EUR/USD 15m trendline breakout

Sell order at 1.2054 tagged overnight 10 pip SL now locked in at BE. We've formed a little bear flag at 50% of the initial down move. The entry was based on 50% retrace of the most recent swing high/low and resistance area 1.2050/60 as well as the picture on dxy, also we need to have a pull back after a big up thrust like that i reckon. I wonder if we'll initially see a range develop between the 50%/38.2% (1.2064-1.1975) levels of the recent monthly impulse leg up.

10yr Treasury yields making a bee line for 1.23% meaning the market is expecting inflation which will lead to a more hawkish fed policy. The stimulus is just transfer payments and it's main effect is likely to be inflationary, increasing demand by transferring money to people who are more likely to spend. I believe we have CPI inflation data from the US this week, this will give us some direction

Next area to take out is 1.2030 (0.382 fib) then look for a reaction at the pivot 1.20164. IF we get there, we could just be up to test 1.2050/60 again. But the flag suggests continuation down towards the pivot

Took 15 pips then re-short at 1.2046, stop to BE

Edit- took 20 pips on the second short

Took 20 pips on this wedge breakout on cable. Entered on retest closed after the impulse towards the pivot. DXY was showing signs of weakness at a resistance level

I'd consider a long if we retest the flag, but I have surpassed my target for the day so I'm wary

Edit- here we are, I think it's good for a long but I'm not going to take it as I don't want to risk giving up my gains

Ultimately it made it all the way down to 0.618 of the last impulse where i considered entering. It has now formed a triangle which has broken out up, so I still think its setting up for a long. The resistance at 1.2060 rules it out for me though

Maybe should have taken that long- I would be 50 pips up! I shorted cable at supply

I cashed in undoubtedly too early with 15 (5 pip SL), lets see if we retest

Reshort cable same reasons 1.3780

Grabbed 15 pips short on EU at LO. I wanted to go long where I indicated but missed the launchpad- entry was supply/wedge top, W pattern retrace. The W pattern launched at 0.382 of the asia move and a TL confluence- great long entry but didnt execute

DXY appears to have finished sell off from the H&S at the channel bottom now after a touch of S1

Edit- still about 15 pips underwater on cable, a bit disappointing. I had expected DXY to rally a bit and close the gab but no bueno. 1.3800 should resist at least enough to get out at BE if necessary. I will revisit in the AM. Ultimately had a couple of good profitable trades and became a bit attached to this one, after moving the stoploss away from BE twice. 90.50 is a good level and we surely need to pull back at some point

Edit- stopped out -20, so i'm now only 5 pips up on the day. I reshorted cable and will lock this in BE asap. We're at the top of an old wedge, supply, and a small ascending channel on 5m so it will at least give enough movement down to get my stop to BE and we'll see if we get any movement down overnight.

Stopped out on cable overnight at breakeven. Honestly not a great week so far- in profit but not alot. Following a couple of great weeks profit wise. I shorted cable at 1.38503 as its a round number, fib extension level and DXY at support. So I expect at least a pullback to get my stop in at BE. TP is open.

Here was my observation on Eur this morning. A short scalp was possible before getting blocked by a 4h TF trendline.

EDIT- still short cable. Attached update, currently 16 pips in the green with stop at BE

My trade overnight got 30 pips then reversed and stopped out BE. it bounced off of the 76.4 fib extension. The good news is we got solid rejection off of 1.3860 so I resold when it looked like the market was making a double top. Entered on the break and retest of the wedge

Currently 50 pips or so in the green going to let it run in expectation of poor UK data tomorrow hopefully gives us the push down to 1.3750 or beyond. Classic M pattern, retraced to pivot then 0.618 of the last down leg before dropping. DXY strengthening, looking good.

Just a quick update. Ended up taking 55 pips on the down move and going long for 30 pips after a breakout and retest of a wedge.

Spent a bit of time cleaning up the charts but I think I made them messier.

Short GU, top of a wedge and round number, TP open

i'm in GU short @ 1.38990 , sl 1.39151

Stopped out BE but re-entered on the break of this wedge

Thanks for commenting, actually the first time someone commented on this journal

Out BE. No pips today, v thin volumes. Last try, short cable weekly R1, wedge retest

Out BE last trade. Shorting again... correction time from the top of the channel?

Out BE. I have switched to bulls side as there is a huge gilt sell off in progress.

i will be more active on this thread from now onwards, it's just that i am still reading the posts, there's a lot to understand and that's the only reason lesser people are here on it lol , but i will stay here will learn from this journal

Thanks any comments welcome. I am definitely no expert only trading full time since Nov after dabbling at the past but I am at least making money consistently now. There are times where I have a bonanza day (last Fri was 85 pips) then times like this where no matter what I do I can't get a winning trade. I do aggressively protect my capital though by moving stops to BE as soon as the market allows it

Honestly having terrible luck this week haven't made any pips. My head is not in it. Wish I had just stayed short now. My mind is playing tricks. Lots of trades that go 10 pips in profit then take me out at breakeven