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The Swamp

  • #81,101
  • Edited 4:53am Feb 2, 2021 4:40am | Edited 4:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} this one is above the last 12h (day), and neckline.
neckline poked now. It needs to hold the neckline mostly.. Start closing an h above 2074, maybe even 2071, may fail hs. Just in case, I leave 2200 pending. I'm not seeing any meaningful past support till under 1.199x.. I do see a place at 2018.5, but it wasn't support the last past. That neckline may be retested at 2051 ish. I usually dont follow the hs and crowd. If the neckline is retested. Be careful if it .closes an h or so above 2074.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,102
  • Feb 2, 2021 4:40am Feb 2, 2021 4:40am
Quoting Boulder
what just happened.. unfortunately I have no Eur shorts.... sideline atm... EUr , the lowest since early Dec
*Euro Falls to 2-Month Low of $1.2038 - FactSet

Guess no news..Eur just under too much pressure, seeing bulls can't break H1 downtrend stop 1.2090 early
  • #81,103
  • Feb 2, 2021 4:45am Feb 2, 2021 4:45am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I think more chop and uncertainty on the horizon for a while yet. Dems and Republicans a long way apart on stimulus. Republicans will continue to blame Dems, and accuse them of not trying to unite what they divided. Trump impeachment trial coming. More Dem vs. Republican. And the market also seems to be uncertain whether US stimulus will be positive or negative for $US. The usual destabilizing activity in Asia and always virus news. The only thing I'm sure of is that I'm not sure of anything.
The stimulus is coming one way or the other. Mostly in the 1.9 trillion range. The GOP is not needed. The 2019 budget was never closed. Part of the last legacy. If it was left open. Congress can close it with a simply majority. 2020 was also left open.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,104
  • Feb 2, 2021 4:50am Feb 2, 2021 4:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} neckline poked now. It needs to hold the neckline mostly.. Start closing an h above 2074 maybe even 2071 may fail hs. Just in case, I leave 2200 pending. I'm not seeing any meaningful past support till under 1.199x.. I do see a place at 2018.5, but it wasn't support the last past. That neckline may be retested at 2051 ish. I usually dont follow the hs and crowd. If the neckline is retested. Be careful if it .closes an h or so above 2074.
Minor to 2018.5 is 2028.5, but for entertainment value only.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,105
  • Feb 2, 2021 4:55am Feb 2, 2021 4:55am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I think more chop and uncertainty on the horizon for a while yet. Dems and Republicans a long way apart on stimulus. Republicans will continue to blame Dems, and accuse them of not trying to unite what they divided. Trump impeachment trial coming. More Dem vs. Republican. And the market also seems to be uncertain whether US stimulus will be positive or negative for $US. The usual destabilizing activity in Asia and always virus news. The only thing I'm sure of is that I'm not sure of anything.
1974 Control Act
https://budget.house.gov/publication...does-it-matter
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,106
  • Feb 2, 2021 4:56am Feb 2, 2021 4:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Minor to 2018.5 is 2028.5, but for enertaint value only. {image}
Eur crossed two Ru levels so far.

RU R1 1.2082
RU S1 1.2038
RU S2 1.2016
RU S3 1.1980
Day range low 1.2008
  • #81,107
  • Feb 2, 2021 5:01am Feb 2, 2021 5:01am
Same as Eur.. Swiss bulls just took back H1... bullish...
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  • #81,108
  • Feb 2, 2021 5:04am Feb 2, 2021 5:04am
Back to bed.. nothing for me to do now but wait.. see you after US open...
  • #81,109
  • Feb 2, 2021 5:06am Feb 2, 2021 5:06am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Eur crossed two Ru levels so far. RU R1 1.2082 RU S1 1.2038 RU S2 1.2016 RU S3 1.1980 Day range low 1.2008
nothing but air below 2050 (till 1987ish), on the way up. I dont know if 2018 or 28 will affect it much. It usually will retest 2051ish again from below. On that retest, is where it sometimes moves/fails.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,110
  • Feb 2, 2021 6:06am Feb 2, 2021 6:06am
possible sell 2050ish area. Some R 2053,58/71-74. You want it to drop below 2051 and stay. Closing back above the tl is not a good sign. R/R wise, a HS completed is around 1760. It may be worth the Risk to short 2050ish. Tp near 300 pips
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,111
  • Feb 2, 2021 7:27am Feb 2, 2021 7:27am
Quoting gatorinla
possible sell 2050ish area. Some R 2053,58/71-74. You want it to drop below 2051 and stay. Closing back above the tl is not a good sign. R/R wise, a HS completed is around 1760. It may be worth the Risk to short 2050ish. Tp near 300 pips

Sometimes those neck line re tests don't happen until a few days after a break. Sometimes it may turn and go back for a test within hours of break down. Not sure what the textbooks think which is a better retest, but as far as I'm concerned, I think a break that drops for a couple of days before the retest has a better chance of getting rejected on retest. This one could just be intraday blip

I'm sidelined today after my pending got stopped before I even knew it was activated.

1974 Control Act
https://budget.house.gov/publication...does-it-matter complicated piece of work....no wonder the wheels turn slowly
  • #81,112
  • Feb 2, 2021 8:56am Feb 2, 2021 8:56am
In
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #81,113
  • Feb 2, 2021 8:58am Feb 2, 2021 8:58am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Sometimes those neck line re tests don't happen until a few days after a break. Sometimes it may turn and go back for a test within hours of break down. Not sure what the textbooks think which is a better retest, but as far as I'm concerned, I think a break that drops for a couple of days before the retest has a better chance of getting rejected on retest. This one could just be intraday blip I'm sidelined today after my pending got stopped before I even knew it was activated. 1974 Control Act https://budget.house.gov/publication...does-it-matter...
if you place a pending, it dont matter when it happens. I dont see much past support till below 1.2. I do have some perceived at 1216/18 ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,114
  • Feb 2, 2021 9:02am Feb 2, 2021 9:02am
Quoting ill_be_back
In {image}
Join you short some Swiss here 0.8986.. not good entry,,,
  • #81,115
  • Feb 2, 2021 9:03am Feb 2, 2021 9:03am
Quoting gatorinla
possible sell 2050ish area. Some R 2053,58/71-74. You want it to drop below 2051 and stay. Closing back above the tl is not a good sign. R/R wise, a HS completed is around 1760. It may be worth the Risk to short 2050ish. Tp near 300 pips
if in, not much to do on a swing. maybe B.e. it.. take a little profit to pay for lunch.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,116
  • Feb 2, 2021 9:22am Feb 2, 2021 9:22am
fyi

Citi discusses EUR/USD outlook and flags a scope for further downside on a close below 1.2050.
"EURUSD supports around 1.2050-60 have held since late last year, but are now being breached. Note that there is no headlines to drive this - the only headline we had earlier was Eurozone GDP for Q4, which is not usually a market mover. Besides, there was a small beat relative to Bloomberg consensus expectations (-0.7%QoQ vs -0.9% consensus forecasts). Of course, there remain concerns about the vaccine rollout but this is not new news," Citi notes.
"A daily close below would suggest extended losses towards 1.1750 -1.1800 according to CitiFX Technicals Before that, we may see some pause around 1.1960-1.2000 with the 100d MA and a pivot level in the past," Citi adds.
  • #81,117
  • Feb 2, 2021 9:38am Feb 2, 2021 9:38am
Quoting ill_be_back
In {image}
I dont know if we are on the same page or not. Our number is close. I could lower 2018 to 2008 maybe. These levels are below where COT longs where placed. I see the big HS etc.
Corona weakened the USD. The USD may be 0n the way back, since we take it serious now. The HS suggest 1.17xx. If coved is the catalyst, the next sentence will be wrong. Between the last 2 big S/R lies 2018, possible support. 1679/2358. Evidently you see something here too.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,118
  • Feb 2, 2021 10:08am Feb 2, 2021 10:08am
On the daily we are just touching down on upward trend channel made by May 14th breakout from consolidation and Nov 3rd (Election Day) volatility. I would prefer that 1.2020 held so I don't have to trade against COT traders.
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  • #81,119
  • Feb 2, 2021 11:00am Feb 2, 2021 11:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont know if we are on the same page or not. Our number is close. I could lower 2018 to 2008 maybe. These levels are below where COT longs where placed. I see the big HS etc. Corona weakened the USD. The USD may be 0n the way back, since we take it serious now. The HS suggest 1.17xx. If coved is the catalyst, the next sentence will be wrong. Between the last 2 big S/R lies 2018, possible support. 1679/2358. Evidently you see something here too. {image}
Testing 2018x now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #81,120
  • Feb 2, 2021 11:05am Feb 2, 2021 11:05am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Eur crossed two Ru levels so far. RU R1 1.2082 RU S1 1.2038 RU S2 1.2016 RU S3 1.1980 Day range low 1.2008
So close those figures,, will big bulls defend them or show up ?
Looking ahead,, tonight all Eur PMI news.. I used to not fond of those news when I shorted Eur..
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