EUR/USD 15m trendline breakout | Page 14 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Please code "Parabol trendline" or "Curve trendline" for me 0 replies

Looking for a 15M Breakout Strategy 26 replies

Trendline, Trendline and Trendline 4 replies

EUR 15M BOL Retracement system 7 replies

Any 15M trading system to share??? 4 replies

Attachments: EUR/USD 15m trendline breakout
Exit Attachments

EUR/USD 15m trendline breakout

  • #261
  • Feb 16, 2021 7:39am Feb 16, 2021 7:39am
This is frustrating. I was very close to taking a short on euro here at the top of a channel. I was in a cable trade though which made me nothing.

I am now long on the pivot on cable... please just 10 or 20 pips all i ask. That trend line retest was the perfect place to re-enter short on cable.. absolutely kicking myself
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 121 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #262
  • Edited 8:45am Feb 16, 2021 8:05am | Edited 8:45am
Out breakeven last trade. The forex gods are against me.

I bought EURUSD at S2 as it's also a round number 1.21. We can't just drop 60 pips without a retrace

Out BE. FFS!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #263
  • Feb 16, 2021 8:17am Feb 16, 2021 8:17am
make some rules for this thread like all the trades we take here are with 1% risk , and then always follow that risk and keep updating like okay you made 10 pips by risking 10 pips so profit is +1% of equity and so on, this will be easy and crispy rather than pips
i would love it if you post trade calls along with SL & TP here , i will be taking them as well
  • #264
  • Feb 16, 2021 8:36am Feb 16, 2021 8:36am
I'll try- however i'm very discretionary, I adjust TP and SL very quickly depending on what the market is doing. Like if the market makes a sudden burst of 10-20 pips I'll often just lock in the profit regardless of my planned TP. Also I exit trades very quickly if I feel they're not going to work rather than waiting for a fixed SL. I'll try though

Also I think it's really important to move the stop to breakeven quickly as I don't know where the market is going, I don't do elliot wave or anything. Just trading the noise and where I expect price will do something
  • #265
  • Edited 9:57am Feb 16, 2021 9:28am | Edited 9:57am
Shorted cable at the pivot. also 0.382 retrace. I am hoping this is the beginning of a longer bear correction.

EDIT- down 10 pips. That was a dumb trade, I think just a desire to participate having not achieved anything this week. Going to walk away for now come back refreshed tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #266
  • Edited 2:05pm Feb 16, 2021 10:06am | Edited 2:05pm
Last trade for sure. short cable, stop at BE already

EDIT- currently running 22 pips in profit. Ordinarily I would have closed by now but as we are coming off the top of a long term channel I'll try letting it run

CLOSED +25 pips 3xR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 123 KB
  • #267
  • Feb 16, 2021 11:52am Feb 16, 2021 11:52am
I just started updating the methodology on the opening page, I can't work out how to embed images sequentially so i'll just make new posts and link to them on the front page. I started with the monthly, now go down to the weekly.

Same idea as the monthly, start to drill down into weekly support/resistance. I added a weekly support/demand zone where the weekly last bounced.

We can also add trend lines and start to think about the overall picture. Here I see a potential double top forming, a bearish wedge, and bearish MACD divergence (histogram making a lower high whilst price makes a higher high, indicating the trend might change soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audweek.jpg Size: 114 KB
  • #268
  • Feb 16, 2021 12:02pm Feb 16, 2021 12:02pm
Daily Chart

I just added some more areas of interest, ie daily supply/demand zones in blue. Also noting the overall picture- a double top potentially forming within a wedge with MACD divergence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audday.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #269
  • Feb 16, 2021 12:16pm Feb 16, 2021 12:16pm
4h Chart

Starting to drill down into the intraday, draw any trendlines and mark out any areas of interest. I saw a recent swing high/low so added a fib retracement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud4h.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #270
  • Feb 16, 2021 12:24pm Feb 16, 2021 12:24pm
15m chart

Now start to add the minor supports, any price which acts as a turning point and is repeated more than once. Use a rectangle if its an area rather than specific price. Add in anymore trendlines that stick out. Also added a fib to the most recent swing high/low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud15m.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #271
  • Feb 16, 2021 12:38pm Feb 16, 2021 12:38pm
I'll start posting the different setups I'll take now starting with a trade that jumped off the chart whilst I was setting this chart up

Wedge break and retest

Really simple. This is my desert island trade. A wedge pattern is formed. Wait for it to retest the trendline then short for a rising wedge and long for a falling wedge. Take profit is optional, support, pivot points etc. A full 55 pips was on offer for 5 pips risk. Risk is placed usually with a hard 10 pips SL but a mental stoploss just above the trendline. If a candle on 5m closes above the trendline think about closing the trade. Here was an 11xR trade that could have been left to run all afternoon. The daily support, pivot point, double top all give extra weight. I love these as there's minimal drawdown and it's a high percentage win rate.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud5m.jpg Size: 120 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wedge1.jpg Size: 160 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wedge2.jpg Size: 164 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wedge3.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #272
  • Feb 16, 2021 12:53pm Feb 16, 2021 12:53pm
Pivot bounce trade

Another all time favourite with a high win rate. Simply long or short at the daily pivot. Get used to the idea of shorting whilst price is going up when scalping and vice versa. Take profit at the nearest S1/R1, or support/res. Usually a mental stoploss of 6 pips or so. 12 pips or 2xR on offer here.

Note you can technically do this with any of the pivots. I'd say the daily pivot is the most reliable, followed by any of the weekly pivots, then S3/R3, then S1/R1 then S2/R2. Practice with just the daily pivot.

In this instance the pivot is also a support turned resistance which price is coming to test. It's also between 0.5/0.618 which is the most common retracement zone. Absolutely perfect. Cast iron trade, decent RR in this case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud5m.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #273
  • Edited 3:25pm Feb 16, 2021 1:09pm | Edited 3:25pm
Confluence scalp

This trade is the most open to interpretation. Basically we are looking for 3 or more corresponding levels to enter in a trade- one can be in DXY. It can be S&R, pivots, trendline, edge of a channel, fibonacci retrace/extension, divergence, psych levels (round numbers), yesterdays high/low. Here we have daily S2, daily S&R, and a support/resistance as well as R1 on DXY at 2pm.

Targets are either daily S1, pivot point, or 0.382 retrace in this case as a target. This is where discretion comes in- I probably would have taken the 0.382 retrace after such a long drop.

These are the most common trades under my methodology as they occur all the time. HOWEVER. They demand the most experience as you need to be able to read price action, exit quickly if it doesn't go your way, and learn when and where to take profits. In fact, those things are true of any of these setups.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: confluence.jpg Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #274
  • Feb 16, 2021 1:27pm Feb 16, 2021 1:27pm
The 'M' and 'W' pattern

AKA double top and double bottom. Just look for this shape to occur on the 5m TF. Take the last 'leg' of the W or M, draw a fib retracement. Wait for 0.618 to fib and enter short for an M, long for a W. As with previous trade setups, use discretion to pick a sensible place to exit and watch the price action, let winners run and cut losses short.

First M pattern was GU today. maddeningly I missed it as I wasn't really on form today. However it gave a nice 30 pips or more. Obvious target is the bottom of the channel that formed.

The W pattern on Euro turned into quite a nice swing trade which have hundreds of pips if you had the nerve to hold.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Mpattern.jpg Size: 147 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Wpattern.jpg Size: 209 KB
  • #275
  • Feb 16, 2021 1:34pm Feb 16, 2021 1:34pm
Flag break and retest

Very self explanatory, same rules as the wedge breakout and retest. Let S&R, pivots and price action guide your exit. Here is UK 10 year Gilts today. The pattern occurs a lot in the bond market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flag.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #276
  • Feb 16, 2021 2:43pm Feb 16, 2021 2:43pm
Very well structured thread and very informative charts, keep it up!

I kicked myself today for being so fixated on taking the long on GU and completely miss the obvious M shouting at us during the 3-rd hour into London session. Well, no harm done but nothing to show as well.

As a relative newcomer in FX I also find supporting T/L approach very helpful but the main issue is to make sure not to fall into trap of false breakouts. But as long as one is running prudent MM, all should be fine.

I personally found the automatically generated weekly pivots and S/R systems counterproductive because it created anchoring points, which started to interfere with the trade taking decisions. Especially in the trending conditions e.g. is it really OK to take a long when price is above R100? Yes, it was.

Will keep an eye over here because I really like your way of risk management and approach to good short term trades.

Take care,
I

Quoting mysterio
The 'M' and 'W' pattern AKA double top and double bottom. Just look for this shape to occur on the 5m TF. Take the last 'leg' of the W or M, draw a fib retracement. Wait for 0.618 to fib and enter short for an M, long for a W. As with previous trade setups, use discretion to pick a sensible place to exit and watch the price action, let winners run and cut losses short. First M pattern was GU today. maddeningly I missed it as I wasn't really on form today. However it gave a nice 30 pips or more. Obvious target is the bottom of the channel that formed....
  • #277
  • Feb 16, 2021 2:53pm Feb 16, 2021 2:53pm
Decided to short AUD/USD as a confluence trade.

Why- because of the potential bearish retrace shown on the higher TFs potentially top of a double top on daily. DXY has shown a W pattern and broken out of a falling wedge. Entry short on aud is on a pivot point and fib retrace point. IF dxy breaks down out of this pennant I'll exit hopefully at BE

DXY is implying a LOT of upside and certainly AUD looks to be setting up that way. Exit would be at weekly support
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy.jpg Size: 146 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: flag.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #278
  • Feb 16, 2021 2:57pm Feb 16, 2021 2:57pm
Quoting Ilvez
Very well structured thread and very informative charts, keep it up! I kicked myself today for being so fixated on taking the long on GU and completely miss the obvious M shouting at us during the 3-rd hour into London session. Well, no harm done but nothing to show as well. As a relative newcomer in FX I also find supporting T/L approach very helpful but the main issue is to make sure not to fall into trap of false breakouts. But as long as one is running prudent MM, all should be fine. I personally found the automatically generated weekly pivots...
Thanks man appreciate the comment! One of those days where I was confusing myself with an internal dialogue, somehow went from bearish to bullish to bearish again. Also a newcomer, basically only trading since the inception of this thread. When I look at the trades back in November I wince but i'm pleased with where i'm at now.

As for false breakouts, you just have to develop an eye for it really. I've been caught out many times in the past. Best way is to wait for the breakout to occur then price to retest the edge of the trendline- it works very well on GU.
  • #279
  • Feb 16, 2021 3:12pm Feb 16, 2021 3:12pm
Dollar is finding its feet, indeed. Combined with strong GBP it might make trading GU slightly complicated and less predictable.

Keep an eye open for GA and GN pairs, they might offer some nice range trades around the round numbers. Spreads are bad, but if aiming for 70-100 pips, it should not be a concern


Quoting mysterio
{quote} Thanks man appreciate the comment! One of those days where I was confusing myself with an internal dialogue, somehow went from bearish to bullish to bearish again. Also a newcomer, basically only trading since the inception of this thread. When I look at the trades back in November I wince but i'm pleased with where i'm at now. As for false breakouts, you just have to develop an eye for it really. I've been caught out many times in the past. Best way is to wait for the breakout to occur then price to retest the edge of the trendline- it...
  • #280
  • Edited 2:08am Feb 17, 2021 1:58am | Edited 2:08am
Quoting Ilvez
Dollar is finding its feet, indeed. Combined with strong GBP it might make trading GU slightly complicated and less predictable. Keep an eye open for GA and GN pairs, they might offer some nice range trades around the round numbers. Spreads are bad, but if aiming for 70-100 pips, it should not be a concern {quote}
Thanks, I will take a look!

Felt like I needed a break today so stepping away from the screen as I've been spending way too much time on this during lockdown. No doubt I'll check in later.

AUD running well, too. I never take trades longer then a day so maybe this is the one? Looks about to break support. About 20 pips clear stop at breakeven

Wait..looks like it did break support currently retesting. Dollar flew overnight
1 trader viewing now