Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

https://goldswitzerland.com/the-grea...ce-distortion/

In this 17-minute MAMChat, Matterhorn principals Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg discuss the “great inflation debate” and the ongoing as well as open secret of price manipulation in the paper gold & silver markets.


Matthew addresses the key tailwinds behind the case for deflation as well as the unfolding trend toward inflationary conditions. Toward this end, he addresses the actual rather than distorted implications behind the CPI data as well as inflationary trends out of China’s supply chain. Ultimately, the inflation case centers around extreme currency creation from central banks, who are pivoting from direct lending to direct spending, all of which point toward increased money velocity and inevitable inflation.

Gold, of course, has been rising even in a deflationary background, and will fair even better as inflation unfolds. Either way, deflation or inflation, the cat is out of the bag as to currency debasement as more investors recognize the limits of central bank miracle solutions.

The global banks fear rising gold prices as evidence of their failed monetary experiments. Their efforts to artificially control the price of gold and silver in the paper and futures markets are thus desperate attempts to curtail gold and silver’s natural price growth.

Toward this end, Egon sheds greater light on the mechanizations employed by the major players in the futures market and gold trade to distort natural price discovery in the precious metals space. Ultimately, informed investors in physical gold and silver can avoid anxiety and ensure wealth preservation by holding physical assets which stand the test of time (as well as headlines) in a global fiat system losing credibility by the day.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...m_campaign=RSS

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
This will have a long-lasting structural impact in ending the dominance of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Over the past years, the U.S. set out to address inequities in the global trade environment by imposing tariffs and sanctions on various countries from China to Mexico and Canada with the rewriting of the North American Free Trade Agreement into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Even the countries in the European Union were affected. In addition, Washington implemented sanctions against Russia in 2014 in response to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, and more recently against Iran and Venezuela, effectively using the dollar’s role at the center of global trade and finance to force compliance of other nations. These actions impacted nations beyond those directly targeted by the U.S. action, and today many governments around the world are taking countervailing steps to remove their reliance on the dollar-based global trade and finance system that has reigned since 1944.

In November, 15 Asian countries, comprising 30% of global GDP, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), creating a free-trade zone among the signatories. This agreement attempts to provide gains to trading within the regional partnership through reduction of trade and investment barriers, and increased incentives for economic integration. It is noteworthy that RCEP came about without participation of either the U.S. or Europe, and has effectively created the world’s largest trading bloc, according to the Rand Corp. Beyond the obvious benefits for economic growth in the region, a more-subtle byproduct of this agreement is to focus on bilateral settlement of trade, effectively removing the dollar as the standard unit of transaction for regional trade, according to economist and geopolitical analyst Peter Koenig, a veteran of more than 30 years with the World Bank. Liu Xiaochun, deputy dean of the Shanghai New Finance Research Institute, recently furthered this idea, stating, “Under RCEP, currency choices for regional settlement in trade, investment and financing will increase significantly for the yuan, yen, Singapore dollar and Hong Kong dollar.” Liu’s comments were posted to the China Finance 40 Forum, a think tank comprising senior Chinese regulatory officials and financial experts.

Asia is not the only region taking steps to disentangle itself from the U.S. dollar standard in global trade and payments. The European Commission, the executive branch of the 27-country European Union (EU), released a communication explicitly stating the goal to strengthen the “international role of the euro.” This goal would “help achieve globally shared goals such as the resilience of the international monetary system, a more stable and diversified global currency system, and a broader choice for market operators.”5 The communication also highlights the use of sanctions by other countries, which hurt domestic EU interests, as an additional reason for taking action to make the EU more autonomous in the global trade-and-payments infrastructure. This document outlines specific action items to help move the EU in this direction of more autonomy from the current dollar-centric system. The implementation of a digital finance strategy will be a key component of this new EU strategy, including work on a retail central bank digital currency available to the general public.
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), the largest global payment settlement network, has already experienced drop-off in dollar transactions in its most-recent readings. It is interesting that this occurred after the implementation of RCEP, although the timing also comes in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic disruptions. (Figure 1)

The dollar was already contending with structural headwinds. One is the large stock of international savings on deposit and invested in the U.S. A decline in the value of the dollar risks creating a negative feedback loop where hedging and capital outflows can exacerbate the dollar’s decline. Another is the weakening fundamental picture for the dollar due to America’s widening of the current account deficit and a growing budget deficit. These headwinds are likely to persist for the foreseeable future – not to mention being exacerbated by the aforementioned regional trade agreements and international policy actions.
For the postwar period, the United States wielded the dollar’s central role in global trade and finance to its advantage, trying to even the playing field for trading relationships and as a sanctioning facility. The end of this powerful, unipolar advantage might be at hand. The pendulum is swinging in the direction of a new, multipolar world. Countries are reclaiming autonomy in global trade, payments and finance. With the implementation of more regional trade agreements with local currency settlements, the dollar’s once-dominant role in global finance likely will continue to erode.

As the global trade-and-payments systems move away from a single-currency standard, the U.S. dollar, to a bilateral exchange framework, countries that are the most productive, most innovative or offer the most competitive goods and services will see their currencies in greater demand. This change is coming, and we should be ready for the change as it comes.

Hello Unicorn

We need to open up a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK Demo trading account.

The challenge will be for you to make $7500.00 US Dollars in net profits by March 31, 2021.

Then your parents will open an account in their name and you will be given a limited power of attorney to trade their US Dollars.

You will charge them a 20% performance fee after you make them $7500 US Dollars.

They will then pay you $1500 US Dollars and they will net $6000 before income taxes. They can deduct as an expense the $1500 US Dollars that they paid to you.

Unicorn11

1. Status:
2. Membership Denied

1. Last Online:
2. Jan 28, 2021

1. Using Local Time:
2. 10:35am

1. Joined Forex Factory:
2. Jan 2021

Oh my goodness. Forex Factory has no sense of humor. Marisa is my special 8 year old friend. Her father and myself have been friends for many years.

I visited their home on my 77TH birthday and offered to teach Marisa (Unicorn11) on a FXCM UK Demo account of $50,000 US Dollars how to trade Forex.

Her father was in agreement. Of course I was the one making all the Forex trades in order to start to teach her.

Since January 28, 2021 her posts to me have not appeared. Her father sent a private request to the site's administrator who is a good and fair man.

However now today we discover that her membership was denied. Life goes on. So will she try to register again or will she just move on ? Stay tuned to see the next chapter of my relationship with Forex Factory which is without question the best Forex website in the world.


Bruce

1. First Post: May 27, 2008 3:46am | Edited May 30, 2008 9:29pm

1. https://cdn-assets.faireconomy.media...tar60357_7.gif eneloop
2. | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Senior Member | 560 Posts

Welcome!

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Come here to join us to gain the edge will give you much much better chance to success!

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We could discuss any currency here and also my aim is to have this thread focused on learning, sharing and teaching.

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10 Trading Rules for Successful Traders
1. Limit your losses.
2. Let your profits run.
3. Keep position sizes within reason.
4. Know your risk-reward ration.
5. Be adequately capitalised.
6. Dont fight the trend.
7. Never add to losing positions. Dont average out.
8. Know market expectations.
9. Learn from your mistakes keep a trading journal.
10. Have a maximum loss or retracement in profits.


For beginners, please read this free Forex education material and learn to be a successful trader: www.BabyPips.com

And also you are advised to read these excellent books:
1. Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies To Profit from Market Swings (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover) - by Kathy Lien

2. Technical Analysis of the Currency Market: Classic Techniques for Profiting from Market Swings and Trader Sentiment (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover) By Boris Schlossberg

3.High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market By Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien


You can preview the 1st and 3rd books here:
http://books.google.com.my/books?id=...sec=frontcover

http://books.google.com.my/books?id=...+lien%22&psp=1

The Essence of the 3rd book is here:
1. Never let a winner turn into a loser
2. Logic wins, impulse kills
3. Never risk more than 2% per trade
4. Trigger fundamentally, enter and exit technically
5. Always pair strong with weak
6. Being right but being early simply mean you are wrong
7. Know the difference between scaling in and adding to a loser
8. What is mathematically optimal is psychologically impossible
9. Risk can be and is predetermined but reward is unpredictable
10. No excuses, ever

BEWARE:
Why Currency Trading Is Not For Everyone?
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Remember, you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, which means that you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. If you have any doubts, it is advisable to seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

RISK WARNING: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your monetary objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You may be liable for losses that exceed the amount of margin that you post. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.

DISCLAIMER
T.A.Y.O.R ==> è TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!

All resources are for Educational Purposes Only.

Investing and Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. Before deciding to invest or trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Investors and Traders should consult with a professional financial advisor for the effects of active investing.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mi...ops+to+zero%29

The reason for this plunge in funding needs is because the Treasury now expects that it simply won't need to borrow as much debt as the end-of-March cash balance held in the Treasury General Account (TGA, which is simply the Treasury's cash balance held at the Fed) would plunge to just $800 billion, down a record $929BN from $1.729 trillion at Dec 31, 2020 (as an aside, the reason why the cash was so high as year end is because the Treasury never got around to actually disbursing the latest stimulus package in December, and it's also why as the Treasury said "the decrease in privately-held net marketable borrowing is primarily driven by a higher beginning-of-January cash balance as a result of lower-than-assumed expenditures.")

In other words, had Trump used up roughly $1 trillion in cash the Treasury had previously budgeted for spending on fiscal stimulus, there would be no surprises today, and instead of the cash balance dropping to $800BN in this quarter, it would have done so last quarter (we discussed this last November in "The 2021 Liquidity Supernova: Step Aside Fed - US Treasury Will Unleash $1.3 Trillion In Liquidity"). Instead, the Treasury now expects the decline in the cash balance this quarter - which is being spent to fund last December's fiscal stimulus - to be the main driver of funding needs.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=slWda7OQ

It doesn't end there, because one quarter later, the Treasury expects to borrow just $95BN - the lowest in two years quarters - and finish the June quarter with a cash balance of only $500BN, a reduction of $300BN for the quarter, the lowest in six quarters and less than 30% of the average cash balance at the end of the latest three quarters ($1.74BN).

Looking beyond that, we have to go back to an analysis we put together back in November, which cited calculations from Morgan Stanley, according to which unless the debt ceiling deadline - which this year falls on Aug 1, 2021 - is extended well in advance, starting on this date, the US Treasury will not be able to issue any additional debt above and beyond what it needs to cover existing debt obligations. However, what few may be aware of, is that there is a clause written into the law that prohibits the TGA from rising above levels prior to the debt ceiling deadline, which was in 2019.

This means that based on the 2019 debt ceiling, the Treasury cash will need to fall even more, down to just $200 billion by August 1, and as the chart from MS below shows, depending on the upcoming political fight over the debt ceiling, it could end up being quite a mess.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=3aM9bpgw

Said otherwise, the market is about to see a flood of $800BN in extra liquidity over the next 6 weeks, and a total of $1.1 trillion in the next 10 weeks, and then potentially another $300 billion in the subsequent two months. With the TGA cash currently at just under $1.6 trillion, it means that the US Treasury may unlock as much as $1.4 trillion in liquidity over the next 6 months, nearly double the liquidity coming from the Fed over the same time period which will be $720 billion ($120BN x 6 months)!

This, not too put it lightly, is a huge deal with major market implications (and is why three months ago we said to "buy everything ahead of an unprecedented dollar devaluation orgy" simply based on this analysis).

First, recall that one of the early (and completely false) reasons cited for the Sept 2019 repo crash, was the modest spike in Treasury cash balances around that time, which also resulted in substantial reserve drain among banks (mostly JPMorgan) which were desperate for more QE. As a result, we almost immediately got "NOT QE" (which, of course, was absolutely QE) and hundreds of billions of reserves were injected into the system by the Fed but not before markets had to tumble to spur the Federal Reserve into acting.

Well, what is happening now is just the opposite and many, many times bigger, as almost one trillion reserves are about to be injected into the system as cash is drained from the Treasury's account at the Fed. As we said on Monday, "as Treasury cash balances plunge, banks will see their reserve levels soar by roughly $900 billion this quarter, a move that will lead to significant risk asset upside if previous instances of reserves growth are any indication."
Second, there are major implications for the rates market where the recent flood of bill issuance is set to hit a brick wall: as we said on MOnday, the plunge in short-term debt (Bill) issuance - since there will no longer be an urgent need to keep cash balances in the $1+ trillion range - will compress short-term spreads (effective FF through 3M) to zero - or even negative - as there is suddenly a flood of liquidity which could prompt the Fed to engage the fixed-rate borrowing facility or even nudging the IOER higher. Indeed, on Friday we saw just this move as the 2Y TSY dropped to the lowest yield on record.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=vg3lwscC

Those looking for more details can read our November preview of this event ("The 2021 Liquidity Supernova: Step Aside Fed - US Treasury Will Unleash $1.3 Trillion In Liquidity"), or read the below explanation from Larry McDonald, author of The Bear Traps Report, who last week put together an exhaustive summary of the implications of the TGA plunge.

Again What is the TGA? The US Treasury's General Account
The TGA is the mechanism through which Treasury makes payments. It's the checking account through which the government makes all its payments. This checking account is located at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It's where tax payments are deposited and where funds from Treasury debt auctions are collected. So when the TGA changes, that affects deposits at the Federal Reserve. Ultimately, monetary policy, and Quantitative Easing, is conducted through the TGA. It's important. Of course, last year the TGA grew. It moved up from its usual range of $300 million/$500 million to, since May, well over $1 trillion. The thought had been that $1 trillion would be released into the economy to stimulate it prior to the November election. Didn't happen. Congress stalled.

Go Big or Go Home?
Enter "Go Big or Go Home" Yellen. What's she gonna do now? There will be another Covid relief bill of some kind. She'll be the one cutting the checks through the TGA. This will release money out of the TGA and that means there will be a lot more money in the system. Yellen has $1 trillion burning a hole through her pocket. Additionally, QE is pumping money in at $120 billion clips a month. The combo of a near $1 trillion check and $120 billion monthly QE is the monetary equivalent of eating a banana split after downing an Italian hero sandwich. The market will be stuffed with reserves.
The money will in part be put into the short end of the curve (already anticipated as we can see in super low LIBOR recently, and low T-Bill yields etc.). Some of the tidal wave of money will find its way into stocks and commodities. Some will find its way to higher prices for goods and services. This is the mirror opposite of 2018/2019 when traders fretted that treasury issuance would overwhelm their desks. This led to higher rates and a higher dollar... The 2019 events drama reached its September 2019 climax when the Fed was forced to introduce QE light. What an embarrassment, after pounding the table for 2 years on the wonders of committed balance sheet REDUCTION, up to $50B a month in Q1 2019, they reversed 2x. First in January 2019 by stopping the expansion, THEN again in September 2019 by restarting QE. Reflation assets (EM, global cyclicals ripped higher from Sept to the start of Covid risk in Feb 2020). Both times the beast inside the market reversed the academics at the Fed. Traders > educators in this case.
So now there will be mind-boggling liquidity, no vig in the front end, and a weaker dollar to boot. Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to fiat currencies, but fiat currencies are in a race to the bottom. Given the upcoming drawdown of the $1 trillion in the TGA , it's a race the US is likely to win.
Recap with more Complexity, Digging Deeper

One of the questions hanging over asset markets going into 2021 was what would happen to the TGA account. The TGA is the Treasury's General Account which is how the Treasury makes payments. As we saw last year, the TGA was built up to levels much higher than they traditionally get to. In the past, the level of the TGA has traditionally been between $300-500 billion. Currently, and pretty much since May of last year, the TGA has been over $1 trillion, which is well above its historical norm.

Going back to Q3 of 2020 there was a lot of speculation that the previous administration would use the massive levels of TGA to get more stimulus into the economy before the elections in November. However, that never really transpired and more covid relief was not passed by congress until after the election.
This setup the question for Secretary Yellen in terms of how she would manage the TGA, especially into the likelihood of another covid relief bill. The market has gotten its answer as Yellen and the Treasury plan to draw down the TGA balance back to more historical levels. The consequences of this are simple, a lot more reserves in the system. The combination of Fed QE running at $120 billion a month and around a trillion-dollar drawdown in the TGA level means that the levels of reserves in the system will be massive.

The combination of less short term issuance and massive QE will continue to put pressure on front end yields. This has been seen in very low LIBOR settings, low T-bill yields, and a lower setting in the effective fed funds rate. This pressure on the front end will continue to come especially in light of less front end issuance as the Treasury draws down their TGA balance.

The market in the first quarter of this year is basically setting up for the inverse of 2018/2019, where funding markets have begun to get stretched. The story in 2018/19 was that Treasury issuance would overwhelm the market and lead to this crowding out of assets as dealers had to move funding to take down treasuries. Now, the problem is flipped. There are so many reserves in the system already from the Fed's QE, and now it is going to get another increase via the TGA. So if 2018/19 was the story of issuance crowding out the market and putting pressure on funding markets which led to a higher dollar, this rendition could lead to the opposite.

With that said, we think the correlation between net issuance and asset prices is a bit overstated. Yes, there will be a ton of liquidity on the back of these moves from Treasury, but in terms of marginal drivers, it will matter most in funding markets and the front end of the treasury curve. The other part of this is, this UST funding announcement doesn't include the impact of whatever $1.9tln will come from the White House and congress.

Overall: the story is that reserves are everywhere and more are coming. In theory, over the near term, we are setting up for an inverse of 2018/19, which means front-end yields, funding markets etc. will be flushed and liquidity in the system will be at very high levels.

So while the bullish case is clearly there - after all a $1.1 trillion reserve injection all but assures higher risk prices, the only question is by how much, some - such as JPM's Nick Panigirtzoglou - have taken on a more hedged position, even though even the JPM admits that a $800BN spike in reserves in just two months would be a major market event...

1. The US Treasury signaled this week a strong intention to reduce its Treasury General Account (TGA) balance at the Fed, from its current level of close to $1.6tr to $500bn by mid-2021.
2. Such a sharp decline would mechanically bolster the liquidity in the US banking system, i.e. the amount of reserves, by $1.1tr by mid year

... noting that "a halving in the TGA in just under two months would be a significant decline, in particular given the slow conversion of PPP loans to grants thus far with just over $100bn converted between October and mid-January."

Yet within this broader tidal wave in reserves, Panigirtzoglou believes that the immediate impact will be relatively modest, and explains why below, first focusing on his view of narrow vs broad liquidity "plumbing" dynamics in the market (which differ substantially from those of repo god Zoltan Pozsar so take them with a giant grain of salt)...

What are the implications for liquidity from a prospective large reduction in the TGA balance over the coming months? We argued before that liquidity should be split into two different components: 1) narrow or banking sector liquidity, which is created by the injection of excess reserves into the banking system; and 2) broader liquidity or money supply, which is the amount of cash or deposits held by the non-bank sectors of the economy such as households, non-financial corporations and financial intermediaries such as asset managers, pension funds and insurance companies. This broad liquidity is in turn primarily a function of QE related purchases by central banks and bank lending to the real economy by commercial banks. In general, these two components of liquidity are interrelated but are not necessarily mechanically linked and are thus distinct. For example, QE bond purchases, by injecting reserves into the banking system, increase narrow liquidity, but they do not necessarily increase broad money supply. Bond purchases can result in an increase in money supply either directly, e.g. if the central bank buys bonds from a non-bank entity such as a pension fund, this automatically expands the assets (reserves) and liabilities (deposits) of the banking system; or indirectly, when central banks' quantitative measures induce higher bank lending in the economy.
... and then expands this analytics framework to how $1.1 trillion in reserves will impact assets:
A sharp decline in the TGA balance and the resulted $1.1tr increase in the stock of reserves in the US banking system would bolster banking sector liquidity i.e. narrow liquidity but will have no direct implications for broad liquidity, i.e. the cash balances of non-bank investors as captured by money supply. This is because a decline in the TGA balance would have no overall impact on the size of commercial bank’s balance sheet as it would effectively replace government debt with reserves in commercial bank’s asset side and TGA balances with reserves in the Fed’s liability side. These reserves or narrow liquidity reflect the amount of reserves commercial banks have with central banks in excess of what they would need to meet usual liquidity needs. Given that the banking system cannot get rid of reserves in aggregate, these zero yielding reserves become the “hot potato” that banks try to pass to other each until the relative pricing across money market instruments is adjusted enough to remove the incentive for banks to get rid of these reserves. In other words, narrow liquidity tends to reverberate within the money market space and suppress yields at the front end of the yield curve with little implication for the longer end of the yield curve or other asset classes such as equities.

Needless to say, we completely disagree here and merely bring up the historical record: the Sept 2019 repo crash first spiked a violent market correction and only then did the Fed conceded to inject more liquidity. It stands to reason that the equity response now will be the opposite as we are now facing a mirror image of the liquidity picture in 2019. In any case, going back to the JPM quant:
But even with the money market space, given the US banking system is already flooded with $3.2tr of reserves, well above a neutral level which we envisage at below $2tr, an additional $1.1tr of reserves would not make much difference in the current conjuncture. Indeed, after the sharp increase in reserves during 1H20, volatility in Fed funds – IOER spreads and SOFR – IOER spreads have already significantly reduced (Figure 2). The additional injection is likely to put some downward pressure on these rates to grind toward the zero lower bound of the Feds funds target range, supporting somewhat demand for shorter-dated Treasuries as banks seek some yield and duration. However, our projections for the global bond supply-demand balance in 2021 already incorporated only a relatively modest deterioration in G4 commercial bank demand from last year’s record levels.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=HeGpzng1

Summarizing JPM's view, we find it surprisingly restrained in its optimistic assessment...
In all, we see little impact from a prospective TGA balance reduction on broad liquidity and thus on other asset classes outside money markets or the front end of the UST yield curve. And the actual path of the TGA decline may differ from the Treasury’s forecasts not least as they do not potential additional fiscal stimulus into the projection.

... then again it comes from the same JPM analyst who has been desperately trying to talk down bitcoin for the past 4 months, most recently just two weeks ago. Well, with bitcoin hitting $41,000 this morning and all other cryptos at all time highs, not only have those who listened to Panigirtzoglou worse off, but maybe Nick has become the "big JPM fade". In any case, we are confident that it is only a matter of time before his Croatian colleague, the permabullish Marko Kolanovic takes the other side of the euphoria trade from Panigirtzoglou... as would we by the way.
In any case, with $1.1 trillion about to hit the market, perhaps now is not the time for nuance and instead a more shotgun approach is appropriate, which is why we like Larry McDonald's take as it cuts to the chase, and more importantly, is correct:
The combo of a near $1 trillion check and $120 billion monthly QE is the monetary equivalent of eating a banana split after downing an Italian hero sandwich. The market will be stuffed with reserves.

Of this we are certain. What does remain an open question is at what S&P level - 4,000? 4,500? moar? - will the Fed finally realize what it and the Treasury have done, and intervene by warning markets that it is about to pull its pedal off the gas, especially with a chorus of dovish, establishment progressive economists such as Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard now warning that a $1.9 trillion stimulus could overheat the economy (yes, democrats warning of such a thing as too much stimulus - now we've seen it all). In fact, the next big risk is increasingly shaping up as a hawkish reversal by the Fed some time around July/August, when the Treasury cash balance tumbles to $200BN or so and when the S&P is in the the low to mid-4000s...

1. Post 1
2. Cleanup
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4. First Post: Nov 20, 2018 5:15pm

1. https://cdn-assets.faireconomy.media...ar727152_1.gif ForestParkFX
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2018 | 7 Posts

Every Forex trader should be up to date with the latest news on foreign exchange markets. In fact, all traders should be well versed with the latest trading concepts in the industry, changes in regulation, new trading platforms that are available and the tools and resources that they can leverage. Knowledge is power and it is important to arm yourself with as much knowledge as you can each day when you enter into the market. A reliable Forex news site will keep you informed so that you are not caught by surprise when there is a major market movement.

Below are 9 Forex sites we review each day and believe any serious trader should. The resources offered on these sites can range from Forex charting software, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, trading education videos, and articles from experienced industry professionals. There are forums on most of these websites where other traders share their knowledge in order to help their fellow traders improve their trading skills.

ForexFactory.com
Forex Factory provides current and up to date news that would affect a trading session. News releases and key indicators are depicted in a unique color-coded system in order to illustrate the importance of the information. This is a great feature that allows an FX trader to hone in on the most important information, while ignoring information that is less likely to materially move the markets. FX traders will find a robust forum on this website – which will cover the various trading aspects that are important in Forex trading and related markets. The Forex Factory trading forum is really what attracts a lot of people to their website, and is one of the most active forums on the internet for Forex trading.

FXStreet.com
This is a leading independent website that is dedicated to the Forex market. The company is headquartered in Spain and was established in 2000. In fact, the website provides objective and high-quality content to traders from all parts of the globe. Visitors can find real-time rates and charts, an economic calendar, a forex news feed, educational content, currencies at a glance, and interactive webinars. FX Street is an excellent website because they bring in top-rated Forex experts across the world to provide analysis and commentary to help readers better understand the market, make more informed trading decisions and become more confident in their Forex trading. Even though the main website is in English, the content is translated to 15 other languages including Spanish.

DailyForex.com
DailyForex was established out of a strong need for a Forex news site that provides all the important information for Forex traders to prepare for, and trade through economic releases and related news events. On DailyForex, traders will find the latest market information as well as an in-depth review of Forex brokers, online/offline forex courses, signal providers, and popular Forex products . They provide clear and easy to use tools for new and experienced Forex traders and enable them to make more educated decisions when choosing a reliable Forex service.

DailyFX.com
This site provides news coverage at a global level under categories such as daily briefing, market news, forecasts, and US Dollar index. DailyFX also provides important information dedicated to currency pairs such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, etc. In fact, the dedicated section for US Dollar is quite handy to Forex traders as many of the major currency pairs contain the US Dollar. The news and analysis reports available in this section are the most useful feature. FX traders will find actionable trade ideas in advance of the markets moving, which can be considered and applied.

FinViz.com
This is a Forex trading research platform that provides powerful technical and fundamental tools for traders and investors. The main aim of the site is to offer superior visualization aids, financial analysis, and research. The site is free but there is also a premium service – where you will have access to intraday charts, real-time data, no ad interruptions, fundamental charts, and alerts. The intuitive interface of the site offers a comprehensive view of the stock market all-in-one platform. The trader can have a quick look at both the performance and condition of the entire market. Their news section is broken into two columns: traditional news outlets such as CNN, Yahoo News, CNBC on the left and trading blogs such as ZeroHedge on the right. The news section refreshes automatically so Forex traders do not miss any news that could impact the markets.

FXempire.com
FX Empire is a leading global financial news portal assisting novice and experienced Forex traders to become successful at what they do. In fact, the site offers up to date market news, analysis, and financial news from across the globe. The site covers all asset classes and is translated into 21 languages including English, Spanish, French. Forex traders will also find a new cryptocurrency section on the site where they can learn about Ethereum, Bitcoin and many of the other large cryptocurrencies. The main goal of the news portal is to deliver the necessary data and information to their readers across the globe. FX Empire has been delivering Forex news to FX traders for more than 6 years.

MarketPulse.com
MarketPulse.com is a Forex, commodities, and global indices analysis and news portal. They offer timely and informative information on technical analysis, macroeconomic trends, and worldwide events that will have a direct impact on the financial markets. The company was established in 2006 by an expert team of securities analysts and since inception has grown rapidly. The site is 100% free to its readership which makes it one of the top Forex news websites. The website provides insightful commentaries on a daily basis with full-time coverage of the world’s largest financial markets.

ForexLive.com
ForexLive offers real-time Forex news and analysis at the highest level. The company was founded in 2008 and has been a go-to source for both newbie and expert Forex traders since. They believe that all traders need succinct and relevant trading information to succeed in the markets. The news portal delivers such information 24 hours a day and 365 days a year, which with Forex markets being open 24 hours a day makes it a contender for the top Forex news site. They have one of the most responsive and experienced teams of FX analysts anywhere. Their expertise comes from 100 years of combined experience in the financial markets.

BabyPips.com
This Forex news portal helps beginner FX traders learn the foundational elements of trading in the Forex market. In fact, they are among the most frequented sites for people looking to first enter the FX market. The entire site is designed around education and it shows from the first visit to the site. The site offers educational content to help traders better understand how the Forex market works and offers them suggestions on how they can improve their Forex trading.. The company has been offering valuable trading information for more than a decade and is the go to place for newbie Forex traders.

Tracking news developments, understanding how the Forex market may respond to the release of data and preparing accordingly can help FX traders become more successful in their Forex trading. If you want to improve your Forex trading, then you should arm yourself with the knowledge about what is going on in the world, what is driving the markets, what to what out for and Serious Forex traders should use these sites as resources to make more informed trading decisions. The information contained in these top sites can help you.

—-
Justin D. Hertzberg, Esq. is the CEO of Forest Park FX, a globally regulated FX introdocing broker. Forest Park FX specializes in creating custom FX brokerage and trading solutions for retail traders, service providers, institutional traders, money managers and hedge funds. Forest Park FX offers a wide variety of value-adding services, including market access through the world’s top Forex brokers, cash back rebates for retail traders, built-to-specification trading algorithms, and the sale of trading tools and applications. For more information about Forest Park FX, please visit www.forestparkfx.com.

**Article was originally published at: https://forestparkfx.com/other/9-top...sites-reading/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1542752083

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cr...ops+to+zero%29

Creator Of The Bond VIX: The Coming "Monetary Hurricane" Is A White Swan
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg

BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, FEB 07, 2021 - 20:33

By Harley Bassman, creator of the MOVE index, aka the "VIX for bonds"
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=2CNCFeB5

Much is written about the Black Swan, famously described by Nassim Taleb in his 2001 book, Fooled by Randomness, and smartly summarized by Malcolm Gladwell in The New Yorker’s April 22, 2002 publication.

As a reminder, the Black Swan is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major impact on markets or society, and is often considered painfully obvious with the benefit of hindsight.

This begs the question of why we often ignore, to our detriment, the more commonplace White Swan. Daniel Kahneman won the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics for shining a bright light on how cognitive bias leads to poor decision making. Seemingly by nature, people overly worry about low probability events and diminish their concern for truly risky behaviors. For example, many people are terrified of being bitten by a shark or struck by lightning, but then hop into a taxi and fail to snap on their seat belt.

As the calendar rolled into 2020, the MOVE Index was under 50 while the more widely watched VIX Equity volatility index was kissing 12. There are no reasonable statistics to comprehend such levels, they are just too low. And of course, my in-box was bulging with investors wanting me to reveal the next “surprise” that would shock the market out of its doldrums. I could only reply that if I knew, it would (by definition) not be a surprise.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=ggNdIVyp

Notwithstanding that Bill Gates offered a TED Talk in 2014 on the risk of a Global pandemic, and that a dozen such science fiction movies were available on Netflix, indeed COVID-19 was a Black Swan surprise. What is no longer a surprise is the Government’s proposed Monetary and Fiscal solutions to the havoc that COVID has wreaked.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=-OPLAW8N

At this stage, discussing the merits of the Fed’s policies is pointless; it’s an activity best held in states where weed is legal. As pictured on the prior page, there seems to be no level of balance sheet expansion that is too high.

Not only is the FED employing QE (Quantitative Easing) to dampen an interest rate increase that would be extremely bothersome to our vastly over-leveraged economy, but they have signaled they will fund the expansion of Fiscal spending.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=ZXGOvPhJ

Again, a debate about whether this is good public policy is moot; a huge Fiscal impulse is coming, and it will be funded mostly by debt issued to the FED.
Economic purists will insist that this is not “money printing” since the US Treasury is independently selling bonds into the market via public auctions. Many of these bonds are purchased by Wall Street ‘primary dealers’ (sometimes referred to as Vampire Squids) who soon sell them to the FED for a small profit. Of course, this is “money printing” in the same way that one “borrows” beer at a Super Bowl party.

As a reminder, notwithstanding COVID, the financial road we are traveling has been paved with good intentions, especially by the FED; the pity is the expected result did not occur.

The GFC in 2008/09 revealed that the US had too much debt, both public as well as private. The FED recognized that there are only two ways out of a debt crisis – either default or inflate, with the caveat that inflation is simply a slow-motion default.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=YzISsXco

Since the market would not allow the FED to reduce its balance sheet via asset sales (or even the slow bleed of letting bonds mature), the alternate solution was to create inflation as a way to reduce the value of debt. This policy was reinforced by the FED’s most recent communications where they indicated they would not mind inflation rising above their 2.0% target (for a short time).

The original plan was for the FED’s largess to inflate middle class wages; instead, the inflation occurred in assets, most notably in Global Equities.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=6LCPMObT

When one hears hoof beats, look for horses not zebras. There is no reason to ruminate over exotic possibilities when the problems we face are quite clear. Once again, ignore the merits of the public policy response – what is important is that there is wide support from both the Democrats and Republicans to offer significant Fiscal relief supported by massive Monetary expansion.
Will this be inflationary – Yes; but it is unclear how soon.

I made the case in my December 2, 2020 commentary, ”The Wages of Fear”, that demographics will set ablaze the dry kindling of printed money sometime between 2023 to 2025; and nothing has occurred to change that prediction. What is clear is that a financial bubble is being inflated, and there is risk on both sides of the distribution. Ordinarily the bloviating pundits advise one to sell assets, or perhaps execute some sort of hedge such as buying puts or selling covered calls. They are looking in the wrong direction.

While I am not a stomping bull, the approaching monetary hurricane could well make the “surprise” a further rally in equities. Printed money should elevate stocks; either via a continued flow into assets, or into the pockets of consumers who will spend it and thus increase corporate profits. (Yes, higher taxes could be an offset, but let’s save that for another Commentary.)

As noted, inflation is an eventual certainty, so one should own real assets; and over the longest run stocks will hold their real value. Notwithstanding the Robinhood day traders, stock equity is an ownership right in a real company. Weimar Germany is the nightmare scenario for inflation; but contrary to expectations, stockholders were protected. While the German Papiermark vs. USD exchange rate exploded (4.2 Trillion per USD), the German Stock Index, currency adjusted into USD, held its value. As such, when faced with nominal inflation – Do not sell call options.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=brv8xaqr


Below is the “skew” of Implied Volatility (IVol) for options that expire in one-year for SPY – S&P 500 ETF, and before Game Stop, one of the market’s most actively traded securities. The path of this line details the IVol used in the pricing models for various strikes. The 100% dot is the current market level of 375 (or 3750 on the S&P 500 Index); similarly, 80% would be a strike of 300 while 120% would be a strike of 450.

The IVol for an at-the-money option of 23.0% is not unreasonable since SPY realized such a volatility as late as last September when the market stabilized near 350. Similarly, an IVol of 31% is not crazy for a strike of 300 since SPY had such a volatility when it was near that level last June.
What is anomalous is that the 450 strike sports an IVol of only 16.9%, a level not too far from the level realized from 2018 to 2019 - before COVID.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=KwvqeuVC

The blue line profiles the skew for options that expire in two years with Ivols of 28.50%, 23.0%, and 18.75% respectively for similar strike levels.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=Ey_UrYWm

Consider the results of the table above for two-year expiry options on SPY; is the risk of reaching the COVID lows (-36%) the same as a 20% rally by 2023 ? (Call px = Put px) I will not quibble with the put price as it offers “earthquake” insurance; but within the context of current events, the call price is too cheap.
By many measures the S&P 500 is expensive; in fact, the loudest pundits cite that we are in a “bubble”. I will submit those indicators are not false, but they ignore that the Fed’s lips are tightly wrapped around a larger financial balloon. The chart below maps the relative value of US equities to real interest rates; this is what supports my view that stocks are “fair”. However, if $1.9 Trillion of fiscal stimulus is funded by the Fed holding real interest rates below zero, the surprise will be north. As such, I want to be long the distant strike call options; not because I know I am right, but rather it is so inexpensive to be wrong.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=kXDqpIqv

Good morning Forex trader's

My friend and associate and client has opened a $25,000 US dollars account with Friedberg Direct.

The funds will be shown in Canadian dollars as I expect the Canadian dollar to become stronger over the next 11 months of 2021. So as profits are earned there is additional profits earned through the exchange rate between the US dollar and Canadian dollar.

I will post here on my thread all the trades done in live time along with screenshots of all the trades as they are made and also when they are closed.

In the future my posts here will lessen as all teaching and trading will be done on the new corporate website of the corporation.

Please post any questions on this thread while I am still actively posting.

Have a positive Forex trading week.


Bruce

Post# 9451 is NOT my account, WHO'S account is this???

ASHRAF MUHAMMAD
Canada

Good morning

It is or was your account. We have no more business together. You can never become a good Forex trader because you have no ability to follow instructions. All you have ever done is waste my time and you have never paid me one penny for all the time that I have given to you trying to help you. I do not run a charity service here. Regardless you have no business to tell me anything as we have no more business together. You made a mistake not putting in your stop loss and I asked you to call me and of course you did not and you appeared to be gone until your last post. So in closing good fortune and please stop posting on my thread as you are not welcome here because this thread is to learn from and to help people not to be negative and enter into useless discussions about whose account is whose.


Rule #2: Trading Only
Forex Factory is all about trading. Anything focused on the pursuit of trading profits is welcome; anything focused on something else is subject to removal. Keep in mind that Forex Factory is a global community, so controversial discussions (i.e., politics, religion) should be kept to a minimum. Additionally, the site should not be used to for personal agendas such as ego, drama, attention or revenge.


Bruce

https://goldswitzerland.com/the-big-...hings-in-life/

THE BIG THEMES IN PRECIOUS METALS, THE BEST THINGS IN LIFE

February 9, 2021

By Egon von Greyerz

Speaking recently with Palisades Gold Radio, Matterhorn Asset Management founder, Egon von Greyerz, addresses an array of pertinent questions concerning the gold & silver markets in these extraordinary times.

Egon discusses the declining purchasing power of the USD, the inevitable money creation foreseen by the Biden/Yellen duo, the interplay of inflationary and deflationary forces and the clear warning that too much debt and monetary support of the same, like too much of anything, is a toxic plan which never ends well.

Additionally, Egon sheds further light on the increasingly open secret of shameless interference by the bullion banks and BIS to artificially repress and distort the paper price of gold and silver in a totally distorted (and levered) futures market. Recent attempts to short-squeeze such manipulators by the Reddit crowd, though valiant and headline making, is near-term of little consequence given the staggering fire-power of the LBMA banks and the “criminally immune” BIS.

Ultimately, however, the macro setting of central bank over-reach and failed experimentalism confirms that the longer-term setting and direction for physical precious metals will continue its historical trend upwards, preserving wealth for investors who see the insurance rather than speculative role of gold and silver.

As, if not more importantly, Egon concludes that the best things in life cost very little. Once sound wealth preservation is calmly understood and achieved, the real wealth comes from enjoying (as well as helping) family and friends and other simple yet timeless joys.
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Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

Matterhorn Asset Management’s global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Matterhorn Asset Management is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 70 countries.
GoldSwitzerland.com
Contact Us

Articles may be republished if full credits are given with a link to GoldSwitzerland.com.

Good morning

Please take the time to watch the video. Your FUTURE will depend on listening and understanding and doing what you need to protect yourself and your financial assets.

Good Morning Mr Bruce, how can I manage TWO different accounts,, ending # 380( post# 9451) & 261?
# 380, it was you sir, who is managing, my account is 261, and I admit that I forgot to put stop loss., But we learn from our mistakes that's why we practice in DEMO. IF I am failed with one mistake, how about YOU, who is managing# 380( last three digits of the account ) in post# 9451????
As far as your teaching/mentoring is concerned, you NEVER taught me officially, whatever I learn from you was/is, ASKING questions here in this forum and I appreciate that you ANSWERED, so in that sense you are my teacher, BUT you NEVER trained me for 90 days or whatever you always promised and NEVER showed up. Being a religious people, we should fulfill our promises.
If you disagree, I can send you the post numbers.
You broke my heart calling me failure with one single mistake?????? Are you a good Mentor??? WHY people left you in the past, and still leaving like AWaheed???
If I am failed so called, people would question YOU and your system.
Where are your successful students making 5-10%ROI ???
I thought at the age of 76+, you might have idea to judge the right people. I NEVER lose heart, I made a mistake, but I am still IN, and I would come out with success, GOD willing. Sorry about my long post, you made me.
And ONE last thing, if I DON'T post here, WHO'S going to?????

It is very simple. You have never ever paid me anything. Send me an E Transfer for $250.00 Canadian to [email protected] and I will teach you further to April 15, 2021. After that I will tell you my report on your Forex trading skills.

As for everything else posted, I have no time to waste looking at anything. Your friend had paid me $550.00 by E Transfer and I told him 3 stocks to buy with two of them havving gone up 5 or 6 times what he paid. Monarch Gold MQR and HIVE. So again for FREE gave him stocks and he sold too early however he made money using my time and my brains and experience. I want nothing from him because he did not listen to me. So you see my points. Bye for now. I had also asked you to call me instead you air out our business here. That also is not correct.


Bruce

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ro...-held-by-etfs/

With the ongoing #SilverSqueeze and huge associated dollar inflows into silver-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), it is now time to look at which of these ETFs store their silver in the LBMA vaults in London, England, and to calculate how much physical silver these combined funds store in those London vaults.
These LBMA London vaults are run by seven vault operators which comprise three bullion banks JP Morgan, HSBC and ICBC Standard Bank – and four security firms – Brinks, Malca-Amit, Loomis and G4S.

While many eyes have been fixated on the mammoth iShares Silver Trust (SLV), that is only part of the picture, and there are 13 additional silver-backed ETFs that store their silver in London that people may not be aware of.

By calculating how much silver the ETFs hold in London , we can determine how much available physical silver remains in the London LBMA vaults that is not already held by these ETFs. This then gives an estimate of how much room these ETFs have before they hit a wall of not being able to source any more silver in the London vaults without having to import it or ship it in. And the answer, as you will see below, is not that much room at all.

Because out of the 1.08 billion ounces of silver (33,609 tonnes) that the LBMA claims is stored in the London vaults (as per latest LBMA data to end of December 2020), a whooping 83.3% or 28,007 tonnes (900.42 million ozs) is already accounted for by these ETFs. This is based on ETF holdings as of end of day 5 February 2021.

Add in another 22.22 million ozs (691.3 tonnes) of silver held by Bullion Vault (BV) and Gold Money (GM) in the same London vaults, and there are a massive 28,698 tonnes (or 922.65 million ozs) of silver accounted for in the combined ETFs and in the BV/GM holdings. That’s 85.4% of all the silver that the LBMA claims is in the London vaults.
https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs.../Table-1-1.png

ETFs / ETCs / Transparent holdings store 28,698 tonnes of Silver in LBMA London vaults, over 85% of all the silver in LBMA London. Sources – Provider websites
This leaves only 4,911 tonnes of silver from the LBMA total of 33,609 tonnes that is not already accounted for. That’s a mere 14.6% of total London vaulted silver stocks. The criticality of the situation was even more acute based on end of day data from 3 February 2021, when based on the same calculation approach, there was only 4,366.7 tonnes of silver in the LBMA vaults (13% of the total) that were not accounted for by silver ETF and other transparent silver holdings. On that day, a full 87% of all the silver in London was held the ETFs and other transparent holdings.

Reported Silver Holdings
Importantly, these holdings of Exchange Traded Product (ETP) silver inventories are part of reported silver bullion stocks. As the Silver Institute 2019 annual report (written by Refinitiv) explains:
“Identifiable bullion stocks can be separated into two categories: reported and unreported bullion stocks.

Reported stocks consist of industry, exchange, ETP and part of the government stock category.
Unreported stocks … consist mainly of government and custodian vaulted stocks.”
And notably, says the Silver Institute report, the unreported category is almost exclusively made up of custodian vaulted stocks of silver. According to Refinitiv:
“Terminal market inventory finds its way into Europe, driven by refiners off-loading their metal in times when investment demand is weak. The European and U.S. bullion banks in collaboration with major storage providers remain the main facilitators.”

Here, “terminal markets’ refers to commodity markets that are trading centres as opposed to production centres. When custodian vaulted stocks rise, says Refinitiv, it is “partly a reflection of weak investment demand more than anything else”. The converse is also true. When investment demand is strong, the unreported custodian vaulted stocks fall.

And where have we seen investment demand being strong right now? In the physical market of course, all the way from retail to wholesale to mints to refineries. So now is not a time when there will be “refiners off-loading their metal” into vaults because of weak investment demand. In fact the opposite is to be expected.

In short, strong investment demand leads to depleted unreported custodian vaulted stocks. And Exchange Traded Products have at all times to compete with the rest of the market for the pool of available silver in the London vaults of the storage providers.
Allocated Silver held by Wealth Sector

And we haven’t even factored in yet the allocated silver holdings that the wealth sector (investment institutions, family offices and High Net Worth individuals) hold in the LBMA London vaults, silver holdings which are also part of the unreported custodian vaulted stocks category.
And that, according to people I’ve talked to in the market, could be anywhere from 30 million and 50 million ozs (933 tonnes to 1,555 tonnes). Which would leave only between 3,300 tonnes and 3,900 tonnes of silver in the London LBMA vaults which is not held by ETFs and the wealth sector. And that is not a lot of silver for 14 ETFs to compete to secure.

To put this into perspective, over the 3 trading days from Friday 29 January – Tuesday 02 February, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) just by itself claims to have added 3415 tonnes of silver, of which 1,070 tonnes was on the Friday 29 January, 579 tonnes on Monday 01 February, and another 1765 tonnes on Tuesday 02 February. This 3415 tonnes equates to 14% of annual mine supply and 10% of all the silver that the LBMA claims is in London vaults.

Another 3-4 days of similar magnitude dollar inflows just into SLV would require SLV to source another 3000-4000 plus tonnes of silver, which is mathematically impossible based on the amount of silver said to be in the London vaults. This could cause the SLV to literally seize up and cause all the other silver ETFs with London storage to seize up too. This is assuming no new silver arriving into the London market in quantity at this time. Which is not an unrealistic assumption to make given that there is currently a global demand spike for physical silver. In other words, “terminal market” physical silver inventory would not be “finding its way into Europe” since global investment demand is strong, not weak.


Painting the Tape in Paper Silver
Which is why it now looks like the bullion banks torpedoed the COMEX / LBMA price of silver on Monday 1 February and Tuesday 2 February so as to paint the tape and attempt to break investor sentiment and prevent further inflows into the silver ETFs. But if that was the plan, the bullion banks didn’t succeed, since total ETF holdings only ebbed marginally over the rest of the week following the bullion bank price onslaught.

Its also important to remember that the LBMA data on silver vault stocks in London covers all forms of silver bars and silver coins held in the LBMA vaults, not just the large Good Delivery silver bars http://www.lbma.org.uk/gdl-silver-bar-specifications.

As the LBMA explains about its silver vault data:
“All physical forms of metal are included: large wholesale bars, coin, kilo bars and small bars.”
However, ETFs are limited by their prospectuses to only purchasing Good Delivery silver bars (which normally weigh 1000 oz each). Therefore, since the LBMA data covers all forms of silver bars and silver coins in the London vaults, the LBMA data of 33,609 tonnes total stock in London may be overstating how much of that is Good Delivery silver bars. Which means that the ETFs have even less leeway in sourcing silver inventory than would at first appear.

Note also that the Bank of England does not hold silver, because central banks do not hold silver at the Bank of England. In fact, central banks rarely if ever hold silver as a reserve asset. So unlike gold, bullion banks cannot borrow silver from central banks to augment supply and firefight demand.
Don’t forget also that professional investors and institutions hold huge quantities of unallocated ‘paper’ silver positions in the London LBMA market, in the form of claims against LBMA bullion banks for silver which is not readily available. This unallocated silver is really ‘silver credit’ or fractionally-backed / unbacked silver positions which have been created by the bullion banks to absorb demand that would otherwise have gone into physical.
As former LBMA CEO Stewart Murray euphemistically said in 2011: “various investors hold very substantial amounts unallocated gold and silver in the London vaults”. But what Murray failed to explain is that unallocated silver does not exist in a vault because it is not physical. It is a merely a paper claim on a bullion bank for a quantity of silver that the bank is obliged to find somewhere if the claimant happened to move to execute the claim.


The Squeeze is On
In short, the scarcity of available silver in the London LBMA vaults is far more advanced than most people think. And with 14 ETFs, and not just SLV, competing for available silver, the bullion banks and storage providers are now in a “Houston, we have a problem” mode. A problem which you will see from a quick review of these 14 silver-backed ETFs and Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) which claim they are fully physically backed with silver stored in LBMA vaults in London. First we will review all the other ETFs, and finally end with the big one SLV. The review below uses a similar framework to the 2017 BullionStar article “How many Silver Bars are in the LBMA Vaults in London?”, and uses some helpful updates last week from Daniel March.
https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs...1/02/AG-SQ.png

Alphabet Soup – London Silver ETFs
PHAG and PHPM – WisdomTree
PHAG / PHSP is the WisdomTree Physical Silver fund. It has two ticker codes as it trades on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) in US dollars (PHAG LN) and pounds sterling (PHSP LN). It’s the same product with two lines, so in this analysis is easier to refer to as PHAG.
PHAG was formerly known as ETFS Physical Silver until WisdomTree acquired the European business of ETF Securities in 2018. The silver custodian of PHAG is HSBC bank plc, London.

PHPM / PHPP is the WisdomTree Physical Precious Metals fund. PHPM /PHPP was formerly known as ETFS Physical PM Basket until the WisdomTree acquisition of ETF Securities European business. The silver custodian of PHAG is also HSBC bank plc, London. The WisdomTree Physical Precious Metals product also trades on the LSE in two currencies US dollars (PHPM LN) and pounds sterling (PHPP LN), but is easier to refer to here as PHPM.

As of end of day 5 February, WisdomTree claims the combined silver holdings of PHAG and PMPM total 99,460,478.5 ozs (3,093.64 tonnes) in the form of 102,667 silver bars. The bar list can be seen in XLS format here, ( a link to a zip file opens the latest xls).

The PHAg and PHPM silver is claimed to be split between HSBC’s London vault and Malca-Amit’s London vault, with 43,379,829.9 (1,349.29 tonnes) in the HSBC vault in the form of 44,620 silver bars, and 56,080,648.6 ozs (1,744.35 tonnes) in the Malca-Amit vault in the form of 58,047 silver bars.
Oddly, the WisdomTree website product pages say that PHAG holds 95,579,115 troy oz of silver, and PHPM holds 1,296,137 troy oz of silver, which is a combined total of 96,875,252 ozs, which is 2,585,226.5 ozs less than the combined total reported.

SSLV – Invesco
SSLV is the Invesco Physical Silver ETC. SSLV was formerly operated by ETF provider Source until Invesco acquired Source in 2017.
The custodian of SSLV is JPMorgan Chase Bank. The silver owned by SSLV is claimed to be in JP Morgan’s vault in London.
As of end of day 5 February 2021, SSLV claimed to hold 7,820,611.8 troy ozs of silver (243.25 tonnes) in the ‘JPM London V (VLT)’ vault in London, in the form of 8061 silver bars. The 5 February bar list is at the link here.
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33,609 tonnes of silver in London LBMA vaults – But ETFs now hold more than 28,000 of this total. Chart source – www.GoldChartsRUs.com updated with new ETF data
PMAG and PMPM – ETF Securities Australia
PMAG is the ETFS Physical Silver product. It is operated by ETF Securities Australia, and also known as ETPMAG. The custodian of the PMAG silver is JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, London.

PMPM is the ETFS Physical Precious Metal Basket. Its also operated by ETF Securities Australia, and also known as ETPMPM (Basket). The custodian of the PMPM silver is also JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, London.
PMAG and PMPM report this silver holdings in a combined report under ETFS Metal Securities Australia Limited. As of 4 February 2021, the latest dated report that has been uploaded to the ETFS Australia website, the combined silver holdings in London of PMAG and PMPM was 8,634,676.1 ozs (268.57 tonnes) in the form of 8,909 silver bars, all claimed to be held in the JP Morgan vault in London. The link to the bar list in XLS format is here.

SIVR and GLTR – Aberdeen Standard
SIVR is the Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF. GLTR is the Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF.
SIVR and GLTR were formerly operated by ETF Securities until Aberdeen Standard Investments acquired the US business of ETF Securities in 2018. The custodian of SIVR and the silver of GLTR is JP Morgan Chase Morgan Chase NA, London.

As of end of day 5 February 2021, SIVR claimed to hold 36,657,877.7 ozs of silver (1,140.21 tonnes) in the form of 37,537 silver bars. Currently, none of the silver of SIVR is held in JP Morgan’s London vault. It’s all claimed to be held in the London vaults of Brinks, Malca-Amit and Loomis. Specifically the SIVR bar list shows all the silver as being held in ‘Brinks Premier Park’, ‘Loomis Int (Viamat)’, and ‘Malca-Amit’.

This storage arrangement is however, very strange, since on 14 August 2020, the last physical audit of SIVR showed that all its silver was held in the JP Morgan vault in London, specifically at that time “32,712 London Good Delivery Silver Bars with a weight of 31,827,933.800 troy ounces”. That’s 989.98 tonnes of silver. See audit report here.

Then why is all of the SIVR silver now in the vaults of sub-custodians and none of the SIVR silver is in the vault of the custodian JP Morgan? Why did 989.98 tonnes of SLRV silver move out of the SIVR vault since 14 August 2020 and is now claimed to be in the vaults of 3 sub-custodians, Brinks, Malca-Amit and Loomis?

As of end of day 5 February 2021, GLTR claimed to hold 9,306,054.1 ozs of silver (289.46 tonnes) in the form of 9,548 silver bars. Currently, this silver is claimed to be stored in the JP Morgan London vault (about 92%) and a Malca-Amit vault (about 8%). Yet there is no recent physical audit report for the GLTR silver on the Aberdeen Standard website.

In total between them, SIVR and GLTR claim to hold 1,429.67 tonnes of silver in the LBMA London vaults.
SSLN – iShares
SSLN is the iShares Physical Silver ETC. The custodian of SSLN is JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, London Branch.

As of end of day 5 February 2021, SSLN claimed to hold 24,679,579.5 ozs of silver (767.64 tonnes) in 2 vaults in London, roughly split between the JP Morgan vault London (2/3) and the Malca Amit’s London vault (1/3). The exact figures being ‘JPM V’ vault with 16,947,579 ozs (17,387 silver bars), and Malca-Amit vault with 7,732,000.5 ozs (7,975 silver bars).

The SSLN bar list, which updates the same PDF file each day, can be seen at the link here.
XTrackers – Deutsche Asset Management – now called DWS
Deutsche Bank Asset Management (now called DWS) operates 5 DWS XTrackers which hold physical silver. These are known as the XTracker Physical Silver ETCs. A list of XTracker precious meals ETCs can be seen in the list here.

The custodian of the silver for all of these XTracker ETCs is JP Morgan Chase Bank NA, and the silver is claimed to be in the JP Morgan vault in London.
In total, as of end of day 5 February 2021, these 5 XTrackers hold 1,839.45 tonnes of silver in London. This figure is correct and is based on data directly from the DWS website and from a Deutsche daily Excel sheet of funds and holdings. There are no silver bar lists or audit reports on the DWS website, nor anywhere else.

The silver holdings of each of these XTrackers as of 5 February was as follows:
Xtrackers Physical Silver ETC : 2,334,322.7 ozs (72.61 tonnes)
Xtrackers Physical Silver ETC (EUR): This is the big one: 43,963,590.6 ozs (1,367.45 tonnes). This fund is also known by the ticker XAD6
Xtrackers Physical Silver EUR Hedged ETC: 9,091,742.5 ozs (282.79 tonnes)
Xtrackers IE Physical Silver ETC Securities: 3,363,569.56 ozs (104.62 tonnes)
Xtrackers IE Physical Silver EUR Hedged ETC Securities: 385,151.26 ozs (11.98 tonnes)


Ironically, the silver XTrackers can be complicated to keep ‘track’ of, as they are domiciled in a number of jurisdictions (UK and Ireland), trade on various exchanges (LSE and Xetra), trade in various currencies (USD and EUR), and have various metal entitlements per security depending on the particular ETC.
The Xtrackers IE Physical Silver ETC Securities may look like 2 separate XTrackers, but it’s not, because both have the same ISIN, and they just trade as XSLR on LSE, and XSLR on Xetra. So to reiterate, there are 5 silver XTrackers, not 6 as some people might initially think.

Excluding SLV, the other silver-backed ETFs which store their silver in London claim to hold a combined 7,642.23 tonnes of silver in London LBMA vaults, which is 27.2% of all ETF silver in London, 22.7% of all the silver said to be in the London LBMA vaults, and 37.5% of the silver claimed to be in SLV. So any discussion of the #SilverSqueeze must take into account these other 13 ETCs from a total of 6 providers.

Apart from SLV, the biggest silver ETFs which hold their silver in London are PHAG from Wisdomtree with 2974 tonnes, XAD6 XTracker from Deutsche with 1367.45 tonnes, and SIVR from Aberdeen with 1,140.21 tonnes. So next time someone mentions SLV, tell them about PHAG, SIVR, XAD6, and the other ETFs / ETCs.

Other Transparent Silver Holdings
As mentioned above, there are some other silver holdings in the LBMA London vaults which are transparent since they are publicly reported on. These are the silver holdings of customers of Bullion Vault (an LBMA member) and Gold Money. As of 5 February, the reported silver holdings of Bullion Vault in the London vaults of Loomis (mostly in Feltham and a small amount in Shepperton) was 478,474.795 kgs, which is 15,383,322 ozs or 478.5 tonnes. The link to Bullion Vault silver holdings in London is here.

SImilarly, on 5 February, the reported silver holdings of Gold Money in the London LBMA vaults (Loomis) was 212,765.5 kgs, which is 6,840,570 ozs or 212.8 tonnes. The link to Gold Money silver holdings in London is here.

Together the silver holdings of Bullion Vault and Gold Money in London LBMA vaults total 691.3 tonnes.

SLV – iShares Silver Trust
Now, if you have digested all of that, let’s look at SLV.
As of end of day 5 February 2021, SLV claims to hold a massive 654,726,423 ozs of silver (20,364.74 tonnes).
Recently, the SLV bar list has been 1 day behind the stated SLV totals. And so the SLV bar list as of end of day Friday 5 February shows SLV’s claimed holdings as of end of day Thursday 4 February, which were a claimed 659,278,427.9 ozs of silver (20,505.85 tonnes) in the form of 675,425 silver bars.
SLV’s bar list is mammoth and runs to 10561 pages, with a filesize of 27 MBs. Luckily, the first page contains all the vault data. Based on the 5 February bar list (which refers to 4 February silver holdings), SLV claims to hold silver over an incredible 7 vaults, 6 of which are in London.


Three of these vaults are operated by Brinks, two vaults are operated by JP Morgan (the SLV custodian), one vault operated by Malca-Amit, and one vault operated by Loomis.

The three Brinks vaults are Brinks London C, Brinks Premier Park (London), and Brinks Unit 7 in Radius Park (London).

Brinks (Premier Park) is located in an industrial estate called Premier Park, off Abbey Road in Park Royal, north-east London, and is actually down the road from the G4S vault which is at 291 Abbey Road, Park Royal. Brinks unit 7 is, as the name suggests in Unit 7 of the industrial park near Hatton Cross tube station, beside Heathrow Airport. Brinks London C could also possibly be in Radius Park, as Brinks occupies a number units in Radius Park, such as units 1 and 3. But Brinks London C could be elsewhere. Note, SLV used to store some of its silver in Brinks London A, back about 7 – 10 years ago.
The JP Morgan London vault is referred to by SLV as JPM London V (which is the same vault as other ETFs use). This may be the JP Morgan vault under John Carpenter St/ Carmelite St in the City of London . Note, SLV used to store some of its silver in a vault called JPM London A back in the day.
The JPM New York vault is under 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza in Manhattan. The Malca Amit vault is referred to as Malca Amit UK (MA) London. This Malca vault is located in Arena Parkway, Hounslow in London, near Heathrow Airport.

The Loomis vault is referred to as Loomis International (UK) Ltd (VIAMAT) London, in Feltham, London, near Heathrow Airport.
Looking at the SLV bar list for 4 February, and the silver holdings distribution by vault, a few things jump out.
• Only 27% of the claimed SLV silver is located in the JP Morgan vaults (the custodian vaults). A full 73% of SLV silver is held in the vaults of custodians.
• Brinks vaults now claim to hold 48% of SLV silver, the Malca Amit vault holds 22%, and Loomis holds 3%.
• Between 29 January and 5 February, 2854 tonnes of silver was claimed (by JP Morgan) to have been added to SLV. Exactly 50% of this silver was claimed to appear in the Brinks Premier Park vault, 18% in the Brinks Radius Park unit 7 vault, and 22% in the Loomis vault, with only 6% from the JP Morgan vault, and only 3% from the Malca-Amit vault
• Between the same dates there was no change in the SLV silver claimed to be held in Brinks vault C, nor in JP Morgan vault New York (see below)
• As recently as 30 January, there were only 5 vaults listed on the SLV bar list. On that day, Brinks Radius Park was not listed nor was the Loomis vault.
• The Loomis vault only appeared on the SLV bar list on 3 February. The Brinks Radius Park unit 7 vault only appeared on the SLV bar list on 2 February.
• JP Morgan, the SLV custodian, has had to heavily tap Brinks (specifically Brinks Premier Park vault and Brinks Radius Park vault) and Loomis’ vault for the bulk of the claimed silver inflows
• The Brinks Premier Park vault now claims to hold 31% of all SLV silver, followed by 14% for the Brinks London C vault, and 3% for the Brinks Radius Park Unit 7 vault.
• Of the 27% of SLV’s claimed silver located in JP Morgan vaults, this is distributed as 11% in JP Morgan London vault and 16% in JP Morgan New York vault.
A Note about SLV and COMEX


Since the big dollar inflows into SLV beginning on 29 January, the silver inventory claimed to be in the JP Morgan New York vault, i.e. 103,176,253 ozs (3,209.21 tonnes) in the form of 102,837 silver bars, has not changed at all.

Furthermore, all silver bars claimed to be held by SLV are in the form of Good Delivery silver bars (usually about 1000 oz in weight). All the SLV silver claimed to be in the JP Morgan New York vault will be in the form of 1000 oz bars.

The flagship silver futures contract on COMEX is the SI 5000 oz contract which is deliverable as 5 * 1000 oz silver bars in COMEX approved vaults in New York.
Currently, as of end of day 5 February, the COMEX daily silver inventory report shows the JP Morgan New York vault as containing 152,946,614.74 ozs (4757.28 tonnes) of Eligible silver. Exactly 103,176,253 ozs (3,209.21 tonnes) of this silver belongs to SLV. Therefore, on the COMEX silver vault report under JP Morgan’s Eligible category, there is only 49,770,361.74 ozs (1548 tonnes) which does not belong to SLV. Something that many people probably never thought of before.

So any calculation of available silver on COMEX has to take this SLV silver into account.

Conclusion
If the above 14 ETFs see continued investment inflows, they will all have to compete for the available silver in London which is not already held within these ETFs. And that available silver is at an historic low, some 3000 tonnes or so. A few more days of inflows like the ones seen over 29 January to 2 February would be a major emergency for these ETF providers, particularly the iShares SLV. Because there is just not that much physical silver left in the vaults of JP Morgan, Brinks, Malca-Amit, Loomis and HSBC, which is not already reported as being in these ETFs.

And lets not forget all the unallocated silver positions which are outstanding which are claims against the bullion banks for silver which they have not got. Anyone with deep enough pockets could now cause a serious run on the remaining available silver stored in London that is not currently attributed to the above ETFs.

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