vsa with Malcolm

will a spike up on low volume will always go back down? not always, there is case that it will go higher after spike up on low volume, so therefore i will pay attention to my position especially today is NFP day.

So lets see where the price will go ... very interesting day ....

who is interested to read an old book of Wyckoff method? here is the book.

a good article about trading psychology ... must read.

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http://www.forex-central.net/forex-trading-losses.php

Forex trader psychology: coping with trading losses

In forex trading, creativity and the desire to take risks increase exponentially during winning streaks. This is generally not the case when your hard work and the time you've invested are not leading to profits. Stress and the taking of unnecessary risks are frequent side effects after a series of losing forex trades.

Seasoned professionals know that losing is part of the game. No trade is a "sure thing". With this in mind, they don't hesitate to accept losses, knowing that if they continue to take calculated risks, they will eventually be successful. The professional forex trader always questions his or her every move and precisely analyzes the reasons for which he or she opens a position.

Beginning forex traders do not realize that losses are a normal thing. After a loss, they feel frustrated. Generally, because of a lack of both knowledge and experience, the beginning trader takes profits too early and cuts losses too late. He or she then wants to catch up as quickly as possible, recouping losses by increasing lot sizes and thus the overall risk taken. He or she then believes that if his or her trading technique generated profits in the past, there is no reason to change the approach. Negative thinking and overconfidence distract the trader from the rigorous conduct necessary to successfully trade over the long term.

How you should cope with a loss

If you followed your forex trading plan but the trade went bad, note down in a trading diary what market conditions were and the reasons why you made this trade. Then, focus your mind on something else, it is important to be fully released from this loss and mentally ready to trade with a fresh perspective. After the markets have closed, you can review this particular trade. Your trading system might not be perfect for all market conditions. If this is true, you will need to identify the market conditions that best suit your system. A trending market, a consolidating market, volatility levels...

If you didn't follow the rules of your forex trading plan, you must rethink your approach and find out what is wrong. The problem isn't your method, the problem is you, since you didn't follow your strict guidelines. Identify your mistake so that you don't repeat it. The most common problems faced by traders are psychological problems.

"Revenge" is a negative state of mind which often occurs after you've suffered a loss. Impulsive acts, uncalculated risk taking, feelings of being all-powerful, etc... are the result of a vengeful mindset. Instead of helping you get out of a rut, it can contribute to your financial decline.
Fear is often an impulse for revenge. Because of this fear, you can end up taking significant risks. This is often detrimental, and not just in the case of forex trading. During the recovery of financial loss, it is important that you take calculated risks and think realistically. It takes time to recover a large loss. Do not make large trades during a state of panic. Working at a steady pace and keeping your trading positions stable will allow you to prevent negative emotions from affecting your trading.

Remain optimistic, methodical, patient and realistic.

Don't let your emotions dictate your actions, analyze the reasoning that guides your decisions by keeping a forex trading journal. Rationally weigh the pros and cons of each trade before you invest your time and your money. For a beginner, the initial focus shouldn't be on making profits but on not losing money! Forex trading isn't a game, it's a profession that's difficult to master as it requires specific psychological qualities.

well GBPUSD didnt move much since last night at US session .. my position still alive and my target is still 1.3533. Today is NFP day .. lets see how it will move.

I may be wrong...

Appreciate your posts, always great to see posts from other VSA'ers.

Personally I'm not expecting much today, the past 6 months or so NFP has been pretty muted, price may tick up and down aggressively for 10-15 pips but never really goes anywhere. That and plus yesterday saw a hefty move on USD I'm kinda thinking the market will need a rest today.

Do you use MT4? Just curious why the time on the bottom and price on the right are always missing from your charts.

Thanks Anotan, yes it is MT4, its just my template I use white color for foreground. Trading NFP is so tricky. Its better just to stay away before NFP news. we could analyze the price movement at NFP news and trade after the price settle.

2 scenarios for GBPUSD (TF H4) prior to NFP news ... better stay away before NFP and trade after the price settle (around 30 - 60 minutes after NFP news)

happy trading ...

JPY pairs have been running for 2 days, honestly I expected to get stopped out.

5 minutes to go, lets see what happens.

The question I ask is did the Big players get in a DAY EARLY

Could it be going up? - we will soon find out

EURCAD

Trigger number off 540x which price has rejected this level back on Feb 3rd.

Yesterday, the bar before Bar A was able to rally above the trigger number, but on Bar A sellers stepped in hard and took price down. Today price made a few attempts to push up but without success.

The thing about this, is that it is an older trigger number which the older they are they less accurate they tend to be so because of that I would say this trade is a little bit on the riskier side. Stops are in place, and the level is providing resistance at this moment, so what can you do?

That didn't last long I was taken out of most of my trades at 5407.

One more time on EC short.

Price is finally breaking down. One of the things I like is the past 3 days, for the most part, price has stayed above the daily open and today price was able to push below its open.

There was some some kind of weird support at .5377 that took some time for price to push through, which I couldn't find anything to suggest why there was support there. The next support I see is 5367, lets hope price blasts through it.

watch your positions carefully ... here is my prediction ... i may be wrong

Im completely out.

If i'm wrong dont say its because of me Anotan ... it was just my prediction after i saw the chart ... i dont trade EURCAD so i dont know his behavior.

I wouldn't do that.

Going into the trade I knew there was a lot of buying on Feb 4th and 5th, but at the same time there was a ton of sellers on Feb 9th. One of two things has to happen, either the bulls need to absorb the sellers or let sellers take price down and cover their positions and when I closed the position it looked like a strong chance they were ready to absorb the sellers.

That M30 bar looked very bullish and I had maxed out my margin and I didn't want to get caught. I just added a few shorts but the size is nothing close to compared to what I was holding.

George Soros took short positions in AUDUSD and made 60 Millions USD just over 18 hours. It was around 150 pips movement. 60 Millions USD - 150 pips, 1 pip worth 400K USD ... immense short positions totally around 4 yards (40K lots), its just my rough calculation but ... wow ....

here is the old article from may 2013

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/how...hours-20130507

Actually, do you know what makes him open so much "sell" position in terms of VSA? I cant think of strong fundamentals progress that motivates him to do so....(maybe im wrong as VSA requires huge experience and wide expertise to dissect such judgement.... i wander what malcolm can say about this....)
it reminds me of myself in the past.....it is just too much of a position executed ..... when i cant fight with those fundamental guys, and it makes me open too
many positions, without proper justification, it just makes the whole scenario mimicking gambling mindset.... that gives me sooo much restless/sleepless night especially when real money were put on the table..... but anyway,..... i thought, having significant distance gap between those execution would have spell some relief if he is still adamant..but..... it just my thoughts... maybe you can help to deliver this msg to him.... i really dont know.. life is short... live life the fullest man....

max out margin, its a risky position. If i see your position earlier it seems like your SL was too tight (we may sure about the direction but there is sometimes spike and this spike may take SL if it is too tight) ... if i may suggest please take a look at your money management again .. i dont like to use SL if i trade but every single position i take can survive even 3000 - 4000 pips movement against me, so i can trade with relax. With VSA we can minimize the risk if the price movement doesn't support my position i will close it manually (it means i'm totally wrong with my analysis).

If you want you can split your account, the bigger part is with very good MM to survive and steady growth account (80%) and the other account (20%) is for aggressive position. Every strike winning in aggressive account will be transferred to growth account (50%) and 50 % keep in aggressive account and so on.

just my thought ....