$ For The Week of 11/6-With Trade Ideas

There 2 possibilities here, either A - the gbp will smash thru 9150 maybe test 8200 big RN, or some dollar bullish news or sentiment might step in and it will drop like a rock... hate to mention TA on a news thread but maybe this will turn into one big 2B pattern... lol yeah rite... ;-)

I just saw on Bloomberg that a guy named Frist says that the Republicans will keep the majority. Since the EUR/USD has been trading higher do you think that this is dollar positive because they are overexagerating the hope that Democrats will take either the House or Senate?

wow that would be insane... G_D knows what would happen then. believe me cable longs are in danger at this point just as much as dollar bulls, this thing can drop like a rock if 1 fundamental item changes. Next time im gonna def take profit if i see it stall at support and form a doji or hammer made a critical mistake in my profit taking strat which i need to refine.

Watching the election results is very important. The market definately percieves democratic control of both houses as $-...if that doesn't pan out a strong round of $ buying could occur, especially as the EUR and GBP have risen to areas of previous strong resistance.

Still, even if republicans retain control and the GBP drops....I would look to buy on the dips...

still short though cause im totally a rebel and insane.... hahahha

;-)

Lol...yeah u are insane enoc-if your shorting into this...

It Just Goes to Show How the Fundamentals Drive the Market

There's no question a major factor in the $ sell off is the suspected election results (democratic control of both houses). Watching the results could net some major profits if it turns out the republicans maintain control. No opinion either way from here...but i'll be ready to trade should that happen.

I would tend to think alot of the sentiment regarding democrats is probably overblown anyway...

Perfect trading scenario: Republicans retain control-allows for shorting EUR and GBP. Once the gas has gone out of that one-you can get long in cable again. They're still raising there rate twice more and we aren't. Keeping my fingers crossed on that one.

What do ya'll think will happen? I think the Republicans will retain control because there are simply too many of them that are enjoying what is going on with their businesses and everything. I think the rise of the currencies against the Dollar are overdone anyway (at least I am hoping it is). I am currently short EUR/USD @ 1.2760. It never broke below 1.2750 all night so Dollar bears are looking for an excuse to drive the dollar lower. What do you all think?

Tremon stick to your convictions if your wrong so be it move on and learn... dont be so quick to change your mind or strat if its based on sound reasoning... stay cool regardless of what the market is doing dont let emotions cloud your mind... ;-)

Thanks enoc2g...I am remaining cool because my gut feeling is telling me that the rise was overdone and a drop is going to happen...Are you in any trades currently?

if this thing turns we'll be singing the pip song,,, and these socalled cable bulls will be running for cover bleeding from the pockets...

yes im short gbp since before NFP i have accepted the risk and the possibilty of losing... im at peace with being detroyed in order to test and stick to my conviction. The only thing i probably should have done different was take profits at 8950 then get back in short now... oh well lesson learned.

if this thing turns we'll be singing the pip song,,, and these socalled cable bulls will be running for cover bleeding from the pockets...

Hey man-my best advice is neither a bull nor a bear be...because it's mostly based on the fundamentals-with some technical support and resistance levels thrown in...I was a GBP bull after the NIESR, but u know what? If republicans retain control, i'll turn right around and be a bear...

This isn't like rooting for a sports team where a real fan stays with their team thru good times and bad...my feelings constantly change with the fundamentals...how can a trader not change when the market thinking constantly does?

I promise you that as a recent GBP bull-I won't be bleeding if the thinking turns around-I'm gonna trade on the change of fundamental thinking if one occurs...and make whatever pips I can...

I'm giving you my best fundamental advice-if the republicans retain control-you'll have an excellent chance to short either EUR or GBP-if that happens, try to spot a bottom for the GBP-it'll go up again as the election effects fade and traders start looking again at 2 BoE rate increases...

If the democrats do gain control? To be honest with you-I wouldn't be sure what to do, since so much of this has already been bought into...I would have to step back and see what's goin on in that case...

If the republicans are elected that will be dollar negative, and positive for the stock market. Republicans will cut more taxes and pile on more and more debt. and running the printing presses 24/7, thus deflating the dollar.

i know news im only kidding... i shift my tactics as well...

Those may be some of the long term effects...but in the immediate term, republican control is definately $+...

Another word on the GBP-a drop may still be seen even if the dems get control...a nice drop there still offers an excellent buying chance based on the interest rate fundamentals. The difference to my trading strategy is that I won't be shorting the GBP if the dems get control, but I will if they don't. Again, either way, a nice drop in the GBP signals a new long oppurtunity...

If you are watching Bloomberg...check the bottom headlines because it says that Frist (who is in the U.S. Senate) says that the Republicans will retain control. So if he is in the US Senate and says they will retain control does that make you wonder what's going on no matter what the votes say? If Republicans retain control that Dollar positive immediate term right? Do ya'll think we will see the EUR/USD as well as GBP/USD drop from the surprised rally it encountered today?

This is really getting to be fun...I keep shorting the GBP as it hits that 9010 resistance level...

NEWS good strat work it both ways, and yes this will be very fun...

From Wachovia:

We briefly mentioned today's midterm elections in yesterday's report, and we wish to expand on that theme today. As we wrote yesterday, the most bearish scenario for the dollar would be a big night for Democrats (i.e., not only do Democrats gain a majority in the House but they also take the Senate). Conversely, Republicans retaining control of both houses of Congress would be the most bullish scenario for the greenback. Because of their ties to labor, Democrats are seen by many market participants as favoring a weaker dollar that would help to spur exports and constrain imports. (This perceived bias conveniently ignores the fact that the "strong dollar policy" was coined by Robert Rubin, who served as Treasury Secretary under President Clinton.)

In our view, however, any effect on the dollar from the elections will be very short lived . Dollar policy is the domain of the U.S. Treasury Department, and Secretary Paulson is not going anywhere regardless of which party control Congress. Moreover, U.S. economic policy will not change significantly over the next two years. With President Bush still in the White House, the probability of tax hikes is quite low . The bottom line is that the election will have little effect on the U.S. economic outlook and, consequently, should have few implications for dollar exchange rates. Although the greenback could react once the election results start to print, the effects should be rather short lived .

It could be a very good time to short the EURO and GBP-but it'll be even better if the republicans retain controll of congress (or even just the senate)

<TABLE id=myTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=tt align=right>

Time (NYT)
</TD><TD class=tt align=middle>Loc</TD><TD class=tt align=middle>Description</TD><TD class=tt align=right>Fcst</TD><TD class=tt align=right>Prev</TD><TD class=tt align=right>ACTUAL</TD></TR><TR><TD class=even vAlign=top align=right width=65>11/7 06:00</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=middle>E-12</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=left>Germany September Industrial Output</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=right>0.1%</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=right>1.9%</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=middle>-0.3% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=right width=65>11/8 00:00</TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=middle>Japan</TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=left>September Leading Index </TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=right>20.0</TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=right>18.2</TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD class=even vAlign=top align=right width=65>11/8 02:00</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=middle>E-12</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=left>Germany September Current Account Balance</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=right>E6.5 bln euros</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=right>E2.4 bln euros</TD><TD class=even vAlign=top align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=right width=65>11/8 19:30</TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=middle>Australia</TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=left>RBA Monetary Policy Decision</TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=right>6.25%</TD><TD class=odd vAlign=top align=right>6.00%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Forexnews.com has australia's interest rate announcement for tomorrow FF has it down for today? I know I am on African time but something's amiss