looking at the same chart day in day out, the above quote is the real issue. Chart reading is not the hard part. It's imperfect by the definition of the market (there is a random walk component, imo.. or a similar phenomena, call it how you want). I need to get over it. "Trust the process"

Enemy number 1 in trading is fear.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
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