Trading Institutional Order Flow

EURGBP 4H

Nice valid supply here. Good shorting opportunity.

Closed out in the red.

Hi All. Maybe a little downer on this thread..... but the Supply and Demand taught the way it is, it doesn't work. I studied S and D for quite some time and I tried to make it work, went through different so called "mentors" regarding s and d and I ended up in Red all the time, I did hundreds of tests on forextester and there is no way you can be profitable. If any of the S and D gurus will get defensive here, show me your Live Account with the last 100 or more trades and I will shut up (if you are in Green), pretty simple. Yes I am very pissed off writing this because I'm tired of people trying to sucker others to join their communities or paid courses (I paid $$$ for them) It's like people follow them no matter what and get defensive when somebody asks them for the proof of trading account. If you are making so much money, why would you need to sell courses? selling the system or strategy will put your own trading at risk. Why Hedge Fund managers don't share their trading strategy, because they don't want to risk the exposure. It's like a banker posting the exact way their trade on the "floor". I had to get this off my chest,The S and D has its merits but not on it's own, you need to come up with your own strategy do countless hours of studying the charts to see what works and what doesn't work for you, as soon as you find it and it makes you money, don't share with anybody because it's your own hard work you have put in and why would you let anyone to be at the same levels as you just because they paid for the information. Again if anybody will get defensive, show me your trading journals and I will publicly apologize here on this forum......

go ahead and do it yourself. Mark all the zones on the daily for the past 2 years and see how many of them actually worked......I did it and the maths don't lie, only 20% of them worked. You go to the weekly chart and you can actually see all the zones from 2008 and guess what they don't work.

So I am starting from scratch...... unfortunately, I wasted couple of years....

Pipstrader, I understand your pain as a trader and I can relate with your words. I have been trading for 13 years and I must say the FX market is the most Bizarre and most difficult thing to do. For every solution you think you get, the market tends to pose 3 more difficulties. I do not know your approach to S and D. But of all the strategies I know and I have seen, S and D is a leading indicator to get u in the market and to let u know when its failed on time and get you out. All the times I had issue in trading it was because I was either selling into a demand zone or buying into a supply zone.

You need to have a MTF analysis approach in S and D to be able to get the best of this strategy. And not everyone is self centered to keep what works in this market to their chest.

Like you have right fully said one has to find what works best for him and the approach he must use to come out on top using this approach. I can say from the wealth of my experience that there are a lot of scammers, liars etc as you have said. But I can also affirm that S and D zones are like a compass in trading this market.

Every strategy has its own merits and demerits. In my opinion the 2 challenges that the S and D has and I will be very candid as you are a practical man like me is this:
1. What does one do when the zones are broken and price does not bounce off the zone as expected.

2. What S and D Zones are more reliable than others. I think this is what AKT has been trying to explain. I think if this is sorted out, it would be great.

I have messaged AKT on here and a message to the storehouse email about his course to understand it better since he is giving a promo in this month of January. But he is yet to answer. In my opinion, S and D Zones are the compass to this wild market and yes I have traded them with a great deal of success. I have failed when I did not apply them to my trading and I can show you what i mean and how I use them. But I am still trying to get more knowledge.

Hi Sokysoks, Yes I needed to get it off my chest and actually I'm surprised by your answer (thanks for not slamming my response). I don't want to name people who I trained with as I don't want to be banned on here. However, people I trained with never showed me their real trades it was always theory and no action. Every time after I started having some doubts about their methods I was asking for recent trades examples and they never came through. It all looks great in theory, because you can always find a reason why the particular zone didn't work, there is always a way to come up with an excuse. I had numerous examples where I asked about a zone that they previously marked and apparently took the trade from, but when it didn't work they always said "oh yes, because the HTF was in control" "the market was overextended" or "news came out" etc. All I see is historic price action and that's what annoys me.

However, I'm just like you I know that anything that revolves around money is a direct result of Supply and Demand, whenever this is Automotive Market or you buy and sell oranges for a living, the cycle doesn't change. I am actually starting backwards now, on daily basis I am going through different charts and I apply different techniques in conjunction with S and D to see if there is any significant change in performance (backtesting). I also use a common sense to tell myself why would something work and why something wouldn't work. Indicators are out of question it is all driven by price so they are useless, if indicators are driven by price what is driving the price? well it is supply and demand, but who is driving the supply and demand in forex (hedge fund and institutions), how are they thinking what are their techniques of accumulating the positions at current price levels.... I am going through a set of different questions I ask myself daily and that's they way I approach it.

My approach to trading S and D is as it taught generally, MTF is a must, Zones in Control, Trends, Price Action, Strength of the zones, departure, arrivals, profit margin and everything else. Believe I have written more than 5 trading plans (few A4 pages) with the set of rules. I know what you are saying regarding that some people are unselfish, but if they are really that unselfish and they don't care about money being made why would you sell something that is not backed up by a proper trading results.

Correct me if I'm wrong (common sense) - Let's say you are well off and you are a full time trader who makes $25k - $30k per month trading. Would you sacrifice your own trading time to make $1k or $2k selling courses on the internet, would you have time to run a community where you have to be active on daily basis? I don't think it'd be worth it, because in that time you just missed a trade that would net you a even bigger sum of money.

However let's say you feel generous and you want to give back to community and you want people to make money, if all of a sudden a lot of people will be trading the same way that you are and all those people are making the same amount of money multiply that by thousands of people, you are running into a danger of putting your strategy at risk of not working and at the same time you won't be making any money at all. Another scenario is you really want to teach someone, you would need to charge the same amount of money as you'd be loosing your own trading time. So if you are making 25k or 30k per month you'd need to charge at least 90k for mentorship as it wouldn't take 1 month to actually train somebody.... Anyway...... I am going to stop ranting at those so called Gurus.

Going back to the methodology. I know it works but it is not the way is taught, I am searching for those patterns right now and hopefully I can notice something in the markets that will make sense, the actual reason why some of the zones work or not. You can't just take the Daily or a Weekly zone that's in line with the trend or just because a HTF is in control of prices, I had trades where the market was in perfect condition to take long or short (all the rules have been met) and it didn't work and you can't just say that "well sometimes it doesn't work" for every action there is a reason.

Pipstrader 105, you are beginning to think and look in the right direction and ask the right questions. In my opinion, the best chart to get a general overview about what's going on in the market is D1. In my opinion the market makers are looking at specific prices and we see those prices as zones.

The integrity of those zones are determined by the market maker that is influenced by Fundamental analysis and because alot of retail traders are technical traders with little or no understanding about fundamentals, they are always at a loss as to where price is going.

For me the zones on D1 that have held for years will always follow Newton's first law which states that, if a body is at rest or moving at a constant speed in a straight line, it will remain at rest or keep moving in a straight line at constant speed unless it is acted upon by an external force. If status quo remains the same the zones will still hold not unless something extra ordinary happens then those zones will be broken. For instance the United States Dollar has been weak. Especially during the uncertainty from the elections that lingered and with no hope of stimulus in the near future. One can know any zone that is to hold indicating USD strength will be broken cos no one will be buying the dollar. So one must look for selling opportunities for the Dollar. And this will have ripple effect on JPY and CHF which are Risk off currencies like the dollar.

Another thing a trader has to have in his tool kit when trading S and D zones is the knowledge of Risk off and Risk on. The key to the whole market is the United States Dollar, in my humble opinion.

Another thing that will help in your trading the S and D zones is your knowledge of how to use the contrarian strategy.

Lastly, I do not think anyone should be bashed for their opinion especially when they sound reasonable.

If anyone has access to AKT and if he sees my post, please I want to get a copy of your course. Thanks

Hello Mike, All ,
I noticed a new downtrend on weekly XAUXAG chart, plus an uptrend on XAGEUR daily chart. ( XAGUSD supply is respected ...).
I am watching EURUSD with this idea too,
And for my favorite forex pair GBPNZD ,watching a decent profit margin for longs ,
Happy trades ,
H.

Week Starting 1st Feb 2021

Anticipation of next week scenario for EUR/USD - Consolidate and make low the week on Monday / Tuesday and then a sharp move up to absorb liqudity above in the premium market . Then move sharply downwards from high of the week on Wednesday / Thursday to set up the sell on the weekly TF. This is supported by seasonals, futures data - only technicals need to be in place now.

Short term US government bonds already showing lower yields for shorter horizon, compared to Bund. USDx should show signs of strength as well. Oil, Gold, NYSE etc. (or some of them) may plunge during the course of the week.

Be careful mate.. I asked for proof to the gurus in this thread long time ago, and I got slammed by many people..

Anything could do.. myfxbook track record, trade explorer.. anything. BUT they just gave many excuses on why they didn't want to show their "good" results..

The reality is: The concept of S/D trading ain't bad... But the risk managment, which is the most important.. Meaning, how to keep your capital safe calculating risk on long term... they have no freaken clue how that works.
Like you said.. They know the theory, that's easy... But whenever a trade goes wrong, they will give you many explanations on how you made a "mistake" ... still no proof.

As per plan, Have entered a buy order on EUR / USD. Filled in at 1.2092. Need to baby sit this till NY session.

Mate you buying against the big picture in a used/not fresh level. That's risky

Pipstrader i understand your pain, I had a lot of difficulties understanding or seeing how it works especially when i tried the much lower time frame entries its quite tricky i am no guru and not even aspiring to be just want to make my money of the markets and bounce but if i am totally honest from all my back tests and actual trading i have understood SnD quite well and i believe there is a sense of ease and comfort on the Weekly,Daily,H4 and H1 charts anything lower for me would be hectic and emotional. But of it all the strategy is only part of what makes your trading successful you need to really have some sort of trade management method and keep your risk consistent otherwise it would be futile
I started January on the lower time frames and hated myself for doing that, inconsistent risk and i literally lost up to 10% of my account in two weeks
I decided to stick to my daily,H1 combo and risk only 1% targeting 1:2 and Honestly wished i had done that from the start of the month, ended the month +1% after making back that 10

Its a struggle just do not give up no matter what strategy you find comfortable SnD or not.
Have a Safe week

Currently In a Sell on EURAUD H1TF Off H1 RBD in Daily Supply

Hello Traders,
Is my ML correct? Comments are highly appreciable. Thank you.

Hi AKT and S.A.D traders,
Is this a good demand zone ? I am concerned about the wick of the large candle.

Varma, It is a good demand zone but bear in Mind price is currently in a daily supply resting in weekly supply, Possible counter trend trade on H1 with confirmation entry and low risk

Thank you Phinny!!

First time posting, I been doing my best to trade supply and demand for a while. Trade I’m in now -

Usd/chf- sell trade was triggered where I marked the blue line at a decent daily imbalance.

Also another trade I’m in also for a nice long at a daily imbalance on the chf/sgd nested around a weekly imbalance.

Hi AKT and S.A.D Traders,
Here is my analysis of CHFJPY. Love to see comments on this. Thank you.
1. Daily ML broken and SZ created
2. Trend is sideways
3. Price is approaching daily supply zone
4. Higher probability is to look for sell
5. Came to my entry TF which is H1, wherein the extreme of the zone I found a RBD supply zone where I placed my sell limit order which is a set and forget trade, would also play confirmation entry for this.
6. Below are the chart. Thank you.

Quick question guys.

Previously I was cancelling my pending orders once price moved what I though was too far, but couldnt seem to find a way of judging how far was too far.

I did notice the question asked maybe twice in the thread but dont think I could find a "mechanical" way to judge this.

But I did notice on Dendens youtube backtest, and some of Moneyball Austins videos that the pending order is left on for quite a while.

This is an order I set on Monday On H1, I was going to cancel it yesterday, but thought I would leave it as price had not reached D1 Demand.

The trade is an H1 Confirmation entry from D1 supply. You guys reckon it would be wise to have cancelled it earlier, or would it still be valid. (its still active atm)

Update: Triggered into it today

Cheers