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The Swamp

  • #80,661
  • Jan 24, 2021 1:27am Jan 24, 2021 1:27am
there is an EA that shows fantastically good bactest results.
the tp is only 5 pips.
but sometimes it produces huge drawdowns.
so it cannot be used even though the results are very good.
  • #80,662
  • Jan 24, 2021 1:32am Jan 24, 2021 1:32am
Quoting tiborf71
there is an EA that shows fantastically good bactest results. the tp is only 5 pips. but sometimes it produces huge drawdowns. so it cannot be used even though the results are very good.
And of course it uses trailing stop...
I am who I am
  • #80,663
  • Jan 24, 2021 8:53am Jan 24, 2021 8:53am
Quoting imwim
{quote} This is the DAX scalper with the same results live and backtesting in current month...it is not sensitive to any History Quality (it have significant SL and TP levels, no any trailing stop)... The MT4 backtesting for last 10 months is still unrealistic (it increase/decrease the lot size as soon as the balance increases/decreases, it starts with 0.1 lots at 1k initial balance) because the last 3 months is at no any growth: {image} {image}
3 months? look at a day, week, monthly chart and see if you see why it was working then. See what has changed now. The ea may work seasonally. It may just be curve fitted. It may be garbage. I cant tell you why. You need to figure it out. I purposely took my time, to test a dozen years. Then I tested each year. Later I test 1/4s. And even some individual months. It may slow at times. Overall it looks good. The only real test that matters is irl. All ea's should be tested over time. Most are curve fit by people. That's a flaw in back testing by the individual. Change is the one thing that is a sure thing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,664
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:07am Jan 24, 2021 9:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 3 months? look at a day, week, monthly chart and see if you see why it was working then. See what has changed now. The ea may work seasonally. It may just be curve fitted. It may be garbage. I cant tell you why. You need to figure it out. I purposely took my time, to test a dozen years. Then I tested each year. Later I test 1/4s. And even some individual months. It may slow at times. Overall it looks good. The only real test that matters is irl. All ea's should be tested over time. Most are curve fit by people. That's a flaw in back testing...
The EA have nothing with curve fitted, no any optimised parameters...it works well on crisis times like Covid histeria in March 2020...65M in a month at 1k initial account balance...
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I am who I am
  • #80,665
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:16am Jan 24, 2021 9:16am
Quoting imwim
{quote} The EA have nothing with curve fitted, no any optimised parameters...it works well on crisis times like Covid histeria in March 2020...65M in a month at 1k initial account balance... {image}
it looks like garbage to me. Once some commission is added, it trades near negative. Correct me if I'm wrong.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,666
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:25am Jan 24, 2021 9:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it looks like garbage to me. Once some commission is added, it trades near negative. Correct me if I'm wrong. {image}
For DAX, the spread 80 points is the all cost and it's fixed on Admiral Markets...which makes the live and backtesting to be the same...on live the slippage on TP/SL compensates each other...
I am who I am
  • #80,667
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:31am Jan 24, 2021 9:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it looks like garbage to me. Once some commission is added, it trades near negative. Correct me if I'm wrong. {image}
With slippage, 3% on a scalper may be too small. It could be other things. I dont know. Your testing with Dukoscopy, who is your broker? Using a VPN?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,668
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:36am Jan 24, 2021 9:36am
Quoting imwim
{quote} For DAX, the spread 80 points is the all cost and it's fixed on Admiral Markets...which makes the live and backtesting to be the same...on live the slippage on TP/SL compensates each other...
They compensate in theory. Where price goes first is what matters. If you trading using a oscillator (reversal) for entry. The momentum may hit your stop first.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,669
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:39am Jan 24, 2021 9:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} With slippage, 3% on a scalper may be too small. It could be other things. I dont know. Your testing with Dukoscopy, who is your broker? Using a VPN? {image}
This is not the DAX scalper, it's just a MT5 test of another algo...MT5 real ticks are from ICMarkets, and testing with Dukascopy is on a new instrument copied from EURUSD and filled with Dukascopy ticks 86% History Quality...
I am who I am
  • #80,670
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:46am Jan 24, 2021 9:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} They compensate in theory. Where price goes first is what matters. If you trading using a oscillator (reversal) for entry. The momentum may hit your stop first.
The DAX scalper don't use any indicator, and the momentum is his algo itself...when hit the SL is always good as the RR ratio is nice greater than 1...
I am who I am
  • #80,671
  • Jan 24, 2021 9:46am Jan 24, 2021 9:46am
Quoting imwim
{quote} For DAX, the spread 80 points is the all cost and it's fixed on Admiral Markets...which makes the live and backtesting to be the same...on live the slippage on TP/SL compensates each other...
try optimizing your trading hours to just a few best hours. The 65/75% should be ok. You dont have to make a billion trades to make money. Cut the hours down to those best trading hours. It may not be the hours you think. Optimize them to the least hours that are best. Even if it just a few quality trades per day. If the quality in real trading improves your profit. You can always increase the size. You can make more money with less trades. If the trades are a better quality.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,672
  • Edited 3:02pm Jan 24, 2021 10:08am | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} try optimizing your trading hours to just a few best hours. The 65/75% should be ok. You dont have to make a billion trades to make money. Cut the hours down to those best trading hours. It may not be the hours you think. Optimize them to the least hours that are best. Even if it just a few quality trades per day. If the quality in real trading improves your profit. You can always increase the size. You can make more money with less trades. If the trades are a better quality.
For now, the 80 points spread is the only extern condition to enter a trade as best time (no any optimisation required)...DAX cannot be manipulated like Forex is, and I'm afraid that looking for best hours will be just the 1st step to looking for Moving Averages support/resistance, Bollinger Bands, etc...

Btw the algo is just an incipient version of partitions, and any chart's time frame or trading hours relates to partitions...in other words, partitions are the real non-lagged price action...
I am who I am
  • #80,673
  • Jan 24, 2021 10:10pm Jan 24, 2021 10:10pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} For now, the 80 points spread is the only extern condition to enter a trade as best time (no any optimisation required)...DAX cannot be manipulated like Forex is, and I'm afraid that looking for best hours will be just the 1st step to looking for Moving Averages support/resistance, Bollinger Bands, etc... Btw the algo is just an incipient version of partitions, and any chart's time frame or trading hours relates to partitions...in other words, partitions are the real non-lagged price action...
How is that working for you? You may be right. But will not know until, you question/test your beliefs. I bet there 2 or 3 hours that ea works best. I bet there is 2 or 3 hours it averages 80+%. That would mean some hours traded is less than 70%. I'm just guessing from experience.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,674
  • Jan 25, 2021 12:16am Jan 25, 2021 12:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} How is that working for you? You may be right. But will not know until, you question/test your beliefs. I bet there 2 or 3 hours that ea works best. I bet there is 2 or 3 hours it averages 80+%. That would mean some hours traded is less than 70%. I'm just guessing from experience.
Look at it as a whole there are 9 pairs + to watch if the settings match on multiple pair simultaneously then flag that pattern then calculate a % downward when its not.
if 9:00EST = 9 pairs align then use it.
if 9:00EST = 7 pairs align then (cross play is open)
if 9:00EST = 4 pairs align then - what happened and flag it.. (A small database will allow you to see patterns)(cross play is not present ranging)
Use everything but understand it means nothing..
if you are using an 800 moving average or 600 moving average on multiple pairs on another pair it they by at the 100 or 200 the high or low and the 100 and 200 will have meaning and then the 800 with have meaning on another pair .. if EU is at the high and UJ is at the Low will Both pair pull back or will one wait for the other meaning if EU hits the high in 15 to 30 minutes will UJ hit the low if its near? What cycle is being presented if London does 2 moves we know that we will range and the pattern will maifest in other pairs the next day.. did time have meaning? moving average? high or low?
Just some thoughts of a bored trader..
  • #80,675
  • Edited 12:50am Jan 25, 2021 12:30am | Edited 12:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} How is that working for you? You may be right. But will not know until, you question/test your beliefs. I bet there 2 or 3 hours that ea works best. I bet there is 2 or 3 hours it averages 80+%. That would mean some hours traded is less than 70%. I'm just guessing from experience.
Indeed, after a tight range for hours, the volatility really goes crazy and it's the best time for scalping with a fixed spread like on DAX...

I recommend you to check your EA on DAX with a fixed spread of 80 points like on Admiral Markets...
I am who I am
  • #80,676
  • Jan 25, 2021 3:25am Jan 25, 2021 3:25am
Quoting imwim
{quote} Indeed, after a tight range for hours, the volatility really goes crazy and it's the best time for scalping with a fixed spread like on DAX... I recommend you to check your EA on DAX with a fixed spread of 80 points like on Admiral Markets...
some of the ea/s have a day of the week to trade. One could for instance, optimize Thursday's best times. etc. A pattern may be seen where you could just trade a certain way, on Thursday 1200/1400, and make 95% on this optimized setting. You could have the best ea in the world and not know it. The more information you have, the better. Playing around with the times optimization could revel some deep patterns. Particular day patterns. even monthly like NFP patterns may show up. You Could have just a Monday ea set different than the Tuesday ea. The same ea with a slight different setting. You may have to lock yourself in a room for weeks+ to figure it out. The ea may be garbage, or it may just be the settings timing. It may be a great ea.

A spread filter may help.

You may change the M#, and have a different set for each day of the week.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #80,677
  • Jan 25, 2021 3:41am Jan 25, 2021 3:41am
Good morning, Eur is testing H1uptrend stop 1.2161, lets see bulls can hold, 20 mins to go..
  • #80,678
  • Jan 25, 2021 3:44am Jan 25, 2021 3:44am
Swiss datapoints atm,
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  • #80,679
  • Jan 25, 2021 4:05am Jan 25, 2021 4:05am
Quoting Boulder
Good morning, Eur is testing H1uptrend stop 1.2161, lets see bulls can hold, 20 mins to go..
Euro Bears reversed H1 trend, with H4 still in uptrend, time for choppy trading before FOMC coming up this Wednesday
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  • #80,680
  • Jan 25, 2021 4:12am Jan 25, 2021 4:12am
I have not done much with Eur, highest short I have around here 1.2150, maybe its time for me to look for some scalp trades.
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