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Fractal Market Structure And Multiple Time-frames

  • #21
  • Jan 13, 2021 7:56am Jan 13, 2021 7:56am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} The cycles work on every instrument but they are sometimes difficult to interpret on Dax as sometimes it is very erratic in its movement , in that situation i would stand aside and wait for a clearer picture. A complete cycle can be corrective or impulsive , ideally it is better to use three timeframes to establish which one it is, by using two timeframes we could be trading an impulse in a correction ie abc ,,,, c is an impulse as it is moving in the same direction as the corrective cycle. Eg gbpusd current 4 Hour swings/cycles are all...
OK, understood and I had a very important confirmation from you about it.

2nd question is not regarding cycles, but it's a topic not too far from them.
I mean seasonal charts, specifically I posted from time to time monthly seasonal chart last 20 years for DAX COMPOSITE, so all German shares Index.
I was so impressed as even on a wild year as 2020, many many months respected their historical monthly cycles.

What do you think about it? Coincidence? Cash flow moving into markets in usual and well established way, fiscal reasons?
Sorry if I was a little bit far from your main aim in this journal, but maybe there's something similar, at least for an erratic Index as DAX.
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #22
  • Edited 3:00pm Jan 26, 2021 2:47pm | Edited 3:00pm
Hi,

sorry for the late reply, i have taken on a new project and have been busy with that , i will explain but first your comment, yes you are absolutely right , there are many cycles in the markets, seasonal, business. quarterly, impulse waves, minor waves etc etc , i am not familiar with the reasoning behind the seasonal,business and quarterly cycles.


The project i have embarked on was to create an expert advisor to trade impulse waves, during the research to create the ea i tested dozens and dozens of swing combinations and some interesting facts came out.

After finishing my research and many attempts, i finally made an ea that had a correct direction bias and is able to get the entry at the beginning of the wave with a success rate well over 80-90% on currencies and on index 90%+ , even though it was profitable , the profits were small as i had to set a small take profit and stop loss because these minor waves as quick as they go up they come down and i could not find a suitable solution to exit, most retails trade minor waves which explains the low success rate amongst them.

The second ea trades C impulse waves and 1,3,5 plus B waves , currently i am in the process of testing but its looking extremely promising with high risk reward ratios.

I will update on the progress.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #23
  • Jan 27, 2021 1:37am Jan 27, 2021 1:37am
Quoting pipfarm
Hi, sorry for the late reply, i have taken on a new project and have been busy with that , i will explain but first your comment, yes you are absolutely right , there are many cycles in the markets, seasonal, business. quarterly, impulse waves, minor waves etc etc , i am not familiar with the reasoning behind the seasonal,business and quarterly cycles. The project i have embarked on was to create an expert advisor to trade impulse waves, during the research to create the ea i tested dozens and dozens of swing combinations and some interesting facts...
Frankly I had some worries about your absence here, you know we live in difficult times these months, so I'm happy to see you here again.
OK, now understood and good job on your new project.
Waiting for your news.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #24
  • Jan 27, 2021 2:58am Jan 27, 2021 2:58am
Thanks for your concern,

i only venture out for grocery shopping once a week, holidays etc all on hold at the moment , do not see any family or friends, i am sure it is the same for you, but hopefully by March we are on course for 28 million vaccinations in the UK so restrictions should ease and a least with the vaccine there will be less chance of getting severe covid.

Have not heard much about the vaccine situation in Italy but i hope they are progressing as we are here.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #25
  • Jan 27, 2021 4:23am Jan 27, 2021 4:23am
Quoting pipfarm
Thanks for your concern, i only venture out for grocery shopping once a week, holidays etc all on hold at the moment , do not see any family or friends, i am sure it is the same for you, but hopefully by March we are on course for 28 million vaccinations in the UK so restrictions should ease and a least with the vaccine there will be less chance of getting severe covid. Have not heard much about the vaccine situation in Italy but i hope they are progressing as we are here.
Not doing well and fast as expected.
Only doctors, hospital and public services allowed to take vaccine so far and older people starting next month....
I'm younger to get vaccine in my middle age for now, hopefully before summer so I can take some holiday, but for now it's only a wishful thinking.

Let me know about your experiment EA, so I can retire sooner than expect
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #26
  • Jan 27, 2021 6:01am Jan 27, 2021 6:01am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Not doing well and fast as expected. Only doctors, hospital and public services allowed to take vaccine so far and older people starting next month.... I'm younger to get vaccine in my middle age for now, hopefully before summer so I can take some holiday, but for now it's only a wishful thinking. Let me know about your experiment EA, so I can retire sooner than expect

I used the ea on dax this morning , i saw the drop coming manually but the ea picked it off beautifully, 5 min drop for nearly 200 pips.

Very nice 5 minute impulse wave.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #27
  • Jan 27, 2021 2:36pm Jan 27, 2021 2:36pm
See my post in Gbpusd thread , ea and manually picked the top of wave 3 or 5 impulse wave down and a short on gold, fractal market structure with multiple timeframes



https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...usd?page=28730
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #28
  • Feb 9, 2021 4:46am Feb 9, 2021 4:46am
So we smashed it again on GBPUSD

Here is the analysis and charts i posted on GBPUSD only thread "https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13399150#post13399150"

""The 4h completed an abc short correction to the daily uptrend with the first leg of the continuation complete on the 1h

Looks like the first leg of the larger 1 hour up swing has completed and price is moving into a correction with the first minor leg in play currently , once this correction is over will start looking for longs again."

Before

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After
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Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #29
  • Edited 7:40am Feb 9, 2021 4:52am | Edited 7:40am
TIP OF THE DAY


Start your analysis from one of two perspectives

1. Look at it as waves

If you look at the market as waves , look at the next higher timeframe where your wave becomes a swing and part of the higher time frame wave. Make sure the swing is going against the wave so your starting off with a correction.

2. Look at it as swings

If you look at the market as swings, pick a swing in the opposite direction of the current wave (corrective) and drop down to a lower timeframe to find an entry point


Both are actually the same thing and achieve the same result the difference is in the starting point.

KEY POINT

Perspective 1 or 2 make sure the wave or swing you will trade is preceded by a corrective wave or swing
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #30
  • Edited 9:30am Feb 9, 2021 8:33am | Edited 9:30am
This is interesting, and not to far from my own point of view.
Im going through the video at the top while trading live.
I started it and what you said about the pillars is what convinced me that we share similar views, particularly about what you said about fundamental analysis in terms of technical analysis: From out point of view the technical is driving the fundamental. Or at least this is how we understand it best.
I think a lot of people seem put of by that kind of thinking, but to me it comes natural.
So lets see if there is anything i would like to comment on in the video.
And happy trading!

EDIT: Well 30 minutes into it, i cant see how anyone would put it any differently and i could not have said it better. That IS the basics yes.
Its lucid, its clear. There is no doubt about what you say. Everything you talk about anyone can pick up a chart and see it.
1 hour 10 minutes in. I can easily direct anyone recently beginning interested in technical analysis to your presentation. No matter the instrument or the timeframe.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #31
  • Feb 9, 2021 8:50am Feb 9, 2021 8:50am
Quoting yaed
This is interesting, and not to far from my own point of view. Im going through the video at the top while trading live. I started it and what you said about the pillars is what convinced me that we share similar views, particularly about what you said about fundamental analysis in terms of technical analysis: From out point of view the technical is driving the fundamental. Or at least this is how we understand it best. I think a lot of people seem put of by that kind of thinking, but to me it comes natural. So lets see if there is anything i would...
Hi Yaed

Technicals shows us the decisions of major buyers and sellers, whatever their reasons are for buying or selling we do not need to know if we understand market structure we just follow after their decision is made.

Thanks for your comment

if you have any more Qs i am happy to answer
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #32
  • Feb 9, 2021 12:09pm Feb 9, 2021 12:09pm
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} Hi Yaed Technicals shows us the decisions of major buyers and sellers, whatever their reasons are for buying or selling we do not need to know if we understand market structure we just follow after their decision is made. Thanks for your comment if you have any more Qs i am happy to answer
"Technicals shows us the decisions of major buyers and sellers, whatever their reasons are for buying or selling we do not need to know if we understand market structure we just follow after their decision is made"

If these are your personal words Pipfarm, congrats ....I never seen a so perfect and short synthesis of technical trading.

Welcome back my friend to the show that never ends!!! ......this quote is from Emerson, Lake & Palmer song
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #33
  • Edited 9:28pm Feb 9, 2021 1:03pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} Hi Yaed Technicals shows us the decisions of major buyers and sellers, whatever their reasons are for buying or selling we do not need to know if we understand market structure we just follow after their decision is made. Thanks for your comment if you have any more Qs i am happy to answer
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My approach is also very similar to yours.

Having retired as a financial journalist, the only skill I have is to depend upon my own sense of history and look at the micro and macro level pictures. However, I never covered financial trading markets and had no idea at all how to take part in it.

I made it up by looking for real traders and analysts who have at least 10 to 15 years of experience of looking at financial trading markets and products.
I bank upon their sense of history. I don't bother to analyze or study markets myself. Brixen is one of the FF traders among the list of 5 experts chosen.

Like any market, internal market forces compete and use supply and demand to manipulate prices. Again I have no expertise here. So I just focus on how liquidity is released and dried up. I do spend time on sourcing probability studies done by others (I don't know Excel) so that I can recognize the repeatable patterns when they happen during my trading.

I trade WS30 regularly and GDAX (as an alternative to WS30 slowing down like it happened last week) trying out ways to skim the volatility or lack of it.

I have kept sufficient money in my account to take care of the Drawdown.

I have made it a point not to overload the brain with information and cripple its decision-making ability.

I don't use any signal-giving indicators or do technical analysis (Moving averages). I don't follow any signals or trade recommendations by anyone.
My brain provides me the signals.

For me trading is teamwork and as a self-directed trader, I must focus on executing trades.

In other words, I remain the driver and not try to become a cleaner as well as a mechanic or engineer.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #34
  • Feb 11, 2021 3:08pm Feb 11, 2021 3:08pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} {image} My approach is also very similar to yours. Having retired as a financial journalist, the only skill I have is to depend upon my own sense of history and look at the micro and macro level pictures. However, I never covered financial trading markets and had no idea at all how to take part in it. I made it up by looking for real traders and analysts who have at least 10 to 15 years of experience of looking at financial trading markets and products. I bank upon their sense of history. I don't bother to analyze or study markets myself....

Answer to your question on Brixen's journal - chart and explanation included


First of all every market has at minimum a two swing/wave structure as you may have read from my other posts, A larger swing structure which is made of smaller swings and this is well documented by Dow and Elliott.

Using the basic but very powerful principles of trend, correction, range and structure it is possible do identify with a high level of certainty the position of one swing when looked at in relation to another.

Therefore in the comment to Brixen the larger degree swing on the 30 minute chart when looked at on the 4H was part of a corrective swing as it was moving in the opposite direction and had broken the support low of the previous upswing.

By using the knowledge gifted to us by Dow and Elliott and from my own extensive research and trading for over more than 20 years we know that corrective waves will generally have three swings, 2 of the swings moving in the direction of the correction will subdivide into a combination of 3 or 5 smaller swings, the third swing moving against the correction will have 3 swings minimum as it is a correction itself.

Therefore when i saw that the second 30 min swing was part of a corrective swing on the 4H i assumed there would be a third , so i waited until the smaller swings started to break down the correction to the correction and retest with the expectation that price would move down to complete the third of the third, at that point before the move i knew Brixen would be buying all the way down as that is his style.

Obviously there are some more advanced techniques that i use but as a general overview i hope what i have written is clear enough for you to understand.
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Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #35
  • Feb 12, 2021 12:27pm Feb 12, 2021 12:27pm
Latest trade on cable an epic occasion, called live on GPGUSD thead only, well before anyone else as was the the last trade short swing down c of abc and near enough to target.

30 minute abc correction moving against the 4H up swing and back in the direction of the daily


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Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #36
  • Feb 13, 2021 1:58am Feb 13, 2021 1:58am
Quoting pipfarm
Latest trade on cable an epic occasion, called live on GPGUSD thead only, well before anyone else as was the the last trade short swing down c of abc and near enough to target. 30 minute abc correction moving against the 4H up swing and back in the direction of the daily {image}
All these years I've seen many people come and go here on FF.
Some in search for a full time job, some for part.time, some for hobbies, some as investors, some only to feel the adrenaline of trading, and many in search for fast and easy money. But many disappeared after heavy drawdown or completeley erasing their trading accounts for 2, 3, 4 times, maybe more.

We have too much informations available, much more than we need, much more than ever, but the story remains the same: many traders loose their money while usual suspects, usual sharks made multibllionaires gains, every day, every year, no matter what is happening in the real world!

We are all small fish in these dangerous waters but Pipfarm, Dutchy, Islander and some other that unfortunately I don't know (cause I trade only DAX) are forever!
They are humble, always ready to help other traders, with their real time charts and not after the fact. But I guess few understand their real VALUE......

Brix, the survivor.
(Not a trader yet)
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #37
  • Feb 15, 2021 3:21am Feb 15, 2021 3:21am
Quoting pipfarm
Latest trade on cable an epic occasion, called live on GPGUSD thead only, well before anyone else as was the the last trade short swing down c of abc and near enough to target. 30 minute abc correction moving against the 4H up swing and back in the direction of the daily {image}

Thanks to Brixen for the kind words but do not fool yourself , you are an extremely good and knowledgeable trader.


Latest trade on cable went extremely well

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Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #38
  • Feb 16, 2021 2:23am Feb 16, 2021 2:23am
If price is time-fractal, why/how would it matter that a particular for example H1 candle is closed or not?

There are several reasons why i ask this, some of them i have considered many years, but lets let those out only in reference to you´r willingness or interest to discuss this.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #39
  • Feb 16, 2021 5:15am Feb 16, 2021 5:15am
Quoting yaed
If price is time-fractal, why/how would it matter that a particular for example H1 candle is closed or not? There are several reasons why i ask this, some of them i have considered many years, but lets let those out only in reference to you´r willingness or interest to discuss this.

Price travels in time and price creates the swings, the swings create the fractal market structure , to my knowledge there is no sure way to know if a swing has finished until a new swing begins.

The candles define the internal structure of the swings so candles must close before the swing is defined as price could keep moving in time therefore the swing would not be complete.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #40
  • Feb 16, 2021 8:54am Feb 16, 2021 8:54am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} Price travels in time and price creates the swings, the swings create the fractal market structure , to my knowledge there is no sure way to know if a swing has finished until a new swing begins. The candles define the internal structure of the swings so candles must close before the swing is defined as price could keep moving in time therefore the swing would not be complete.
Well ok.
My signature is: "Classified".
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