{quote} I'll try and post something this week. Basically though, I'm bullish on pound sterling and bearish on the US dollar. Anything in particular you would like me to have a look at?
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so, will DXY is going to fall too this year to 79 - 80 ?
what about Gold ?
That's very nice. Thanks. Me trading E/U and NatGas. So Dollar relatet stuff would be nice. Best Chriss
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Let's look at E/U first. This is obviously a long term projection for 2021. There is a strong diversion pattern at the moment on the 2 day chart which may mean E/U will fall a bit in the shorter term, so through Jan/Feb. I'll post a chart shot of that if it is of interest to you, but the monthly chart, looks to have it climbing up to around 1.26 or so. On the chart, you will see the two green arrows on the left, which show how strong the 200 simple moving average has been in providing support, first in 2010, then again in 2012, but then was smashed in 2014, which I expected due to a more bearish moving average configuration with my other moving averages.
Then follow the 200sma ( red/purple dash ) and see how it sent the price back down in the early part of 2018, and it also had help from the 100sma ( dark blue falling dash ) to make this a particularly powerful resistance zone.
Now, the 200sma is not far above, at around 1.26, and if the price gets there, this may provide pretty tough resistance, especially as the 61.8% fib sits right on top of it, as it also did in early 2018. However, my other moving averages are in a much more bullish configuration now than they were in 2018, when they were bearish, so the price may well break through the 1.26 level and head towards the 76.4% fib level @ 1.31, pushing maybe even higher, though I'll stop the projected level at the 76.4%.
Regarding the dollar index, I am bearish for 2021, but there is some potential support to look at for some time this year if it gets there, and I will show you that with my next post here later this week or over the weekend.
Hi,
thanks a lot for your time to write it down. This is very interesting, especially to see how it will work out.
As you have written one year ago, watching the chart for a longterm technical view, if price of E/U goes up that way - one of the two big economic areas will have great changes within the coming year. So the technical analysis might able to forecast macroeconomic behavior.
{quote} Hi, thanks a lot for your time to write it down. This is very interesting, especially to see how it will work out. As you have written one year ago, watching the chart for a longterm technical view, if price of E/U goes up that way - one of the two big economic areas will have great changes within the coming year. So the technical analysis might able to forecast macroeconomic behavior. Best Chriss
I'll also post my projected 2021 levels for Gold and natural gas within the next few days in response to requests for them.
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thank you very much brother.
but if i may ask again.
Could you please post your projection for AU , and NU also?
i'm very curious about these two currencies, but i think it should move together along with EU to reach the peak around 0.8 - 0.81 for AU and NZD 0.75 - 0.76..
Here's my stab at Gold for 2021. Big diversion pattern on the bi-monthly which I cannot ignore, and my moving averages suggest that we have seen the high, at least for the next year or so. Could be wrong of course. Not quite sure when exactly, as this is a very long-range prediction, but it looks like there may be a precipitous fall at some point, could be this year or next, with initially some relative sideways movement, moving back up perhaps to threaten the $2000 level, but not breaking clear of it before coming back down.
I personally would not be buying gold at this level as a long term investment, but I would be selling it if I was that kind of long term trader, which I am not.
{quote} thank you very much brother. but if i may ask again. Could you please post your projection for AU , and NU also? i'm very curious about these two currencies, but i think it should move together along with EU to reach the peak around 0.8 - 0.81 for AU and NZD 0.75 - 0.76.. Many thanks once again..
{quote} thank you very much brother. but if i may ask again. Could you please post your projection for AU , and NU also? i'm very curious about these two currencies, but i think it should move together along with EU to reach the peak around 0.8 - 0.81 for AU and NZD 0.75 - 0.76.. Many thanks once again..
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Here's AU.
Difficult one, because it has already found a big resistance area. Will it breakthrough to challenge 0.8 - 0.82, or will it break down and fall back? either are likely. If it pushes higher, watch 0.78 as I have resistance there.
I do think AU will appreciate against the dollar this year, but it may not be for a while. AU is bullish against the US dollar, but, there remains a big ? mark concerning the current resistance. I do not trade it, so will not be following its movement, but I can say that the US dollar is going to be weak across the board, so expect it to depreciate against most of the other major currencies in 2021.
{quote} yes, and I always appreciate experienced trader’s perspectives. What do you see happening on the Dow and S&P?
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This is the most difficult question of all. Both are screaming overbought and the price action is very reminiscent of any stock, index or forex pair shortly before a correction, but, and it is a big but, these are crazy times, and as long as the Fed keeps the printing presses running, can there really be any direction but up for 2021?
All one can do is what I do, which is trade these intra-day, because the shorter-term one analyses, the more accurate one is likely to be.
Long term though, the trend is up....until it isn't. With the way north clear ahead on the big time frames, one has to watch the sub-daily for signs that the markets may have topped.
{quote} This is the most difficult question of all. Both are screaming overbought and the price action is very reminiscent of any stock, index or forex pair shortly before a correction, but, and it is a big but, these are crazy times, and as long as the Fed keeps the printing presses running, can there really be any direction but up for 2021? All one can do is what I do, which is trade these intra-day, because the shorter-term one analyses, the more accurate one is likely to be. Long term though, the trend is up....until it isn't. With the way north...
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thanks
what about silver? I’m very bullish on silver.
I saw your post on gold. I’m more of a bull on gold for the next several years. I see us going beyond 2000 level this year making higher highs.
but we will see!
ps. Agree with weaker dollar and weakness will continue IMO as well
